HF Habs: Trade Proposal Thread #79

[Spring in Fialta]

Dvo + Anderson and FLA 1st is pretty fair imo.
They won’t do it but I think it’s fair.

It's not. It's really not.

 

[McPhees Moustache]

• His cap hit could be a lot bigger, riskier NTC/NMC will have to be given. If he still wants a max term deal, you’ll have a larger cap hit when he’s older and in the midst/beginning of a possible decline.
• A lot can happen in two years. He has more options and leverage as a UFA.
• He’s 24, still primed for development. If you see him as a 1C and a target in two years, why would you let someone else control his fate.
• You add him to your core now, he can grow with it. Dubois can make everyone around him a better player unlike Dach/Evans/Dvorak.

All of these risks just to hang onto a huge question mark draft pick that you won’t even see for 3 more seasons, and someone who likely won’t hit Dubois’ level for even longer. The other assets like roster players and B prospects are incomparable to a 24 year old 2C. You wouldn’t even remember you had them.

(I’m talking the Florida pick here as I assume it’d be the main chip, I don’t see a world where our pick is EVER on the table)

Some good points - statistically most players peak at ~24yrs old, I don’t see much more development for Dubois and I don’t see him ever being a 1C
For me, at the end of the day this is all about maximizing assets - if we can potentially get him for free but on a slightly more expensive UFA contract why not use the assets on other areas of need in order to make us competitive. In another year or two we should have a much better idea as to what our weaknesses our that aren’t filled by drafting/development.

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

Dvo + Anderson and FLA 1st is pretty fair imo.
They won’t do it but I think it’s fair.

Or what about Anderson for PLD & a 2nds?

 

[Habby4Life]

It's not. It's really not.

I’m not so sure about that. Debrincat, a 40+ goal scorer went for the 7th, a 2nd, and a 3rd.

Dvo and Andy are worth more than a 2nd and a third. Granted Fla pick will be 20+ but PLD isn’t Debrincat.

PLD is overrated.

 

[jrom]

The article also mentions Hughes can be patient since there is no rush for the habs to acquire Dubois.

it's actually a very good analysis of the situation, well tought article

 

[Spring in Fialta]

I’m not so sure about that. Debrincat, a 40+ goal scorer went for the 7th, a 2nd, and a 3rd.

Dvo and Andy are worth more than a 2nd and a third. Granted Fla pick will be 20+ but PLD isn’t Debrincat.

PLD is worth more than the 7th in this year's draft and everyone thinks Chicago got taken to the cleaners, though.

 

[Habby4Life]

PLD is worth more than the 7th in this year's draft and everyone thinks Chicago got taken to the cleaners, though.

The bar has been set. It’s just like Petry, many feel he is worth more than futures but that’s where the market currently is at. Shit Patch and Burns went for nothing.

The market is weird right now and MTL should use it to their advantage. It’s the Jets who have a guy who wants out, not MTL. MTL is in the very same situation with Petry. There is no reason MTL should overpay for PLD.

 

[SwiftyHab]

it's actually a very good analysis of the situation, well tought article

you think it’s more thoughtful then us arguing over this for 29 pages?

 

[McPhees Moustache]

PLD is worth more than the 7th in this year's draft and everyone thinks Chicago got taken to the cleaners, though.

I think it’d be pretty close if you put up a poll on our board with this question

 

[jrom]

you think it’s more thoughtful then us arguing over this for 29 pages?

not as entertaining

 

[McGees]

How

It's not. It's really not.

Why

 

[Gravity]

Waiting for Klingberg and Kadri to sign so Petry can get dealt.

 

[glxss]

Some good points - statistically most players peak at ~24yrs old, I don’t see much more development for Dubois and I don’t see him ever being a 1C
For me, at the end of the day this is all about maximizing assets - if we can potentially get him for free but on a slightly more expensive UFA contract why not use the assets on other areas of need in order to make us competitive. In another year or two we should have a much better idea as to what our weaknesses our that aren’t filled by drafting/development.

Yeah obviously you could take him or leave so I understand the UFA argument from your end.

Agreed on the statistical peak - but it is averaged out and there’s too much room for players to break that. Like I said in a previous post, his former teams and structures give me reason to believe there’s more to PLD than his points show. His isolated impacts are among the best Cs in the league. His transition game is in the top percentile along with possession numbers. Plays a feisty, speedy, skilled game, he’s a monster when he gets going. Everything is there to be a bonafide 1C in my eyes. Worst case scenario you have a young 2C building block. I’d rather that kind of roster impact sooner than later. And of course waiting leaves the possibility of not having it at all.

 

[26Mats]

More of a long term thought than a trade proposal:

Given Highes just traded Romanov, I think he's really going to use our extremely deep prospect pool to trade for young players like a PLD or A ... Dach.

Best part is, the prospect pool is going to be even deeper after next year's draft. Hopefully Drouin, Dadonov, Byron, and Jake Allen have BIG years!

 

[Kaladin]

I think our best shot at another 1st in next year's draft is Jake Allen having a huge year and a contending team biting the bullet and trading for him when their own goaltending falls off a cliff in the lead up to the trade deadline.

My eyes are on the leafs when Dubas realizes what a blunder the Murray + Samsonov duo was.

 

[Kaladin]

Let me get this straight - if we trade for PLD and sign him. By the end of year 2 of our "rebuild" - so next offseason, we'll already have 3 forwards signed for ~8M (Caufield, Suzuki and PLD)? Plus, Gallagher for 6.5M long term.

Slaf isn't signed long term, our 2023 presumably high draft pick isn't signed long term - so that money still needs to go out. No #1D in sight, no long term goalie.

This seems like too much cap dedicated too soon in a supposed rebuild.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

I don't see Hughes being willing to give up any of our top prospects in a Dubois trade. We should still be able to make a solid offer due to our insane prospect depth

Poehling, Ylonen, Mysak, Heineman, Smilanic, Kidney, Struble, Fairbrother, Kapanen, Tuch, Norlinder, RHP etc. should be available in a Dubois trade.

Dvorak would obviously also be part of the offer.

Florida's 1st could also be available (top 10 protected)

Assuming Dubois is not interested in signing a long-term contract with any other team, we just need to make an offer that would beat what Dubois would return as a 2-year rental.

 

[Archijerej]

For the Habs it's pretty simple in this situation: Suzuki, Caufield, Slafkovsky, Guhle, Barron and our top 10 protected 1st round pick are off the table......everything else is available.

Yeah, pretty much. Although, I would probably be ready to make Barron available.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

Let me get this straight - if we trade for PLD and sign him. By the end of year 2 of our "rebuild" - so next offseason, we'll already have 3 forwards signed for ~8M (Caufield, Suzuki and PLD)? Plus, Gallagher for 6.5M long term.

Slaf isn't signed long term, our 2023 presumably high draft pick isn't signed long term - so that money still needs to go out. No #1D in sight, no long term goalie.

This seems like too much cap dedicated too soon in a supposed rebuild.

It's not a big deal.
Assuming Slaf doesn't play more than 9 NHL games next season, then he will need a new contract in 4 years. Our 2023 1st round pick will also not need a big contract until at least 4+ years from now.

In 4 years, Gally will only have 1 year left on his contract.
Hoffman, Petry, Armia, Byron, Edmundson, Savard, and Price will all be gone by then.

 

[Archijerej]

Yea, ideally we'd get him for free. But if Hugo does decide to trade for him I'm just hoping they don't include any core pieces of our rebuild (Suzuki/Salf/Caufield/Ghule).

They won't. The purpose of this trade would be to strenghten the core, not to make a lateral move.

It's perfectly fine for Winnipeg to ask for some future assets like Dach, Barron, some other prospect, or FLA 1st. However, Suzuki/Caufield/Slafkovsky/Guhle should be untouchable.

It's especially pointless to even mention Suzuki in the conversation about Dubois. That would be the definition of a high risk, no reward trade. If that was Winnipeg's ask, they obviously aren't ready to discuss trade seriously. Let them simmer in this whole Dubois situation for a bit.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

 

[Archijerej]

At most I’d offer Dvo, maybe 2 2nd and a B level prospect. Jets say no, then fine, wait 2 yrs and make your pitch when he is a FA. By then the Habs will have accumulated more prospects and gotten a lot better.

No way should the Habs overpay for PLD.

Dvorak as the main piece for Dubois is not going to happen. It's pointless to discuss it. It would be increadibly stupid for Winnipeg and Chevy is not a dummy.

We have some leverage here, but if we want the player, we WILL have to part with some future assets. Just not the core ones.

 

[Archijerej]

I don't see Hughes being willing to give up any of our top prospects in a Dubois trade. We should still be able to make a solid offer due to our insane prospect depth

Poehling, Ylonen, Mysak, Heineman, Smilanic, Kidney, Struble, Fairbrother, Kapanen, Tuch, Norlinder, RHP etc. should be available in a Dubois trade.

Dvorak would obviously also be part of the offer.

Florida's 1st could also be available (top 10 protected)

Assuming Dubois is not interested in signing a long-term contract with any other team, we just need to make an offer that would beat what Dubois would return as a 2-year rental.

You seem to have a broad definition of a "top prospect". I'm certain Slafkovsky and Guhle are off the table, but fail to see how Barron, Harris, Mesar or Mailloux should be deal breakers if we really want Dubois. And by all indications, we really want him.

Of the names you listed, not one would be seen by Winnipeg as an appropriate compensation for loosing PLD.

 

[le_sean]

Let me get this straight - if we trade for PLD and sign him. By the end of year 2 of our "rebuild" - so next offseason, we'll already have 3 forwards signed for ~8M (Caufield, Suzuki and PLD)? Plus, Gallagher for 6.5M long term.

Slaf isn't signed long term, our 2023 presumably high draft pick isn't signed long term - so that money still needs to go out. No #1D in sight, no long term goalie.

This seems like too much cap dedicated too soon in a supposed rebuild.

I think Gorton would want an expedited rebuild like in New York. There’s no reason to let this drag out longer than this season. You want Slaf and the 2023 1st rounder to be able to contribute to a good team while on their ELCs.

 

[Kudo Shinichi]

You seem to have a broad definition of a "top prospect". I'm certain Slafkovsky and Guhle are off the table, but fail to see how Barron, Harris, Mesar or Mailloux should be deal breakers if we really want Dubois. And by all indications, we really want him.

Barron will definitely not be available. The habs are in major need of RD.
Mailloux likely isn't available either because his trade value is low and his potential is very high. I also doubt the jets would be interested in the controversy that would come with acquiring Mailloux.
Harris could be available, but I doubt Hughes would be happy to give him up after having traded Romanov.
Mesar sure.

Dvorak + florida's 1st (top 10 protected) + Poehling/Ylonen/Kidney + 2nd/Mysak/Heineman/etc.
is what I could see us offer.
It's more of a quantity package than quality, but its probably more than what Dubois would get as a rental.

We're definitely not going to pay fair value for Dubois.