HF Habs: Trade Proposal Thread #79

[Saundies]

I think A would be pretty petty. We'll see. I think a combo of B & C is where they potentially get their best return. Sign him for 2 years. Put him in front of the camera and make him answer media questions. Keep him but make it difficult. Don't give in to his demands as it sets a bad precedent. Then at the Trade Deadline, trade him as a rental to a team trying to make a push for the cup. The risk is, how will he react? Will he have a productive season? Will he be a distraction? Will teams even want to trade for an uninspired player, knowing he wants to be elsewhere? Will that potential return be any better than what MTL is offering and if so, is it worth the headache for the season?

All good and valid questions. That's my big question too: would you offer a ton for any player knowing for sure he's gone in 2 years? Or a year and a half? Or one year? (depending how long this drags out) You do when you have even some sort of hope you can sell him on staying and make the deal a homerun, but if you know a guy is set on getting out no matter, do you give up that upper tier prospect? That higher draft pick? I'm not sure.

We've seen in the past disgruntled players shipped out before the season started. Patches comes to mind. What would he have been like all year if we would have kept him instead? Hard to say

 

[Takeru]

Yes, but isn't that true with every trade offer?

Difference here is he presumably signs here in no more than 2 years either way, which is rarely the case in trade talks.

 

[417]

Looks to me as if Gorton is using his NYR retool blueprint.

- Target under 23 NHL experienced talent (Dach similar to Zibenajad acquisition)

- Target asset(s) on teams who want to play for Habs limiting their GMs leverage power (PLD similar to Trouba acquisition)

- not sure how Gorton intends on pulling off the Panarin UFA front as I don’t see Huberdeau hitting the market

One other point - Gorton brought in highly heralded BU head coach David Quinn at start of their rebuild in 2018… like MSL was brought in.

It’s clear to me this will not be a 3, 4, 5+ year rebuild. Even w Trouba, Panarin and Fox NYR still finished w 1OA pick (Lafreniere)

22-23 will be the last year of rebuilding IMO, it’ll be a playoff push starting next summer

Whether the strategy will work out is TBD..

Hughes and Horton aren't reinventing the wheel.

Team has an opportunity to add a player they think can make them better...you try to acquire him.

 

[Milhouse40]

I'm not saying he's likely to regress. I just see people penciling him in for 10+ years and I am not that confident.

I worry specifically that his defense is not a strength of his game, which limits his two-way upside. And I worry that he might be better suited on the LW, because of position value. And I worry about the circumstances of him leaving two teams already. And in general, he's currently a solid second-liner, and when I watch hockey it's not all that rare for solid second-liners to all of sudden to be better suited better for the 3rd line.
So it's not really that I see more downside than upside, I just see some people assuming all the upside will happen and discounting any possibility of any downside, and I think that is a dangerous way to look at any player.

And finally, my main concern is that I see people discussing him almost like a prospect because he is 24, and while still young, all his cheap years are gone now and so he is contractually not any different from any other veteran because he will be paid like one. What I mean by that is it's not very useful to discuss any NHL player just by what he is without also including the AAV. Gallagher was a great player when he was making what was it? 3.5M? Heck he'd still be pretty good at that price. But at 6.5M he is a regular target on these boards. Every player's worth has to be judged in relation to his contract. I worry that PLD's next contract may be expensive - and make him not worth it, especially when you factor in the cost to acquire him..

I'm not super huge on Dubois also for some of the same reasons but there's also the other side of this coin.

Dubois is still a very good player and very good player are hard to get especially in Montreal since most of them don't want to come here when it's UFA time.

There's potential and there's certainty.

Dubois is certainty and certainty comes with big money. Only way to get them is through trade or UFA.
For MTL, UFA has always been a bad options but even there, it's always hard for anyone when a players have to choose from 6-7-8 teams. Every good teams added those players at some points.

The question really is.....how many options like that will presents itself in the next 5 years?

 

[waitin425]

I have a feeling that Gally could end up as the main piece going back. Just a random thought that jumped in and out of my head. But I just have a feeling.

HFJets will explode.

 

[McGees]

If you're the Jets, there are 4 options:

a) Sit him - doesn't do your team or him any good. You have a player at a key position not playing and haven't replaced him with anything. You could argue addition by subtraction attitude wise but on the ice, it's a net negative.

b) Keep him. Sign him for two years, he leaves - You lose him for nothing and have nothing to gain from the Laine trade.

c) Trade him to a team that's not MTL - definitely fine, but what value does a guy like PLD hold to these teams as a two year rental? You're still not going to get full value for him. Worth a 1st, certainly but if we're offering Florida's is it going to be better than that? If they're truly a contender, not likely. If these offers are more underwhelming than MTL's, do you do it anyway to spite the player? Maybe.

d) Trade him to MTL - you look like you give in to his demands, he gets exactly what he wants, and you probably get a lot less than he's worth. Potentially the best offer on the table, depending.

The problem is: none of these are really good options. But a decision has to be made.

You don't lose him for nothing with B) option.
You trade him at that deadline for a nice haul. (1st, solid prospect and a roster player)
This is the option I think they do and makes the most sense if MTL isn't gonna give up great assets.

 

[Richiebottles]

I have a feeling that Gally could end up as the main piece going back. Just a random thought that jumped in and out of my head. But I just have a feeling.

HFJets will explode.

It could make sense.

They have HUGE issues in that locker room, Gally might do wonders for them actually.

 

[Archijerej]

Difference here is he presumably signs here in no more than 2 years either way, which is rarely the case in trade talks.

I'm not quite sure we should be interested in Dubois at UFA money and term.

The thing that makes this opportunity so attractive is precisely the fact that we can solidify the top half of our center line long term at around $15M. This potentially gives us a tremendous freedom of maneuver in planning and building this team moving forward.

 

[Captain Mountain]

It could make sense.

They have HUGE issues in that locker room, Gally might do wonders for them actually.

Gally's strengths also cover their weaknesses.

I really doubt that he'd be a piece going the other way though.

I'm not quite sure we should be interested in Dubois at UFA money and term.

The thing that makes this opportunity so attractive is precisely the fact that we can solidify the top half of our center line long term at below $15M. This potentially gives us a tremendous freedom of maneuver in planning and building this team moving forward.

I don't think even Montreal gets Dubois at a contract that looks like that right now. He'd be looking for at least what Suzuki signed for. The benefit for doing it now is that he's younger, you get the 8th year and the cap will likely balloon in 2025 and players will be more cognizant of that in 2024.

 

[Takeru]

I have a feeling that Gally could end up as the main piece going back. Just a random thought that jumped in and out of my head. But I just have a feeling.

HFJets will explode.

Lord in heaven let it be true

 

[Sterling Archer]

I'm not saying he's likely to regress. I just see people penciling him in for 10+ years and I am not that confident.

I worry specifically that his defense is not a strength of his game, which limits his two-way upside. And I worry that he might be better suited on the LW, because of position value. And I worry about the circumstances of him leaving two teams already. And in general, he's currently a solid second-liner, and when I watch hockey it's not all that rare for solid second-liners to all of sudden to be better suited better for the 3rd line.
So it's not really that I see more downside than upside, I just see some people assuming all the upside will happen and discounting any possibility of any downside, and I think that is a dangerous way to look at any player.

And finally, my main concern is that I see people discussing him almost like a prospect because he is 24, and while still young, all his cheap years are gone now and so he is contractually not any different from any other veteran because he will be paid like one. What I mean by that is it's not very useful to discuss any NHL player just by what he is without also including the AAV. Gallagher was a great player when he was making what was it? 3.5M? Heck he'd still be pretty good at that price. But at 6.5M he is a regular target on these boards. Every player's worth has to be judged in relation to his contract. I worry that PLD's next contract may be expensive - and make him not worth it, especially when you factor in the cost to acquire him..

His NHL numbers have been quite consistent. More so when you consider how he was coached and treated by Torts and has changed teams and thrown into a new system. He just turned 24 and hasn’t even hit his prime yet so I don’t envision any regression for a player who’ll be on a team he wants to be, playing with teammates in his own cohort with a coach that emphasizes his style of play. As for his defensive ability, ask Mathews what he thinks. PLD completely shut him down when he was given that task.

Any player comparison you make is always a worst case scenario and not considered a more likely scenario that he stays the same and has some better years down the road. If that was the case, who’s going to turn down a 60 power forward center who isn’t afraid to get physical and doesn’t get pushed around?

To be fair, it sounds like a lot of your ideas about him are your feelings and not based on actual player evaluation and experience. He’s been very good, very consistent and players with his size and skill set are incredibly rare. I wouldn’t give up the sun and the moon to get him but he would no doubt be a top 3 talent on the Habs right now so I don’t understand the reasoning behind not wanting a player like that on your team.

 

[Archijerej]

Gally's strengths also cover their weaknesses.

I really doubt that he'd be a piece going the other way though.



I don't think even Montreal gets Dubois at a contract that looks like that right now. He'd be looking for at least what Suzuki signed for. The benefit for doing it now is that he's younger, you get the 8th year and the cap will likely balloon in 2025 and players will be more cognizant of that in 2024.

I've corrected my post to "around $15M".

Still, the point stands.

 

[Archijerej]

Hughes said himself, he wanted Dach and Chicago was asking for picks so he went and found a team who wanted to trade their high pick. That’s the reason he went and get the 13th.

Dubois has nothing to do with it but some people close their ears and continue to think the deal was for him lol.

You realise that nothing of the above proves that Dubois "has nothing to do with it"?

 

[Sorinth]

Keep in mind the Jets aren't necessarily losing him for nothing in 2 years, they would quite likely get a 1st+ at the TD when he's becoming a UFA. So there's not much incentive to take less then that in a trade now unless they think keeping him for 1.5years would create a problem in the dressing room which I don't think is actually as big a concern as some make it out to be.

 

[Runner77]

This is bullshit and anyone with an ounce MKa of intellectual honesty knows it.

Thanks for that ringing endorsement. Now do me a favor and go make someone else happy.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Montreal would be stupid to walk away from a 24 year-old top-6 center who's gung-ho about their franchise. Colossally stupid.

It is not so stupid when the window the top 6 center needs to be acquired by is not immediate, and when 1st round picks could fetch other needed pieces like a 1st line player or top pairing D.

I'm not saying to walk away no matter what. I'm saying we should not offer a first round pick PLUS a roster player that could fetch a first round pick plus prospects and picks, asd some have suggested, especially when the player you acquire is no longer cost controlled. Value is high but cap hit is high too, and right now, cap space is not plentiful. In the next 24 months, cap space opens up a lot, and whether Dubois is avaiable or not, it can be used to get needed pieces.

 

[Archijerej]

Keep in mind the Jets aren't necessarily losing him for nothing in 2 years, they would quite likely get a 1st+ at the TD when he's becoming a UFA. So there's not much incentive to take less then that in a trade now unless they think keeping him for 1.5years would create a problem in the dressing room which I don't think is actually as big a concern as some make it out to be.

You mean someone is going to trade a (late) FIRST ROUND PICK for him?!!

It's impossible. If there's anything Bervevin's years have taught us, it's that you NEVER trade those.

 

[Spring in Fialta]

It is not so stupid when the window the top 6 center needs to be acquired by is not immediate

I'll stop here because that's something that I'll always address before getting in the nit and grit of a deal. I think the philosophy that a team should acquire a player by window or timeline to be an extremely fallacious one that leaves you at a high risk of keeping your team bad and full of holes. Before even getting into the idea of what a 1st round pick can fetch you (which have been extremely overrated at this point, especially outside of lottery picks) a team should never, never, never pass the opportunity to fetch a good player or fill a hole based on an idea of a window.

IMO, a team should never:

- Decide to acquire players by order (i.e., draft first then sign UFAs)
- Decide that a need is not immediate based on losing games/a rebuild (New York refused to do that with Trouba and look at them today - they're coming up)

You acquire players by the window of opportunity, not a deadset timeline of when you think you'll be competing. Because the former is exactly how you end up competing. Thinking you shouldn't acquire Dubois 'because we're not winning this upcoming season' is IMO, misguided in the extreme and you have zero guarantee that your pick will turn out (chances are it actually won't) or that as good/young a player will be available in the future. You strike when you know you can have it all set in motion. 24 year-old top-6 center is available and is dying to play for you? Do it. Don't avoid it because maybe later something better maybe yeah. You'll stay bad forever that way.

 

[Guy Larose]

Anderson spending a lot of time with Suzuki this summer...doubt he gets traded, seems very involved.

 

[HABitual Fan]

I'm just worried about giving assets for a player who has wanted out from 2 teams after a couple of seasons. If you can't extend him when you acquire him,no guarantee he signs here instead of chasing the money. I would wait a year before committing.

 

[waitin425]

Anderson spending a lot of time with Suzuki this summer...doubt he gets traded, seems very involved.

Listen to that ovation! This team and it's players means so much more than the average American south team. PLD WANTS to come to Montreal. In an era where so many players want the warm south, or low income taxes, or no spotlight.....we have a homegrown player wanting to step directly into the fire and be part of something.....something as simple as what is represented in this video.

BRING PLD HOME!

 

[donghabs98]

Poor Toffoli, could find himself in another rebuilding situation and on the move again.

 

[John B]

The ideal that Winnipeg is going to take scraps for Dubois is ridiculous. The price is high and will remain high. Winnipeg can sign him to a two year deal and move him next offseason or at the TDL in 2024. There is no bargain to be had here. If the Habs acquire him, they will be giving up a 1st rounder, a good prospect, and likely a good/solid roster player. Maybe even two roster players to make the cap work considering Dubois is likely to get in the $7M dollar range long term.

 

[le_sean]

I'm just worried about giving assets for a player who has wanted out from 2 teams after a couple of seasons. If you can't extend him when you acquire him,no guarantee he signs here instead of chasing the money. I would wait a year before committing.

Columbus I could live with, but I would have also really hated Torts.

Winnipeg, however, I could not deal with. Awful city. Mediocre team. Douchebags in the dressing room. No thanks, get me out of there as quick as possible.

 

[HomaridII]

My left nut for Matthew Tkachuk!