Trade, FA and Rumours 2022/23

[BigZ65]

A few comments about our D and potential trades

Pionk is our 1RD at the moment and is having a bounce-back year. Since the Trouba trade keeps coming up-Trouba is a 2RD for NYR, playing fewer minutes per game than Pionk and taking up a pile of cap. As for the other piece in the Trouba trade, only 2 defensemen from Heinola's draft year have yet made an impact in the NHL, so there is plenty of opportunity for him to fulfill his potential. The Jets scouting department were well aware of Pionk's potential and the value of a first rounder when they made that trade. So, I don't know why anyone would think we would trade PLD for a known mediocre return.

DeMelo is worth every penny he is being paid and makes the rookies around him better, so it makes no sense to trade him.

Schmidt costing us $6M in AAV for a third pair role and that makes him expendable

Dillon has made himself nonexpendable this season and is a great compliment for a young PMD

That leaves Stanley, Samberg and Heinola. Stanley and Samberg have similar ceilings, but Stanley is probably worth more on the market. Heinola has a much higher offensive ceiling than either, but still could fizzle out.

My choices for trade are Stanley, followed by Schmidt, as both are over-valued and easily replaceable.

I disagree on your assessment of Stanley and Samberg having similar ceilings.

The team is noticeably better with Samberg out there. I don't see Stanley's ceiling as even being where Samberg is now, let alone 2-3 years down the road. The ceilings are different because Samberg has far better puck skills and skating. Samberg has far better situational awareness IMO. If Stanley sees the puck on his side his complete instinct is to pinch but he doesn't have the skill for it which ends up causing defensive issues. The physical piece, maybe similar, but in the long run a guy who can't skate really can't handle any role above 3rd pairing 5 on 5. I think Stanley is settling in at that level and I hope the Jets realize it and don't do something stupid to keep him around.

I don't believe Stanley has much trade value. I'd be surprised if we got more than a 5th round pick for him, more likely another "draft bust" type NHL-AHL tweener guy.

 

[snowkiddin]

No one is suggesting trading him now, it would be this summer. So we have him for one more playoff push no matter what, so thats a moot point.

Next season is the question, PLD will be going into his final year of team control, this summer is exactly the same time when Trouba was traded, one year left of team control. So we would potentially lose him for one playoff run.

Jets won't let him walk for free, especially being this close to a possible rebuild ourselves with PLD, Mark, Blake, Helle, etc contracts all ending shortly.

So assuming he wont extend, he will be traded this summer or next season around the TDL......the only question becomes is what is the return. TDL return is likely slightly more then a summer trade return, albeit more risk you get nothing bc no trade finalized at the TDL. These type of situations the return is often a decent prospect (not a A level prospect) and a mid to late 1st rd pick. Dvorak is certainly worth a late 1st rd pick and the prospects I listed are all decent B level prospects. I don't care if PLD is traded for Dvorak+ or not, I'm just seeing the same posts as I seen during the Trouba trade........Jets fans overvaluing the return and then will be pissed when the return doesn't meet what they expected it should be. Personally, just like the Trouba trade I'm tempering my expectations on what the return will be and I would caution others to also.........I hope I'm wrong, but I wasn't with Trouba so.......I expect any PLD return will be less than what many here want/expected.

If Dvorak is a good 3C with two years of team control, I don’t know if I see him being worth a late 1st. Maybe depending on the market, but i feel teams that are in the market for him are likely contenders and they’d be more likely to spend a 1st on a top 6 rental. If Dubois wants to go to Montreal, that’s fine, but the market should be more open than just the Habs if we’re trading him next season as a one year rental.

A 1st plus a B prospect is the ask for PLD next summer/deadline. I don’t think that’s unreasonable. If Jets fans are asking for more, then I’d say they’re being unrealistic, but I expect the value to be a 1st plus a B prospect, and I guess just don’t value Dvorak the same as you because I don’t want him taking the place of a 1st round pick in the scenario PLD is traded.

 

[LowLefty]

If Dvorak is a good 3C with two years of team control, I don’t know if I see him being worth a late 1st. Maybe depending on the market, but i feel teams that are in the market for him are likely contenders and they’d be more likely to spend a 1st on a top 6 rental. If Dubois wants to go to Montreal, that’s fine, but the market should be more open than just the Habs if we’re trading him next season as a one year rental.

A 1st plus a B prospect is the ask for PLD next summer/deadline. I don’t think that’s unreasonable. If Jets fans are asking for more, then I’d say they’re being unrealistic, but I expect the value to be a 1st plus a B prospect, and I guess just don’t value Dvorak the same as you because I don’t want him taking the place of a 1st round pick in the scenario PLD is traded.

If he's going, I'd agree with how you've spelled it out - he's worth a 1st + as a rental -
I don't want this going to the wire with Montreal waiting in the wings - I can see that being a problem if they decide they have the Jets over a barrel. Montreal could very well just wait this out until PLD is free from who every he is playing for - I don't have much faith in him signing with anyone other than the Habs (unless they try to low ball him and I can't see that happening).

I have no interest in Dvorak

 

[Jet]

Not necessarily a reply to you directly but on the analytics discussion. This is from the Athletic's 16 Stats article re: the Jets:

Is the team better offensively? No, they’re earning the same amount of chances and still struggling to score at five-on-five.

Is the team better defensively? No, they’re allowing 0.1 more expected goals against per 60 compared to last season.

Is the team’s power play improved? No, they’re scoring one fewer goal-per-60 and generating 1.3 fewer expected goals-per-60. To their credit, they make up for that with a slightly improved penalty kill giving up 0.8 fewer expected goals against per 60.

Is Connor Hellebuyck just playing out of his mind again? Yes, he has a .938 save percentage and has saved 12.4 goals above expected in just 10 games.

Just reinforcing the real issues with the stats that article references.

Yes, especially early, the Jets had spells where they fell back to old habits and Hellebuyck won us some games. However, it is impossible to ignore the significant improvement in practically every area of play with this team.

If these stats aren't demonstrating that, then they are either not measuring the right things, or they are not measuring things accurately.

 

[10Ducky10]

PLD, Stanley and our 2023 1st rounder for DeBrincat, Batherson and their 2024 1st rounder.

 

[Hunter368]

PLD, Stanley and our 2023 1st rounder for DeBrincat, Batherson and their 2024 1st rounder.

Sens 1st >> Jets 1st

Stanley/PLD vs DeBrincat/Batherson

PLD 1 year control Vs DeBrincat UFA

Stanley << Batherson

Not sure Sens consider that offer, but would be funny as hell seeing PLD sign with the Sens long term and not the Habs

 

[surixon]

8 Games under Arniel 42.29% Xgf. 4 Games under Bowness 55.16% Xgf according to a random twitter person

Arneil's numbers are really hurt by that second Vegas game. That 42% isn't all that fair a representation of the way the team played for him. They definite,y have been better under Bones though.

 

[surixon]

Just reinforcing the real issues with the stats that article references.

Yes, especially early, the Jets had spells where they fell back to old habits and Hellebuyck won us some games. However, it is impossible to ignore the significant improvement in practically every area of play with this team.

If these stats aren't demonstrating that, then they are either not measuring the right things, or they are not measuring things accurately.

Yeah it comes down to the Jets as a team being inordinately punished for the Vegas game on the last road trip.

That game contributed 17% of the teams total XGA but the game as an event is only worth roughly 8% of the total points available to date. That game is skewing everything about the team so far from individual players to the team as a whole. I would expect any statistician worth their salt to properly smooth their data when doing an analysis. You take that outlier out and all of a sudden the numbers accross the board look good.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Sens 1st >> Jets 1st

Stanley/PLD vs DeBrincat/Batherson

PLD 1 year control Vs DeBrincat UFA

Stanley << Batherson

Not sure Sens consider that offer, but would be funny as hell seeing PLD sign with the Sens long term and not the Habs

2023 pick >>>> 2024

 

[JetsFan815]

Just reinforcing the real issues with the stats that article references.

Yes, especially early, the Jets had spells where they fell back to old habits and Hellebuyck won us some games. However, it is impossible to ignore the significant improvement in practically every area of play with this team.

If these stats aren't demonstrating that, then they are either not measuring the right things, or they are not measuring things accurately.

No issue with stats here but it's a national reporter who doesn't have time to follow games of each one of the 32 teams making a general opinion based on stats. People here who both watch the games and follow the stats are in a better position to talk about it.

At this stage of the season I'd put more weight on Corsi rather than xG as with a smaller sample of games Corsi has more events to look at. The Jets corsi is ~49-50% which seems pretty a pretty fair indicator of how the team has played so far.

 

[Hunter368]

2023 pick >>>> 2024

Missed that, picks would be closer in value then I first thought

 

[EpicGingy]

PLD, Stanley and our 2023 1st rounder for DeBrincat, Batherson and their 2024 1st rounder.

Good grief that's absolutely terrible for Ottawa.

 

[nobody imp0rtant]

Ah yes the fun with aggregate numbers so early in the season when the sample size is not statically significant.

First two games the Jets saw off the expected goals and come out with 1 win and one loss.

They then steal a win against Colorado in which they get crushed in expected goals.

They then get crushed in expected goals and amd lose to Vegas

They slightly get beat by TO in that metric and lose to the Leafs.

They won the expected goal battle and beat the Blues.

They get crushed by the Kings and Helle steals the game.

We crush the Coyotes and win the game

They get crushed by the Knights and lose the game.

We crush each of our last three games and win each game.

Really Helle has only stolen us 2 of our 8 wins. We have been full marks for the other wins.

So the Athletic jumping in on aggregate values to talk about a team this early in the year isn't adding much value given this team has won their matchups more games then its lost their matchups.

So, I have to ask...

Why is The Athletic worth paying for?

 

[Jet]

Yeah it comes down to the Jets as a team being inordinately punished for the Vegas game on the last road trip.

That game contributed 17% of the teams total XGA but the game as an event is only worth roughly 8% of the total points available to date. That game is skewing everything about the team so far from individual players to the team as a whole. I would expect any statistician worth their salt to properly smooth their data when doing an analysis. You take that outlier out and all of a sudden the numbers accross the board look good.

I would even say that last game data showing that Samberg was the best defenseman was extremely flawed.

 

[DeepFrickinValue]

I disagree on your assessment of Stanley and Samberg having similar ceilings.

The team is noticeably better with Samberg out there. I don't see Stanley's ceiling as even being where Samberg is now, let alone 2-3 years down the road. The ceilings are different because Samberg has far better puck skills and skating. Samberg has far better situational awareness IMO. If Stanley sees the puck on his side his complete instinct is to pinch but he doesn't have the skill for it which ends up causing defensive issues. The physical piece, maybe similar, but in the long run a guy who can't skate really can't handle any role above 3rd pairing 5 on 5. I think Stanley is settling in at that level and I hope the Jets realize it and don't do something stupid to keep him around.

I don't believe Stanley has much trade value. I'd be surprised if we got more than a 5th round pick for him, more likely another "draft bust" type NHL-AHL tweener guy.

Late starter. He will pick it up.

 

[tbcwpg]

Imo it's not a matter of watching games but understanding basic statistical concepts of sample size and outliers.

The Jets aggregate results are significantly skewed by one game, the second Vegas game.

The Jets total deficit in XGF to date is -3.42. They were a -3.57 in that Vegas game. So essentially the difference between the Jets being a 50% XGF team and the poor team Dom seems to think they are is one result.

I'd like to say I'd expect more in terms of an analysis from Dom but this is just par for the course with him.

When I say I don't think he watches the games it's more of not understanding how each game has been played. Yes, Hellebuyck has been unreal to start the season, but I wouldn't say he's stolen games, maybe LA but that was just as much Quick being bad as Hellebuyck being good.

I think Dom is seeing the season stats and sees Hellebuyck's GSAA and sv% and says it's down to him - if he watched game to game he'd see games like STL, ARI, NYR, DAL, CHI and see that the team is actually playing well - that LA and Vegas double header really tanked the Jets overall stats in a small sample size.

 

[snowkiddin]

Dom don’t exactly like the Jets, not surprised to see him behaving as such

 

[surixon]

When I say I don't think he watches the games it's more of not understanding how each game has been played. Yes, Hellebuyck has been unreal to start the season, but I wouldn't say he's stolen games, maybe LA but that was just as much Quick being bad as Hellebuyck being good.

I think Dom is seeing the season stats and sees Hellebuyck's GSAA and sv% and says it's down to him - if he watched game to game he'd see games like STL, ARI, NYR, DAL, CHI and see that the team is actually playing well - that LA and Vegas double header really tanked the Jets overall stats in a small sample size.

I agree with this as well. I was just saying as a numbers guy he could have dived into the numbers more instead of just taking the aggregate and making a generalized statement. A 10 minute more in depth look would have told him what watching the games would have that the Jets were full marks for most of their wins and weren't reliant on Helle stealing games. As a stats guy he should have seen the outlier game and taken that into account. To me it was a very lazy analysis which to me is all he ever puts out anyways.

 

[voyageur]

If he's going, I'd agree with how you've spelled it out - he's worth a 1st + as a rental -
I don't want this going to the wire with Montreal waiting in the wings - I can see that being a problem if they decide they have the Jets over a barrel. Montreal could very well just wait this out until PLD is free from who every he is playing for - I don't have much faith in him signing with anyone other than the Habs (unless they try to low ball him and I can't see that happening).

I have no interest in Dvorak

I don't think Montreal has any intention of trading him. He's the replacement for Danault. 3rd line centre. Maybe 2nd line centre right now, depends on how the ice time is split with Monahan.

If Montreal is trying to acquire Dubois likely one of the 2 1sts they have would be on the table, depending on who ends up better between them and Florida. And a prospect, like Kidney. Don't know what else. If Chevy could land Justin Barron that's not bad, but that's reaching.

Because Montreal to trade for Dubois are going to have to believe that are in a year of contention, and other than Dubois, I think they need a clear top 2 d-man to legitimize any chance of that. As of today Klingberg, Dumba and Severson are potential UFAs this offseason, as an upgrade. Otherwise there's no reason to move assets on their part, when they can wait it out. Maybe the Rangers could sneak in, but pretty sure Brisson and Dubois intend on going to Montreal.

For the Jets maybe this becomes an own rental situation if you don't get an offer you like. Jets are contending this year. What's to say they can't next year. The Scheifele situation is equally murky, but if you got an offer like Kasper from Yzerman, who himself has Larkin as a UFA this year, that's something to think about. Another blue chip prospect to add to Lucius, Mc Groarty and Lambert, and maybe even the 2 Russians, goes a long way in keeping the team growing. I think the Jets definitely are going to want an established #1 centre for at least next year, before they transition someone else into that role. If the Jets sign either of their top 2 centres, I think that increases the chances of re-signing one of their top wingers too down the road.

 

[mondo3]

Perhaps Ottawa sees Stanley as Chara light

 

[voyageur]

Perhaps Ottawa sees Stanley as Chara light

I am willing to bet that Stanley doesn't get traded this year. It's been a pretty good competition between he and Samberg so far. For the Jets having 3 guys in him, Samberg, and Dillon killing penalties, keeps Morrissey fresher throughout the year, even if Morrissey is a good PKer when called upon. He's also the only other physically intimidating defenseman the Jets have other than Dillon.

The Jets haven't brought up an 8th defenseman yet to replace him, so I suspect his roster spot isn't in any danger.

Whereas when Ehlers comes back, good chance one of Harkins or Toninato go back to the Moose.

 

[mondo3]

If the rumour is that Ottawa wants a Jet's D, then I'm guessing the Jet's would want a RW or C perhaps an upgrade on Appleton or Gustafsson. I wonder if Ottawa would consider moving Pinto or Batherson, and if so, which Jet's D would be fair value? Normally, I would guess that neither would be available, although with Ottawa being near the bottom of the standings, it's possible they might overpay to upgrade their D.

 

[voyageur]

If the rumour is that Ottawa wants a Jet's D, then I'm guessing the Jet's would want a RW or C perhaps an upgrade on Appleton or Gustafsson. I wonder if Ottawa would consider moving Pinto or Batherson, and if so, which Jet's D would be fair value? Normally, I would guess that neither would be available, although with Ottawa being near the bottom of the standings, it's possible they might overpay to upgrade their D.

My guess is that if Ottawa is scouting Winnipeg right now, it's Ville Heinola, because their defense isn't doing much. Sanderson-Hamonic have been good for the most part. Chabot has had a bit of a struggle, they brought Bernard-Docker up to help him, with Zub out. Zaitsev got waived, and I'm sure he's on the way out, or going to be demoted. Brannstrom is probably still disappointing the Sens management, and may never live up to the expectations. I see real good opportunity for Ville Heinola over there, that doesn't exist here. For me any Heinola talks with Ottawa start with Ridley Greig, and then a replacement defenseman, Moose level. Maybe Jacob Larsson since he's been terrible for Belleville, but I don't think he's that bad. Maybe I'm wrong about that one. Greig could be one of those Tanev types who'd be a sparkplug for the checking line. And can play up the lineup.

 

[bumblebeeman]

PLD, Stanley and our 2023 1st rounder for DeBrincat, Batherson and their 2024 1st rounder.

I think PLD for 1 of Debrincat of Batherson would be good for the Jets. Scratch the 1st round picks and Stanley (who probably doesn't have much value)

 

[DRW204]

PLD, Stanley and our 2023 1st rounder for DeBrincat, Batherson and their 2024 1st rounder.

This is so easily one sided for the Jets. Also if PLD doesn't want to resign with us, a team much closer to PO contention, what are the chances for him in Ottawa?