HF Habs: Trade Proposal Thread #79

[OldCraig71]

Anderson is the one vet who I could see being a key part of a package... but we would need to add obviously

The Jets may have asked for Guhle or even Caufield, we don't know but obviously, it was someone that the habs have no intention of moving, or else the deal would have been done now.

 

[calder candidate]

Another team that just screw them self is Columbus adding Gaudreau might not only be a great hockey move but also at great PR move but also signing Gudbranson now they have no cap for Laine…

 

[Hannibal]

Winnipeg is trying to play hard ball by asking Suzuki. But they know that sooner or later, they will have to trade Dubois, and the return will not be what they expect. Handcuff.

 

[Milhouse40]

With all these Dubois rumors, i don't think they have any plans of tanking next year. 2022 will be the last time this team has a top 5 pick in a while. Hopefully slakovsky and dubois pan out

There's no way we can compete with the suckfest some teams like Chicago are preparing.
There's no way we move pass.....well, pretty much anyone in the east.

That's with or without Dubois.
We have D and G problems and adding a forward won't change that.

 

[CHarlie]

With PLD being at the draft and all.....that trade was definitely supposed to be for him and not Dach......very interesting turn of events

 

[Runner77]

Interesting that many here who are hoping we acquire Dubois don't think he'll move the needle and affect our 2023 tank aspirations. If he isn't good enough to move that needle, why in the hell should we trade for and invest in a high salaried 24 year old who can't stay in one spot for more than 2 years without being unhappy?

Somebody should ask Geoff since he’s spearheading the whole thing.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

PLD (50% retained) for future considerations

 

[salbutera]

This board loves to run with narratives and stat watch, PLD is a very high upside player, not really sure where the dissing and awful comparisons are coming from. He’s a very good 2C with tons of time and tools to be a 1C.

Winnipeg is a rough spot, I think his basic stat line reflect that a lot. This is a team that can’t even get Ehlers into the elite category. The Maurice era Jets were very bad at utilizing the talent at their disposal, and even worse at surrounding it. Most Jets fans would agree with this, it’s a big reason why they went from a team primed to be a perennial cup threat in 2018, to a lottery team in 2022. Before that he had to deal with John Tortorella.

My point here is not to make excuses for him, but to state that we’re in a spot where we can give Dubois what he needs to succeed. He ambitious to be here, there’s a core in place that he can grow with, we have two of the highest upside developmental staff in the league with St. Louis and Nicholas. Considering his upside, you take that chance, no matter what roster construction stage you’re in, no matter how good you think the draft could be in 12 months.

Hughes is in a VERY good spot here, if his cards are played right we’ll have a chance to pickup a potential 1C at a discount.

NYR Trouba situation has presented itself, hopefully HuGo doesn’t surrender a Pionk type that Gorton did

 

[Doc5]

PLD (50% retained) for future considerations

I understand that this is in jest but there’s currently no contract for them to retain on :p

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

I understand that this is in jest but there’s currently no contract for them to retain on :p

Future retention - Winnipeg retains 50% on all Future earnings...

 

[CaptainKirk]

Future retention - Winnipeg retains 50% on all Future earnings...

There’s only one rational way to settle this PLD situation. They must split him down the middle. MTL takes the right half in exchange for Hoffman. WPG keeps the left half.

 

[SpeedyPotato]

Why do we need Suzuki, Dubois, Dach and Dvorak?

Right now I'd see PLD as a LW on the second line. Imagine him, Dach and Anderson, that'd be a fast, skilled, big boy line.

 

[salbutera]

Interesting that many here who are hoping we acquire Dubois don't think he'll move the needle and affect our 2023 tank aspirations. If he isn't good enough to move that needle, why in the hell should we trade for and invest in a high salaried 24 year old who can't stay in one spot for more than 2 years without being unhappy?

Team building - PLD complements Suzuki’s style as top-2Cs on the team.

It’s very difficult find a young top-2C who pro-actively plays a physical game yet has the potential for 70pts.

PLDs acquisition is a no brainer - Habs will be set at C for next 10-years

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

Personally I feel like Anderson is worth about as much as PLD, plus he's signed at a good cap hit for 5 years. I doubt PLD's next contract will be very good.

 

[Maukkis]

A Jets fan here, who has more or less lost his entire trust in the Jets' front office. No ill will, no bad intentions, just a bunch of opinions that I have come up with about this Dubois debacle.

I reckon that if a Dubois to MTL is to happen, it happens this summer - or it does not happen at all. Reasons?

1) No matter what, Dubois will play next year. As a 24-year-old, holding out to strong arm the Jets does not get him closer to UFA. Holding out would waste him a lot of money, possible even more in the long term. Further, I'd assume that the Jets have to get comfortable with the risk of Dubois pulling of his previous stunts again with us, because to get value for him from anyone, he has to either be traded now or to play ball before UFA. Thus, both sides are motivated to get a decision made sooner rather than later.

2) The Jets are in a position where waiting around is not an option. Hellebuyck has two years left on his deal, and contrary to (what seems to be) the consensus around HFJets, the team will enter a full-blown freefall immediately after he departs for a competitive organisation in July 2024. If this is to be prevented, we need to have a coherent, concrete, and believable vision on offer to Hellebuyck and our other UFAs in 2023/24. Having Dubois around is unlikely to help, if it brings uncertainty and instability with it.

3) GM Hughes is and will be under immense pressure to fix one of your worst long-term problems: your cap structure. Between Anderson, Gallagher, Armia, and Dvorak, there is almost 19 million of long-term cap space wasted and severely hindering the rebuild. None of those four represent good value for the money spent, nor do they really fit in with your plans for the future. Add in the much more valuable Evans, Suzuki, and a rough estimation of Caufield's next deal, and you have around 32-35 million of cap allocated towards what still is a rather mediocre group of seven forwards. That is a f***ing lot. And since all of that cap will be in the books when Dubois becomes a UFA, what do you think are the chances of fitting his large UFA deal in there (which he will go for, given that it might be his only chance of getting one)? What do those chances look like after factoring in the potentially enormous paydays of Slafkovsky and Dach? Please note that none of this takes into considerations the back end of the Habs, which... well, is also less than ideal. I'm sure some of you have noticed the problem: you might well think that Dubois wants to come to MTL anyway (and you would be right), but in two years' time, you might not have the option of getting him for free.

Is this to say that you should overpay now to not lose an asset that you don't have? Absolutely not. But if the Habs start planning around Dubois two years before he comes there, a lot can go wrong in that time. It could result in passing on a really good UFA deal next year to preserve cap space for July 2024. It could mean a bridge deal to Caufield, when a long-term deal could be reached instead. It could mean an increasing pressure to make moves under the gun, because Dubois' plan to go to Montréal is already telegraphed to anyone who cares to pay attention. That is also why I predict that the Habs will pass on Dubois if an agreement is not reached this year: Hughes seems smart enough not to allocate his assets on the basis of a promise that someone will come to play for him in two years. You don't even know which level of Dubois you'll get, so it would be foolish to even attempt making your own plans work around him. I would be livid if Cheveldayoff did that, but then again, I'm livid that he still has a job with the Jets anyway.

4) Finally, I would imagine that both GMs would want to find some kind of peace regarding this situation. The reasons are vastly different, but the pressure from fans, ownership, and media will remain strong regardless.

OK, on to the details of the deal, which we have now established is going to happen. Assuming that the Jets are only dealing Dubois here, I think the following can be stated:

- the Habs are not dealing Suzuki, Caufield, Slafkovsky, their own 1sts, or Mesar. Should be obvious to all.
- all players with trade protection are blocking any deal to Winnipeg, meaning that Petry, Edmundson, Anderson, Gallagher, and Dadonov are not in the deal either. Also, the first four are absolute non-starters anyway.

Given what I said above, you need to dump long-term cap to alleviate your future cap issues, and we need to have a semi-competitive roster in place next year. Unfortunately, we have no need, place, room or anything of the like for defensemen on expensive contracts (we have plenty of our own, trust me). Thus, the acceptable cap "dumps" are Dvorak and Hoffman, both of which are very usable at the NHL level. Dvorak makes the most sense as a C, but I would be open to taking on Hoffman (as well) to facilitate a deal. Note that I don't consider Evans as an option here, because that cap hit hardly needs to be offloaded, and Armia's third year with diminishing on-ice results is a non-starter without a serious incentive coming with him (meaning Guhle). Then, futures need to be included to bridge the gap, which depend on whether Hoffman or Byron are included. The more of your cap changes hands, the better the prospect going with them. I have this in mind as a baseline:

Dubois for Dvorak, Byron, FLA 1st 2023 (unprotected), and a prospect not named Guhle/Slaf/Mesar.

As some of you have cleverly noted, the first rounder has to be unprotected, because the protection could end up putting your own 1st in '24 to play, which I'm sure you would find unpleasant as hell. I don't think the Jets can pull off Guhle (especially with how unimpressive your D corps looks for the present and for the future), but the other prospects should be attainable.

What if Dach is in the mix, which I personally find unlikely? I would imagine it can be done: perhaps like this?

Dubois for Dach, Hoffman, FLA 1st 2023 (unprotected), and a prospect not in your top 8?

Hoffman needs to be in the deal now to dump more dollars, since I find it unlikely that you would give up both Dvorak and Dach. Since Dach is likely worth more that Dvorak, the prospect in question should be quite a bit worse than in the first proposal.

Both deals are reasonable: the Habs are not giving up indispensable pieces from the pool of assets that will one day form their core, and the cap implications are at least relatively stable in the next two years. The Jets are not subjected to cap implications longer than what they would pay for Dubois, and get a package of future assets that they could get from any team looking for a top rental next year.

 

[Tetragrammaton]

I didn't. I don't view Anderson nor Dvorak as holding tremendous value, nor do I envision Dach as being anywhere close to PLD in the future. So yeah, trading two average roster players and a prospect who's struggled for 3 years isn't that steep of an asking price. You're overrating our assets and undervaluing PLD's value. There is a thin chance Dach will amount to anything close to PLD and based on his FO percentages, he might not be a center either. I probably wouldn't do the trade because it doesn't make sense considering our timeline, but it wouldn't be for reasons that the asking price would be too steep (assuming they want Dach, Anderson and Dvorak).

This is insanity

Why lose Dach, Dvorak, Anderson when we can get Dubois FOR FREE with some patience?

Those 3 are worth 3 first round picks + 3 prospects at the minimum!

 

[Scintillating10]

Be crazy to trade Suzuki for Dubois. Both are skilled yes, but Suzuki has character, Dubois??

 

[BaseballCoach]

We are not tanking for Bedard regardless of Dubois.

Do people pay attention to how Gorton had operated in New York?

I like your point. I won't say that tanking for Bedard is a 0% strategy. But it is a low percentage strategy (5% to max 25%, likely in the 10% range) with a high return on the one guy, but at the price of still needing a ton more pieces afterwards.

Gorton would prefer to build the franchise to the point where it is competitive every year, AND has cap flexibility to add a top star if that is the difference maker. Not that this is a piece of cake, but the chances of success are better with competent management. And it is doable within 2-3 years.

 

[Archijerej]

PLDs acquisition is a no brainer - Habs will be set at C for next 10-years

Agreed. It all hinges on the price.

 

[Tetragrammaton]

Be crazy to trade Suzuki for Dubois. Both are skilled yes, but Suzuki has character, Dubois??

Who comes up with this crap? Suzuki ain’t going anywhere unless McDavid is coming back our way.

 

[Archijerej]

Team building - PLD complements Suzuki’s style as top-2Cs on the team.

This is also an underrated aspect. One finesse center and one power center gives us diversity that would be difficult to counter by opponents.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

A Jets fan here, who has more or less lost his entire trust in the Jets' front office. No ill will, no bad intentions, just a bunch of opinions that I have come up with about this Dubois debacle.

I reckon that if a Dubois to MTL is to happen, it happens this summer - or it does not happen at all. Reasons?

1) No matter what, Dubois will play next year. As a 24-year-old, holding out to strong arm the Jets does not get him closer to UFA. Holding out would waste him a lot of money, possible even more in the long term. Further, I'd assume that the Jets have to get comfortable with the risk of Dubois pulling of his previous stunts again with us, because to get value for him from anyone, he has to either be traded now or to play ball before UFA. Thus, both sides are motivated to get a decision made sooner rather than later.

2) The Jets are in a position where waiting around is not an option. Hellebuyck has two years left on his deal, and contrary to (what seems to be) the consensus around HFJets, the team will enter a full-blown freefall immediately after he departs for a competitive organisation in July 2024. If this is to be prevented, we need to have a coherent, concrete, and believable vision on offer to Hellebuyck and our other UFAs in 2023/24. Having Dubois around is unlikely to help, if it brings uncertainty and instability with it.

3) GM Hughes is and will be under immense pressure to fix one of your worst long-term problems: your cap structure. Between Anderson, Gallagher, Armia, and Dvorak, there is almost 19 million of long-term cap space wasted and severely hindering the rebuild. None of those four represent good value for the money spent, nor do they really fit in with your plans for the future. Add in the much more valuable Evans, Suzuki, and a rough estimation of Caufield's next deal, and you have around 32-35 million of cap allocated towards what still is a rather mediocre group of seven forwards. That is a f***ing lot. And since all of that cap will be in the books when Dubois becomes a UFA, what do you think are the chances of fitting his large UFA deal in there (which he will go for, given that it might be his only chance of getting one)? What do those chances look like after factoring in the potentially enormous paydays of Slafkovsky and Dach? Please note that none of this takes into considerations the back end of the Habs, which... well, is also less than ideal. I'm sure some of you have noticed the problem: you might well think that Dubois wants to come to MTL anyway (and you would be right), but in two years' time, you might not have the option of getting him for free.

Is this to say that you should overpay now to not lose an asset that you don't have? Absolutely not. But if the Habs start planning around Dubois two years before he comes there, a lot can go wrong in that time. It could result in passing on a really good UFA deal next year to preserve cap space for July 2024. It could mean a bridge deal to Caufield, when a long-term deal could be reached instead. It could mean an increasing pressure to make moves under the gun, because Dubois' plan to go to Montréal is already telegraphed to anyone who cares to pay attention. That is also why I predict that the Habs will pass on Dubois if an agreement is not reached this year: Hughes seems smart enough not to allocate his assets on the basis of a promise that someone will come to play for him in two years. You don't even know which level of Dubois you'll get, so it would be foolish to even attempt making your own plans work around him. I would be livid if Cheveldayoff did that, but then again, I'm livid that he still has a job with the Jets anyway.

4) Finally, I would imagine that both GMs would want to find some kind of peace regarding this situation. The reasons are vastly different, but the pressure from fans, ownership, and media will remain strong regardless.

OK, on to the details of the deal, which we have now established is going to happen. Assuming that the Jets are only dealing Dubois here, I think the following can be stated:

- the Habs are not dealing Suzuki, Caufield, Slafkovsky, their own 1sts, or Mesar. Should be obvious to all.
- all players with trade protection are blocking any deal to Winnipeg, meaning that Petry, Edmundson, Anderson, Gallagher, and Dadonov are not in the deal either. Also, the first four are absolute non-starters anyway.

Given what I said above, you need to dump long-term cap to alleviate your future cap issues, and we need to have a semi-competitive roster in place next year. Unfortunately, we have no need, place, room or anything of the like for defensemen on expensive contracts (we have plenty of our own, trust me). Thus, the acceptable cap "dumps" are Dvorak and Hoffman, both of which are very usable at the NHL level. Dvorak makes the most sense as a C, but I would be open to taking on Hoffman (as well) to facilitate a deal. Note that I don't consider Evans as an option here, because that cap hit hardly needs to be offloaded, and Armia's third year with diminishing on-ice results is a non-starter without a serious incentive coming with him (meaning Guhle). Then, futures need to be included to bridge the gap, which depend on whether Hoffman or Byron are included. The more of your cap changes hands, the better the prospect going with them. I have this in mind as a baseline:

Dubois for Dvorak, Byron, FLA 1st 2023 (unprotected), and a prospect not named Guhle/Slaf/Mesar.

As some of you have cleverly noted, the first rounder has to be unprotected, because the protection could end up putting your own 1st in '24 to play, which I'm sure you would find unpleasant as hell. I don't think the Jets can pull off Guhle (especially with how unimpressive your D corps looks for the present and for the future), but the other prospects should be attainable.

What if Dach is in the mix, which I personally find unlikely? I would imagine it can be done: perhaps like this?

Dubois for Dach, Hoffman, FLA 1st 2023 (unprotected), and a prospect not in your top 8?

Hoffman needs to be in the deal now to dump more dollars, since I find it unlikely that you would give up both Dvorak and Dach. Since Dach is likely worth more that Dvorak, the prospect in question should be quite a bit worse than in the first proposal.

Dvorak and Anderson contracts are good deals and are sought after. Gallagher's is probably not moveable.

I doubt PLD'S next contract will be as valuable as Dvorak or Anderson's contract.

 

[Archijerej]

Be crazy to trade Suzuki for Dubois. Both are skilled yes, but Suzuki has character, Dubois??

No one is proposing to trade Suzuki for PLD.

 

[Scintillating10]

A Jets fan here, who has more or less lost his entire trust in the Jets' front office. No ill will, no bad intentions, just a bunch of opinions that I have come up with about this Dubois debacle.

I reckon that if a Dubois to MTL is to happen, it happens this summer - or it does not happen at all. Reasons?

1) No matter what, Dubois will play next year. As a 24-year-old, holding out to strong arm the Jets does not get him closer to UFA. Holding out would waste him a lot of money, possible even more in the long term. Further, I'd assume that the Jets have to get comfortable with the risk of Dubois pulling of his previous stunts again with us, because to get value for him from anyone, he has to either be traded now or to play ball before UFA. Thus, both sides are motivated to get a decision made sooner rather than later.

2) The Jets are in a position where waiting around is not an option. Hellebuyck has two years left on his deal, and contrary to (what seems to be) the consensus around HFJets, the team will enter a full-blown freefall immediately after he departs for a competitive organisation in July 2024. If this is to be prevented, we need to have a coherent, concrete, and believable vision on offer to Hellebuyck and our other UFAs in 2023/24. Having Dubois around is unlikely to help, if it brings uncertainty and instability with it.

3) GM Hughes is and will be under immense pressure to fix one of your worst long-term problems: your cap structure. Between Anderson, Gallagher, Armia, and Dvorak, there is almost 19 million of long-term cap space wasted and severely hindering the rebuild. None of those four represent good value for the money spent, nor do they really fit in with your plans for the future. Add in the much more valuable Evans, Suzuki, and a rough estimation of Caufield's next deal, and you have around 32-35 million of cap allocated towards what still is a rather mediocre group of seven forwards. That is a f***ing lot. And since all of that cap will be in the books when Dubois becomes a UFA, what do you think are the chances of fitting his large UFA deal in there (which he will go for, given that it might be his only chance of getting one)? What do those chances look like after factoring in the potentially enormous paydays of Slafkovsky and Dach? Please note that none of this takes into considerations the back end of the Habs, which... well, is also less than ideal. I'm sure some of you have noticed the problem: you might well think that Dubois wants to come to MTL anyway (and you would be right), but in two years' time, you might not have the option of getting him for free.

Is this to say that you should overpay now to not lose an asset that you don't have? Absolutely not. But if the Habs start planning around Dubois two years before he comes there, a lot can go wrong in that time. It could result in passing on a really good UFA deal next year to preserve cap space for July 2024. It could mean a bridge deal to Caufield, when a long-term deal could be reached instead. It could mean an increasing pressure to make moves under the gun, because Dubois' plan to go to Montréal is already telegraphed to anyone who cares to pay attention. That is also why I predict that the Habs will pass on Dubois if an agreement is not reached this year: Hughes seems smart enough not to allocate his assets on the basis of a promise that someone will come to play for him in two years. You don't even know which level of Dubois you'll get, so it would be foolish to even attempt making your own plans work around him. I would be livid if Cheveldayoff did that, but then again, I'm livid that he still has a job with the Jets anyway.

4) Finally, I would imagine that both GMs would want to find some kind of peace regarding this situation. The reasons are vastly different, but the pressure from fans, ownership, and media will remain strong regardless.

OK, on to the details of the deal, which we have now established is going to happen. Assuming that the Jets are only dealing Dubois here, I think the following can be stated:

- the Habs are not dealing Suzuki, Caufield, Slafkovsky, their own 1sts, or Mesar. Should be obvious to all.
- all players with trade protection are blocking any deal to Winnipeg, meaning that Petry, Edmundson, Anderson, Gallagher, and Dadonov are not in the deal either. Also, the first four are absolute non-starters anyway.

Given what I said above, you need to dump long-term cap to alleviate your future cap issues, and we need to have a semi-competitive roster in place next year. Unfortunately, we have no need, place, room or anything of the like for defensemen on expensive contracts (we have plenty of our own, trust me). Thus, the acceptable cap "dumps" are Dvorak and Hoffman, both of which are very usable at the NHL level. Dvorak makes the most sense as a C, but I would be open to taking on Hoffman (as well) to facilitate a deal. Note that I don't consider Evans as an option here, because that cap hit hardly needs to be offloaded, and Armia's third year with diminishing on-ice results is a non-starter without a serious incentive coming with him (meaning Guhle). Then, futures need to be included to bridge the gap, which depend on whether Hoffman or Byron are included. The more of your cap changes hands, the better the prospect going with them. I have this in mind as a baseline:

Dubois for Dvorak, Byron, FLA 1st 2023 (unprotected), and a prospect not named Guhle/Slaf/Mesar.

As some of you have cleverly noted, the first rounder has to be unprotected, because the protection could end up putting your own 1st in '24 to play, which I'm sure you would find unpleasant as hell. I don't think the Jets can pull off Guhle (especially with how unimpressive your D corps looks for the present and for the future), but the other prospects should be attainable.

What if Dach is in the mix, which I personally find unlikely? I would imagine it can be done: perhaps like this?

Dubois for Dach, Hoffman, FLA 1st 2023 (unprotected), and a prospect not in your top 8?

Hoffman needs to be in the deal now to dump more dollars, since I find it unlikely that you would give up both Dvorak and Dach. Since Dach is likely worth more that Dvorak, the prospect in question should be quite a bit worse than in the first proposal.

Both deals are reasonable: the Habs are not giving up indispensable pieces from the pool of assets that will one day form their core, and the cap implications are at least relatively stable in the next two years. The Jets are not subjected to cap implications longer than what they would pay for Dubois, and get a package of future assets that they could get from any team looking for a top rental next year.

Would you do a hybrid? Dvorak, Hoffman, the worst of ours or Fla first. Similar to Arizona trade last year. Just in case Florida slides and wins lottery. Plus a prospect not in our top 8?

 

[yianik]

Dubois is a decent 2C who can't win face offs. Five years in, his production has been just okay. I expect Suzuki to keep progressing in production , but question if PLD does. We actually would have been better off keeping Danault given his face off success , top tier defensive play, than trading for PLD with similar production to Danault.

I go back and forth here. But I think we are better off without getting PLD because of what we likely have to give up for him. I would rather save the assets for next year and especially the 2023 draft. draft.