HF Habs: Trade Proposal Thread #79

[nhlfan9191]

I wonder if the league has ever considered some sort of cap relief for players drafted by the org. Like a -20% cap hit or something if a player plays with the team that drafted them, or a max cap hit like no more than x$, the rest is free (does not count on the cap).

I always feel the worst situation is a team having so much success at drafting and developing players they can no longer pay their own players In their prime.

It would encourage player development and players wanting to stay with the team that drafted them for $$$ incentives. Once traded, or as ufa the salary counts in full.

This is essentially what happened to Toronto. Their core got good to quick and not a single one of them was willing to be reasonable on a contract extension.

 

[Spring in Fialta]

This is essentially what happened to Toronto. Their core got good to quick and not a single one of them was willing to be reasonable on a contract extension.

I could be wrong but from my understanding it was the Tavares contract that did it. The moment he got paid like that, everybody wanted to get paid.

 

[Captain Mountain]

This is essentially what happened to Toronto. Their core got good to quick and not a single one of them was willing to be reasonable on a contract extension.

I guess, but people kind of miss the opportunities having a core like that creates. If Toronto doesn't have those guys, they don't convince players like Bunting, Giordano and Samsonov to take below market value deals with them.

Toronto also signed their guys just before COVID forced a flat cap. Both Matthews' and Marner's contracts kicked in in 2019. They were expecting the cap to rise higher than it did.

 

[Draft]

What do you guys think of doing an Armia for Bear trade? I'm thinking we can sign Bear for around 2mil (last contract). Really liked him in Edmonton, very willing to activate and jump up into the offence. He's had a down couple of years, but there's still a lot of potential there.

 

[salbutera]

I wonder if the league has ever considered some sort of cap relief for players drafted by the org. Like a -20% cap hit or something if a player plays with the team that drafted them, or a max cap hit like no more than x$, the rest is free (does not count on the cap).

I always feel the worst situation is a team having so much success at drafting and developing players they can no longer pay their own players In their prime.

It would encourage player development and players wanting to stay with the team that drafted them for $$$ incentives. Once traded, or as ufa the salary counts in full.

I think it would do wonders if the NHL were to introduce a “franchise player exemption”.

Restricted to one player max per team, has to be drafted by the org with uninterrupted service. Team would get the benefit of all cap hit surpassing a certain limit - say $7M / $8M (pick a number) to not count vs their cap.

I.e McJesus has a $12.5M AAV only the first $8M counts, freeing up $4.5M in cap space to use at their discretion

 

[blueberry]

What do you guys think of doing an Armia for Bear trade? I'm thinking we can sign Bear for around 2mil (last contract). Really liked him in Edmonton, very willing to activate and jump up into the offence. He's had a down couple of years, but there's still a lot of potential there.

I was thinking the same thing. I liked bear in edmonton and he's still young/ He can handle the point and has a great shot. Let's do it.

 

[Archijerej]

What do you guys think of doing an Armia for Bear trade?

Yes, please.

 

[Habs Halifax]

This is true.

We knew Patches was on his way out and we wanted a young C with top 6 potential so we had threads full of targets. Glass was up there and Vegas fans thought he was untouchable. Flyer fans told us to pound sand over Morgan Frost, same from Florida on Borgstrom. The Blues fans refused proposals for a Patches for Robert Thomas.

I was thrilled getting Suzuki as I had wanted him in the draft, enough to want to move up to get him. But of the 4 kids people proposed we target, only 1 of them turned out as a guy to have been a good get, Thomas. The other 3, not so much.. So yeah, you need smarts, but also a touch of luck.

Targets in Patch trades were Borgstrom, Vilardi, Thomas and we ended up with Suzuki where Glass was considered a higher rated prospects. Saying that Habs management only valued Glass high is just wrong.

Just goes to show that prospects don't always turn out who we project them to be. Thomas did but remember the Panthers and how they rated Borgstrom with his NCAA stats? Same as Habs fans with Poehling I guess.

 

[Deebs]

What do you guys think of doing an Armia for Bear trade? I'm thinking we can sign Bear for around 2mil (last contract). Really liked him in Edmonton, very willing to activate and jump up into the offence. He's had a down couple of years, but there's still a lot of potential there.

Not a fan of Bear but I'd still do the trade if presented.

 

[JoelWarlord]

I could be wrong but from my understanding it was the Tavares contract that did it. The moment he got paid like that, everybody wanted to get paid.

I think that was definitely a factor, but part of it was just...they decided to cave to all their RFAs, it was truly bizzare. Every other team in the league uses the leverage against RFAs with no arbitration rights but they just decided to pay them all like UFAs for some reason. They turned it into a virtue for some reason, like they were doing moneyball by....paying a class of players that is historically underpaid because they don't have leverage as if they were UFAs.

I guess, but people kind of miss the opportunities having a core like that creates. If Toronto doesn't have those guys, they don't convince players like Bunting, Giordano and Samsonov to take below market value deals with them.

Sure, but they didn't have to overpay their guys to get those bargains, it's not a counterbalancing force because the alternative isn't not having those players, it's not paying Marner like he's a UFA when he's not a UFA. Tampa gets the same type of below market deals too, and Toronto would still have been able to get Giordano/Spezza below market value if their core were making less money (I leave out Bunting and Samsonov because I disagree that they signed below market value).

Toronto also signed all their guys just before COVID forced a flat cap. Both Matthews' and Marner's contracts kicked in in 2019. They were expecting the cap to rise higher than it did.

Yes, but I don't think the flat cap factors in quite as much as the Toronto FO would like us to believe. They expected those contracts to reset the RFA landscape and start a trend of teams paying RFAs big money early in their careers and it just...didn't really happen. Other teams more or less just said no thanks, we'll continue using the leverage we have as a product of the RFA system. The flat cap made things worse for them but even without the flat cap you're still going to be at a huge disadvantage if you decided to pay Marner 11M while Tampa paid Point 6.75M.

 

[nhlfan9191]

I guess, but people kind of miss the opportunities having a core like that creates. If Toronto doesn't have those guys, they don't convince players like Bunting, Giordano and Samsonov to take below market value deals with them.

Toronto also signed their guys just before COVID forced a flat cap. Both Matthews' and Marner's contracts kicked in in 2019. They were expecting the cap to rise higher than it did.

I don’t really consider the players you mentioned special. Bunting had inflated stats due to who he played with, Giordano is a dinosaur, and Samsonov is a back up goalie whose stock fell off the earth. You would think for the money they’re spending on their core, they could attract a lot better.

 

[Mcdonaldz]

The main reason the Habs are interested in him now as opposed to last year is that his value has been potentially reduced. We're in no position at this point in a rebuild to trade Suzuki or Ghule and multiple futures for 1 player. Why not trade all of that for another star player? Because we'd have to pay full value. If he can be had for less, you make the deal. If not, you wait.

There’s “not paying full value” and there’s “let’s get PLD without including any of our top 8 prospects and any first or second rounders because xyz”

When Pacioretty and Petry wanted out… for examples … after bad seasons… I bet not a lot of poeple here were doing the gymnastics to justify giving them away for 50 cents on the dollar lol

 

[Spring in Fialta]

I think that was definitely a factor, but part of it was just...they decided to cave to all their RFAs, it was truly bizzare. Every other team in the league uses the leverage against RFAs with no arbitration rights but they just decided to pay them all like UFAs for some reason. They turned it into a virtue for some reason, like they were doing moneyball by....paying a class of players that is historically underpaid because they don't have leverage as if they were UFAs.

Sure, but they didn't have to overpay their guys to get those bargains, it's not a counterbalancing force because the alternative isn't not having those players, it's not paying Marner like he's a UFA when he's not a UFA. Tampa gets the same type of below market deals too, and Toronto would still have been able to get Giordano/Spezza below market value if their core were making less money (I leave out Bunting and Samsonov because I disagree that they signed below market value).

Yes, but I don't think the flat cap factors in quite as much as the Toronto FO would like us to believe. They expected those contracts to reset the RFA landscape and start a trend of teams paying RFAs big money early in their careers and it just...didn't really happen. Other teams more or less just said no thanks, we'll continue using the leverage we have as a product of the RFA system. The flat cap made things worse for them but even without the flat cap you're still going to be at a huge disadvantage if you decided to pay Marner 11M while Tampa paid Point 6.75M.

Great post.

 

[John B]

What do you guys think of doing an Armia for Bear trade? I'm thinking we can sign Bear for around 2mil (last contract). Really liked him in Edmonton, very willing to activate and jump up into the offence. He's had a down couple of years, but there's still a lot of potential there.

I'd do this deal. I'm not sure Carolina would though. Not sure where Armia fits in to their line up. They seem to have plenty of wingers. If Carolina were willing though, I wouldn't say no.

 

[Captain Mountain]

Yes, but I don't think the flat cap factors in quite as much as the Toronto FO would like us to believe. They expected those contracts to reset the RFA landscape and start a trend of teams paying RFAs big money early in their careers and it just...didn't really happen. Other teams more or less just said no thanks, we'll continue using the leverage we have as a product of the RFA system. The flat cap made things worse for them but even without the flat cap you're still going to be at a huge disadvantage if you decided to pay Marner 11M while Tampa paid Point 6.75M.

From 2016 to 2019, the cap increased by 8.5 mil. From 2019 to 2022, its increased 1 mil. The flat cap is a huge factor. Even from a Leafs perspective, all you need to do is look at how well Nylander's contract aged.

I don’t really consider the players you mentioned special. Bunting had inflated stats due to who he played with, Giordano is a dinosaur, and Samsonov is a back up goalie whose stock fell off the earth. You would think for the money they’re spending on their core, they could attract a lot better.

Bunting had great stats in Arizona too, Giordano is still really good and Samsonov is still a goalie with upside in a weak goalie market. Those guys combined were projected to make far more than the Leafs are paying them. Its not just a Leafs thing either, that effect happens in Edmonton, Colorado, Boston, etc. Having superstars is playing free agency on easy mode.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I don’t really consider the players you mentioned special. Bunting had inflated stats due to who he played with, Giordano is a dinosaur, and Samsonov is a back up goalie whose stock fell off the earth. You would think for the money they’re spending on their core, they could attract a lot better.

Then can attract a lot better but that requires patience from their GM but he's too busy trying to play max cap game and how it all fits in. Yeah, covid did screw them over but Dubois has done very little to improve that core. Then I look at drafted players outside of the top 10 (Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Matthews) and I wonder, where is the hits in the draft outside that top 10?

Kadri trade was a mistake. Spent his cap last year on Ritchie and Mrazek and then had to unload them.

I do think their team is better this season but how much? Game is played on the ice.

From 2016 to 2019, the cap increased by 8.5 mil. From 2019 to 2022, its increased 1 mil. The flat cap is a huge factor. Even from a Leafs perspective, all you need to do is look at how well Nylander's contract aged.

You're not wrong. The flat cap and timing of contracts for both the Oilers and Leafs was horrible timing for them. Anybody ignoring it don't know what they are talking about.

This is why I prefer to get Caufield locked up now. Timing of contracts will work in the opposite way moving forward with a growing cap and if you got several key assets needing new contracts in 2 years, you better start clearing out cap now or try to sign them ASAP!

 

[nhlfan9191]

Then can attract a lot better but that requires patience from their GM but he's too busy trying to play max cap game and how it all fits in. Yeah, covid did screw them over but Dubois has done very little to improve that core. Then I look at drafted players outside of the top 10 (Rielly, Nylander, Marner, Matthews) and I wonder, where is the hits in the draft outside that top 10?

Kadri trade was a mistake. Spent his cap last year on Ritchie and Mrazek and then had to unload them.

I do think their team is better this season but how much? Game is played on the ice.



You're not wrong. The flat cap and timing of contracts for both the Oilers and Leafs was horrible timing for them. Anybody ignoring it don't know what they are talking about.

This is why I prefer to get Caufield locked up now. Timing of contracts will work in the opposite way moving forward with a growing cap and if you got several key assets needing new contracts in 2 years, you better start clearing out cap now or try to sign them ASAP!

I honestly don’t think Covid is an excuse for them. How do you justify giving Matthews the second highest cap in the league when his career high in points was in the 70’s? What made that contract worse is it was only 5 years walking him to UFA. And how do you justify giving Marner almost $11 million at that time or even now? Toronto’s cap management is awful. The players they get in the offseason any team can sign if they want too. It’s not impressive.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I honestly don’t think Covid is an excuse for them. How do you justify giving Matthews the second highest cap in the league when his career high in points was in the 70’s? What made that contract worse is it was only 5 years walking him to UFA. And how do you justify giving Marner almost $11 million at that time or even now? Toronto’s cap management is awful. The players they get in the offseason any team can sign if they want too. It’s not impressive.

It is. You sign players factoring in inflation and when Covid derails it, there is no inflation. Disagree that inflation matters? Yeah sure, talk to NHL agents about that.

Cap before Covid came around was reported to be in the $84M - $88M range depending on escrow for 20/21. That's not an opinion, that is fact.

They signed Marner, Matthews, and Nylander in a very short span and (18 and 19) and there is no way of knowing the cap would be flat for a few years starting in 20/21. Timing was bad and I don't like the word excuse

 

[nhlfan9191]

It is. You sign players factoring in inflation and when Covid derails it, there is no inflation. Disagree that inflation matters? Yeah sure, talk to NHL agents about that.

Cap before Covid came around was reported to be in the $84M - $88M range depending on escrow for 20/21. That's not an opinion, that is fact.

They signed Marner, Matthews, and Nylander in a very short span and (18 and 19) and there is no way of knowing the cap would be flat for a few years starting in 20/21. Timing was bad and I don't like the word excuse

Are you really defending Toronto right now? Lol there was ZERO reason for those cap hits to be as high as they were. Good GM’s would find a way to pay their RFA’s for what they’re worth at the time the contract is signed, not grossly overpay for what they may be worth with future performance, inflation, cap increase, or whatever excuse you want to throw in there. There’s no defending the Matthews or Marner deals. Toronto allowed those players to bend them over.

 

[Weber Fan]

Byron with a salary of 2,8M and a cap hit of 3,4M could be interesting for a team who want to reach the floor…

 

[Captain Mountain]

I honestly don’t think Covid is an excuse for them. How do you justify giving Matthews the second highest cap in the league when his career high in points was in the 70’s? What made that contract worse is it was only 5 years walking him to UFA. And how do you justify giving Marner almost $11 million at that time or even now? Toronto’s cap management is awful. The players they get in the offseason any team can sign if they want too. It’s not impressive.

Uh, what? Matthews got that contract at 21. He's good enough to exert that kind of influence. Montreal gave Suzuki almost 8 million after a 40 point season.

And Matthews and Marner are more than worth their contracts. Its the same with most younger guys in history, except the deals looked a lot better when to reliably go up year over year.

 

[JoelWarlord]

From 2016 to 2019, the cap increased by 8.5 mil. From 2019 to 2022, its increased 1 mil. The flat cap is a huge factor. Even from a Leafs perspective, all you need to do is look at how well Nylander's contract aged.

Of course it's a factor, but just because things wouldn't have been as bad if it weren't for the flat cap doesn't mean what they did was good. Whether or not the cap rises they still went out and paid RFA Marner with no arbitration rights pretty much the same kind of money as UFA Panarin and didn't even get term in return. You're right that Nylander is good value today, and it's worked out well, but they didn't get term for what was an overpay at the time relative to his peers and now he's 2 years away from UFA in the same summer that Matthews is up for a new deal. Tavares is getting top 5 franchise superstar money and giving them ~top 40 player results. It's not all about the money, they paid top dollar AND got bent over on term.

Bunting had great stats in Arizona too, Giordano is still really good and Samsonov is still a goalie with upside in a weak goalie market. Those guys combined were projected to make far more than the Leafs are paying them.

Bunting was 25 years old with 26 career NHL games played, I don't really think there was much of a market there for more than the contract he got from the Leafs. Great signing by them but I don't really see how it's a player choosing to sign below market value given 950k is pretty much the going rate for a career AHLer that you think might have shown something interesting. Samsonov I don't think was below market either, he was really bad last year and took a 1 year prove-it deal after most of the goalie musical chairs ended. As for Giordano I certainly agree that's an absolute bargain deal, but.....

Its not just a Leafs thing either, that effect happens in Edmonton, Colorado, Boston, etc. Having superstars if playing free agency on easy mode.

Exactly this, "it's easy to get free agency bargains when you have stars" isn't really counterbalancing the issue of overpaying your RFAs and getting bent over on term, because you would be getting those bargains if you just paid them in line with their peers and/or got term on the contracts. The bargains come from having the star players, not from overpaying them, so the bargains don't really work as an "on the other hand" counter argument to having overpaid your core.

 

[JoelWarlord]

Uh, what? Matthews got that contract at 21. He's good enough to exert that kind of influence. Montreal gave Suzuki almost 8 million after a 40 point season.

And Matthews and Marner are more than worth their contracts. Its the same with most younger guys in history, except the deals looked a lot better when to reliably go up year over year.

These players (other than Tavares) are worth the contracts in a strict $/WAR sense but they aren't worth it relative to their peers, and especially aren't when term is taken into account. Marner is probably better than Panarin but when you have the leverage of RFA status that's not a good reason to just pay him like he's a UFA when you're only buying two years of UFA eligibility. Matthews I don't really give them a hard time on because he's worth the money and the offer sheet threat would be real. It's unfortunate for them he wasn't willing to take 8 years like McDavid but I don't pin that on Dubas other than the fact it makes for a really dicey situation where those contracts are all coming up a lot quicker than I think they might have hoped.

As for the Suzuki comparison that's exactly what I'm getting at, Montreal bought 4 years of UFA at that price and paid slightly more than his market value today in exchange for his entire prime and a deal that will be very affordable for what he brings within just a season or two when the Habs will start to care about cap efficiency again.

 

[nhlfan9191]

Uh, what? Matthews got that contract at 21. He's good enough to exert that kind of influence. Montreal gave Suzuki almost 8 million after a 40 point season.

And Matthews and Marner are more than worth their contracts. Its the same with most younger guys in history, except the deals looked a lot better when to reliably go up year over year.

A lot of the good teams in the league have their star players on good contracts threw their RFA years. I don’t think using Bergevin as an example of why what Toronto did was smart is the way I would go in this argument. They overpaid. How do you hand out $11.6 million dollars to Matthews at that point without buying UFA years? There’s no defending that.

 

[BLONG7]

Is Strickland only finding that out now? Where was he on UFA Frenzy day when Pacioretty was given away just to create cap room?

Do these writers actually get paid? Stating the obvious on behalf of Captain Obvious guy in the commercials!