HF Habs: Trade Proposal Thread #85 - Offseason Editon

[Scriptor]

Not only would buying out Gallagher in 2025 entail a 4.25M penalty for 2026-2027, but upon further verifications, even buying him out in 2026 entails a 3.8M penalty for that same (likely crucial) 2026-2027 season…

In retrospect, biting the bullet and trading Gallagher with 50% retention and a significant incentive in the summer of 2025 - after his 9M AAV season(!) and especially once the Habs have claim back some salary retention spots - seems like the way to go; unless of course the optimal scenario occurs, namely Gallagher ending up on LTIR and becoming a neutral/beneficial asset!

Habs may be forced to ride that contract out but I don't think it is amajor concern if the only albatross contract beyond two more years, including this one, is Gallagher's contract.

Habs won't be in a position to win big by adding just ONE missing player until Gallagher's contract is off the books for 2027-2028.

Most of the key youngsters and prospects will either have established themselves or be out of the picture by then, including Mailloux, Hutson, Reinbacher, Engstrom and Konyushkov on D, Roy, as well as Heineman, Farrell, Kidney, Kapanen, etc...

The picture will be clearer to makee the right, necessary moves and the assets should have more value in a trade scenario.

There's no rush to give up assets to move Gallagher, IMO.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

I don't think it's just to you, pretty much by every metric Dach is the superior player. Canes signed a long-term deal in the hopes that KK can become a #2C. With the cap rising it's still a manageable cap hit for a third liner. I actually think it doesn't bode well that KK wasn't wiling to bet on himself and took the safe money.

Dach does the things KK showed in flashes but does them every game. It's funny because they are such similar players in terms of upside and strengths. Dach has a slightly better shot, he's slightly stronger on the puck, his vision is slightly better, he's slightly bigger, he's slightly more physical. But all those things combine to create a much better player. Dach is more in line with what I think our scouting staff thought KK would be. It is well known that Finnish players in particular don't really take supplements and libelous things I can't mention and frequently are physically outmatched when first coming to North America. KK could still end up being what he was taken to be in a couple years. You'd think with Rod the bod as their coach Carolina would have the best conditioning in the league.

Still Dach is already better and 19 months younger. They had pretty similar totals last year except Dach missed 25 games and didn't play on a top 5 teams top six. KK's linemates also vastly outproduced him. I like to rag on KK because he signed the offer sheet but he's not a bad player, just a disappointment considering our hype for him. I'd take him over Dvo as the third line C. Dvo can't even stay healthy. I actually think in the summer of '25 if Carolina can't keep their D-core together they're going to have to rebuild. They have no prospects and their whole core is becoming 30 soon. I still believe the KK offer sheet closed their window, they had no cap space to make moves that first year they had Dougie Hamilton still and their best roster in franchise history. They replaced Dougie with Kotkaniemi which also caused them to lose Trochek and Niederreiter.

I think Dach will separate himself even more this year too. Carolina look like they're going to take a step back. Teravainen fell off a cliff last year and likely is out of his prime. Who knows if Svech is damaged goods, he's not ready to start the season. They apparently aren't able to re-sign Pesce and speculation was he'd be traded before the year started. Burns is 38, will he start to age? They kept Staal who was already falling off as well. Their big addition was Bunting who put up 40-something points playing with two 100+ point caliber players. I would not be surprised to see them closer to the wildcard spot. New Jersey should take a massive leap forward. Pens have a monster potential Edmonton-caliber PP now. Rangers have Shesterkin. They're lucky in that Columbus, Philly and the Islanders should be pretty bad. The Islanders in particular really believed they had a good team but it was just Trotz. I can't think of a team with more bad contracts than them; a ton of guys signed for huge money until they're 37-38 years old.

My math was definitely wrong on the age so I am wrong there. Kotkaniemi's release, however, is too slow to be effective. He's never been a goal scorer at any level because he takes too long to shoot. Dach may have a worse technical shot but he actually gets it off. It's been one of the elements of his game that has improved the most in his time here. He outpaced KK in goals last year. KK largely played with Necas and Svech. I didn't tear down either of those guys. After that his next most common linemates were Jarvis and Teravainen (the only guy I tore down). Aside from Nikishin, who may never come over, they don't have anything within to replace the quality of what they will be losing. Quantity doesn't replace Slavin or Pesce who have legitimately been two of the top 15 dmen in the league for years.

The forward prospects you're talking about largely haven't shown anything to suggest they'll be first line or impact players in the NHL (or even NHLers at all). One was a fourth round pick literally taken this past draft. Rykov under the best circumstances wouldn't even be in the NHL by the time Aho's prime is over. Trikozov is in his D+2 and can't crack the KHL. Others are also recent picks that don't project to be in the NHL within the next 3-4 years. They already took a step back last year offensively after losing Niederreitter and Trochek and should take another step back this year with all the aging vets. They have no immediate backup coming. Drury has not impressed in the NHL and seems to be more of a third liner. Roy was drafted for us in 2021 and under the absolute optimal development path he's not expected to make the team until at least next year. None of those guys are having Roy-level seasons or development paths and Roy isn't even expected to be an impact player. The guys they needed to be ready should have been drafted between 2017-2020. Right now that's just Necas, Jarvis and Svech.

They've got 30 year old Stefan Noesen in their lineup who only cracked one full-time roster in his 10 year career. This is a team that has played above it's potential because of the strength of their d corps. They were second in the league in goals against and have done well with a variety of goaltenders over the years. When Slavin and Pesce fall off or get traded or don't re-sign, do any of their goalies project confidence to be a #1? I think they're very closely approaching Vancouver early 2010's territory where their roster is good and is going to drop off suddenly. Of course Slavin and Pesce could both re-sign and age well into their 30's and it's a moot point. Ironically, they traded for Fox in the Hanifan and Lindholm trade probably thinking he would be that guy. In the end he didn't sign, they let Dougie walk and all of their picks are non-factor players.

If Svech doesn't recover entirely from his injury, I will boldly claim Carolina will finish 7th or lower in the conference this season and miss the playoffs next year. You can bookmark it. Again, the best thing in their favour is the Metro has several bad teams now.

Really interesting posts!! I especially like that you mentioned Kotkaniemi's slow release. That was something about him I noticed, and thought to myself but never mentioned anywhere. His shot in a vacuum is good, but he struggles to get it off.
Also would like to mention another quibble I have with Kotkaniemi is his lack of PK play. I really like Dach's PK abilities. Really one of my fav parts about his game (that and his playmaking).

It'll be interesting to monitor Kotkaniemi's development. An interesting player to compare him to is Barrett Hayton (#5 from that year). I really like Hayton's game.

 

[RationalExpectations]

Really interesting posts!! I especially like that you mentioned Kotkaniemi's slow release. That was something about him I noticed, and thought to myself but never mentioned anywhere. His shot in a vacuum is good, but he struggles to get it off.
Also would like to mention another quibble I have with Kotkaniemi is his lack of PK play. I really like Dach's PK abilities. Really one of my fav parts about his game (that and his playmaking).

It'll be interesting to monitor Kotkaniemi's development. An interesting player to compare him to is Barrett Hayton (#5 from that year). I really like Hayton's game.

I think KK and Hayton should invite us to be patient with prospects. As a VAN (and MTL of course ) fan, I have seen the Sedins being called busts… fans have no patience…

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

I think KK and Hayton should invite us to be patient with prospects. As a VAN (and MTL of course ) fan, I have seen the Sedins being ca lled busts… fans have no patience…

It's true. Sometimes we have too much patience, other times not enough. I think it mainly comes from being several steps removed from what's actually going on. The Media produce pieces, but those are largely fluff pieces to sell to us. The best way to see how teams value players etc is at trade deadlines and free agency and such.

For me, the big problem with the Habs and Kotkaniemi was that they brought him over too soon. Had they just sent him back to Finland, he'd probably still be a Hab.

 

[RationalExpectations]

It's true. Sometimes we have too much patience, other times not enough. I think it mainly comes from being several steps removed from what's actually going on. The Media produce pieces, but those are largely fluff pieces to sell to us. The best way to see how teams value players etc is at trade deadlines and free agency and such.

For me, the big problem with the Habs and Kotkaniemi was that they brought him over too soon. Had they just sent him back to Finland, he'd probably still be a Hab.

Bringing him to soon and then hiring Ducharme to not play him even though he was scoring and then playing hardball for the contract negotiations... lot of mistakes have been made with KK. I don't get the hate for the Guy from some fans.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Bringing him to soon and then hiring Ducharme to not play him even though he was scoring and then playing hardball for the contract negotiations... lot of mistakes have been made with KK. I don't get the hate for the Guy from some fans.

He came with HUGE positive energy and the brass managed to suck it all out of him.

I remember well that the day before Chu-rien decided to render KK superfluous in favor of incoming useless vets, the pundits on TSN were touting Kotkaniemi to get some Selke votes! OK, that was a bit much, but he was universally thought to be doing ok. Clod had KK on the second line in practice the day before the Great Nate arrived.

Then suddenly they said he was tired and had to be the third/fourth weal on the bottom line for the rest of the year.

 

[Ezpz]

I think KK and Hayton should invite us to be patient with prospects. As a VAN (and MTL of course ) fan, I have seen the Sedins being called busts… fans have no patience…

I think there's patience and there's cope. How many players are like the Sedins and go from fringe second liners to potential hall of fame Art Ross winners at 25 years old? The list is small. Sedin's benefitted most from the post-lockout changes and heavy PP time that followed, they were far too soft to ever break out in the clutch and grab era.

 

[RationalExpectations]

I think there's patience and there's cope. How many players are like the Sedins and go from fringe second liners to potential hall of fame Art Ross winners at 25 years old? The list is small. Sedin's benefitted most from the post-lockout changes and heavy PP time that followed, they were far too soft to ever break out in the clutch and grab era.

Or maybe some prospects never become anything because mgmt throws the towel before they are 23. Look at Thompson, Bratt exploded in his D+6 (very good D+5), Hintz in his D+6, last year Tolvanen getting a shot in SEA…

 

[Ezpz]

Or maybe some prospects never become anything because mgmt throws the towel before they are 23. Look at Thompson, Bratt exploded in his D+6 (very good D+5), Hintz in his D+6, last year Tolvanen getting a shot in SEA…

A lot of your examples are guys who didn't actually play a lot of NHL games prior to breaking out. Many didn't play in the NHL until their D+3-5

Bratt had already broken out in his sophomore season though, his deflated point totals were from how bad New Jersey were as a team. Even in his sophomore year he was on pace to lead or nearly lead the team in scoring and floated in that range for three years--always pacing for within 5-10 points of team lead. It's also different to count D+whatever for late round guys who didn't make the league until 21 versus physically mature top 5 picks. He paced as a 60 point guy for three years and turned into a 70 point guy when Hughes broke out and they added Dougie Hamilton.

Likewise Hintz played two years in the NHL on Dallas' bottom six/second line and exploded after being given first line and Robertson as a linemate. Even then Hintz was a 75 point guy when Robertson put up over a hundred. I know Hintz was better in the playoffs but his numbers in the regular season were boosted by good linemates, not a breakout. He still put up respectable numbers in his first couple seasons when he wasn't getting PP or top line mates.

Tage Thompson is probably the most unique case of the last few decades. Even Buffalo didn't think he would be good, he couldn't completely crack their roster three years in a row and was the 13th forward in last one. Was it just playing behind Eichel and Reinhart didn't give him a chance to play? It's not like he wasn't great in the AHL. His explosion is not something that can just be unlocked by being patient.

In Seattle Tolvanen scored at the same pace as his first half-season in Nashville, so it's not like something special unlocked that nobody could see. It was universally panned as a bad move to waive him and 31 teams fans were yelling to claim him. Nashville's own fans were infuriated he couldn't get ice time when their team was garbage.

I just don't see that many players who just unlock a new level like Thompson or the Sedins that often. 25 years old is the age a guy who started at 18 hits free agency. Should it take the entirety of RFA status for a high pick to become a good player? When most cup winners are utilizing guys on ELCs mixed with discounted vets in the 23-26 range to win cups.

Should we bring back Ryan Poehling since he can become a 97 point player with patience?

 

[Takeru]

You can never escape the past.

Love how MB's ghost somehow managed to haunt the training camp thread and this trade thread is slowly turning into the KK thread

 

[nhlfan9191]

Bringing him to soon and then hiring Ducharme to not play him even though he was scoring and then playing hardball for the contract negotiations... lot of mistakes have been made with KK. I don't get the hate for the Guy from some fans.

I don’t think we played hard ball with KK in contract negotiations at all. Carolina came at us with vengeance with an offer sheet for a dumb move Bergevin made years previous with Aho. KK only deserved a bridge deal and had we matched that ridiculous OS, we risked losing KK for nothing a year later to UFA if we didn’t give him exactly what he wanted. Bergevin was a dumpster fire but not matching KK contract isn’t one of his dumb moves unless we also add the only reason that happened is because of what we did with Aho. Which I consider a different mess up.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Not only would buying out Gallagher in 2025 entail a 4.25M penalty for 2026-2027, but upon further verifications, even buying him out in 2026 entails a 3.8M penalty for that same (likely crucial) 2026-2027 season…

In retrospect, biting the bullet and trading Gallagher with 50% retention and a significant incentive in the summer of 2025 - after his 9M AAV season(!) and especially once the Habs have claim back some salary retention spots - seems like the way to go; unless of course the optimal scenario occurs, namely Gallagher ending up on LTIR and becoming a neutral/beneficial asset!

Planning to buyout the last two years of a player's contract two years in the future when Montreal should have something like 50 million in usable cap room and the only guys who would potentially be getting significant raises are Slaf, Guhle and RHP seems... premature. Like picking out the drapes for the living room of a house that hasn't been built yet.

I honestly don't see Montreal being in a situation where they need the capspace unless they're somehow competitive enough to attract free agents and two of Draisaitl, Marner, Landeskog, and Rantanen make it to market and want to sign in Montreal. Which seems wildly optimistic.

Gallagher's contract will be dealt with if it needs to be dealt with. Right now it doesn't.

 

[Miller Time]

[ see

He came with HUGE positive energy and the brass managed to suck it all out of him.

I remember well that the day before Chu-rien decided to render KK superfluous in favor of incoming useless vets, the pundits on TSN were touting Kotkaniemi to get some Selke votes! OK, that was a bit much, but he was universally thought to be doing ok. Clod had KK on the second line in practice the day before the Great Nate arrived.

Then suddenly they said he was tired and had to be the third/fourth weal on the bottom line for the rest of the year.

Yup.

JKO's Montreal experience is a textbook case of an organization screwing up the development path of a young player.

He's back on track in Carolina and poised to take some big steps forward over next two seasons.

 

[Kimota]

Bringing him to soon and then hiring Ducharme to not play him even though he was scoring and then playing hardball for the contract negotiations... lot of mistakes have been made with KK. I don't get the hate for the Guy from some fans.

I mean Ducharme did f*** up but it's understandable why some may hate him: Because he chose another team.

 

[DAChampion]

I mean Ducharme did f*** up but it's understandable why some may hate him: Because he chose another team.

Anyway the Kotkaniemi for Dvorak swap worked out for the Habs, as it led to the drafting of Slafkovsky, the firing of Bergevin, and the acquisition of Dach.

 

[Kimota]

Anyway the Kotkaniemi for Dvorak swap worked out for the Habs, as it led to the drafting of Slafkovsky, the firing of Bergevin, and the acquisition of Dach.

Would have been even better if we didn't trade for Dvorak. But yea losing KK and Danault showed how many holes we had in this club without Weber and Price. Having Danault and KK, we would have been a little better and MB would not have been fired and he would have never rebuilt.

 

[ML16]

Planning to buyout the last two years of a player's contract two years in the future when Montreal should have something like 50 million in usable cap room and the only guys who would potentially be getting significant raises are Slaf, Guhle and RHP seems... premature. Like picking out the drapes for the living room of a house that hasn't been built yet.

I honestly don't see Montreal being in a situation where they need the capspace unless they're somehow competitive enough to attract free agents and two of Draisaitl, Marner, Landeskog, and Rantanen make it to market and want to sign in Montreal. Which seems wildly optimistic.

Gallagher's contract will be dealt with if it needs to be dealt with. Right now it doesn't.

I won’t deny it is indeed premature to think about buying out Gallagher in 2025 or beyond; I guess I jumped the gun since I was genuinely shocked by the results of the CapFriendly’s Buy Out Calculator upon reading a poster mentioning a « time bomb » hidden in Gallagher’s contract - namely an astonishing 9M AAV season that would entail a +4M AAV buy out penalty for 2026-2027.

This being said, the encouraging thought is that after 2025, Gallagher should in principle be the last remaining « bad contract » on the payroll - and that, as you rightly mentioned, the Habs likely won’t need that 6.5M AAV cap space before Gallagher’s term expires anyways; especially with Price timely coming off the books in 2026, right when Dach’s new deal would kick in.

So I completely understand the position of not spending any assets to shed his contract and just eventually bury it instead, if the LTIR scenario doesn’t trigger.

But on the other hand, since cap space shouldn’t be an issue, I could also see intrinsic value in an early buy-out from an « available chairs » within the next core perspective; time will tell!

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

[ see

Yup.

JKO's Montreal experience is a textbook case of an organization screwing up the development path of a young player.

He's back on track in Carolina and poised to take some big steps forward over next two seasons.

Let's see how it goes in Carolina. I certainly would not lose any sleep if he never pans out for them...

 

[JoelWarlord]

Gallagher's contract will be dealt with if it needs to be dealt with. Right now it doesn't.

He's likely on the fast track to LTIR anyway

 

[Sterling Archer]

Let's see how it goes in Carolina. I certainly would not lose any sleep if he never pans out for them...

Well he's hit a career high of 43 points in his 5th year as a "pro" on one of the best teams in the NHL, so I'd say it's not going too well at the moment.

 

[Kobe Armstrong]

I won’t deny it is indeed premature to think about buying out Gallagher in 2025 or beyond; I guess I jumped the gun since I was genuinely shocked by the results of the CapFriendly’s Buy Out Calculator upon reading a poster mentioning a « time bomb » hidden in Gallagher’s contract - namely an astonishing 9M AAV season that would entail a +4M AAV buy out penalty for 2026-2027.

This being said, the encouraging thought is that after 2025, Gallagher should in principle be the last remaining « bad contract » on the payroll - and that, as you rightly mentioned, the Habs likely won’t need that 6.5M AAV cap space before Gallagher’s term expires anyways; especially with Price timely coming off the books in 2026, right when Dach’s new deal would kick in.

So I completely understand the position of not spending any assets to shed his contract and just eventually bury it instead, if the LTIR scenario doesn’t trigger.

But on the other hand, since cap space shouldn’t be an issue, I could also see intrinsic value in an early buy-out from an « available chairs » within the next core perspective; time will tell!

On the other other hand, if we ever make the playoffs, the cap doesn't matter and a player like Gallagher would still have some use to the team as a a warrior despite his price tag.

Kind of like Price every year and Bobrovsky last year, everyone cried about how they were negative value with their contracts, but as soon as the playoffs hit they became MVP. Obviously Gallagher won't be MVP, but I would take him on the 4th line over a guy like Pezzetta, if we ever make it back during Gallagher's tenure

 

[Habs Halifax]

Theres nothing HuGo can do about the crazy/idiot fans we have Reinbacher just got death threats right after being drafted in which was suppose to be hes happiest day ever they had to block the comments section bcuz of the hate he was getting

Lafreniere is a former local #1 overall pick who will never live up to hes draft postion because hes simply just not good enough but would also receive ton of hype bcuz hes a former local #1 pick how long do you think fans will endure hes mediocre play Laffy will make it in the Nhl has a decent 3rd liner but hes nothing more

Hes a big pass for me theres better options

I think cultures can change but yeah, our management will need some help with the good members of the media and the fan base. Lets not let the disgruntled and loud mouths represent the majority and lets also not let the bad apples run it for the bunch.

Hard to say what happens with Lafreniere but this season is a big season for him. If it's more of the same, I would personally be open to brining him to Montreal if the trade makes sense. Can't be trading a grade A or 1st rounder for him if it's another meh season. That kind of approach.

I'm not afraid of bringing him to Montreal to see what MSL can do for him. We should not be worried about him being French and getting too much focus. I don't agree with that approach one bit. I call it the Drouin syndrome/sickness.... the past does not have to equal the future.

 

[Ezpz]

I think cultures can change but yeah, our management will need some help with the good members of the media and the fan base. Lets not let the disgruntled and loud mouths represent the majority and lets also not let the bad apples run it for the bunch.

Hard to say what happens with Lafreniere but this season is a big season for him. If it's more of the same, I would personally be open to brining him to Montreal if the trade makes sense. Can't be trading a grade A or 1st rounder for him if it's another meh season. That kind of approach.

I'm not afraid of bringing him to Montreal to see what MSL can do for him. We should not be worried about him being French and getting too much focus. I don't agree with that approach one bit. I call it the Drouin syndrome/sickness.... the past does not have to equal the future.

I mostly agree. I don't think Laf is a "because he's French" acquisition, it's more of a "he's cheap, has potential upside, fits a spot we are not deep in (LW), and just so happens to be French as well as an added bonus." Like plenty of us would be ecstatic to go after the Rangers KK as well. Laf wouldn't have the same expectations here as in New York since we didn't waste a first overall pick on him.

ps. I know he's Quebecois and not French for any pedants in the crowd.

 

[The Real Timo]

Come on! Lets trade someone! Let's bring someone moar bigger and very very mean.
Still a whole week before season opener. Sigh

 

[smirob]

I would buy low on Laf, it’s worth the gamble to see if MSL can unlock something there