HF Habs: Trade Proposal Thread #79

[Beendair Donedat]

This is Gold.

 

[Belial]

Why would you get a 100 point player who is in his early 20s when you would lose a 30 point injury prone centre in the process?


Because developed players are worth more than prospects and draftees.

Otherwise it is foolish to prefer a Mystery Box over a developed elite player. It is beyond foolish, it is downright ridiculous to prefer Slaf + Dach + FLA 1st over Tkachuk.

First of all, that line just clicked this season and they just destroyed their opposition the entire season on the way to some great numbers.

Is Tkachuk really a 100 points player without Johnny and Elias? I have huge doubts he is.

He didn't even have one point per game season before this monster season.

I don't believe he will be worth the assets and the money he'll get paid for his next contract.

 

[Runner77]

Them to us or Us to them?

 

[Justin11]

Glancing over at the Winnipeg board and here's some comedy for y'all. Some of them are expecting Chevaldayoff to focus on Guhle, Barron and Suzuki.

The first two at least make sense in a vacuum but Suzuki? Why are we trading the better player? Some Jet fans are going to be in for a very rude awakening when PLD gets traded.

To be fair, reverse the roles, we would be ´´hoping’´ for the same return.

Poor Jets fans - you have to feel bad for them. Have a feeling the return they get for PLD will also likely want out from Winnipeg eventually.

 

[HuGort]

They knew Petry was going

 

[Skip Bayless]

Their fans will eventually lambaste every player — just depends on whose turn it is to GTFO of there.

 

[HuGort]

Slaf/Dubois/Anderson be good second line behind Suzuki Caufield line

 

[CaptainKirk]

They knew Petry was going

WE knew Petry was going. No “insider” called him to Pittsburgh for Matheson. That came out of nowhere.

 

[BarracudaMtl]

To be fair, reverse the roles, we would be ´´hoping’´ for the same return.

Poor Jets fans - you have to feel bad for them. Have a feeling the return they get for PLD will also likely want out from Winnipeg eventually.

Like in the Petry case?

I was sure hoping for a 1rd pick in return, but the crude reality it me on the face

 

[Belial]

Like in the Petry case?

I was sure hoping for a 1rd pick in return, but the crude reality it me on the face

Matheson is a first-round pick.

 

[HuGort]

WE knew Petry was going. No “insider” called him to Pittsburgh for Matheson. That came out of nowhere.

Habs tried to trade Petry multiple times. They tried all over the league

 

[ReHabs]

First of all, that line just clicked this season and they just destroyed their opposition the entire season on the way to some great numbers.

Is Tkachuk really a 100 points player without Johnny and Elias? I have huge doubts he is.

He didn't even have one point per game season before this monster season.

I don't believe he will be worth the assets and the money he'll get paid for his next contract.

This is a good question. Is he a 100 point player? Maybe. If scoring remains high I don’t see him far from PPG. His career rates is around .88 PPG and that includes his early seasons on a weak team. I don’t see why he should regress to lower than 80 points.

The point is more general though: a developed, confirmed highly productive player is worth a lot more than projects, prospects, and picks.

Keep in mind that every top pick in the 2022 draft was said to be likelier to end up a second liner than a sure-fire top player. In fact, it was this lack of differentiation between the top prospects that allowed Slafkovsky’s profile to rise to the top — according to pre-draft analysis he would’ve not been a top3 pick in any other “ordinary” draft cohort. Now that he’s a Habs pick of course every Habs Homer in the media acts like he is a sure success and the next Kovalchuk or something.

So would I trade Slaf ++ for Tkachuk? You’re damn right I would. Slaf’s maximal upside is a 80 point player, his downside is bust just like every other Habs “project with tools” pick. Tkachuk is for real and plays the exact way we would want Slafkovsky to play.

But the Habs don’t have cap space for Slafkovsky so it’s just a hypothetical exercise to talk about his acquisition.

 

[FrankMTL]

I think we should all just sit back and enjoy the ride that will be this next season.

 

[Habs Halifax]

That wasn't my point though. Of course the odds of Dubois being Dubois are 100% while a pick is a pick and carries uncertainty.

Let's throw numbers around, let's say you have 25% chance that picks becomes a close-to-better impact player as Dubois + ELC + 1st RFA deal. As well as being a more "universal" currency to be used in trades compared to PLD @ 7M$ or whatever. This is significant value brought to the table.

We agree on it not being a dealbreaker. My point was that should be the only futures that is part of the deal if it's put on the table.

The undetermined factor is how accurate that 25% chance is in terms of a pick around 20 turning into a legit 2C in the NHL? I did understand your ELC advantage but the chances a pick around 20 turns into a 2C during their ELC is very rare. It's less than 25%. Maybe then could end up a 2C but that's after the ELC. Guys that shine early in their ELC are picked earlier. Of course you could hit with a Robert Thomas but for every Robert Thomas hits, there is way more Poehling's around that range.

Unprotected 1st? It's possible Hughes was pushing for the Flames 1st cause we knew where it was with other adds and that unprotected 1st is off the table from Hughes. We can only guess.

Regardless, if we do trade the Panthers 1st, we are getting very good value in that package. That's not just some throw in. Panthers 1st, Kidney, Dvorak, and another contract to match salary in and salary out is a solid offer based on the circumstances. It's possible Gorton and Hughes are offering less.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Or he's traded to a contender and gets really close to the cup and decides he'd rather stick with the contending team to try and win a cup. A million things can change over the next 2 years, there is zero guarantee that Dubois won't end up in a better situation then he was in in CLB/Peg and decide to stay there for the next 6-7 years and only come home to MTL after that.

That is possible but what contender is going to pay more value than what we are offering and also get the salary in to match salary out? What contender is going to do a redo on what the Jets tried (convince him to extend) and also give the Jets the value they want? You could have said exactly what you just said about Trouba back when which would have been false.

Lets look at the Avs? They could use a 2C in Dubois. Care to play this game cause I think there is some value to this in terms of other teams thinking about Dubois? What contract goes the other way and what futures do they offer that trump the Panthers 1st and Kidney? Sakic surely tries to get an extension in place before the deal is made right? And can they afford a $8M center at 2C?

Do the Jets prefer this over our offers?
Girard and Avs 1st
for
Dubois

Sakic doesn't get Dubois on an extension cause he prefers Dubois at his qualifying offer of $6M? Then what next season when he is asking for $8M+ at the same time Mackinnon needs a new contract. Right now, for 23/24, Avs have 12 players signed with about $26.5M in cap space. Mackinnon is getting $10M and the discount he talked about in recent years is not asking for $12M. So that's 13 players signed with $16.5M in cap. Subract Dubois at $8M. That's 14 players signed with $8.5M in cap. 9 players would be at under $1M. Doable? You tell me cause I bet Sakic is thinking about it

 

[Habs Halifax]

I'd do that trade all day but will the Jets? You might be able to wait til the deadline for a better offer, or you could just keep him for two years.

KC is in an insanely hard place right now. Not only would you not want to accommodate him and move him here but you're not getting full value for him no matter what you do.

The angle we need to take is what are other teams offering?

 

[Expos94]

Since becoming a hab, JD has averaged 50 pts for an 82 game pace.................you think he can get 50 pts in about 55-58 games this upcoming season?
I am thinking he plays 25 games, and shuts it down, again........look at the history, and this is where he is headed, realistically.
Would love to be wrong, and get a 1st for him, but....................highly unlikely.

You re probably right, I don't want him anywhere near this team but because it's his contract year certain players tend to turn it up a notch . I m thinking he's one of those guys so I would gamble and see how he reacts. Maybe 50 points was a little heavy lol

 

[Expos94]

Five years of Drouin and you’re still holding out hope?

Zero hope just saying it's his contract year so he's probably gonna play a little harder to rack up some points. Why trade him for a fourth round pick now what's the rush ? Let's see how he reacts then make a decision. But I m with you I don't want him on this team after that . Biggest p***y in the league

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

Watch those hypocrite sports media pundits in Toronto and the muppets on social media rooting for the Leafs not say a bad word about Tkachuck wanting out of Calgary while they eviscerate PLD for doing basically the same thing.

I don't have cable so I never watch any of that.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

If someone wouldn’t trade Slafkovsky + Dach + FLA 1st for M.Tkachuk I would genuinely question their interest in having a winning hockey team.

Some people ignore cap considerations when thinking trades. It sort of makes sense. If someone watches the games, but doesn't follow the GM team organization stuff, of course they just want to acquire good players, and don't think about contracts etc.

 

[BLONG7]

You re probably right, I don't want him anywhere near this team but because it's his contract year certain players tend to turn it up a notch . I m thinking he's one of those guys so I would gamble and see how he reacts. Maybe 50 points was a little heavy lol

Hey, we can hope, it's just year 9 of his career, he does not seem to fit anywhere in the lineup and definitely does not deserve top 6 minutes, but who knows what will happen.
Let's hope being a contract year, actually means something to him.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

Matheson is a first-round pick.

It was a smart move to get contract for contract because, while Petry's contract made him harder to trade in this cap logjammed off-season, so did Matheson's contract make him hard to move. So both players were easier to acquire than they normally would have been, so they sort of even each other out.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

Zero hope just saying it's his contract year so he's probably gonna play a little harder to rack up some points. Why trade him for a fourth round pick now what's the rush ? Let's see how he reacts then make a decision. But I m with you I don't want him on this team after that . Biggest p***y in the league

I definitely think the Habs should play and give their UFAs-to-be all the opportunities they can to prove their worth before the TDL.

I'm just bummed to hear that Byron might be done for good. Both for his sake, but also from the Habs interest I think a healthy Byron who played well in the regular season could fetch a decent return at the TDL.

 

[sandviper]

What a disaster of a franchise. Their fans will eventually lambaste every player — just depends on whose turn it is to GTFO of there.

Hunt, kill, attack…

Guess they can’t figure anything out over there.

 

[TomKosto]

WE knew Petry was going. No “insider” called him to Pittsburgh for Matheson. That came out of nowhere.

Pittsburgh came out a lot in the rumors...But I agree, Matheson was never mentionned.