Trade, FA and Rumours 2022/23

[Mortimer Snerd]

If you take away the Jets worst game they're about 2.64 xga/60 as a team. That'd be around middle of the pack but obviously doesn't exlcude all other teams worst games too.

Nevertheless I think the Jets have shown improvements in defense via better transition game from def to offense as of late. I don't think they're really better at defending, just better at defending less.

If you take away the worst game you should also take away the best. And then do the same for every other team. Or - you could just use a more suitable statistic. Raw Corsi is still good. It is best with larger samples also but is probably meaningful with 10+ games.

 

[Jet]

If you take away the worst game you should also take away the best. And then do the same for every other team. Or - you could just use a more suitable statistic. Raw Corsi is still good. It is best with larger samples also but is probably meaningful with 10+ games.

My concern is what events is corsi intended to measure and how is that data gathered?

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I don't think Ottawa would do this move right now. But, when healthy, with Norris and Stutzle as their top-6 Cs, I'd move one of our young LD(+?) for Pinto, if PLD is still not signing.

I'd move one of our young D for Pinto whether PLD is extending or not. Take it and run.

 

[KingBogo]

I'm not sure Greig is that much different then Gus and we already have Gus. I wouldn't be trading Ville for him myself.

I remember reading something about Grieg along the lines if there is a scrum he is the first to join in and if there isn’t a scrum he starts one. Not a big guy but a guy who gets is nose dirty.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

I'm not sure Greig is that much different then Gus and we already have Gus. I wouldn't be trading Ville for him myself.

I think he has a lot more offensive potential than Gus, but even so, there is nothing wrong with having another.

And a meh prospect and a mid-round pick are not good enough.

Never said they were.

 

[snowkiddin]

I think he has a lot more offensive potential than Gus, but even so, there is nothing wrong with having another.



Never said they were.

You did not, but there is someone on here who is arguing they are. I disagree with said person.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

My concern is what events is corsi intended to measure and how is that data gathered?

The events it measures? I'm sure you know it is shot attempts. There is some sloppiness in the way these stats are gathered, but that is where a larger sample comes in. The homer biases get smoothed over, etc. I don't know that 10 games is large enough. That is just a seat of the pants guesstimate. That would be something in the neighbourhood of 500-600 shot attempts.

There is a problem that I never see discussed here with the stats that need very large datasets to become meaningful. If it takes 3-4 seasons worth of data to accurately paint a picture, whether it be of a team or an individual player, the team or player is not the same at the end of that time as at the beginning. You might have tracked a player through the entirety of his peak years and now he is in the post peak decline. That doesn't matter if all tou are trying to do is describe him. But if you are trying to predict, you are often going to miss the mark.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You did not, but there is someone on here who is arguing they are. I disagree with said person.

Well he is arguing for some prospects who he thinks are better than you think they are. They were not drafted very high but have scored well post draft. I don't know them beyond looking up those stats so I can't say one way or another. It is possible that 1 or 2 of them is good enough to tip the scales, if you can identify which ones. If not, then we would need to look for a better add.

But I think his real point is simply that we may not get full value for PLD, even if we get full rental value for him when the time comes. Late 1st + B prospect + bottom half of the depth chart roster player.

 

[surixon]

When Bowness comes out and says "can we win with this guy?" I think there is concern that he may never achieve his 2/3 potential. Can he be a PP guy? I think that's a guarantee. While a checking line player isn't a sexy acquisition, Lowry's line is a catalyst on this team. That's 15 minutes a game, and for me Greig is a significant improvement on Barron, in terms of the energy he will bring. Can he be a borderline top 6 player? Absolutely, I think. Tanev was one of those here too, if we remember he would get promoted to spark lines, and has matured into a .5 PPG player. It remains to be seen whether Heinola will be a .5 PPG player, there's some optimism there, if he gets PP time, but he's not going to get it here, without injury, and none of the players he looks to displace are going anywhere anytime soon. Even Capobianco might be ahead of him in this respect. And Heinola's defense still seems to negate his offensive production, 5 on 5. Then you take the fact that 5th round pick Chisholm is probably in the exact same spot as Heinola, and the difference between them is marginal at this time, and Chisholm needs a way to get up the lineup, or cast out by next year.

For me this is addressing 2 organizational needs. The Sens need a better LD than Brannstrom. They have Ville's countryman Thomson, a RD drafted one spot ahead of him, waiting in the wings too, so that would make it a pretty good fit. The Jets don't have forward scoring depth. It's a development year for most of their young players. Term wise you get more out of the deal, and that's always something to look at, for an organization like ours.

I see this as being one of the better deals out there if teams are making pitches on Heinola. We'll just have to disagree I guess.

I mean teams do win with Heinola types all the time in this league. Also teams have won a lot with Heinola anchoring their d cores. See the success of the Moose last year for instance and those Finish teams he anchored.

The kid needs a chance to show he can translate and be a big part of a successful NHL team.

Sure you need good depth players but good third liners are much easier to find and acquire then upper end dmen. Case in point four of the players we have used in those roles this year were acquired for a song. Appelton we got back for a mid round pick, Barron was a throw in on a deadline deal, the other two were acquired for a league minimum FA signing and as a waiver wire pickup. Why would we give up a talented player with a top pairing ceiling for a third line player when the org can go out and get them for mid round picks or for free. There are always dozens of those guys available every summer.

 

[ello]

When Bowness comes out and says "can we win with this guy?" I think there is concern that he may never achieve his 2/3 potential. Can he be a PP guy? I think that's a guarantee. While a checking line player isn't a sexy acquisition, Lowry's line is a catalyst on this team. That's 15 minutes a game, and for me Greig is a significant improvement on Barron, in terms of the energy he will bring. Can he be a borderline top 6 player? Absolutely, I think. Tanev was one of those here too, if we remember he would get promoted to spark lines, and has matured into a .5 PPG player. It remains to be seen whether Heinola will be a .5 PPG player, there's some optimism there, if he gets PP time, but he's not going to get it here, without injury, and none of the players he looks to displace are going anywhere anytime soon. Even Capobianco might be ahead of him in this respect. And Heinola's defense still seems to negate his offensive production, 5 on 5. Then you take the fact that 5th round pick Chisholm is probably in the exact same spot as Heinola, and the difference between them is marginal at this time, and Chisholm needs a way to get up the lineup, or cast out by next year.

For me this is addressing 2 organizational needs. The Sens need a better LD than Brannstrom. They have Ville's countryman Thomson, a RD drafted one spot ahead of him, waiting in the wings too, so that would make it a pretty good fit. The Jets don't have forward scoring depth. It's a development year for most of their young players. Term wise you get more out of the deal, and that's always something to look at, for an organization like ours.

I see this as being one of the better deals out there if teams are making pitches on Heinola. We'll just have to disagree I guess.

I think we’re overrating Heinola a bit here and underrating Greig, as fans tend to do with their own prospects. Kinda funny how we describe Greig by his realistic projection (3rd line scoring winger with grit) but we describe Heinola with his ceiling (offensive 2/3 dman). Greig certainly had top 6 upside the same way Heinola has top 4 upside and I think it’d actually be a reasonable swap

 

[10Ducky10]

Considering what we got for Copp at the trade deadline these proposals for Pierre Luc Dubois make my stomach turn.

 

[KingBogo]

I think we’re overrating Heinola a bit here and underrating Greig, as fans tend to do with their own prospects. Kinda funny how we describe Greig by his realistic projection (3rd line scoring winger with grit) but we describe Heinola with his ceiling (offensive 2/3 dman). Greig certainly had top 6 upside the same way Heinola has top 4 upside and I think it’d actually be a reasonable swap

Agreed in the unbiased real world they are on the same tier of prospects. I’d still favour Heinola as he plays a more important position. I wouldn’t hate the trade but I’d be real worried on what Heinola might become.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Missed that, picks would be closer in value then I first thought

Isn’t the 2023 draft much stronger.

 

[Flair Hay]

Considering what we got for Copp at the trade deadline these proposals for Pierre Luc Dubois make my stomach turn.

Dont sweat it, we can just wait until the trade deadline before he is FA and do just fine. Just like Copp.

 

[leer2006]

I think we’re overrating Heinola a bit here and underrating Greig, as fans tend to do with their own prospects. Kinda funny how we describe Greig by his realistic projection (3rd line scoring winger with grit) but we describe Heinola with his ceiling (offensive 2/3 dman). Greig certainly had top 6 upside the same way Heinola has top 4 upside and I think it’d actually be a reasonable swap

Except Dmen come at a premium. Swapping a Dman with potential for a forward with potential should require more on the forward side as forwards are much easier to acquire.

 

[trebendan]

Dubois and Heinola to Carolina for Svechnikov.

 

[Upperdeckjet]

When Bowness made the comment "can we win with this guy", I didn't see it as a slight against Heinola at all. I saw it as a reference to his skill set, his size and finding a fit for his role on the Jets D as currently constructed.

I never saw the competition as Stanley, Samberg, Heinola for a Left D spot. It was always going to be Stanley, Samberg or Capobianco (imo). So now what to do with him. He's rotting on the vine, time to trade him.

 

[DRW204]

Dubois and Heinola to Carolina for Svechnikov.

I'm all for it. But Carolina probably passes quite easily.

 

[Jet]

When Bowness made the comment "can we win with this guy", I didn't see it as a slight against Heinola at all. I saw it as a reference to his skill set, his size and finding a fit for his role on the Jets D as currently constructed.

I never saw the competition as Stanley, Samberg, Heinola for a Left D spot. It was always going to be Stanley, Samberg or Capobianco (imo). So now what to do with him. He's rotting on the vine, time to trade him.

Ahhh the rotting on the vine meme. A b+ prospect that's currently tracking similarly to his draft peers is 'rotting'.

Byram at 4 and Seider at 6 are the only D in his draft class at D that are in the NHL.

8 Broberg, 11 Soderstrom, 14 York,19 Thomson all picked ahead and in the AHL. Bjornfot taken 2 spots later in the AHL.

If you look at the situation objectively, Heinola is tracking fine. Which defensemen in the above the list do you think Heinola is markedly better than?

There's no vine rotting.

 

[Upperdeckjet]

Ahhh the rotting on the vine meme. A b+ prospect that's currently tracking similarly to his draft peers is 'rotting'.

Byram at 4 and Seider at 6 are the only D in his draft class at D that are in the NHL.

8 Broberg, 11 Soderstrom, 14 York,19 Thomson all picked ahead and in the AHL. Bjornfot taken 2 spots later in the AHL.

If you look at the situation objectively, Heinola is tracking fine. Which defensemen in the above the list do you think Heinola is markedly better than?

There's no vine rotting.

It is certainly your prerogative to focus on a throw a way comment that had little to do with the overall point of my post. That was more of a reference that I believe he is ready for his shot in the NHL that I do not see forthcoming on the Jets.

It is not him rotting (ugly term) as much as his value to our organization.

 

[KingBogo]

It is certainly your prerogative to focus on a throw a way comment that had little to do with the overall point of my post. That was more of a reference that I believe he is ready for his shot in the NHL that I do not see forthcoming on the Jets.

It is not him rotting (ugly term) as much as his value to our organization.

I don't see Ville's value dropping. As @Jet mentioned his development curve and usage is pretty consistent with other D prospects drafted in his range. Most rankings of drafted NHL prospects has him somewhere in the 50-70 range, suggested a real good prospect that very likely will have an NHL career. But most teams are likely to have a couple prospects that ranked higher who they are working on developing. In comparison the 1 prospect we are developing in the NHL is Perfetti who is usually ranked in the top 10 as a can't miss prospect and likely future star.

I can understand Heinola wanting a bigger role, and there are likely teams out there where he can play at the NHL level, but for many teams he'd be right where he is with the Jets, playing big minutes for their minor league team getting his NHL games as an injury call up. In reality he is on a pretty typical NHL development curve.

 

[Jet]

It is certainly your prerogative to focus on a throw a way comment that had little to do with the overall point of my post. That was more of a reference that I believe he is ready for his shot in the NHL that I do not see forthcoming on the Jets.

It is not him rotting (ugly term) as much as his value to our organization.

I responded to your comment that he was rotting on the vine with facts that disprove that.

His value to the organization is exactly what it is. He's not playing for the Jets because the organization doesn't believe that he is ready, or they believe other players are a better fit right now.

His value is a calculation based on his performance relative to his draft position and whether that performance is expected.

I'd say his performance is indeed expected for 20 OA D in his D+3 year.

You're post really makes zero sense.

If they played him and he wasn't ready and struggled that is far more likely to affect his value around the league.

 

[surixon]

Ahhh the rotting on the vine meme. A b+ prospect that's currently tracking similarly to his draft peers is 'rotting'.

Byram at 4 and Seider at 6 are the only D in his draft class at D that are in the NHL.

8 Broberg, 11 Soderstrom, 14 York,19 Thomson all picked ahead and in the AHL. Bjornfot taken 2 spots later in the AHL.

If you look at the situation objectively, Heinola is tracking fine. Which defensemen in the above the list do you think Heinola is markedly better than?

There's no vine rotting.

Interesting note is that most of those dmen are a similar size as Ville as well and score at a similar level in the AHL.

 

[Atoyot]

I'm not sure Greig is that much different then Gus and we already have Gus. I wouldn't be trading Ville for him myself.

Different players. Greig is a buzzsaw with more skill. I like Gus a lot but I'd take Greig over him in a heartbeat.

 

[Gil Fisher]

Ahhh the rotting on the vine meme. A b+ prospect that's currently tracking similarly to his draft peers is 'rotting'.

Byram at 4 and Seider at 6 are the only D in his draft class at D that are in the NHL.

8 Broberg, 11 Soderstrom, 14 York,19 Thomson all picked ahead and in the AHL. Bjornfot taken 2 spots later in the AHL.

If you look at the situation objectively, Heinola is tracking fine. Which defensemen in the above the list do you think Heinola is markedly better than?

There's no vine rotting.

Are you a witch or a duck?