Value of: Trade Leon??

[Scintillating10]

that offer was junk for Leon and literally everyone is telling you that. Which of Jake Allen or Ben Chiarot is putting us over the top, huh? what a terrible offer and argument. Go sell them individually then and leave us the hell alone

Habs are rebuilding, we need the 4 extra first round picks. More than Leon. If you deal Leon, we have ton of caproom for rent. Imagine capspace will come into that deal.

 

[bleedgreen]

They wouldn’t get a single offer that would be worth it and make them a better team now. You could only offer the best futures package if they were selling him off for that. That won’t help them now making this a worthless exercise.

 

[Lil Sebastian Cossa]

bold establishes you are not objective here.

There are 2 basic factors here: supply + demand and relative comparative value.

If there are 32 LeoDrais, one per each team, the value of each is reduced because need pushing demand is not super high. Same ditto if each club has a Shesty.
But if there are only a handlful of primo Fs [happen to all be Cs] then the value of each is much higher, supply and demand. Same with Gs.

As for relative or comparative value, there IS some sebnsitivity to position, but Cs and Gs are arguably indispensible, Ds highly coveted, and Ws merely desirable.
While Marner is a cut below he proves my point. He is a top, top level W. But he is less than a comparable upper echelon F who can also C and he is less than a high end G.

A goalie in hockey is like a pitcher in baseball. If he is strong enough, his performance can singlehandedly win a game.

so no.

The bold does no such thing. Man, I wish goalies were viewed as being as important as they are. But they're not... until they give up a "bad" goal in a playoff series and then it is all their fault. One more point on this... if defensemen are highly coveted and Ws merely desirable while goalies are indispensable... why do teams shell out crazy dollars for skaters, crazy high draft picks for skaters, and do everything they can to keep a high quality skater... while Frederik Andersen who has been really damn good has played for three or four teams? That Jonathan Bernier who was the star of the Wings the last couple years was moved on from? It's because goalies are fluid. It is super important that you have a capable one... but it doesn't have to be the same capable one.

I gave you the example of Dominik Hasek to Detroit in 2001. They had probably the biggest need in net. They traded for the highest comparative value goaltender on the face of the planet... in an age where the top teams didn't have a cap to deal with... and as evidence by what happened with Curtis Joseph and Dominik Hasek just three years later... top teams would sign goalies simply so other teams couldn't add them.

Cory Schneider in Vancouver was every bit the goalie that Shesterkin is now. He got traded for 9OA (which turned into Bo Horvat).

The difference between the best goalie in the league and a middling goalie is not gigantic.

Let's just check out Bernier's 18-19 vs Shesterkin's 20-21. Similar amount of games, shots, what have you. Bernier actually faced 2.5x as many good chances, but he gave up a bunch more goals on them too, so that's not a point in his favor.

Jonathan Bernier Stats | Hockey-Reference.com
Igor Shesterkin Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

You're talking the difference between a top 5 goalie and what you'd probably argue is a middle of the road at best starter is ~20 goals spread over 35 games.

Last point, you're right. A goalie is like a pitcher in baseball that he can win a game by playing well enough. But a goalie is also like a pitcher in baseball in that their impact on the team actually winning games is pretty damn limited. A goalie can stand on his head and pitch a shutout and the team could still lose in a shootout. Goalie could have a whole bunch of 1 or 2 goals against games which would be fabulous to maintain... and he could have a really bad record.

In terms of positional value

C
D
W
Goalie.

If that wasn't the case, you wouldn't have had Wallstedt or Cossa or Askarov the year before wait until picks 10-25 to be taken. Askarov in particular probably had the highest "elite talent" projection of anyone in last year's draft. And yet he went into the teens because goalies are not as valuable.

 

[YP44]

They wouldn’t get a single offer that would be worth it and make them a better team now. You could only offer the best futures package if they were selling him off for that. That won’t help them now making this a worthless exercise.

agreed, closest i could think of is very pie in the sky, would be something around Leon + koskinen for Bobrovsky + Huberdeau. That would be a lot of NMC needing to be waived and I likely there would need to be some retention somewhere to get this under the cap or more players added.

 

[DingDongCharlie]

not happening
but Drai is one guy I would incl Shesty in a package
and gamble on Benny Allaire developing a high end replacement

Drai + Broberg + 1st
for
Shesty + Lindgren + Krav

something like that

but again, not happening

That's your worst Broberg proposal I've seen yet.

 

[bernmeister]

The bold does no such thing. Man, I wish goalies were viewed as being as important as they are. But they're not... until they give up a "bad" goal in a playoff series and then it is all their fault. One more point on this... if defensemen are highly coveted and Ws merely desirable while goalies are indispensable... why do teams shell out crazy dollars for skaters, crazy high draft picks for skaters, and do everything they can to keep a high quality skater... while Frederik Andersen who has been really damn good has played for three or four teams? That Jonathan Bernier who was the star of the Wings the last couple years was moved on from? It's because goalies are fluid. It is super important that you have a capable one... but it doesn't have to be the same capable one.

I gave you the example of Dominik Hasek to Detroit in 2001. They had probably the biggest need in net. They traded for the highest comparative value goaltender on the face of the planet... in an age where the top teams didn't have a cap to deal with... and as evidence by what happened with Curtis Joseph and Dominik Hasek just three years later... top teams would sign goalies simply so other teams couldn't add them.

Cory Schneider in Vancouver was every bit the goalie that Shesterkin is now. He got traded for 9OA (which turned into Bo Horvat).

The difference between the best goalie in the league and a middling goalie is not gigantic.

Let's just check out Bernier's 18-19 vs Shesterkin's 20-21. Similar amount of games, shots, what have you. Bernier actually faced 2.5x as many good chances, but he gave up a bunch more goals on them too, so that's not a point in his favor.

Jonathan Bernier Stats | Hockey-Reference.com
Igor Shesterkin Stats | Hockey-Reference.com

You're talking the difference between a top 5 goalie and what you'd probably argue is a middle of the road at best starter is ~20 goals spread over 35 games.

Last point, you're right. A goalie is like a pitcher in baseball that he can win a game by playing well enough. But a goalie is also like a pitcher in baseball in that their impact on the team actually winning games is pretty damn limited. A goalie can stand on his head and pitch a shutout and the team could still lose in a shootout. Goalie could have a whole bunch of 1 or 2 goals against games which would be fabulous to maintain... and he could have a really bad record.

In terms of positional value

C
D
W
Goalie.

If that wasn't the case, you wouldn't have had Wallstedt or Cossa or Askarov the year before wait until picks 10-25 to be taken. Askarov in particular probably had the highest "elite talent" projection of anyone in last year's draft. And yet he went into the teens because goalies are not as valuable.

agree w/some not all of this
stand by what I said
shesty is signif
requires a LeoDrai level return to even be considered to be moved, at least for next 4 or 5 years on what I think I remember is a 6 yr deal atm

 

[bernmeister]

That's your worst Broberg proposal I've seen yet.

that is a secondary aspect
cap cap cap
NY+ Oil need to flip Broberg + Lindgren b'c Rangers need to squeeze every once of cap

 

[TFHockey]

agree w/some not all of this
stand by what I said
shesty is signif
requires a LeoDrai level return to even be considered to be moved, at least for next 4 or 5 years on what I think I remember is a 6 yr deal atm

I think you'll find yourself alone in that assessment. No one would consider it "Shesterkin requires a Draisaitl level return". Goalies, even great ones like Shesty, don't command that kind of return.

To look at this correctly, and I don't think I have my homer glasses on when I write this, is:

"To somehow land Leon Draisaitl the Rangers would have to add Shesterkin as part of a major package."

 

[bernmeister]

I think you'll find yourself alone in that assessment. No one would consider it "Shesterkin requires a Draisaitl level return". Goalies, even great ones like Shesty, don't command that kind of return.

To look at this correctly, and I don't think I have my homer glasses on when I write this, is:

"To somehow land Leon Draisaitl the Rangers would have to add Shesterkin as part of a major package."

this is 2 sides of the same coin, attempting to spin it to control the narrative is no less homer than you allege

Drai not going anywhere w/o a Shesty
Shesty not going anywhere w/o a Drai

and again for the record
responding as a courtesy to OP asking what if, what would it take

not advising Oil to deal either McD or LeoDrai
not advising NY to deal Shesty

 

[ElPrimeTime]

this is 2 sides of the same coin, attempting to spin it to control the narrative is no less homer than you allege

Drai not going anywhere w/o a Shesty
Shesty not going anywhere w/o a Drai

and again for the record
responding as a courtesy to OP asking what if, what would it take

not advising Oil to deal either McD or LeoDrai
not advising NY to deal Shesty

Except your trade proposal had the Oilers adding to Drai. I can’t think of any scenario where the Oilers are adding a 1st round pick and Broberg to get a goalie, a player who asked for a trade and a mid-pair d-man. Give your head a shake.

 

[WingsMJN2965]

Top 5 player in the league that costs $8.5M.

Yup. Trade makes total sense.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Habs are rebuilding, we need the 4 extra first round picks. More than Leon. If you deal Leon, we have ton of caproom for rent. Imagine capspace will come into that deal.

Cool, we can spend it on another Duncan Keith.

Montreal doesn’t have the pieces. They just don’t. Suzuki+++ or go away.

 

[Deplorable Lenny]

Draisaitl for Vlasic is this generation's Hall for Larsson

Not even close.

Drai is miles better than Hall ever was and Larsson was waaaaay better than Vlasic currently is. Also Vlasic has one of the worst contracts in the league whereas Larsson had a pretty good contract when got traded.

What a weird comparison

 

[bernmeister]

Except your trade proposal had the Oilers adding to Drai. I can’t think of any scenario where the Oilers are adding a 1st round pick and Broberg to get a goalie, a player who asked for a trade and a mid-pair d-man. Give your head a shake.

Like I said, NY needs cap room if they commit to LeoDrai and ongoing and in the short term that means Lindgren has to go. Broberg would be elc replacement. I agree he has more long term upside, but I wouldn't undervalue Lindy's current worth.

Lindgren is immediately productive,
for whatev reason, Broberg last I looked was not on the varsity

I defy your instruction -- laughing at your attempt to tell me -- and do an argent, holding my head high

 

[ElPrimeTime]

Like I said, NY needs cap room if they commit to LeoDrai and ongoing and in the short term that means Lindgren has to go. Broberg would be elc replacement. I agree he has more long term upside, but I wouldn't undervalue Lindy's current worth.

Lindgren is immediately productive,
for whatev reason, Broberg last I looked was not on the varsity

I defy your instruction -- laughing at your attempt to tell me -- and do an argent, holding my head high

Even without Broberg and the 1st, Lindgren does not come close to closing the gap between Drai and Shesterkin. That’s the part you’re missing. There is no goalie in the league worth Draisaitl.

 

[Oddbob]

There is no way they would ever get a good enough group of players via trade. Every time a big star like this gets traded, the team trading them loses out. Also, how does trading him help them get better? They immediately have to have someone who can score like he does, and then what?

 

[Scintillating10]

Cool, we can spend it on another Duncan Keith.

Montreal doesn’t have the pieces. They just don’t. Suzuki+++ or go away.

We can't trade our pick in Leon deal. It's going to be either Shane Wright or Savoie. Each is going to be a first line scoring star only 7 years younger and 10 million cheaper than Leon.

Chiarot for your first is only legit trade I see. He will help your netminding. Your defense looked shaky in Leafs game. Likely attributing to your goaltending underachieving. I doubt it is all the goalies you've had in last 5 years fault. But I don't know your team well.

If you don't improve your defense the only to get Oil close to a Cup is Price. All the others are locked up. But Price is not available. I see slim chance he comes back this season. He hasn't even practiced yet.

Spending a first on a Georgiv, MAF or Allen is likely a waste of you're pick. They will help, may get you in playoffs but not close to a Cup. With your defense and average netminding, I would go for a hybrid. Improve defense, a Chiarot type, combined with a MAF. Georgie will be expensive. Allen is an option. Habs retain, Oil get this playoff out of him and flip him over summer. He is good depth. Allen at 1.4 million has value in summer. Allen as a vet be better fit for Rangers. He has a ring and Habs can retain. Maybe 3 way deal?

 

[bernmeister]

Even without Broberg and the 1st, Lindgren does not come close to closing the gap between Drai and Shesterkin. That’s the part you’re missing. There is no goalie in the league worth Draisaitl.

Not missing anything.
regardless of worth, NY does not move shesty/+ for less than Drai, and we are not gutting overpay to get Drai

very happy w/youth, depth and a few stars

 

[bernmeister]

We can't trade our pick in Leon deal. It's going to be either Shane Wright or Savoie. Each is going to be a first line scoring star only 7 years younger and 10 million cheaper than Leon.

Chiarot for your first is only legit trade I see. He will help your netminding. Your defense looked shaky in Leafs game. Likely attributing to your goaltending underachieving. I doubt it is all the goalies you've had in last 5 years fault. But I don't know your team well.

If you don't improve your defense the only to get Oil close to a Cup is Price. All the others are locked up. But Price is not available. I see slim chance he comes back this season. He hasn't even practiced yet.

Spending a first on a Georgiv, MAF or Allen is likely a waste of you're pick. They will help, may get you in playoffs but not close to a Cup. With your defense and average netminding, I would go for a hybrid. Improve defense, a Chiarot type, combined with a MAF. Georgie will be expensive. Allen is an option. Habs retain, Oil get this playoff out of him and flip him over summer. He is good depth. Allen at 1.4 million has value in summer. Allen as a vet be better fit for Rangers. He has a ring and Habs can retain. Maybe 3 way deal?

Geo will not cost a 1st, only a current 2nd, more if retained, Kosk comes back, etc.
a la carte pricing

NY does not want to spend assets to acquire Allen. If you need a broker for a 3 way and we get futures for facilitating, fine, otherwise no.

Allen not better than Geo if Geo gets regular work as a starter which is how we value his trade worth.

Next season we will move on from w/in system.
We currently have Kinkaid and Huska to be placeholder for when Shesty sits.
Not sure if he took Kosk we don't place him on waivers to send him down, and if someone takes him, great.... if not AHL it is.

Huska's first game vs formidible Avalanche was terrible, but I saw the game. 1st goal all his fault
rest of it, no team support
playing well in the A
would like to see him vs non elite NHL teams just to see what he has

 

[BHFAN92]

to Edmonton: Partick Kane (50% retained)5.25mil, MAF (50% retained)3.5mil, and Kirby Dach
to Chicago: Leon Draisaitl

Edmonton gets the talent, vet presence playoff experience, and youth and Chicago gets a key rebuilding piece.

 

[SwedishFire]

With that cheap contract, it will be a disaster for edmonton. Thry would grt more cap back than they give away.

No. The Leon McDavid trade proposals is always made to fail.

 

[Homesick]

to Edmonton: Partick Kane (50% retained)5.25mil, MAF (50% retained)3.5mil, and Kirby Dach
to Chicago: Leon Draisaitl

Edmonton gets the talent, vet presence playoff experience, and youth and Chicago gets a key rebuilding piece.

lol not even close. Hawks don't have the assets to even be in the game

 

[ottawa]

You don’t trade him or Mcdavid unless they openly want out. Using Toronto as an example, I’d say I would wanna give up
I’m gonna use Nylander as an example to make cap a lot easier and Edmonton saves 3-4 million in the total deal to try and keep finding fixes to roster, but Marner can be swapped in too.

Nylander + Muzzin + 1st + Robertson/Amirov

that’s equivalent to 5-6 first round picks

oilers would want maybe something like
Nylander + Rielly + 1st + 1st + Amirov

And this is only if we talk mixed futures and now if we talk full roster or fill futures it would be like

roster(value wise)
nylander + Rielly + Kase + Muzzin + bunting?

we can’t even do full futures cuz we have nothing enticing enough but my best shot would be
Amirov + Robertson + Niemela + Sandin + 1st
oilers Aren’t gonna take 2 top 6 prospects tops and 2 top 4 dman tops with a 1st

you gotta try and shed koskinen, Turris, Ryan, Sceviour and barrie and maybe smith then replace them with either in house options or good deals

This is awful for the Oilers...my guess is it would take something closer to this

Nylander
Rielly
1st 2022
Campbell
Niemala/Robertson

Draisaitl + goalie

 

[Scintillating10]

Geo will not cost a 1st, only a current 2nd, more if retained, Kosk comes back, etc.
a la carte pricing

NY does not want to spend assets to acquire Allen. If you need a broker for a 3 way and we get futures for facilitating, fine, otherwise no.

Allen not better than Geo if Geo gets regular work as a starter which is how we value his trade worth.

Next season we will move on from w/in system.
We currently have Kinkaid and Huska to be placeholder for when Shesty sits.
Not sure if he took Kosk we don't place him on waivers to send him down, and if someone takes him, great.... if not AHL it is.

Huska's first game vs formidible Avalanche was terrible, but I saw the game. 1st goal all his fault
rest of it, no team support
playing well in the A
would like to see him vs non elite NHL teams just to see what he has

No way Rangers move Geo for a 2nd. That's talking thru your hat.

Why they move him, he's depth and they are a cup team

 

[LosPollosHermanos]

Chychrun for draisaitl and a 2nd