I don't get why people always talk about years before they are a contender instead of players.
They have holes in the roster to fill. We don't know how many years it will take to do it.
They could do 3-4 trades between now and next season and fill most of them. Not saying it will happen, but you never know.
The
BOLDED phrase is a very good insight into building a roster.
I think a championship roster needs 11 strong players, maybe 10 if there is a superstar on the team., but we don't have one of those
The 11 are probably:
4 Top 3 forwards,
3 more top 6 forwards, one of whom anchors the 3rd line
3 top pair Ds; and
1 above .910 starting goalie.
Here is where I think the Habs are today:
Strong players now
Suzuki
Caufield
Dach
75% likelihood of becoming a top 11 player
Slafkovsky
Guhle
Matheson (75% chance he remains at least a #2 D)
2024 First round pick probably Top 8
50/50 possibility of becoming a top 11 player
Reinbacher
Newhook
Monahan (50% chance he remains at least a Top-6 F)
Montembeault or Fowler
25% possibility of becoming a top 11 player
Mesar
Hutson
Mailloux
one of the 2025 First round picks (25% chance he is a top-11 player in next 3 seasons)
Based on likelihood, we stand to have have about 9 strong players in 2-3 years, but it could be one or two less or more.
To improve our odds, we need a better than 50% chance at a starting goalie, another top-3 forward, and another top-2 D. These are the needs we should be shopping for.
From a cap management perspective, we have a large contingent of players vying for bottom 9 (plus 3 spares) roles who do/will not cost much.
Roy
Farrell
Heineman
Beck
RHP
Pezzetta
Ylonen
Condotta
Struble
Xhekaj
Barron
Kovacevic
Primeau
plus.....a couple of guys falling short of top-11 but not busts, especially one of the Gs
That should be enough to fill our needs, so all support players with expensive contracts should be moved:
to acquire more darts.
to have the money to pay the stars, and
to enable the roster strength to be sustainable
Therefore we should be ready to move, dump, or lose somehow most of these guys:
Pearson and Wideman (gone after this season)
Anderson
Dvorak
Evans (borderline, perhaps keep if he re-signs cheap)
Armia
Savard
Harris (unless he takes a jump forward)
Allen
Gallagher (very hard case unless he retires)