HF Habs: Trade Proposal Thread #85 - Offseason Editon

[themilosh]

I don’t think he offers much more than what a minimum cap hit player would.

It's unfortunate for him that he has become fodder.. He was rising to his Apex in the SC run, was on fire during the Winnipeg series UNTIL Scheffele almost decapitated him. He's never been the same.

Similar to Patches - was en route to become a true dominant Power forward until Chara introduced his spine to the stanchion, after that he avoided contact and while he did continue to score his versatility was lost.

Similar to Zednick - was a complete stud in the playoffs (leading too iirc) until MAclaren tried to elbow his head off... never the same again.

Similar to Price: when Kreider decided the crease was his and Carey was a pylon..

Freak accidents that disproportionately end Habs players...

Audette: when his wrist was sliced by a skate
Saku: with his eye
Ryan: puck in the throat - done.

only other non-hab player who had a freak accident was Berard when he lost his eye (and yet he still came back).... in the past 30 years, feel free to chime in here...... is there another team who was constantly lost star(ish) players the way the Habs have???
EDIT: Bourdon and Cherepanov (I suppose) but those werent in game freak accidents.

EDIT: ofcourse there is Paul Kariya and Eric Lindros who were "basically" ended from nutjob Stevens.

 

[themilosh]

If he's that good, he's probably going to be taken by one of the teams in front of the Habs in the waiver claim order.

Just like Lassi Thompson that had a few people saying the Habs should claim him. He was taken by Anaheim who have first claim rights on waivers until November (It think it's November where it start using the current season rankings).

Would have been good to pick up Lassi to add to our 2019 1st round draftees. but i think if you claim a player off waivers, don't they have to stay in the NHL? perhaps that is why Hugo took a pass, I'm sure Ottawa prolly offered him before waivers.

 

[1909]

Too bad we have too many forwards. Samuel Fagemo has been put on waivers by LAK. He's scored a combined 50 goals last 2 years in AHL.

Really good shooter, although another righty.

What's wrong with him ? Good offensive potential for sure at AHL level.

I can't see a good reason to not acquire Lafreniere if it is true that the Rangers are ready to move on.

The return would be disturbing to lose.

 

[Runner77]

Too bad we have too many forwards. Samuel Fagemo has been put on waivers by LAK. He's scored a combined 50 goals last 2 years in AHL.

Really good shooter, although another righty.

We need scoring badly.

Would you prefer Fagemo over Ylonen? What about waiving Armia?

 

[Tyson]

We need scoring badly.

Would you prefer Fagemo over Ylonen? What about waiving Armia?

Would Hughes waive a veteran? Fagemo is obviously not coveted too much by LA

 

[Runner77]

Would Hughes waive a veteran? Fagemo is obviously not coveted too much by LA

Sometimes the dispatching team misses the mark and a claiming team reaps. We’re not going anywhere this season anyway, he apparently has a hell of a shot. Hopefully there’s more to him than that.

 

[Heineman Mineman]

We need scoring badly.

Would you prefer Fagemo over Ylonen? What about waiving Armia?

I'm aware it's not a popular opinion around here, but I think Armia deserves one last chance.

The whole team sucked for the last two years. This year is trending upwards (based on comments made in the media by management, which were slightly more hopeful), so Armia should be in the lineup to begin the season.

If there is no effort and/or a slump after ~15 games, then they could waive him. HuGo weren't the idea to give him this contract after all, but waiving a player has an effect on the rest of the roster and shouldn't be taken lightly

 

[morhilane]

Would have been good to pick up Lassi to add to our 2019 1st round draftees. but i think if you claim a player off waivers, don't they have to stay in the NHL? perhaps that is why Hugo took a pass, I'm sure Ottawa prolly offered him before waivers.

We have no idea if the Habs put in a claim for Lassi, Anaheim claimed him and they are first in the waiver claim order until November 1st.

But yes, picking someone on waiver means he has to stay in the NHL for I think 30 days. If sent down before that, the player getting automatically returned to his original club and wo can then assign him to the AHL without having to go through waivers again.

 

[DAChampion]

How many great players have passed through waivers and been available to other teams?

 

[HabzSauce]

How many great players have passed through waivers and been available to other teams?

Paul Byron is the best waiver player I can think of in recent time

Edit: MSL was on waivers at one point but he wasn't claimed. But probably closest to your definition of "great"

VAN scooped up martin Gelinas. Grabner and Bryzgalov also waiver claims.

 

[morhilane]

How many great players have passed through waivers and been available to other teams?

Depends what you mean by great. There are a few cases where the team doesn't want to lose the player, they just can't free a roster spot or don't have the cap space to slot them and they try to "sneak" them through waivers.

That's how the Habs got Byron and Kovacevic.

 

[Runner77]

How many great players have passed through waivers and been available to other teams?

Mete and De la rose.

I'm aware it's not a popular opinion around here, but I think Armia deserves one last chance.

The whole team sucked for the last two years. This year is trending upwards (based on comments made in the media by management, which were slightly more hopeful), so Armia should be in the lineup to begin the season.

If there is no effort and/or a slump after ~15 games, then they could waive him. HuGo weren't the idea to give him this contract after all, but waiving a player has an effect on the rest of the roster and shouldn't be taken lightly

I believe in second chances but this guy has had prolonged disappearing acts over several seasons. Time to give someone else an opportunity.

 

[BLONG7]

Mete and De la rose.


I believe in second chances but this guy has had prolonged disappearing acts over several seasons. Time to give someone else an opportunity.

Poor guy has been awful the last few seasons.........time to waive him, and move him down to Laval.
Give that spot to one of the kids.....

 

[Garry Valk]

Paul Byron is the best waiver player I can think of in recent time

Edit: MSL was on waivers at one point but he wasn't claimed. But probably closest to your definition of "great"

VAN scooped up martin Gelinas. Grabner and Bryzgalov also waiver claims.

Briere, once upon a time.

 

[Skip Bayless]

I can't see a good reason to not acquire Lafreniere if it is true that the Rangers are ready to move on.

As long as you give Jordan Harris IMO.

 

[BargainBinSpecial]

So Habs should pull a Laf on Slaf?

More like kiss or slap.

 

[Bottle Rocket]

Too bad we have too many forwards. Samuel Fagemo has been put on waivers by LAK. He's scored a combined 50 goals last 2 years in AHL.

Really good shooter, although another righty.

The pick LA used to select him was traded from us. We moved back and got Norlinder and Leguerrier instead. Circle of life lol

 

[MarkovsKnee]

What's wrong with him ? Good offensive potential for sure at AHL level.


The return would be disturbing to lose.

He's pretty one dimensional scorer. He relies a lot on other people to get him the puck in scoring position, and he isn't a great creator. A team takes him because they think he might help the PP, or could add scoring depth on 2nd / 3rd lines.

We need scoring badly.

Would you prefer Fagemo over Ylonen? What about waiving Armia?

I'd waive Armia regardless. Not sure HuGo will waive a vet though. And I would take Fagemo before Ylonen too.

 

[Guy Larose]

I can't see a good reason to not acquire Lafreniere if it is true that the Rangers are ready to move on.

Fan talk has nothing to do with reality. Where is it stated that they are ready to move on except a few fan wishes on the main board?

 

[Beendair Donedat]

Couple of deals I’d explore:

Trade 1:

With the Sens cap situation, and the reported large gap in contract value, I’d take a run at Shane Pinto. My offer would be:

To Ottawa: Pittsburgh Penguins 2nd round pick (2025), Minnesota Wild 3rd round pick, Jesse Ylonen.

To Montreal: Shane Pinto

Sens recoup some draft pick value and add a league minimum contract/serviceable player, that keeps them cap compliant. Habs get a very young, team controlled, second line center with size/talent/ability to score.

Trade 2:

To Pittsburgh - Jordan Harris

To Montreal - Samuel Poulin

Pens are in a “win now” mode and will need some NHL quality defensemen to play in the bottom 6, and can still be relied upon. Harris is a steady, improving player and would thrive in that role on a contender (in my opinion of course). Poulin is another young player, who could possibly become a third line center or winger as the roster evolves. He’s an intelligent player, he’s fast and has a big motor, and he’s physical. Fits in well with the age of the new core, and could be a very useful player that can slide up and down the lineup. I’d play him a year in the AHL, move Evans and let him earn a role in 2024-2025.

Trade 3:

Waive goodbye to Armia.


Caufield - Suzuki - Dach
Newhook - Pinto - Anderson
Slafkovsky - Monahan - Gallagher
Harvey-Pinard - Evans - Pearson
Pezzetta

Matheson - Barron
Guhle - Savard
Xhekaj - Kovacevic

Montembeault
Allen

 

[RationalExpectations]

Couple of deals I’d explore:

Trade 1:

With the Sens cap situation, and the reported large gap in contract value, I’d take a run at Shane Pinto. My offer would be:

To Ottawa: Pittsburgh Penguins 2nd round pick (2025), Minnesota Wild 3rd round pick, Jesse Ylonen.

To Montreal: Shane Pinto

Sens recoup some draft pick value and add a league minimum contract/serviceable player, that keeps them cap compliant. Habs get a very young, team controlled, second line center with size/talent/ability to score.

Trade 2:

To Pittsburgh - Jordan Harris

To Montreal - Samuel Poulin

Pens are in a “win now” mode and will need some NHL quality defensemen to play in the bottom 6, and can still be relied upon. Harris is a steady, improving player and would thrive in that role on a contender (in my opinion of course). Poulin is another young player, who could possibly become a third line center or winger as the roster evolves. He’s an intelligent player, he’s fast and has a big motor, and he’s physical. Fits in well with the age of the new core, and could be a very useful player that can slide up and down the lineup. I’d play him a year in the AHL, move Evans and let him earn a role in 2024-2025.

Trade 3:

Waive goodbye to Armia.


Caufield - Suzuki - Dach
Newhook - Pinto - Anderson
Slafkovsky - Monahan - Gallagher
Harvey-Pinard - Evans - Pearson
Pezzetta

Matheson - Barron
Guhle - Savard
Xhekaj - Kovacevic

Montembeault
Allen

OTT says no, could easily get a 1st + prospect at worst from a COL / VGK type of team.

Harris is better now than Poulin and may have more potential if as you mention his ceiling is to be a 3rd liner...

 

[Mad]

Couple of deals I’d explore:

Trade 1:

With the Sens cap situation, and the reported large gap in contract value, I’d take a run at Shane Pinto. My offer would be:

To Ottawa: Pittsburgh Penguins 2nd round pick (2025), Minnesota Wild 3rd round pick, Jesse Ylonen.

To Montreal: Shane Pinto

Sens recoup some draft pick value and add a league minimum contract/serviceable player, that keeps them cap compliant. Habs get a very young, team controlled, second line center with size/talent/ability to score.

Trade 2:

To Pittsburgh - Jordan Harris

To Montreal - Samuel Poulin

Pens are in a “win now” mode and will need some NHL quality defensemen to play in the bottom 6, and can still be relied upon. Harris is a steady, improving player and would thrive in that role on a contender (in my opinion of course). Poulin is another young player, who could possibly become a third line center or winger as the roster evolves. He’s an intelligent player, he’s fast and has a big motor, and he’s physical. Fits in well with the age of the new core, and could be a very useful player that can slide up and down the lineup. I’d play him a year in the AHL, move Evans and let him earn a role in 2024-2025.

Trade 3:

Waive goodbye to Armia.


Caufield - Suzuki - Dach
Newhook - Pinto - Anderson
Slafkovsky - Monahan - Gallagher
Harvey-Pinard - Evans - Pearson
Pezzetta

Matheson - Barron
Guhle - Savard
Xhekaj - Kovacevic

Montembeault
Allen

Pinto is worth way more than what you are offering for him. If you value him as a young #2 center, like you seem to, be ready to pay the price associated with it.

Ottawa will get a way better return for him if they decide to trade him + some extra value as he’s cost controlled and still pretty young.

Harris has more value than Poulin, he’s experienced some success in the NHL and will only get better, even if I expect him to be the odd man out at one point, I don’t think it will be for Poulin.

We don’t even know the extent of the problems he went through last season and if those are really behind him.

 

[ReHabs]

Something strange about this roster... even with Hoffman gone it seems like the roster is clogged up and allocated for at least another year... but we have no elite talent either on this bottom-tier roster. This is going to be a difficult year for sure, but there's light at the end of the tunnel.

We have four upcoming UFAs: Tanner Pearson (3.25), Sean Monahan (2), Chris Wideman (0.7), and Samuel Montembeault (1) = c. 7m
We have four upcoming RFAs: Jesse Yloenen (0.8), Gustav Lindstroem (0.95), Justin Barron (0.92), and Arber Xhekaj (0.8) = c. 2.5m
Sub-total: 9.5m

Also about 2.5m in dead cap coming off the books (Alzner + Eddy).
Total: c. 12m

I figure Xhekaj, Barron and Monty will be retained at no more than 6.5m combined. Leaving just c. 6m + whatever amount the cap jumps up (let's guess a 4m jump) so that leaves 'just' 10m in cap space to improve a bottom-tier roster + Carey Price on LTIR giving c. 20.5m (Capfriendly says we'll have 13+10.5, c. 23.5m).

The following season we have an even better outlook with a lot of bloat expiring. Dvorak, Armia, Savard, and Evans + a few others. That's 15.8m just with them four and Petry's cap-retention expiring, there's some RFAs and others too.

The interesting twist is while we have a lot of cap space coming up, we don't have much in the way of trade assets that have much value -- it doesn't seem like many of our prospects are particularly desired across the league (ex. Kidney, Mesar, Farrell, Roy, etc.).

All that said, there is a lot of space to shore up this team. What can Hughes accomplish?

 

[RationalExpectations]

Something strange about this roster... even with Hoffman gone it seems like the roster is clogged up and allocated for at least another year... but we have no elite talent either on this bottom-tier roster. This is going to be a difficult year for sure, but there's light at the end of the tunnel.

We have four upcoming UFAs: Tanner Pearson (3.25), Sean Monahan (2), Chris Wideman (0.7), and Samuel Montembeault (1) = c. 7m
We have four upcoming RFAs: Jesse Yloenen (0.8), Gustav Lindstroem (0.95), Justin Barron (0.92), and Arber Xhekaj (0.8) = c. 2.5m
Sub-total: 9.5m

Also about 2.5m in dead cap coming off the books (Alzner + Eddy).
Total: c. 12m

I figure Xhekaj, Barron and Monty will be retained at no more than 6.5m combined. Leaving just c. 6m + whatever amount the cap jumps up (let's guess a 4m jump) so that leaves 'just' 10m in cap space to improve a bottom-tier roster + Carey Price on LTIR giving c. 20.5m (Capfriendly says we'll have 13+10.5, c. 23.5m).

The following season we have an even better outlook with a lot of bloat expiring. Dvorak, Armia, Savard, and Evans + a few others. That's 15.8m just with them four and Petry's cap-retention expiring, there's some RFAs and others too.

That's a lot of space to shore up this team. What can Hughes accomplish with this set-up?

The tricky thing is that the Habs have a lot of young guys projecting to be good NHLer but not top end players, I guess the cap space will be used
a) to bring a guy in his prime to cement top 6F or top 4D knowing he will pull the team during the first years and the team will need to push him in the last years (see Hamilton in NJD last year, that could be Nylander, Lindholm, Hanifin, Pesce on the top of my head).
b) to overpay for a veteran before retirement (see Perry or Foligno in CHI, that could be Martinez, Marchessault, Perron…)
c) trade for RFAs whishing to leave their team in their last year (Tkachuk last year, which could be Pettersson if you believe the rumors)

 

[ReHabs]

The tricky thing is that the Habs have a lot of young guys projecting to be good NHLer but not top end players, I guess the cap space will be used
a) to bring a guy in his prime to cement top 6F or top 4D knowing he will pull the team during the first years and the team will need to push him in the last years (see Hamilton in NJD last year, that could be Nylander, Lindholm, Hanifin, Pesce on the top of my head).
b) to overpay for a veteran before retirement (see Perry or Foligno in CHI, that could be Martinez, Marchessault, Perron…)
c) trade for RFAs whishing to leave their team in their last year (Tkachuk last year, which could be Pettersson if you believe the rumors)

It's very tricky because without top-end players you're pretty much toast.

Hughes, through his otherwise delicate movements, has bet the house on Suzuki + Caufield + Dach + Newhook + Slafkovsky to provide this top-end player core. It doesn't matter how good our defense might be (we certainly don't have top-end players on defense yet, either) but without a forward core that can compete with the Atlantic and the rest of the East, there isn't much point to any of this.

As an example, is Caufield a 70pt sniper or a 90pt sniper? Is Suzuki a two-way 60-70pt C or does he have upside for 80pts? Dach, what's his ceiling?

A quick look around the league, it seems you need three to five players to get over 65-70pts in order to be a heavyweight team. I made a filter for 0.8ppg and gp >10 the results are below. 0.8ppg is 65pts in 82 games. It isn't the perfect yardstick but it should something to keep in mind when evaluating the roster. Essentially the question is: when will we have three to five 65pt players?

Of course there are caveats, BOS smoked the league and only had two... but they also had a 113pt player (170% of a 65pt player!) and Patrice Bergeron. A 65pt defenseman is more impressive than a 65pt forward... etc. This is just a rough way to look at it.

Note I put players who were traded on the team to which they were traded, ie Horvat counts for NYI and Meier counts for NJD.
[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]Team[/TD]
[TD]Number of players >= 0.8ppg (min gp 10)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]ANA[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]ARI[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BOS[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]BUF[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CAL[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CAR[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CHI[/TD]
[TD]0[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]COL[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]CBJ[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DAL[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DET[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]EDM[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]FLA[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]LAK[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MIN[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]MTL[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NJD[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NSH[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NYI[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NYR[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]OTT[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]PHI[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]PIT[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SEA[/TD]
[TD]1[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]SJS[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]STL[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TBL[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]TOR[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]VAN[/TD]
[TD]4[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]VGK[/TD]
[TD]3[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]WPG[/TD]
[TD]5[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]WSH[/TD]
[TD]2[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
All three of Mean, Mode, and Median among all NHL teams for players at or above 0.8ppg was 3.

All three of Mean, Mode, and Median among playoff NHL teams for players at or above 0.8ppg was 3.5, 3, and 3.5.

All three of Mean, Mode, and Median among playoff NHL teams that won a playoff series for players at or above 0.8ppg was 3.75, 5, and 4.

All three of Mean, Mode, and Median among playoff NHL teams that won two playoff series for players at or above 0.8ppg was 4, 3, and 4.

From this very rough look, it seems to me (all else being equal) you need to have at around four players above 0.8ppg to be a serious team that makes noise in the playoffs.