Dach for Dubois this summer means a large-ish "plus" on the Montreal side.
I think HuGo will take the gamble that next summer, that "plus" is much smaller because:
- Dubois is RFA again, 1 year away from UFA
- Dach "should" improve if healthy with a role that is better suited for him
Until then Dach will be cheaper for 22-23 which is kinda necessary until Drouin/Byron/Dadonov are gone.
If Dach really blossoms this season then you keep him and wait until 2024 to see if you still need Dubois.
Especially now that Dubois is signed with WIN for the year, there is too much sense behind waiting (at least until the trade deadline) for a deal involving anything for Dubois.
The advantage Montreal has is two-fold.
For starters, near year's end, WIN is well aware it will have to embark on another negotiation that would do nothing more than secure Dubois for just one more year with them. If, at this year's trade deadline WIN gets a good return as though Dubois was a rental, it wouldn't be worse than what they would get the following year, IMO. A sign and trade deal is always possible, but is also not guaranteed.
Secondly, Montreal has the benefit of one more year of development/progression for every single player on the roster and within the system. What the Habs end up offering at the trade deadline this year -- if they make an offer then -- will be more confirmed as value rather than just be speculative in value.
The added bonus is the distinct possibility that roster players bounce back from a dismal season last year. In a development model for the upcoming season, many veterans will benefit from a more open approach to playing hockey under Martin St-Louis and should improve their production, much as they had under St-Louis in the latter portion of the season last year.
Dvorak, if he keeps his production pace that he had under St-Louis, should be a much more alluring trade chip, for example. Just staying healthy and keeping the pace that he had over the entire season last year, including the horrible production under Ducharme, would give him a 16G, 32A, 48P production over an 82-game season.
His pace under St-Louis, however, would give him a 12G, 47A, 59P production, much closer to Dubois' 60-point production last year, even if that comes with less goals. Dvorak's 58% performance taking draws in the dot is also not a negligible factor.
One player is not the other, but a closer comparison with Dvorak finding his wings under St-Louis, a prospect that is coming into his own after another year under his belt and FLA's 1st round draft pick could make the deal more palatable at this year's trade deadline.
It could end up being Dvorak + Ylonen + FLA's unprotected 1st round pick in 2023? All depends on how our players produce, but an extra year to help turn things around or help players progress is in Montreal's advantage.
Not every player will be in Montreal's plans for the future, regardless of how well they produce this upcoming season.