Trade, FA and Rumours 2022/23

[ennsjd07]

I know Schmidt has been a mess in his own end since… forever. This last game I saw him jumping in on the rush same as if not more than morrissey and he was doing the right things in the process. He’s like having a 4th forward out who is kinda familiar with defense. Maybe moving him makes way for Heinola or whomever, but also, I don’t know if (aside from 44) we have a better skater on D at the moment.
Maybe Pionk?

 

[snowkiddin]

The discussion was trading PLD this summer, so trading him this summer would be for one playoff run, not two. The rest of your post is certainly one POV that some posters will have, albeit the Jets took a different approach with Trouba so I expect they will do the same with PLD aka trade him this summer and many posters will complain about the return just like they did with Trouba. Time will tell

What I’m saying is, we have PLD for two playoff runs of our own minimum. If the team is serious about contending next year (PLD’s second playoff run here), I don’t know if they should be trading him for a return like that. Dvorak is significantly worse than PLD so that kinda kiboshes our own second run. I’d rather keep PLD if we intend to contend.

If we decide to head towards a rebuild next offseason, then sure, trade him. But then you can trade him to anyone in the league as a one year rental and likely still get a better return than a 3C with one additional year left, a meh prospect, and a mid-round pick. The asking price would be a 1st and a good, not great prospect. Especially if the Jets retain, you’ll be able to find someone who would take PLD for a year at that price, and I’d rather have that than a deal centred around Dvorak and two mediocre pieces.

 

[DRW204]

id rather take a 1st+ prospect than dvorak for PLD.

dvorak just screams meh player to me. easily replaceable via FA for probably cheaper.

 

[surixon]

not sure
i dont really look at HDCF/HDCA and try not use it since i do not understand it fully. from the little bit ive read are just more counting stats. not sure.
Scheifele/Perfetti have the same in Against, but Perfetti has higher in For, which makes sense when you look at xG as well. Perfetti is slightly higher in For vs Scheifele, but they are similar in Against. Again not sure how HDCF/HDCA is defined or scored, or the criteria.

the jets give up higher volume of shots-against when scheifele is on the ice vs perfetti. but the quality of attempts are rated to be higher when Perfetti is on the ice as opposed to scheifele. then consider their xGF/CF is basically same. that's why the CF% is different, but xGF% is the same. that's why scheifele sees to be getting caved in (higher volume shot attempts against).

just look at CF vs xGF it's the easiest to understand.

for your GF ratings

perfetti xGF is 2.61 and GF is 2.55....basically the same theyre scoring as expected

his xGA is 3.56 and GA is 2.55..... difference is Helle's elite goaltending.

i think we see this illustrated pretty succinctly every game as helle has been tremendous.

The point is I don't understand how they come up with their values. An XGA of 3.65 means nothing to me. How do they get that when it is contrary to every other metric. Perfetti is winning the scoring chances battle when he's on the ice, Scheifele is not. Is the difference in scoring chances so severe to knock him down to a low 40's.

Case in point the Avalanch game. Perfetti wins the corsi, Fenwick, shot rates handedly, he saws off the scoring chance battle but loses the HDCF battle and ends up with a 27% XGF but another game he wins that metric and slightly loses the other metrics and ends up with the same metric. I'm sorry but there is nothing consistient about it. If they don't show me the data they use and juat plop a umber down that doesn't mesh well then I'm going to be skeptical.

 

[Huffer]

If the Jets are trading a D IMO they are in the drivers seat.

It would be hard to see them trade a current D off the roster with the way the team has been playing. That being said, if a team like Ottawa is looking for a D right now, I can't see them looking for future help, they're looking for help right now. And if Ottawa is looking for help on the right, we're not exactly flush there unless they are fully confident that Heinola can play on the right. (Would be nice to still have Kovy in the PB, just saying).

Moving Schmidt's salary would be nice, but he also seems like a really good guy personality wise to have in the room. Demelo is also one I argued against moving in the past because IMO he plays above his cap hit. Pionk wasn't one I would have thought could be available, but he hasn't fit with many other pairs. Losing an actual right handed D man and then only having one wouldn't be ideal either.

Even if we move a young D, we had better end up with a good deal because at this present moment there are no issues with the status quo besides Heinola having to play on the Moose. And with D being an expensive piece to acquire, that should work out in our favor.

 

[surixon]

If the Jets are trading a D IMO they are in the drivers seat.

It would be hard to see them trade a current D off the roster with the way the team has been playing. That being said, if a team like Ottawa is looking for a D right now, I can't see them looking for future help, they're looking for help right now. And if Ottawa is looking for help on the right, we're not exactly flush there unless they are fully confident that Heinola can play on the right. (Would be nice to still have Kovy in the PB, just saying).

Moving Schmidt's salary would be nice, but he also seems like a really good guy personality wise to have in the room. Demelo is also one I argued against moving in the past because IMO he plays above his cap hit. Pionk wasn't one I would have thought could be available, but he hasn't fit with many other pairs. Losing an actual right handed D man and then only having one wouldn't be ideal either.

Even if we move a young D, we had better end up with a good deal because at this present moment there are no issues with the status quo besides Heinola having to play on the Moose. And with D being an expensive piece to acquire, that should work out in our favor.

If we are moving a RD and we can find a taker that will us a good forward then I move Pionk. He's solid but his role as a second pairing puck moving RD is being filled better via Schmidt and we know DeMelonworks with JoMo. Do we lose much of anything replacing Pionk on the third with Ville?

 

[DRW204]

The point is I don't understand how they come up with their values. An XGA of 3.65 means nothing to me. How do they get that when it is contrary to every other metric. Perfetti is winning the scoring chances battle when he's on the ice, Scheifele is not. Is the difference in scoring chances so severe to knock him down to a low 40's.

Case in point the Avalanch game. Perfetti wins the corsi, Fenwick, shot rates handedly, he saws off the scoring chance battle but loses the HDCF battle and ends up with a 27% XGF but another game he wins that metric and slightly loses the other metrics and ends up with the same metric. I'm sorry but there is nothing consistient about it. If they don't show me the data they use and juat plop a umber down that doesn't mesh well then I'm going to be skeptical.

just because you dont understand doesnt mean its broken, garbage etc. last i checked, every team uses and invests in some sort of analytics including expected-goals (heck most sports do), and it's used by individuals much more in demand in the industry than you or i. that's why i recommended reading up on how xG is calculated and it'd probably clear up everything. pretty sure money puck, evolvinghockey also gives a % of shots liklihood of going in as well which would basically show you how they get the xG score. you can look at it per game and tally it up for Perfetti if you do not understand it. it seems to me you're mixing up volume and quality stats. i dont know what HDCF / HDCA is, ask whoever uses that how it's defined and it's relation to Corsi or xGF or Goals.

also i think you transcribed the Avs game incorrectly. Perfetti was even in Corsi at 50%, 0.62 xGF vs 0.69 GA (48%), mild edge in the Avs favor. I dont know how HDCF is scored but it's 2 for 3 against, which would illustrate to the slight advantage for the Avs in xG as well (all at 5v5 hockey).

 

[Huffer]

If we are moving a RD and we can find a taker that will us a good forward then I move Pionk. He's solid but his role as a second pairing puck moving RD is being filled better via Schmidt and we know DeMelonworks with JoMo. Do we lose much of anything replacing Pionk on the third with Ville?

I didn't think I would look to move Pionk, but I could be ok with that depending on the return. I have a player in mind, but I know it would be shot down here as "too much".

 

[DRW204]

schmidt has a 10 team ntc, id think OTT is on there. schmidt has also been fine here. similarly dillon has been solid this year too. i dont think we're moving either of them

morrissey not being moved, pionk although id move him i dont think the org would.

i can see demelo being considered to move though, this is just on my feeling though. 6 team NTC played in OTT previously and from Ontario.

 

[scelaton]

A few comments about our D and potential trades

Pionk is our 1RD at the moment and is having a bounce-back year. Since the Trouba trade keeps coming up-Trouba is a 2RD for NYR, playing fewer minutes per game than Pionk and taking up a pile of cap. As for the other piece in the Trouba trade, only 2 defensemen from Heinola's draft year have yet made an impact in the NHL, so there is plenty of opportunity for him to fulfill his potential. The Jets scouting department were well aware of Pionk's potential and the value of a first rounder when they made that trade. So, I don't know why anyone would think we would trade PLD for a known mediocre return.

DeMelo is worth every penny he is being paid and makes the rookies around him better, so it makes no sense to trade him.

Schmidt costing us $6M in AAV for a third pair role and that makes him expendable

Dillon has made himself nonexpendable this season and is a great compliment for a young PMD

That leaves Stanley, Samberg and Heinola. Stanley and Samberg have similar ceilings, but Stanley is probably worth more on the market. Heinola has a much higher offensive ceiling than either, but still could fizzle out.

My choices for trade are Stanley, followed by Schmidt, as both are over-valued and easily replaceable.

 

[tbcwpg]

just because you dont understand doesnt mean its broken, garbage etc. last i checked, every team uses and invests in some sort of analytics including expected-goals (heck most sports do), and it's used by individuals much more in demand in the industry than you or i. that's why i recommended reading up on how xG is calculated and it'd probably clear up everything. pretty sure money puck, evolvinghockey also gives a % of shots liklihood of going in as well which would basically show you how they get the xG score. you can look at it per game and tally it up for Perfetti if you do not understand it. it seems to me you're mixing up volume and quality stats. i dont know what HDCF / HDCA is, ask whoever uses that how it's defined and it's relation to Corsi or xGF or Goals.

also i think you transcribed the Avs game incorrectly. Perfetti was even in Corsi at 50%, 0.62 xGF vs 0.69 GA (48%), mild edge in the Avs favor. I dont know how HDCF is scored but it's 2 for 3 against, which would illustrate to the slight advantage for the Avs in xG as well (all at 5v5 hockey).

Not necessarily a reply to you directly but on the analytics discussion. This is from the Athletic's 16 Stats article re: the Jets:

Is the team better offensively? No, they’re earning the same amount of chances and still struggling to score at five-on-five.

Is the team better defensively? No, they’re allowing 0.1 more expected goals against per 60 compared to last season.

Is the team’s power play improved? No, they’re scoring one fewer goal-per-60 and generating 1.3 fewer expected goals-per-60. To their credit, they make up for that with a slightly improved penalty kill giving up 0.8 fewer expected goals against per 60.

Is Connor Hellebuyck just playing out of his mind again? Yes, he has a .938 save percentage and has saved 12.4 goals above expected in just 10 games.

 

[jamiebez]

If it is Ottawa, and it is Heinola, then I would guess the possible return is one of Ridly Greig or Roby Jarventie. Both are 2020 picks making their pro debuts with Belleville in the AHL this year.

Having said that, don't see how that makes sense from the Sens side of things. They are definitely looking for an experienced RHD. Jacob Bernard-Docker played the last 2 games next to Chabot, and he's their top D prospect, so would make more sense to keep him there than to spend assets to get Heinola.

Don't see a fit at forward for us on the Sens either.... not a lot of value outside of their Top 6, who are pretty much untouchable for them.

 

[tbcwpg]

Don't necessarily agree that Tkachuk is better than Trouba or Dubois. That's another debate. He was coming of a great year though.

The rest I agree with.

I think the Tkachuk name is blinding you there, he's better than Dubois and Trouba and was the best player in that trade. Whether Florida should've done it is another matter but he's an excellent player.

 

[Joe Hallenback]

I think XGF is a bad stat based off 1 game. I think it has merit over a lot of games

 

[surixon]

just because you dont understand doesnt mean its broken, garbage etc. last i checked, every team uses and invests in some sort of analytics including expected-goals (heck most sports do), and it's used by individuals much more in demand in the industry than you or i. that's why i recommended reading up on how xG is calculated and it'd probably clear up everything. pretty sure money puck, evolvinghockey also gives a % of shots liklihood of going in as well which would basically show you how they get the xG score. you can look at it per game and tally it up for Perfetti if you do not understand it. it seems to me you're mixing up volume and quality stats. i dont know what HDCF / HDCA is, ask whoever uses that how it's defined and it's relation to Corsi or xGF or Goals.

also i think you transcribed the Avs game incorrectly. Perfetti was even in Corsi at 50%, 0.62 xGF vs 0.69 GA (48%), mild edge in the Avs favor. I dont know how HDCF is scored but it's 2 for 3 against, which would illustrate to the slight advantage for the Avs in xG as well (all at 5v5 hockey).

Anyhow I don't think we are going to convince each other on this. When something doesn't follow along with the trend then I flag it. Also in terms of volume Perfetti tends to do better in all the per minute stats then Scheifele does so not really sure volume explains anything here given he's aheas on the quality shot aspect as well.

 

[Hunter368]

What I’m saying is, we have PLD for two playoff runs of our own minimum. If the team is serious about contending next year (PLD’s second playoff run here), I don’t know if they should be trading him for a return like that. Dvorak is significantly worse than PLD so that kinda kiboshes our own second run. I’d rather keep PLD if we intend to contend.

If we decide to head towards a rebuild next offseason, then sure, trade him. But then you can trade him to anyone in the league as a one year rental and likely still get a better return than a 3C with one additional year left, a meh prospect, and a mid-round pick. The asking price would be a 1st and a good, not great prospect. Especially if the Jets retain, you’ll be able to find someone who would take PLD for a year at that price, and I’d rather have that than a deal centred around Dvorak and two mediocre pieces.

No one is suggesting trading him now, it would be this summer. So we have him for one more playoff push no matter what, so thats a moot point.

Next season is the question, PLD will be going into his final year of team control, this summer is exactly the same time when Trouba was traded, one year left of team control. So we would potentially lose him for one playoff run.

Jets won't let him walk for free, especially being this close to a possible rebuild ourselves with PLD, Mark, Blake, Helle, etc contracts all ending shortly.

So assuming he wont extend, he will be traded this summer or next season around the TDL......the only question becomes is what is the return. TDL return is likely slightly more then a summer trade return, albeit more risk you get nothing bc no trade finalized at the TDL. These type of situations the return is often a decent prospect (not a A level prospect) and a mid to late 1st rd pick. Dvorak is certainly worth a late 1st rd pick and the prospects I listed are all decent B level prospects. I don't care if PLD is traded for Dvorak+ or not, I'm just seeing the same posts as I seen during the Trouba trade........Jets fans overvaluing the return and then will be pissed when the return doesn't meet what they expected it should be. Personally, just like the Trouba trade I'm tempering my expectations on what the return will be and I would caution others to also.........I hope I'm wrong, but I wasn't with Trouba so.......I expect any PLD return will be less than what many here want/expected.

 

[DRW204]

Not necessarily a reply to you directly but on the analytics discussion. This is from the Athletic's 16 Stats article re: the Jets:

Is the team better offensively? No, they’re earning the same amount of chances and still struggling to score at five-on-five.

Is the team better defensively? No, they’re allowing 0.1 more expected goals against per 60 compared to last season.

Is the team’s power play improved? No, they’re scoring one fewer goal-per-60 and generating 1.3 fewer expected goals-per-60. To their credit, they make up for that with a slightly improved penalty kill giving up 0.8 fewer expected goals against per 60.

Is Connor Hellebuyck just playing out of his mind again? Yes, he has a .938 save percentage and has saved 12.4 goals above expected in just 10 games.

i think this is pretty accurate.

at all strengths
GF 38 on xGF of 38.
at 5v5
GF 21 on xGF of 25

connor probably has a lot to do with that as he has not been finishing. 0 Goals at 5v5.

we're the 3rd best team in SV% so id expect goaltending to be bailing us out a lot given the opportunities we given up (although that's tightened up over the last few games).

 

[surixon]

Not necessarily a reply to you directly but on the analytics discussion. This is from the Athletic's 16 Stats article re: the Jets:

Is the team better offensively? No, they’re earning the same amount of chances and still struggling to score at five-on-five.

Is the team better defensively? No, they’re allowing 0.1 more expected goals against per 60 compared to last season.

Is the team’s power play improved? No, they’re scoring one fewer goal-per-60 and generating 1.3 fewer expected goals-per-60. To their credit, they make up for that with a slightly improved penalty kill giving up 0.8 fewer expected goals against per 60.

Is Connor Hellebuyck just playing out of his mind again? Yes, he has a .938 save percentage and has saved 12.4 goals above expected in just 10 games.

Ah yes the fun with aggregate numbers so early in the season when the sample size is not statically significant.

First two games the Jets saw off the expected goals and come out with 1 win and one loss.

They then steal a win against Colorado in which they get crushed in expected goals.

They then get crushed in expected goals and amd lose to Vegas

They slightly get beat by TO in that metric and lose to the Leafs.

They won the expected goal battle and beat the Blues.

They get crushed by the Kings and Helle steals the game.

We crush the Coyotes and win the game

They get crushed by the Knights and lose the game.

We crush each of our last three games and win each game.

Really Helle has only stolen us 2 of our 8 wins. We have been full marks for the other wins.

So the Athletic jumping in on aggregate values to talk about a team this early in the year isn't adding much value given this team has won their matchups more games then its lost their matchups.

 

[tbcwpg]

Ah yes the fun with aggregate numbers so early in the season when the sample size is not statically significant.

First two games the Jets saw off the expected goals and come out with 1 win and one loss.

They then steal a win against Colorado in which they get crushed in expected goals.

They then get crushed in expected goals and amd lose to Vegas

They slightly get beat by TO in that metric and lose to the Leafs.

They won the expected goal battle and beat the Blues.

They get crushed by the Kings and Helle steals the game.

We crush the Coyotes and win the game

They get crushed by the Knights and lose the game.

We crush each of our last three games and win each game.

Really Helle has only stolen us 2 of our 8 wins. We have been full marks for the other wins.

So the Athletic jumping in on aggregate values to talk about a team this early in the year isn't adding much value given this team has won their matchups more games then its lost their matchups.

I agree, and Murat does as well. I don't think Dom watches much of the Jets.

 

[Romang67]

It's much too early to look at xGF% as any type of future indicator. Especially when we played the vast majority of the season without our new head coach, while trying to implement new systems.

 

[gojetsgo]

8 Games under Arniel 42.29% Xgf. 4 Games under Bowness 55.16% Xgf according to a random twitter person

 

[DRW204]

8 Games under Arniel 42.29% Xgf. 4 Games under Bowness 55.16% Xgf according to a random twitter person

I've noticed as of late the puck movement out of our end has been far better. I found that early on whenever the team was running around in the dzone, it was b/c of failed exits. That imo had been improved as of late.

 

[Hobble]

The Golden Showers are ruthless.

I don’t think they anticipated both Thompson and Hill playing lights out.

 

[Upperdeckjet]

I've noticed as of late the puck movement out of our end has been far better. I found that early on whenever the team was running around in the dzone, it was b/c of failed exits. That imo had been improved as of late.

Also an opportunity for Arniel to watch and learn, cause there is a decent chance he will be our next coach down the road.

 

[surixon]

I agree, and Murat does as well. I don't think Dom watches much of the Jets.

Imo it's not a matter of watching games but understanding basic statistical concepts of sample size and outliers.

The Jets aggregate results are significantly skewed by one game, the second Vegas game.

The Jets total deficit in XGF to date is -3.42. They were a -3.57 in that Vegas game. So essentially the difference between the Jets being a 50% XGF team and the poor team Dom seems to think they are is one result.

I'd like to say I'd expect more in terms of an analysis from Dom but this is just par for the course with him.