HF Habs: Trade Proposal Thread #86: 2023-2024 Season

[Mrb1p]

Indeed.

The picks tho have ended in Gulyayev and Gauthier.

A couple of guys you named are looking great (Rehkopf). There will statiscally speaking be some big hit after 31-37 but realistically we gave meh assets for a meh player.

Thats a very stupid way of looking at things. Your scouting staff is supposed to be the best in the business and being able to yield the best results. Those were all players I had ranked very high and that I wanted on draft day.

Its most likely going to be a failure.

 

[HuGort]

Edmonton could acquire the 2nd coming of a Patrick Roy/Dominic Hasek hybrid in his prime and still be a mediocre goalie with that shit show going on there.

Team defense sucks in general not just tne defense core per se.

Firepower Oilers have even with average goaltending they going to win a lot of games 7-5.

 

[Jaynki]

Thats a very stupid way of looking at things. Your scouting staff is supposed to be the best in the business and being able to yield the best results. Those were all players I had ranked very high and that I wanted on draft day.

Its most likely going to be a failure.

No we can only make one decision with our picks and statiscally speaking its a hit rate of 25% to have someone who will play 200 NHL games with those picks.

In hindsight, we can look back and identify ~8 players in the 2nd RD thats feels like hit and say what if we drafted them, f***ing newhook.

Its not how it works on the draft floor and when its time to make the pick.

Meh assets for a meh player. The greyest of grey trade.

Its most likely going to be a failure, not because who we could have drafted but because the players is probably simply what he is. Would have been a win if Newhook had another gear. Not impossible but he Is D+5...

 

[Miller Time]

His value was very likely higher then Newhook's over the summer since he was coming off a 40 point season and up to that point had been progressing season over season. But this year his 2 points in 15 games in his D+5 season is a serious red flag, if as you suggested he continues to struggle then he'll lose significant value. He goes from being a guy whose potential is being realized just much slower then people thought/expected to a guy who looks likely to never be more then a 3rd liner.

Now I get that you shouldn't write off a young guy because of one bad season which is why I would still be interested in acquiring him even if he struggles the whole season instead of less then 20 games. Just not at the price equivalent to a late 1st + good prospect, if Kakko gets his season back on track to be the ~40 points player he showed last year, then that price becomes much more reasonable.

i see what you are saying... but i also think that GM "value" and fan "value" differ immensely and that generally speaking, GM value (or, more specifically, player evaluation) doesn't fluctuate nearly as quickly.

IF the habs pro scouting eval on KK was positive this summer, his 15-game struggles this year would do little to change their read on him imo. Hughes has already asserted that they approach player acquisition from the POV of their own value assessment (less concerned with market/perceived value than with their own evaluation when it comes to pulling the trigger).

that's what I mean when I suggest that the bigger variable in this theoretical trade would be the rangers level of interest in Monahan and their internal decision on KK, and the number of suitors for Monahan (which could open the door to other targeted prospects or pick collateral the habs are targeting)

 

[gusfring]

I would absolutely look into Patrick Laine. 25 and if they could retain a bit he would be under Suzuki and Caufield.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

Except we couldve drafted Cristall, Rehkopf, Hameenaho, Heidt, Hrabal, UngerSorum, Sawchyn, Brzustewicz, Barkey, and a bunch of others who all look incredible.

And Im a fan of Newhook.

Most look pretty good but not incredible.

 

[Miller Time]

Then Monahan sign 4X5 this summer.

best case scenario is definitely to trade him at peak return and then re-sign him!

(though i'd prefer 3x6 or 6.5... if he stays healthy, he's easily worth that, so with the health being the bigger concern, i'd rather pay more and shorten the term, perhaps even add some bonus $ to the sweeten the pot further for him... on his end, if he ends up with similar $ in fewer years, can't see him saying no. Win-win).

 

[Colezuki]

best case scenario is definitely to trade him at peak return and then re-sign him!

(though i'd prefer 3x6 or 6.5... if he stays healthy, he's easily worth that, so with the health being the bigger concern, i'd rather pay more and shorten the term, perhaps even add some bonus $ to the sweeten the pot further for him... on his end, if he ends up with similar $ in fewer years, can't see him saying no. Win-win).

I soimehow think they make a big pitch to the leafs for Nylander

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

I soimehow think they make a big pitch to the leafs for Nylander

Nylander will go to free agency and sign with whoever offers the most money. I doubt HuGo is interested in getting into a bidding war.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

I soimehow think they make a big pitch to the leafs for Nylander

Let’s hope not

 

[Hannibal]

I would absolutely look into Patrick Laine. 25 and if they could retain a bit he would be under Suzuki and Caufield.

Nope. The ship is failling .

 

[Mrb1p]

Most look pretty good but not incredible.

PPG in liiga, 1.8 ppg in CHL, 1.5 ppg as D in CHL. Guys also outproducing Newhooks best season in NCAA so far...

No we can only make one decision with our picks and statiscally speaking its a hit rate of 25% to have someone who will play 200 NHL games with those picks.

In hindsight, we can look back and identify ~8 players in the 2nd RD thats feels like hit and say what if we drafted them, f***ing newhook.

Its not how it works on the draft floor and when its time to make the pick.

Meh assets for a meh player. The greyest of grey trade.

Its most likely going to be a failure, not because who we could have drafted but because the players is probably simply what he is. Would have been a win if Newhook had another gear. Not impossible but he Is D+5...

Yeah you speak as a fan of a team whos been lowering the bar for decades now. The reality is the organization should excel here and have much higher convertion rate than whatever stat you just invented. As a top tier organization money wise, we cant lower our standards to poverty franchise like Arizona.

 

[Jaynki]

Yeah you speak as a fan of a team whos been lowering the bar for decades now. The reality is the organization should excel here and have much higher convertion rate than whatever stat you just invented. As a top tier organization money wise, we cant lower our standards to poverty franchise like Arizona.

Well i completely agree but that is not the point.

Its easy to know who have been the best pick in hindsight. When we deal 31 and 37 we dont have the hindsight. That is the point.

Its the statiscal norm that 8-10 players from the 2nd RD will make it. 20+ wont make it. We will end up in this distribution with 31 and 37.

So in hindsight, it will always look like we missed some talent when trading late 1st/early 2nd.

And before concluding that i invent stats, can you give me then the real hit rate for picks 31-37?

 

[gusfring]

Nope. The ship is failling .

So we can get him on the cheap. This team cannot score goals.

 

[Mrb1p]

Well i completely agree but that is not the point.

Its easy to know who have been the best pick in hindsight. When we deal 31 and 37 we dont have the hindsight. That is the point.

Its the statiscal norm that 8-10 players from the 2nd RD will make it. 20+ wont make it. We will end up in this distribution with 31 and 37.

So in hindsight, it will always look like we missed some talent when trading late 1st/early 2nd.

And before concluding that i invent stats, can you give me then the real hit rate for picks 31-37?

Im pretty sure no ones ever compiled this, so no.

Its not about hindsight when you make the call as a basement scout before the picks are drawn. Its just bad scouting, management and bar lowering again.

 

[Hannibal]

So we can get him on the cheap. This team cannot score goals.

Laine, what you see is what you get now. He’s past the reclamation project now.

 

[Miller Time]

I soimehow think they make a big pitch to the leafs for Nylander

interesting

i'd be shocked to see the Leafs part ways with Nylander this season... even if they risk losing him.

too risky to mess with a core contributor in a cup focused season imo

if we target Nylander, it'll be in the offseason (perhaps even a trade for his rights prior to July 1st)

 

[Jaynki]

Im pretty sure no ones ever compiled this, so no.

Its not about hindsight when you make the call as a basement scout before the picks are drawn. Its just bad scouting, management and bar lowering again.

There is a full chart for hit rate with each draft pick at each rank with a statistical value. Its ~25% for pick 25-40 with slight variations between each rank. Perceived value of picks decrease dramatically past top 15.

Hit being an NHL career of at least 200 games but it don't specify 4th liner or stats.

The fact pick 31 and 37 ended up in Gulyayev and Gauthier while Rehkopf, Brustewicz, Heidt, Cristall, Sawchyn, etc. All look way better support this statistical evidence.

To me, the failure is not trading 31 and 37, its what we ultimately acquired with those pick. A smallish, speedy 40-50 points winger is an easy, commonly available commodity throughout the league. (Pick 31,37 too). It would have been nice if we had someone with higher upside.

 

[gusfring]

Laine, what you see is what you get now. He’s past the reclamation project now.

Point a game last year. You aren't getting anyone better without spending 12 in the summer. Won't happen.

 

[Boss Man Hughes]

interesting

i'd be shocked to see the Leafs part ways with Nylander this season... even if they risk losing him.

too risky to mess with a core contributor in a cup focused season imo

if we target Nylander, it'll be in the offseason (perhaps even a trade for his rights prior to July 1st)

Trading for his rights would likely be a waste of time. Nylanders are all about the cash. He will go to UFA to make sure he gets the most he can possibly get (unless they offer 14-15 mil).

 

[rahad]

Please Kent, don't sign Nylander for 10m+. We all know how badly signing a player in his late 20 is a bad idea. Just looking at Huberdeau, Kadri and Gaudreau contract.

We is going to have a great season and try to sign a 10m+ in the summer.

 

[26Mats]

Please Kent, don't sign Nylander for 10m+. We all know how badly signing a player in his late 20 is a bad idea. Just looking at Huberdeau, Kadri and Gaudreau contract.

We is going to have a great season and try to sign a 10m+ in the summer.

He's staying in Toronto. Don't worry.

 

[HuGort]

Sorry buddy, gonna have to call bs on this one.

There are no insiders in Montreal....just low level vermin who speculate themselves into a frenzy.

Montembeault has a very short track record of success at the NHL level and management are just doing their due diligence.

Oilers scouts been chasing us around for three weeks. They have to have interest in us or they been gone.

 

[Guy Larose]

Oilers scouts been chasing us around for three weeks. They have to have interest in us or they been gone.

You just said 2 weeks on the main board, make up your mind lol

 

[rahad]

He's staying in Toronto. Don't worry.

Does Toronto have the money to sign him? He is going to ask for 10m+ with the season he is having.