Trade Ideas

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

This is what we currently have (don't mind the pairings):

walman - seider
chiarot - ghost
maatta - holl/petry

By trading maatta and ghost, this is what we would have (in this hypothetical trade of course):

Walman - Seider
Hanifin - Petry
Edvinsson - Chiarot/Holl

So we still have the depth. Literally the same amount of players on defense. We lose a callup in Edvinsson, but we replace him with aljo/wallinder/tuomisto in that order. So we still have the depth.

edit: and I thought we all agreed that bringing up drafting lindstrom the pick before robertson was a cause of vietnam flashbacks ptsd that we weren't supposed to say anymore. no shame from you i see....dic*

As much as I want Edvinsson up, I think he'll be up full time in 2024-25.

Maatta is easily traded in the offseason of 2024 to open up that spot for Edvinsson.

 

[SimonEdvinssonAtSix]

You can't trade Ghost AND Maatta at the same time. That's counter to the depth Yzerman is trying to build with the team.

And I don't want to give Draper anymore 2nd round picks. Since 2016 here's Detroit's 2nd round picks.

Givani Smith
Filip Hronek
Gustav Lindstrom (literally the pick before Jason Robertson)
Jonny Burgers
Jared McIsaac
Antti Tuomisto (looks like he's turning it around but still not great)
Robert Mastrosimone
Albert Johansson
William Wallinder
Theodor Niederbach
Cross Hanas
Shai Buium
Dylan James
Dmitri Buchelnikov
Trey Augustine
Andrew Gibson
Brady Cleveland

17 picks. 1 full time NHLer in Hronek, 1 soon to be fulltime NHLer in Burgers, 1 high potential scoring winger prospect, 1 high potential goalie prospect. The rest...well...the Wings could have done better.

Why are you going back to 2016?
Draper took over in July of 2019, so if you're trying to establish a track record for Draper picks wouldn't 2020 be the starting point? So Wallinder and onward are the Draper picks. (Correct?)

Or are you saying that the Wings as a whole are drafting poorly in the second? Because it seems like you're lumping together some data that Draper isn't responsible for.

Am I missing something about the 2016 starting point? It was Wrights show before 2020..... dude, am I losing my mind here?

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Why are you going back to 2016?
Draper took over in July of 2019, so if you're trying to establish a track record for Draper picks wouldn't 2020 be the starting point? So Wallinder and onward are the Draper picks. (Correct?)

Or are you saying that the Wings as a whole are drafting poorly in the second? Because it seems like you're lumping together some data that Draper isn't responsible for.

Am I missing something about the 2016 starting point? It was Wrights show before 2020..... dude, am I losing my mind here?

I'm looking as far back as the Red Wings rebuild starting (2016). Those picks are more valuable in trades than at the draft.

The Wings haven't done very well in the 2nd round is the point. Whether under Tyler Wright or Draper, the 2nd round for Detroit has not been great for us.

 

[Ricelund]

I'm counting on Hanifin getting traded somewhere he's going to sign long term.

Detroit (only if Calgary helps clear up the logjam on D.)

I wouldn't worry about the logjam. If they end up trading for Hanifin, I'm sure they'll be able to find a taker for one of the veteran D before the playoffs. Send Maatta to Tampa.

 

[norrisnick]

I wouldn't worry about the logjam. If they end up trading for Hanifin, I'm sure they'll be able to find a taker for one of the veteran D before the playoffs. Send Maatta to Tampa.

Send them Ghost. They lost offense more than D with Sergachev out. That and we really shouldn't improve Tampa.

 

[Detroit Knights]

Send them Ghost. They lost offense more than D with Sergachev out. That and we really shouldn't improve Tampa.

Dont hate it.

Maatta to TBL for what 4th? 3rd?
Ghost, first, 2nd, viro to calgary for hanifin unsigned?

potential pairings for playoff run:
walman - seider
hanfin - petry
edvinsson - chiarot/holl

Let's all unite under this new regime!

 

[SimonEdvinssonAtSix]

I'm looking as far back as the Red Wings rebuild starting (2016). Those picks are more valuable in trades than at the draft.

The Wings haven't done very well in the 2nd round is the point. Whether under Tyler Wright or Draper, the 2nd round for Detroit has not been great for us.

I gotcha.

Part of the problem here though is the circumstances surrounding these picks.

The Wings when through a management change and Covid years, both of which could have impacted the results from 2020 onward.

Some of the recent picks were questionable for sure, last years draft in particular. Yet I think that Wallinder will pay dividends along with Augustine. If we managed to pull a Starter and Top 4 D out of the second within 4 drafts of each other, that's pretty good. No?!

I'm not a statistics guy, so I may be wrong there, but I'd be curious to know the numbers on 2nd rounders and NHL success rate,

 

[Snuggs]

One guy did a report/analysis like this once, but the draft years were from 2000-2009. He found that in that time 74% of first round picks produced players that played in the NHL with 100 games or more. Same time frame, 2nd rounders only 34% of the players selected played in the NHL with 100 games or more. 3rd round was 27%

So, 1 out of 4 is 25%.

Nah, you'd be technically missing the mark set by league average based on 2000-2009 data. BUT... you added a nice caveat of him being a top 4 defensemen, meaning he'd be a significant NHLer with over 300 games played. That probability alone, in the 2nd round is way, way lower than 34%.

So, based on this data, Red Wings would be drafting as well in the 2nd round as the rest of the league is collectively drafting on average in the 3rd round.

Out of this it's found that about 35-45 players per draft no matter what round selected end up playing significant NHL careers, (over 300 games). In this time, pick 48, for whatever reason, didn't produce a single player that played 100 NHL games. Things in the first round really take a dive after pick 7.

*Edit* Found the article. It'd be interesting if someone could update the data with something like 2010-2020. I'm sure drafting only got better. Though, it'd be interesting to see how much and where. NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

 

[Christien]

Nothing shocking

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Nothing shocking

The wings need to be horrendous over the next 28 days for Yzerman to consider selling.

Here's our opponents over that span:
Vancouver x2
Edmonton
Seattle
Calgary
Colorado x2
St. Louis
Chicago
NYI
Washington
Florida
Arizona

The bolded are the games I expect Detroit to lose, taking a split with Vancouver.

If Detroit can get 14 to 16 points out of 26 then I think it's safe to say Detroit should be in the buyer category. If they hurry up and buy Hanifin sooner than later then I think they have an even better shot at turning that 14/26 expectation into 18/26.

 

[norrisnick]

I mean selling doesn't mean giving up. Moving Ghost to a team that needs the offense from the blue line for assets we can use on a bigger piece with some of our own assets just makes sense. Ditto with a winger.

We have plug n play replacements that wouldn't make us any worse. It wouldn't be like last year or years prior.

 

[Detroit Knights]

The wings need to be horrendous over the next 28 days for Yzerman to consider selling.

Here's our opponents over that span:
Vancouver x2
Edmonton
Seattle
Calgary
Colorado x2
St. Louis
Chicago
NYI
Washington
Florida
Arizona

The bolded are the games I expect Detroit to lose, taking a split with Vancouver.

If Detroit can get 14 to 16 points out of 26 then I think it's safe to say Detroit should be in the buyer category. If they hurry up and buy Hanifin sooner than later then I think they have an even better shot at turning that 14/26 expectation into 18/26.

I don't think we lose to edmonton tbh. We play mcdavid pretty well and during their win streak, they didn't play any top 5 or 6 teams in the league and played mostly bottom 15 teams or so in the league.

I have a feeling that we don't trade for hanifin until after we play calgary on the 17th. That will be like his "tryout" or whatever if he likes what he sees or not. Maybe that's why it's taking so long for us to get there .Interestingly enough....hanifin has said his agent is going to meet with the front office of calgary next week to discuss the future....we play them next saturday

 

[Detroit Knights]

You guys keep throwing him out there like he is some sort of throw-in for trade deals. We would be in a very unfortunate position if we did.

 

[norrisnick]

You guys keep throwing him out there like he is some sort of throw-in for trade deals. We would be in a very unfortunate position if we did.

Of the 3 LHD AlJo is the one I want to keep the most. Willy Wally or Buium can be adds. Largely because AlJo has had success playing in the right side. That's big.

Obviously Ed isn't in this discussion.

 

[Winger98]

I mean selling doesn't mean giving up. Moving Ghost to a team that needs the offense from the blue line for assets we can use on a bigger piece with some of our own assets just makes sense. Ditto with a winger.

We have plug n play replacements that wouldn't make us any worse. It wouldn't be like last year or years prior.

And I think Yzerman has a bit of a history of being willing to move guys for picks in years his team is in the playoffs. If the return is there I don't think Yzerman is an automatic no just because the Wings are in the playoff mix.

 

[OgeeOgelthorpe]

Of the 3 LHD AlJo is the one I want to keep the most. Willy Wally or Buium can be adds. Largely because AlJo has had success playing in the right side. That's big.

Obviously Ed isn't in this discussion.

God damnit, I'm agreeing with you on something.

Johansson has the makings of a very good puckmoving D with very high compete. I don't know if he's going to be a more physical Sam Girard or this generation's Darryl Sydor or something in between. His skating is going to almost guarantee him an NHL spot one day, and he's cleaned up his decision making issues.

 

[Roomba With a Bauer]

And I think Yzerman has a bit of a history of being willing to move guys for picks in years his team is in the playoffs. If the return is there I don't think Yzerman is an automatic no just because the Wings are in the playoff mix.

If someone like Tampa is willing to overpay for Ghost due to injuries (say their 2026 1st or their 2025\26 seconds) I think Yzerman trades him in a heartbeat and brings up Edvinsson.

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Berggren and Ghost moved at the deadline just because of our depth and the return they could bring, regardless of their playoff position.

 

[datsyukfan]

I think some of you guys think that Ed would just replace Ghost. Ghost drives offense and moves the puck better than anyone on this roster on D. We expect a rookie just to replace him? That’s asking a lot

 

[DoMakc]

I think some of you guys think that Ed would just replace Ghost. Ghost drives offense and moves the puck better than anyone on this roster on D. We expect a rookie just to replace him? That’s asking a lot

Ghost scored 12 out of 32 points at even strength. One less than Seider and Petry, same amount as Chiarot and Maatta. GF he is seventh behind Holl. HDCF forth one more than Maatta. I trust Edvinsson to drive offence on Maatta level while playing better defence. And Seider can take over his PP time.

 

[Detroit Knights]

I think some of you guys think that Ed would just replace Ghost. Ghost drives offense and moves the puck better than anyone on this roster on D. We expect a rookie just to replace him? That’s asking a lot

He also has a habit of trying to pass the puck in between 4 guys legs and sticks flapping everywhere, but dammit when one finally goes through, it still sets up absolutely nothing.

 

[norrisnick]

At even strength Ghost is the worst D we have with regards to generating or preventing offense. Ed can very easily replace his -15 goal differential...

 

[TheOctopusKid]

People sleep too much on AlJo. He is good at hockey. I expect him to end up a mainstay in our D for many years to come.

 

[ricky0034]

people want to trade for Hanifin AND think Edvinsson will get a roster spot AND think Johansson will get a roster spot

....is 10D the new 4 Goalies?

 

[norrisnick]

people want to trade for Hanifin AND think Edvinsson will get a roster spot AND think Johansson will get a roster spot

....is 10D the new 4 Goalies?

Nah... we just want @jaster to develop an ulcer because we only dress 1 right-handed D.

 

[Frk It]

God damnit, I'm agreeing with you on something.

Johansson has the makings of a very good puckmoving D with very high compete. I don't know if he's going to be a more physical Sam Girard or this generation's Darryl Sydor or something in between. His skating is going to almost guarantee him an NHL spot one day, and he's cleaned up his decision making issues.

I struggle to see where Johansson is going to fit in with this group we have and are building.

It’s a bit concerning to me he’s not getting more PP usage in Grand Rapids. It’s tough to be a 185 lb defenseman at the NHL level that doesn’t play on the power play. Last time we had that was Danny Dekeyser and that was not a good time for me.

I would like to see him get a trial run with us because I do think he has some talent/ability as a player, I’m just worried it’s not going to materialize at this point.