A Jets fan here, who has more or less lost his entire trust in the Jets' front office. No ill will, no bad intentions, just a bunch of opinions that I have come up with about this Dubois debacle.
I reckon that if a Dubois to MTL is to happen, it happens this summer - or it does not happen at all. Reasons?
1) No matter what, Dubois will play next year. As a 24-year-old, holding out to strong arm the Jets does not get him closer to UFA. Holding out would waste him a lot of money, possible even more in the long term. Further, I'd assume that the Jets have to get comfortable with the risk of Dubois pulling of his previous stunts again with us, because to get value for him from anyone, he has to either be traded now or to play ball before UFA. Thus, both sides are motivated to get a decision made sooner rather than later.
2) The Jets are in a position where waiting around is not an option. Hellebuyck has two years left on his deal, and contrary to (what seems to be) the consensus around HFJets, the team will enter a full-blown freefall immediately after he departs for a competitive organisation in July 2024. If this is to be prevented, we need to have a coherent, concrete, and believable vision on offer to Hellebuyck and our other UFAs in 2023/24. Having Dubois around is unlikely to help, if it brings uncertainty and instability with it.
3) GM Hughes is and will be under immense pressure to fix one of your worst long-term problems: your cap structure. Between Anderson, Gallagher, Armia, and Dvorak, there is almost 19 million of long-term cap space wasted and severely hindering the rebuild. None of those four represent good value for the money spent, nor do they really fit in with your plans for the future. Add in the much more valuable Evans, Suzuki, and a rough estimation of Caufield's next deal, and you have around 32-35 million of cap allocated towards what still is a rather mediocre group of seven forwards. That is a f***ing lot. And since all of that cap will be in the books when Dubois becomes a UFA, what do you think are the chances of fitting his large UFA deal in there (which he will go for, given that it might be his only chance of getting one)? What do those chances look like after factoring in the potentially enormous paydays of Slafkovsky and Dach? Please note that none of this takes into considerations the back end of the Habs, which... well, is also less than ideal. I'm sure some of you have noticed the problem: you might well think that Dubois wants to come to MTL anyway (and you would be right), but in two years' time, you might not have the option of getting him for free.
Is this to say that you should overpay now to not lose an asset that you don't have? Absolutely not. But if the Habs start planning around Dubois two years before he comes there, a lot can go wrong in that time. It could result in passing on a really good UFA deal next year to preserve cap space for July 2024. It could mean a bridge deal to Caufield, when a long-term deal could be reached instead. It could mean an increasing pressure to make moves under the gun, because Dubois' plan to go to Montréal is already telegraphed to anyone who cares to pay attention. That is also why I predict that the Habs will pass on Dubois if an agreement is not reached this year: Hughes seems smart enough not to allocate his assets on the basis of a promise that someone will come to play for him in two years. You don't even know which level of Dubois you'll get, so it would be foolish to even attempt making your own plans work around him. I would be livid if Cheveldayoff did that, but then again, I'm livid that he still has a job with the Jets anyway.
4) Finally, I would imagine that both GMs would want to find some kind of peace regarding this situation. The reasons are vastly different, but the pressure from fans, ownership, and media will remain strong regardless.
OK, on to the details of the deal, which we have now established is going to happen. Assuming that the Jets are only dealing Dubois here, I think the following can be stated:
- the Habs are not dealing Suzuki, Caufield, Slafkovsky, their own 1sts, or Mesar. Should be obvious to all.
- all players with trade protection are blocking any deal to Winnipeg, meaning that Petry, Edmundson, Anderson, Gallagher, and Dadonov are not in the deal either. Also, the first four are absolute non-starters anyway.
Given what I said above, you need to dump long-term cap to alleviate your future cap issues, and we need to have a semi-competitive roster in place next year. Unfortunately, we have no need, place, room or anything of the like for defensemen on expensive contracts (we have plenty of our own, trust me). Thus, the acceptable cap "dumps" are Dvorak and Hoffman, both of which are very usable at the NHL level. Dvorak makes the most sense as a C, but I would be open to taking on Hoffman (as well) to facilitate a deal. Note that I don't consider Evans as an option here, because that cap hit hardly needs to be offloaded, and Armia's third year with diminishing on-ice results is a non-starter without a serious incentive coming with him (meaning Guhle). Then, futures need to be included to bridge the gap, which depend on whether Hoffman or Byron are included. The more of your cap changes hands, the better the prospect going with them. I have this in mind as a baseline:
Dubois for Dvorak, Byron, FLA 1st 2023 (unprotected), and a prospect not named Guhle/Slaf/Mesar.
As some of you have cleverly noted, the first rounder has to be unprotected, because the protection could end up putting your own 1st in '24 to play, which I'm sure you would find unpleasant as hell. I don't think the Jets can pull off Guhle (especially with how unimpressive your D corps looks for the present and for the future), but the other prospects should be attainable.
What if Dach is in the mix, which I personally find unlikely? I would imagine it can be done: perhaps like this?
Dubois for Dach, Hoffman, FLA 1st 2023 (unprotected), and a prospect not in your top 8?
Hoffman needs to be in the deal now to dump more dollars, since I find it unlikely that you would give up both Dvorak and Dach. Since Dach is likely worth more that Dvorak, the prospect in question should be quite a bit worse than in the first proposal.
Both deals are reasonable: the Habs are not giving up indispensable pieces from the pool of assets that will one day form their core, and the cap implications are at least relatively stable in the next two years. The Jets are not subjected to cap implications longer than what they would pay for Dubois, and get a package of future assets that they could get from any team looking for a top rental next year.
