Trade, FA and Rumours 2022/23

[bumblebeeman]

Without Helly and our top 2 centers make no mistake we will bottom out. The tricky part will then be convincing Ehlers and Connor to stay as their contracts come due the year after and the year after that. I’m guessing they’d prefer not to play out their primes in a full on rebuild.

Ya I agree. Trading those guys would get mostly futures, which would probably end up being late 1st round picks and maybe some young NHLers, but probably not returning any starting goalies or 1Cs

 

[LowLefty]

Without Helly and our top 2 centers make no mistake we will bottom out. The tricky part will then be convincing Ehlers and Connor to stay as their contracts come due the year after and the year after that. I’m guessing they’d prefer not to play out their primes in a full on rebuild.

I'd assume there will be a lot of discussion around this point -
A lot of contracts coming due and it's likely they would struggle signing everyone - and do they want to?
No one wants a full rebuild but we also don't want to be hamstrung with UFA contracts that contradict this orgs draft / develop model.
How do you see this playing out?

 

[WaveRaven]

If the team continues to gel and take shape as a legit playoff team, they have to add to the roster, right? Deal with contracts in the summer.

Please god no. Don't waste picks or prospects.

 

[WaveRaven]

I'd assume there will be a lot of discussion around this point -
A lot of contracts coming due and it's likely they would struggle signing everyone - and do they want to?
No one wants a full rebuild but we also don't want to be hamstrung with UFA contracts that contradict this orgs draft / develop model.
How do you see this playing out?

I see it playing out real slow. Its a little scary actually. They don't seem to have the balls to make moves when they should and wait and wait.

I use the Trouba trade as an example. They waited too long the return was medicore at best. A number 4 or 5 dman and a AHL dman.

Kane is another example. They should have moved him after his 40 goal season. Not wait and wait.

Logic dictates that moving players earlier has more value .

This team needs to be in constant transition from players that need to be moved fir whatever reason.

 

[ERYX]

If the team continues to gel and take shape as a legit playoff team, they have to add to the roster, right? Deal with contracts in the summer.

Please god no. Don't waste picks or prospects.

I agree with @WaveRaven especially with the apparent depth of the 2023 draft, and the number of upcoming UFAs for us (seems unlikely we could sign ALL of them), I do not want to give up any picks or prospects. Only way I'd be okay with a rental is if we could somehow trade someone like Schmidt or Dillon for them (which I doubt we could).

 

[BoneDocUK]

I see it playing out real slow. Its a little scary actually. They don't seem to have the balls to make moves when they should and wait and wait.

I use the Trouba trade as an example. They waited too long the return was medicore at best. A number 4 or 5 dman and a AHL dman.

Kane is another example. They should have moved him after his 40 goal season. Not wait and wait.

Logic dictates that moving players earlier has more value .

This team needs to be in constant transition from players that need to be moved fir whatever reason.

I'd just add to this example that of Jack Roslovic, mentioned in Murat's latest article, who was a far better trade bait prospect at least a year or two before he became the extra piece in the PLD/ Laine trade. In the intervening period he moved up and around the lineup and achieved little, except to lose value.

He definitely wins his share of the trades he actually makes, but waiting out the league doesn't always result in the best value back, and sometimes as with keeping Stats for general morale it likely costs an asset -- and every asset is important to a team like the Jets.

Chevy hates to lose his guys, even when losing them makes sense for the short, medium and especially long terms. See also Stanley, Logan.

 

[Heldig]

Please god no. Don't waste picks or prospects.

I in no way want to trade the 1st.

Surely Chevy can add a piece without trading a 1st, Lucious, Lambert or McGroarty?

Stanley, Heinola, Harkins, maybe on of the Russians (Chibrikov or Rashevsky - though I really hope Chevy can get Rashevsky to Winnipeg) could be trade bait.

 

[KingBogo]

I'd assume there will be a lot of discussion around this point -
A lot of contracts coming due and it's likely they would struggle signing everyone - and do they want to?
No one wants a full rebuild but we also don't want to be hamstrung with UFA contracts that contradict this orgs draft / develop model.
How do you see this playing out?

I think both Helly and Scheifele end up signing. Probably for a little longer than some would like, but not at bank breaking amounts. Also I think that reinforces a draft a draft and develop model. Both were drafted and developed by the organization and have proven to have given really good value on their 2nd contracts. If the organization doesn't take care of those players now, others will take note and wonder way they should commit to the organization through their primes. This also goes a long way in helping keep Ehlers and Connor in the fold when they come due.

My guess is PLD is likely moved, probably some truth to him wanting to be in Montreal. My guess is he is moved in the off season for a young player or 2 and maybe a pick.

 

[KingBogo]

I see it playing out real slow. Its a little scary actually. They don't seem to have the balls to make moves when they should and wait and wait.

I use the Trouba trade as an example. They waited too long the return was medicore at best. A number 4 or 5 dman and a AHL dman.

Kane is another example. They should have moved him after his 40 goal season. Not wait and wait.

Logic dictates that moving players earlier has more value .

This team needs to be in constant transition from players that need to be moved fir whatever reason.

Kane never had a 40 goal season with the Jets. He had one 30 goal season during the team's first year in Winnipeg. After that he never hit 20 goals in Winnipeg, mostly due to some injury plagued seasons.

 

[WaveRaven]

I in no way want to trade the 1st.

Surely Chevy can add a piece without trading a 1st, Lucious, Lambert or McGroarty?

Stanley, Heinola, Harkins, maybe on of the Russians (Chibrikov or Rashevsky - though I really hope Chevy can get Rashevsky to Winnipeg) could be trade bait.

No seconds either. We can't sign FAs we need all the prospects we can get.

I don't mind bottom 6 type moves.

Kane never had a 40 goal season with the Jets. He had one 30 goal during the team's first year in Winnipeg. After that he never hit 20 goals in Winnipeg, mostly due to some injury plagued seasons.

You're correct it was 30. Still waited too long.

 

[Heldig]

No seconds either. We can't sign FAs we need all the prospects we can get.

I don't mind bottom 6 type moves.

We dont have a 2nd.

Yes, I am hoping for another top 9 guy.

 

[WaveRaven]

We dont have a 2nd.

Yes, I am hoping for another top 9 guy.

There ya go. I forgot we wasted 2 2nds on Dillon.

I take issue with this idea we are a draft and develop team when we trade picks away. Like Dillon.

 

[Heldig]

There ya go. I forgot we wasted 2 2nds on Dillon.

I would not call them wasted. He is the top 4 guy we desperately needed IMO.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I think both Helly and Scheifele end up signing. Probably for a little longer than some would like, but not at bank breaking amounts. Also I think that reinforces a draft a draft and develop model. Both were drafted and developed by the organization and have proven to have given really good value on their 2nd contracts. If the organization doesn't take care of those players now, others will take note and wonder way they should commit to the organization through their primes. This also goes a long way in helping keep Ehlers and Connor in the fold when they come due.

My guess is PLD is likely moved, probably some truth to him wanting to be in Montreal. My guess is he is moved in the off season for a young player or 2 and maybe a pick.

Players sign for many reasons such as they think they’ll get the role they want and the team is competitive. So you can get rid of older players if the other players think you’ll keep winning.

 

[KingBogo]

No seconds either. We can't sign FAs we need all the prospects we can get.

I don't mind bottom 6 type moves.


You're correct it was 30. Still waited too long.

I don't know how easy he was to move. He had got a pretty bad reputation around the league by then, and he missed a lot of time with injuries. It took him being out for the season that helped make the trade with Buffalo as they were tanking hard for McDavid and really didn't want him playing that first season. There likely was some market, but not likely what Chevy considered full value until Buffalo came into the picture. I though Chevy ended up doing pretty well with that trade.

Players sign for many reasons such as they think they’ll get the role they want and the team is competitive. So you can get rid of older players if the other players think you’ll keep winning.

I think if you don't treat you're UFAs well, players won't give up those UFA years for relatively cheap when they sign long term contracts out of their ELCs.

 

[WaveRaven]

I give my left nut (They are useless now anyhow) to know what the offers actually are.

To me for Example PLD had to be worth more this summer with 2 years control than next year with 1 year.

 

[JetsFan815]

Without Helly and our top 2 centers make no mistake we will bottom out. The tricky part will then be convincing Ehlers and Connor to stay as their contracts come due the year after and the year after that. I’m guessing they’d prefer not to play out their primes in a full on rebuild.

It would be worse convincing them if we hang on to those guys and then lose them to nothing via UFA. With getting top assets for them by the deadline before they are UFA atleast you can make a pitch around the future, if that doesn't work... oh well. The window would be closed anyways.

 

[KingBogo]

It would be worse convincing them if we hang on to those guys and then lose them to nothing via UFA. With getting top assets for them by the deadline before they are UFA atleast you can make a pitch around the future, if that doesn't work... oh well. The window would be closed anyways.

I think the organization goes all in on trying to sign both of them July 1st. If they can't you start looking to make moves.

 

[KingBogo]

I give my left nut (They are useless now anyhow) to know what the offers actually are.

To me for Example PLD had to be worth more this summer with 2 years control than next year with 1 year.

For sure PLD was worth more last off season, and I advocated trading him through most of the summer. Without question having him makes us a better team this season.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I don't know how easy he was to move. He had got a pretty bad reputation around the league by then, and he missed a lot of time with injuries. It took him being out for the season that helped make the trade with Buffalo as they were tanking hard for McDavid and really didn't want him playing that first season. There likely was some market, but not likely what Chevy considered full value until Buffalo came into the picture. I though Chevy ended up doing pretty well with that trade.


I think if you don't treat you're UFAs well, players won't give up those UFA years for relatively cheap when they sign long term contracts out of their ELCs.

I don’t know if that’s true. The NHL career is short, I’d imagine if you offer players relative value they’ll take it because why take the extra risk. Versus taking a risk. As if you already have a contract you know what you’ll be paid if you get one injury and you don’t have a deal you lose everything. During ekc they also buy a house and develop a routine, why upset that Apple cart for a few more millions unless you are really unhappy. Also, Connor got a chance to develop on 1st line would another team have a player blocking him or who he could have been replaced with? Kfc and ehlers only broke out later.

 

[Adam da bomb]

For sure PLD was worth more last off season, and I advocated trading him through most of the summer. Without question having him makes us a better team this season.

But pld was not worth more 3 seasons ago coming off a mediocre playoffs.Also there might be more pressure on a gm in one year to get a guy like him for example Norris going down so there is more factors involved then just term. Pld is also potentially proving he won’t quit just because he wants out of a team which has some value. Note I didn’t say doesn’t want to be here I said potentially.

 

[KingBogo]

I don’t know if that’s true. The NHL career is short, I’d imagine if you offer players relative value they’ll take it because why take the extra risk. Versus taking a risk. As if you already have a contract you know what you’ll be paid if you get one injury and you don’t have a deal you lose everything. During ekc they also buy a house and develop a routine, why upset that Apple cart for a few more millions unless you are really unhappy. Also, Connor got a chance to develop on 1st line would another team have a player blocking him or who he could have been replaced with? Kfc and ehlers only broke out later.

I see a league wide trend for top players to not sign away UFA years, starting with the Matthews deal. You're also seeing the 3 year bridge much more often after the ELC contracts giving players full leverage going into their last year of team control. IMO teams will try and take care of players that they got good long term deals with off their ELCs. It is a bit of a dinosaur anyways as it is pretty clear the strategy agents are going with for the best young players.

 

[KingBogo]

But pld was not worth more 3 seasons ago coming off a mediocre playoffs.Also there might be more pressure on a gm in one year to get a guy like him for example Norris going down so there is more factors involved then just term. Pld is also potentially proving he won’t quit just because he wants out of a team which has some value. Note I didn’t say doesn’t want to be here I said potentially.

The playoffs before PLD came to Winnipeg he was 4 G 6 A 10 P in 10 games and carried Columbus on his back.

 

[surixon]

I see a league wide trend for top players to not sign away UFA years, starting with the Matthews deal. You're also seeing the 3 year bridge much more often after the ELC contracts giving players full leverage going into their last year of team control. IMO teams will try and take care of players that they got good long term deals with off their ELCs. It is a bit of a dinosaur anyways as it is pretty clear the strategy agents are going with for the best young players.

I am wondering if we start seeing less of those bridge deals once the salary cap starts to rise again. I am thinking a lot of the recent bridge signings was due to the flat cap.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Without Helly and our top 2 centers make no mistake we will bottom out. The tricky part will then be convincing Ehlers and Connor to stay as their contracts come due the year after and the year after that. I’m guessing they’d prefer not to play out their primes in a full on rebuild.

Yes - and maybe no.
I see 2 points to make in regards to the rebuild debate.
1) It has to be done sooner or later. There is no plan that puts it off forever. If you don't lose top players to trade or FA, you lose them to age. One way or another, you lose them.
2) It looks to me like the Jets are well setup for a quick turnaround rebuild. Typically, the rebuild teams that are looked at as case studies/warnings start with practically nothing in their systems. Jets prospect pool contains enough that all that would be needed for a rebuild is a relative few players at the top end. The middle and bottom should already be there.

Start with: Ehlers, Connor, Perfetti plus Gustafsson, Barron, Harkins, Appleton, AJF and add Lucius, McGroarty, Lambert, Rashevsky. That is already 12 F. That is not a F corps that could contend, but it is a strong base to build on. There are several more F prospects who may contribute to one degree or another.

On D we could start with a base of JMo, Samberg, Stanley, Capobianco, Heinola, Chisholm, Lundmark, Salomonson, Gawanke, Kuzmin. The D is thinner than the F but again, is a decent start. Some from each list may be used in trades but that gets complicated to project. Presumably there would be returns.

Then consider the value of what could be traded to augment that. Start with the obvious ones, PLD, Scheifele and Hellebuyck. Those should bring pretty big returns to add to the lists above. But there could also be lesser trades involving Lowry, Schmidt, Pionk, Dillon and DeMelo. Obviously, lesser returns but could add depth.

We would need some higher end talent added. Some could come from those trades. Some could come from higher picks in a couple of drafts. Goal would be a problem. We have a couple of longshots in Salminen and DiVincentiis. But we would need someone more established.

If those 3 top players choose not to extend here, or even if just 2 of them leave, we don't have a lot of choice, we need to rebuild. We can probably cope with 1 leaving, as long as it is not Helle. But if we extend Scheifele and Helle and their level of play falls off, we have the same need to rebuild but we would need to do it with their big contracts weighing us down. If we need to spend significant assets to move those contracts we set back our rebuild by a couple of years.

There is no path with a guarantee of success and it is hard to say which one has a higher probability of success. There are just too many unknowns. Keep your star players and they age out on you. Accumulate draft picks and they end up being in years with weak draft classes.

One factor that tips the scale for me, at least a bit, is that if you stay with your star players you get only another 2-3 years out of them. You don't get anything, or not much in exchange for them so you lose out on that boost to the start of your rebuild. If you go for the rebuild - and execute it successfully - you buy another 10-12 year cycle. But big ifs on each path.