Trade, FA and Rumours 2022/23

[TS Quint]

I'm not thinking your talking about a deadline trade value when I'm talking about top value.

Look he had the most value to the Jets to trade with 2 years to go period. We did NOT get top value period. And 4 years later we been nowhere near a Conference final. So how'd that work out.

If your happy with number 4 or 5 dman and a AHL dman then I don't know what say other then I'm sure not.

We actually had some depth then on D we should have been gunning to keep that roster fluid and on top. The shortsighted thinking is why we are where we are now. We need to have the balls to trade guys when you know for certain they are not going to stay period.

He didnt lose any value that's just something you are making up. You cant even guess how much more value you apparently think he had. Show me some other similar trades you would expect for Trouba if they would have traded him and their Confernce Final away in he hopes we could go to a Confernince Final 4,5 , 6 years later.

The Jets traded him as a far better player. That has more value to a team trying to win. The only thing that devalued him was Trouba limited the teams he would sign with.

 

[scelaton]

I disagree on your assessment of Stanley and Samberg having similar ceilings.

The team is noticeably better with Samberg out there. I don't see Stanley's ceiling as even being where Samberg is now, let alone 2-3 years down the road. The ceilings are different because Samberg has far better puck skills and skating. Samberg has far better situational awareness IMO. If Stanley sees the puck on his side his complete instinct is to pinch but he doesn't have the skill for it which ends up causing defensive issues. The physical piece, maybe similar, but in the long run a guy who can't skate really can't handle any role above 3rd pairing 5 on 5. I think Stanley is settling in at that level and I hope the Jets realize it and don't do something stupid to keep him around.

I don't believe Stanley has much trade value. I'd be surprised if we got more than a 5th round pick for him, more likely another "draft bust" type NHL-AHL tweener guy.

Projecting (a ceiling) into the future is not science and I am betting there are still a GMs or two out there willing to pay for potential.

I have been skeptical of Stanley's ability from the beginning and do fear he is losing value over time, but the Jets continue to give him the benefit of the doubt. So might other teams.

Samberg has hockey IQ that Stanley doesn't, but little to no offensive chops. I suspect he has become somewhat over-rated on this board, but likely under-rated/unknown around the league. That discrepancy in assessed value between the two is why I think Stanley has more value in trade (as opposed to intrinsic value).

We shall see, won't we? They need to do something soon, as there are opportunity costs to the club and players by doing nothing.

 

[TS Quint]

read on how xGF is calculated and it'll make sense. anything % is a share. 2 players can have xGF that are virtually the same even if you can have differing CF. CF is just a count of shot-attempts for, and xGF assigns a value based on criteria (shot distance, type etc.)

you can have high CF (high volume shooters) which will accumulate high xGF.... Ehlers is an example of this.
last season: individual shot attempts/60: 21.72 for individual xGF/60 = 1.

then you have players w/ lower attempts but higher xGF proportionally... players like PLD doesnt shoot a lot comparatively but closer to the net so score higher in quality
last season: iCF/60 14.01, but ixGF/60 0.97.

so on 7 less shot attempts, he's basically the same xGF. which is higher quality per attempt. makes sense as PLD made his living in front of the net (higher probability to score).

per 60 for vs against
Perfetti is 56 vs 54 for CF% of 51% share
Scheifele is 57 vs 66 for CF% 46%

per 60 xGF vs xGA
Perfetti is 2.61 vs 3.62 of xGF% 42%
Schefeifele is 2.45 vs 3.51 xGF% 41%

so when perfetti is on the ice the Jets give up lesser shot attempts in volume, but they are of higher quality (on a per attempt basis). think back to the PLD vs Ehlers example, but for the opposition.

their shot quality for is basically the same (on a per attempt basis)

That's a dumb model to use on wingers. You're evaluating them for areas of the ice they don't control.

 

[KingBogo]

My guess is that if Ottawa is scouting Winnipeg right now, it's Ville Heinola, because their defense isn't doing much. Sanderson-Hamonic have been good for the most part. Chabot has had a bit of a struggle, they brought Bernard-Docker up to help him, with Zub out. Zaitsev got waived, and I'm sure he's on the way out, or going to be demoted. Brannstrom is probably still disappointing the Sens management, and may never live up to the expectations. I see real good opportunity for Ville Heinola over there, that doesn't exist here. For me any Heinola talks with Ottawa start with Ridley Greig, and then a replacement defenseman, Moose level. Maybe Jacob Larsson since he's been terrible for Belleville, but I don't think he's that bad. Maybe I'm wrong about that one. Greig could be one of those Tanev types who'd be a sparkplug for the checking line. And can play up the lineup.

Greig is a decent prospect and is likely to develop into a 3rd line shit disturber with enough offense he can be moved up the lineup when needed. But is this enough of a return for Heinola? I would hope for a little bit more in return, beyond a plug to fill out the bottom of the Moose lineup.

 

[BoneDocUK]

I'd hate to lose DeMelo, but I'd be okay with Schmidt.

Me too. I like Schmidt for his skating and occasional bullet from the point, and as a great in the room guy / neo-Hendricks and mentor for young D, but DeMelo is just flat-out more useful to us at this point.

I also think you keep the true RHD over the weakside D when you're overflowing with LHD prospects, and you've got a guy as good and versatile as DD.

 

[TS Quint]

I don't think Montreal has any intention of trading him. He's the replacement for Danault. 3rd line centre. Maybe 2nd line centre right now, depends on how the ice time is split with Monahan.

If Montreal is trying to acquire Dubois likely one of the 2 1sts they have would be on the table, depending on who ends up better between them and Florida. And a prospect, like Kidney. Don't know what else. If Chevy could land Justin Barron that's not bad, but that's reaching.

Because Montreal to trade for Dubois are going to have to believe that are in a year of contention, and other than Dubois, I think they need a clear top 2 d-man to legitimize any chance of that. As of today Klingberg, Dumba and Severson are potential UFAs this offseason, as an upgrade. Otherwise there's no reason to move assets on their part, when they can wait it out. Maybe the Rangers could sneak in, but pretty sure Brisson and Dubois intend on going to Montreal.

For the Jets maybe this becomes an own rental situation if you don't get an offer you like. Jets are contending this year. What's to say they can't next year. The Scheifele situation is equally murky, but if you got an offer like Kasper from Yzerman, who himself has Larkin as a UFA this year, that's something to think about. Another blue chip prospect to add to Lucius, Mc Groarty and Lambert, and maybe even the 2 Russians, goes a long way in keeping the team growing. I think the Jets definitely are going to want an established #1 centre for at least next year, before they transition someone else into that role. If the Jets sign either of their top 2 centres, I think that increases the chances of re-signing one of their top wingers too down the road.

I don't think Montreal has any intention of trading him. He's the replacement for Danault. 3rd line centre. Maybe 2nd line centre right now, depends on how the ice time is split with Monahan.

If Montreal is trying to acquire Dubois likely one of the 2 1sts they have would be on the table, depending on who ends up better between them and Florida. And a prospect, like Kidney. Don't know what else. If Chevy could land Justin Barron that's not bad, but that's reaching.

Because Montreal to trade for Dubois are going to have to believe that are in a year of contention, and other than Dubois, I think they need a clear top 2 d-man to legitimize any chance of that. As of today Klingberg, Dumba and Severson are potential UFAs this offseason, as an upgrade. Otherwise there's no reason to move assets on their part, when they can wait it out. Maybe the Rangers could sneak in, but pretty sure Brisson and Dubois intend on going to Montreal.

For the Jets maybe this becomes an own rental situation if you don't get an offer you like. Jets are contending this year. What's to say they can't next year. The Scheifele situation is equally murky, but if you got an offer like Kasper from Yzerman, who himself has Larkin as a UFA this year, that's something to think about. Another blue chip prospect to add to Lucius, Mc Groarty and Lambert, and maybe even the 2 Russians, goes a long way in keeping the team growing. I think the Jets definitely are going to want an established #1 centre for at least next year, before they transition someone else into that role. If the Jets sign either of their top 2 centres, I think that increases the chances of re-signing one of their top wingers too down the road.

Kasper? Haha, and you thought you were reaching for Barron?

 

[BoneDocUK]

If we are moving a RD and we can find a taker that will us a good forward then I move Pionk. He's solid but his role as a second pairing puck moving RD is being filled better via Schmidt and we know DeMelonworks with JoMo. Do we lose much of anything replacing Pionk on the third with Ville?

Well, I'm sure as shootin never moving that DeMelonworks hombre. If anything we need more effective tastiness in our D.

Have to say this has been a really fun thread to catch up on. Plenty of good discussion here in terms of variety, depth and collegiality.

So much more fun here when we're playing good hockey!

 

[Jet]

Greig is a decent prospect and is likely to develop into a 3rd line shit disturber with enough offense he can be moved up the lineup when needed. But is this enough of a return for Heinola? I would hope for a little bit more in return, beyond a plug to fill out the bottom of the Moose lineup.

I wouldn't do it as I think we have a surplus of those kinds of guys.

If you are trading Ville - you have to either get a guy who improves the roster today, or a prospect that has a similar projected value as him.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I think the Tkachuk name is blinding you there, he's better than Dubois and Trouba and was the best player in that trade. Whether Florida should've done it is another matter but he's an excellent player.

He is an excellent player. But he had never achieved like last year in any previous year. He is off to another good start this year. I didn't say he wasn't as good as, or better than, Dubois or Trouba. Just that I'm not ready to accept that as a given yet. It is another debate and a lot of things come into it.

But he is a Tkachuk POS regardless of how good he may be.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

A few comments about our D and potential trades

Pionk is our 1RD at the moment and is having a bounce-back year. Since the Trouba trade keeps coming up-Trouba is a 2RD for NYR, playing fewer minutes per game than Pionk and taking up a pile of cap. As for the other piece in the Trouba trade, only 2 defensemen from Heinola's draft year have yet made an impact in the NHL, so there is plenty of opportunity for him to fulfill his potential. The Jets scouting department were well aware of Pionk's potential and the value of a first rounder when they made that trade. So, I don't know why anyone would think we would trade PLD for a known mediocre return.

DeMelo is worth every penny he is being paid and makes the rookies around him better, so it makes no sense to trade him.

Schmidt costing us $6M in AAV for a third pair role and that makes him expendable

Dillon has made himself nonexpendable this season and is a great compliment for a young PMD

That leaves Stanley, Samberg and Heinola. Stanley and Samberg have similar ceilings, but Stanley is probably worth more on the market. Heinola has a much higher offensive ceiling than either, but still could fizzle out.

My choices for trade are Stanley, followed by Schmidt, as both are over-valued and easily replaceable.

A few comments about your comments.

Pionk is 1RD only by default. DeMelo should be there but he is a poor partner for rookies/relatively inexperienced non-rookies. Is he having a bounce back year? Last I saw anyone here post stats, he was doing badly, as I recall. He was bad last year with Dillon so is not a good candidate to go back there. JMo is tasked with carrying him. The comparison to Trouba doesn't stand up except for a very short term. Trouba may line up as a 2RD but only because NYR have ab embarrassment of riches at the position.

Yes there is time for Heinola, but he appears to be stagnating in the AHL. Between having Heinola available and Pionk's less than outstanding play, Pionk is expendable - for the right return.

PLD could reasonably be traded for a package including Dvorak but there would need to be some good adds and it couldn't be done now. Maybe at the TD if Jets implode which doesn't look likely right now. But in the off-season, it could happen, depending on the adds.

DeMelo is worth every penny and then some. At least for the short term, he is a keeper.

Schmidt is not playing a 3rd pair role this year. He is playing 2nd pair with Dillon and both seem to be doing much better than last year. I still think he is overpaid and Heinola might be able to take his spot so he might be expendable, but again, only for the right price. Things are going too well right now to mess it up just to save a little cap space.

 

[WolfHouse]

We totally have the cap space…

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

8 Games under Arniel 42.29% Xgf. 4 Games under Bowness 55.16% Xgf according to a random twitter person

Both sample sizes too small to be meaningful.

 

[Hunter368]

We totally have the cap space…

Chevy likely is planning to use that cap on forward(s) not a backup, just a guess

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

If Dvorak is a good 3C with two years of team control, I don’t know if I see him being worth a late 1st. Maybe depending on the market, but i feel teams that are in the market for him are likely contenders and they’d be more likely to spend a 1st on a top 6 rental. If Dubois wants to go to Montreal, that’s fine, but the market should be more open than just the Habs if we’re trading him next season as a one year rental.

A 1st plus a B prospect is the ask for PLD next summer/deadline. I don’t think that’s unreasonable. If Jets fans are asking for more, then I’d say they’re being unrealistic, but I expect the value to be a 1st plus a B prospect, and I guess just don’t value Dvorak the same as you because I don’t want him taking the place of a 1st round pick in the scenario PLD is traded.

That is a later 1st. What are the odds of that pick even becoming an NHL player? Dvorak is one, and a reasonably successful one at that. OTOH he will be 29 when his contract expires. Its not like he is 22 YO with a long career in front of him. But I think he might be getting undervalued here a bit. The suggestion of a trade involving him includes 1 or 2 adds. The adds have to be good enough to make up the value difference.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Yeah it comes down to the Jets as a team being inordinately punished for the Vegas game on the last road trip.

That game contributed 17% of the teams total XGA but the game as an event is only worth roughly 8% of the total points available to date. That game is skewing everything about the team so far from individual players to the team as a whole. I would expect any statistician worth their salt to properly smooth their data when doing an analysis. You take that outlier out and all of a sudden the numbers accross the board look good.

Just another example of stats that rely on volume to be meaningful being used in small samples. Happens way too often.

 

[DRW204]

If you take away the Jets worst game they're about 2.64 xga/60 as a team. That'd be around middle of the pack but obviously doesn't exlcude all other teams worst games too.

Nevertheless I think the Jets have shown improvements in defense via better transition game from def to offense as of late. I don't think they're really better at defending, just better at defending less.

 

[DRW204]

My guess is that if Ottawa is scouting Winnipeg right now, it's Ville Heinola, because their defense isn't doing much. Sanderson-Hamonic have been good for the most part. Chabot has had a bit of a struggle, they brought Bernard-Docker up to help him, with Zub out. Zaitsev got waived, and I'm sure he's on the way out, or going to be demoted. Brannstrom is probably still disappointing the Sens management, and may never live up to the expectations. I see real good opportunity for Ville Heinola over there, that doesn't exist here. For me any Heinola talks with Ottawa start with Ridley Greig, and then a replacement defenseman, Moose level. Maybe Jacob Larsson since he's been terrible for Belleville, but I don't think he's that bad. Maybe I'm wrong about that one. Greig could be one of those Tanev types who'd be a sparkplug for the checking line. And can play up the lineup.

I don't think Ottawa would do this move right now. But, when healthy, with Norris and Stutzle as their top-6 Cs, I'd move one of our young LD(+?) for Pinto, if PLD is still not signing.

 

[voyageur]

Greig is a decent prospect and is likely to develop into a 3rd line shit disturber with enough offense he can be moved up the lineup when needed. But is this enough of a return for Heinola? I would hope for a little bit more in return, beyond a plug to fill out the bottom of the Moose lineup.

The Jets brass would have seen quite a bit of Greig over the past couple of years. If the hole immediately is for a winger to play on the checking line, one who could score, but also agitate, like nobody's business, and someone who can actually move up the lineup besides Appleton, there's not a lot of those guys around. Heinola is stuck in a rut of being an offensive catalyst, who isn't strong enough defensively. There's something about that draft class of d-men, from 8-20 all still being in the minors, that says maybe it wasn't as good a people thought. Greig was in a strong draft class. I'd jump on a trade for him. I'd include Harkins in it, to give him a fresh start somewhere else, since he probably doesn't want to ride the bus with the Moose this year, and try to get one of Belleville's LD back, because it balances out the trade, Moose are already thin on defense until Ogilny comes back. Allow Chisholm and Lundmark to move up a spot in the depth chart.

 

[surixon]

If you take away the Jets worst game they're about 2.64 xga/60 as a team. That'd be around middle of the pack but obviously doesn't exlcude all other teams worst games too.

Nevertheless I think the Jets have shown improvements in defense via better transition game from def to offense as of late. I don't think they're really better at defending, just better at defending less.

Sure, but how many teams have a game as bad as that Vegas game? The Jets last three plus games don't even wipe out half of the negative impact from that one game. How much does one result actually tell you if it takes 5 or 6 strong results to wipe out?

Anyhow I agree that the transition is helping us spend less time in our zone which for this group is likely the best way to defend.

 

[KingBogo]

The Jets brass would have seen quite a bit of Greig over the past couple of years. If the hole immediately is for a winger to play on the checking line, one who could score, but also agitate, like nobody's business, and someone who can actually move up the lineup besides Appleton, there's not a lot of those guys around. Heinola is stuck in a rut of being an offensive catalyst, who isn't strong enough defensively. There's something about that draft class of d-men, from 8-20 all still being in the minors, that says maybe it wasn't as good a people thought. Greig was in a strong draft class. I'd jump on a trade for him. I'd include Harkins in it, to give him a fresh start somewhere else, since he probably doesn't want to ride the bus with the Moose this year, and try to get one of Belleville's LD back, because it balances out the trade, Moose are already thin on defense until Ogilny comes back. Allow Chisholm and Lundmark to move up a spot in the depth chart.

I don’t know enough about Grieg to know for sure if the value equals Heinola. He is the type of player we haven’t usually had on our roster. A shit disturber who can actually play hockey. These types of players usually add more than just their production.

 

[surixon]

I don’t know enough about Grieg to know for sure if the value equals Heinola. He is the type of player we haven’t usually had on our roster. A shit disturber who can actually play hockey. These types of players usually add more than just their production.

I'm not sure Greig is that much different then Gus and we already have Gus. I wouldn't be trading Ville for him myself.

 

[snowkiddin]

That is a later 1st. What are the odds of that pick even becoming an NHL player? Dvorak is one, and a reasonably successful one at that. OTOH he will be 29 when his contract expires. Its not like he is 22 YO with a long career in front of him. But I think he might be getting undervalued here a bit. The suggestion of a trade involving him includes 1 or 2 adds. The adds have to be good enough to make up the value difference.

And a meh prospect and a mid-round pick are not good enough.

 

[voyageur]

I'm not sure Greig is that much different then Gus and we already have Gus. I wouldn't be trading Ville for him myself.

I think you are putting the bar a little low here Sur. I mean for comparison Greig scored at the same rate as Perfetti on Team Canada, albeit as a 19 year old. I see Brandon Tanev in him. A guy who was very successful here with Adam Lowry as his centre. Maybe a bit more scoring. With Barron being slowed this year, and maybe looking a little slow too in the 3LW spot, that's a great target for me, because you can still keep Barron as depth at forward, whether it be on the Moose or on the Jets, but the battle is a little more fierce. And honestly if the Jets lost Connor or Perfetti, knock on wood, we don't have a replacement for them in the lineup. The guys like Barron, Maenalanen, AJF are all more suited for checking line roles.

 

[surixon]

I think you are putting the bar a little low here Sur. I mean for comparison Greig scored at the same rate as Perfetti on Team Canada, albeit as a 19 year old. I see Brandon Tanev in him. A guy who was very successful here with Adam Lowry as his centre. Maybe a bit more scoring. With Barron being slowed this year, and maybe looking a little slow too in the 3LW spot, that's a great target for me, because you can still keep Barron as depth at forward, whether it be on the Moose or on the Jets, but the battle is a little more fierce. And honestly if the Jets lost Connor or Perfetti, knock on wood, we don't have a replacement for them in the lineup. The guys like Barron, Maenalanen, AJF are all more suited for checking line roles.

Team Canada stats don't do much for me, especially a weakened summer tournament with most NHL teams holding out their best prospects.

I don't mind the kid but imo he has a relatively low ceiling and due to his less then average size will have some difficulty translating his grit. I certainly don't give up a potential 2/3 dmen for a potential third liner.

 

[voyageur]

Team Canada stats don't do much for me, especially a weakened summer tournament with most NHL teams holding out their best prospects.

I don't mind the kid but imo he has a relatively low ceiling and due to his less then average size will have some difficulty translating his grit. I certainly don't give up a potential 2/3 dmen for a potential third liner.

When Bowness comes out and says "can we win with this guy?" I think there is concern that he may never achieve his 2/3 potential. Can he be a PP guy? I think that's a guarantee. While a checking line player isn't a sexy acquisition, Lowry's line is a catalyst on this team. That's 15 minutes a game, and for me Greig is a significant improvement on Barron, in terms of the energy he will bring. Can he be a borderline top 6 player? Absolutely, I think. Tanev was one of those here too, if we remember he would get promoted to spark lines, and has matured into a .5 PPG player. It remains to be seen whether Heinola will be a .5 PPG player, there's some optimism there, if he gets PP time, but he's not going to get it here, without injury, and none of the players he looks to displace are going anywhere anytime soon. Even Capobianco might be ahead of him in this respect. And Heinola's defense still seems to negate his offensive production, 5 on 5. Then you take the fact that 5th round pick Chisholm is probably in the exact same spot as Heinola, and the difference between them is marginal at this time, and Chisholm needs a way to get up the lineup, or cast out by next year.

For me this is addressing 2 organizational needs. The Sens need a better LD than Brannstrom. They have Ville's countryman Thomson, a RD drafted one spot ahead of him, waiting in the wings too, so that would make it a pretty good fit. The Jets don't have forward scoring depth. It's a development year for most of their young players. Term wise you get more out of the deal, and that's always something to look at, for an organization like ours.

I see this as being one of the better deals out there if teams are making pitches on Heinola. We'll just have to disagree I guess.