Egresch
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- Jul 10, 2022
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We do not need another 2nd line center
We need to fix the damn PP and it can bring us additional 15 goals itself.
HF Habs: Trade Proposal Thread #85 - Offseason Editon
- Thread starter Lafleurs Guy
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DAChampion
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Off the top of my head I cannot picture the last time the Habs had four 65pt players. Carey Price himself counts as a PPG+ player, so let's say three 65pt players since Price took off in 2010.
I've just looked it up and the results are not surprising:
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]2022-2023[/TD]
[TD]Suzuki[/TD]
[TD]0.8 ppg[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2020-2021[/TD]
[TD]Toffoli[/TD]
[TD]0.85 ppg[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2019-2020[/TD]
[TD]Tatar[/TD]
[TD]0.90 ppg[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2018-2019[/TD]
[TD]Domi[/TD]
[TD]0.88 ppg[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2016-2017[/TD]
[TD]Pacioretty[/TD]
[TD]0.83 ppg[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2014-2015[/TD]
[TD]Pacioretty[/TD]
[TD]0.84 ppg[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2013-2014[/TD]
[TD]Pacioretty[/TD]
[TD]0.82 ppg[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2013-2014[/TD]
[TD]Vanek[/TD]
[TD]0.83 ppg[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2012-2013[/TD]
[TD]Pacioretty[/TD]
[TD]0.89 ppg[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2012-2013[/TD]
[TD]Subban[/TD]
[TD]0.90 ppg[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2011-2012[/TD]
[TD]Pacioretty[/TD]
[TD]0.82 ppg[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]2009-2010[/TD]
[TD]Plekanec[/TD]
[TD]0.85 ppg[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
... and that's it. nIf you go further back there's the infamous Robert Lang / Alex Tanguay year but we're delving into historical stats that are less relevant to the today and now... also that year ended up in a train wreck. The less said the better.
Essentially these are roundabout exercises to come to a common sense conclusion: high-end talent is necessary. This is why despite the draft lottery many still believe in Tanking & Rebuilding as opposed to 'digging your way out'/re-tooling I think I want to see more short re-builds than long ones.
For our case, I really felt if we had acquired eg. PLD it would've gone a long way for us returning to respectability. I think our team is a bit too far behind (ie has too few 0.8ppg players) but the idea is still valid... you build a core and find ways to add talent to it.
I think one auxiliary conclusion is that you don't need to bet on too many players of the same profile. As long as you get four or five very good players, you don't need to waste your time pursuing them in every move. I think we see this when GMs acquire role-players and tinker around the edges once they trust their core. For the Habs, with the addition of Newhook we have now already maxed out our "small skilled forward" quota between Suzuki, Caufield, and Newhook. If Newhook shows some promise this season, perhaps that means that player profile should be downgraded in priority in the pre-draft analysis for instance. This is partly why Michkov, Benson, and others might've been downgraded by the Habs in the past draft. Conversely, it means prospects Farrell, Kidney, and Mesar will have a much tougher time breaking in if the aforementioned three small skilled NHL forwards remain in place.
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Offseason 2025 is indeed destined to be the Habs’ most crucial window in recent memory.
- Substantial draft capital (2 x 1st, 2 x 2nd and 2x 3rd to date*) to pick high end prospects and/or leverage in trade(s) to acquire missing core piece(s);
- *Likely further assets gathered by then via trading notably Pearson, Dvorak, Monahan, Savard, Kovacevic, Allen);
- An emerging core nearing its prime and whose needs will have more been clearly identified;
- +20M in cap space available and a foreseeable steady influx of ELC players coming of age to fill these needs in a sustainable way.
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
100% accurate. We will also know how good some of our NHL youth is doing as well. I hope we start to move up and show potential over the next few seasons. This will make others who might be available think about joining the Habs.
Either through sign/trade on a RFA or with UFA.
DAChampion
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I think that's generous, because many of those teams with 4+ 65 point players have excellent goalies and defensemen.
Not sure I get the Harris/Poulin swap... I'd be shocked if Harris had so little value, or Poulin that much.
Captain Mountain
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If you think Hughes has "bet the house on Suzuki + Caufield + Dach + Newhook + Slafkovsky to provide this top-end player core", then I'm not sure you get where Montreal is right now. Because:
1) Montreal isn't "going for it" with that group.
2) They've only invested big money and term on two of those guys (and Caufield is the one signed by Hughes, Suzuki just became captain under him).
3) Montreal is still expected to be a lottery team next draft (and probably the one after as well).
4) It doesn't even line up with what Hughes has said publicly.
Betting the house implies a sort of finality that would suggest using all assets to build around that group. But all of those guys are easy to move, combined take up less than 23 mil against the cap for the next two seasons, and Montreal still has a ton of picks.
Its pretty clear that the organization is betting on development. They've identified high upside and high pedigree players to acquire and will try to get the most out of them. But in the case of Dach and Newhook, there contracts are such that if they continue to develop, they also become very valuable trade pieces.
Harry Kakalovich
Like and reply
If Habs keep Primeau and carry 3 goalies, it would seem like maybe the most likely goalie to get traded might be Montembeault. He'd be the easiest to trade, he'd return the most, and he's UFA at the end of the year and the Habs haven't re-signed him.
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Hughes spent significant draft capital to acquire Slafkovsky, Dach, and Newhook and gave big commitments to Caufield and Suzuki (capitancy). Hughes is very much betting on this fivesome. Thing is, you say it later in your post when you say the organization is betting on development. Yes they are -- the development of this fivesome in particular. To develop them as players or as trade assets but these five forwards, for better or worse, are the ones upon whom the Habs have placed their chips.
The longer Montreal is a lottery team the less likely it is they'll get out of it with this core intact. If the forward core falls apart, that doesn't mean it's the end -- there is no end -- it just means the next GM will have to restart and rebuild. And on we go. There is no finality, there is however... TIME: it ticks away relentlessly and with it it brings inevitable change. Entropy. Injuries, trade demands, contract demands, burn out, etc. If the guys are easy to move that means this bet on this fivesome is over -- you're not disagreeing with that I'm saying then, are you?
The question I raise is if these five will contain the four+ 0.8ppg players we seem to need to be a serious team. As @DAChampion says, it's not just four 0.8ppg fowards anyway, you need a good goalie (we don't have) and great defensemen (to be seen).
It'll be an important year to mark the trajectory and growth of the fivesome.
Agree but I don't see the influx of ELC players for reasons mentioned earlier. The team is full, the commitments are locked-in. It's unlikely any of our skill forward prospects will dislodge the fivesome + Anderson/RHP for Top6 roles. The D is already full. Unless they manage a quarters for a dollar trade, I don't see much room. It's a bit paradoxical because we have a very weak roster but it is what it is.
A very important season even though it doesn't seem like it. I think the players feel it too from what they've been saying.
Habs Halifax
Loyal Habs Fan
I'm pretty sure the Habs prefer to have Price on the roster and under the cap before the season starts. Then move him to LTIR after the season. If they do this, there is no room for 3 goalies. They likely have to have a 21 man roster to get under the cap with Price as the 22nd guy. I bet you we run with 12F, 7D, and 3 goalies with Price being one of them. I think it's very tight but we get under the cap and then place Price on LTIR after the season starts. This allows our cap space to grow as the season moves along which could be a big deal at the TDL for cap strap teams
I don't think we need to worry about loosing Primeau. He's never going to be as good as either of Allen or Monty. Keep Monty and Let Allen expire. Dobes will be ready when Allen expires and Monty will have more experience at that point as well.
Sure, we can trade Monty for value today but what kind of value are you talking about? 2nd rounder at best? Take a 2nd rounder and keep Primeau? Tank more? That maybe your plan but it's certainly not going to the Hughes plan IMO. They want to move up and make gains at this stage of the rebuild. That means Monty stays and if Primeau gets claimed, so be it. We are not loosing a NHL starting goalie bud.
Captain Mountain
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The Habs traded Romanov, a 3rd and a 4th for Dach, and traded a late 1st and an early 2nd for Newhook, which is around what a rental middle 6 center typically costs. That is not significant draft capital. This is not the same as, say, trading your only blue chip prospect + for Drouin and immediately making him your highest paid forward. Slafkovsky was and is an investment, but he's also much earlier in the development curve.
But more importantly, THAT GROUP OF PLAYERS IS NOT THE FORWARD CORE. If we're identifying the forward core, its Suzuki and Caufield. Maybe Slafkovsky too, but the organization has gone out of its way to say that his development will take time since he's been drafted, so its more that they believe he will be part of the forward core in the future. But Suzuki and Caufield are the guys who have big money, term and responsibility.
I know you view Montreal's situation as being more urgent than it actually is (the next GM will have to restart and rebuild?), but I don't know why you think that's the forward core other than draft pedigree. Hughes hasn't said its the core, MSL hasn't said that's the core, Gorton hasn't said that's the core, and Molson hasn't said that's the core. Newhook hasn't even played a regular season game with the Habs yet.
I don't diagree that you need a lot of productive players to be a legitimate contender, I'm just not sure why you assume those are THE 5 guys at forward are who the organization is betting on. The organization is still in the looking for guys who can be core players and giving them an opportunity to become a core player stage. Those are the likliest candidates, but it could be Roy, it could be RHP, it could be whichever young guy can establish themselves as a difference maker at the NHL level. That's not just happening at forward either, its happening at D too, its just that most of the guys with draft pedigree at D aren't in the NHL yet. But they're looking for people among Guhle, Harris, Xhekaj, Barron, etc. to step up too. And they'll continue adding guys to compete (and may change guys depending on fit and what trades are out there), but they aren't annointing a core.
Bottle Rocket
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Not sure of the true impact so please help me capologists but how about Price to TB for Seabrook? Assuming Vasi is not going to LTIR himself.
Both destined to LTIR. It looks to me like TB is squeezed and they could use even more relief than Seabrook's amount to flesh out their roster and add a more expensive goalie like Vladar at 2M.
For us it's all about reducing the use of high LTIR from 3 years to Seabrook's one.
Both destined to LTIR. It looks to me like TB is squeezed and they could use even more relief than Seabrook's amount to flesh out their roster and add a more expensive goalie like Vladar at 2M.
For us it's all about reducing the use of high LTIR from 3 years to Seabrook's one.
sampollock
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Involve a third team and the salary issue won’t be one.
Regarding the « fivesome+ » you mentioned (Caufield, Suzuki, Dach, Slafkovski, Newwhook, Anderson and RHP), I think that the Habs can reasonably hope to find player(s) with higher upside through at least four means within the next 2 seasons:
- drafting one amongst their three 1st round picks in the 2024 or 2025 drafts;
- signing an UFA in the summer 2025;
- trading for a RFA by leveraging some draft capital and the D pipeline.
- developing one from within; Roy being the likeliest (if not only?) prospect projectable in that sense.
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Dach got a four year contract and he won't be playing bottom6. He was acquired for a 13OA pick.
Newhook got a four year contract and he won't be playing bottom6 (and if he does, it'll indicate a failed bet). Our team is not in a position to send trade capital away in exchange for rentals -- teams with an excess of trade assets can afford such moves, our team cannot afford to acquire a depth player at this price. Newhook isn't a rental, it's a calculated bet on a skill player Kent Hughes knows well. Give some credit to Hughes and Newhook.
I think you're just arguing to argue while it's very clear from THIS training camp that the Habs organization definitely thinks they've put together their top6 and have bet on their internal growth and development. Of course things can change, and things will change, but it is a far cry from uncertain. No one drafts a player with the 1OA and rushes him to the NHL if they don't intend to see him given every shot in the top6. Just Suzuki, Caufield, Dach, and Slafkovsky is a majority of the top6 settled. Newhook will be given every chance to cement his spot too -- and that makes five.
Nobody said the book is closed, but there is a reason why there isn't a clear spot for Roy to slot in out of TC this year even with Drouin and Hoffman gone.
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HuGort
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Captain Mountain
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-Using the antiquated top-6/bottom-6 view of rosters is incredibly unhelpful. Please look at how other teams use players before arguing that using Newhook or Dach on the 3rd line is a "failed bet". The plan in Toronto is to use Nylander as 3C, is he a failed bet?
-You can't separate the Romanov trade from the Dach trade. Montreal didn't trade Romanov for the 13OA pick, they traded him to get the piece Chicago would accept for Dach.
-I am giving Hughes and Newhook credit here. You're the one arguing high costs for these guys. BTW, you're not even correct with the "teams with an excess of trade assets can afford such moves" statement either, its a question of competitive window when acquiring rentals.
-I'm pretty sure you're the one arguing to argue here. I'm not making sweeping statements on the managements plan or objectives absent evidence. For instance, can you actually defend your statement that "it's very clear from THIS training camp that the Habs organization definitely thinks they've put together their top6"? Because based on the coaches comments and how they've assembled lines for pre-season games, it doesn't look like they've decided the major duos on offence they want to go with outside of Caufield-Suzuki, let alone have a clear vision. We know that:
• MSL said he trusts Dach on the top line as a last resort, but they're testing options there.
• it appears that MSL likes the Slafkovsky-Dach-RHP line. But even if that sticks, its not clear if that would be the 2nd line or the 3rd line.
• the Newhook-Anderson duo looked good. But even if that sticks, its not clear if that would be the 2nd line or the 3rd line.
But as you would expect from a team this bad with as much turnover and as many injuries the last couple of seasons, there's not a lot of baked-in chemistry to suggest the team has a defined plan as to how the lines shake out. But even if they did, its not the final vision of the team.
-There isn't a clear spot for Roy to slot in because he's not ready yet and Montreal has a guys ahead of him on the depth chart. But again, Montreal is still in the midst of a rebuild, we don't know who will emerge as part of the core. It'll take another season or two before the picture starts to get clear.
1909
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The two middle-six lines will get about the same amount of time.
... as any other leagues....
HuGort
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sampollock
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Dont see Kent grabbing guys on wavier's, habs have enough guys to fit in now.
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