Trade Deadline Thread (March 3)

[old kummelweck]

The 1st is a wildcard in this. I don’t think Horvat will improve the team enough.

I think that is wishful thinking. It changes the playoff race in the East immediately. NYI just increased the heat on WAS, PIT, BUF, FLO for those last two spots.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

To the boded: teams are trading for the expected value of those assets. If a pick busts or not doesn't make a trade good or bad. The exception being when you're trading at the draft for a pick to pick a particular player. Because then you're trading for the player, not the pick.

If Buffalo traded their 2OA pick in 2014 for Tampa's 3rd, well before the draft would that have been a good trade?

As a community I think we need to accept that there are truths about both speculative value and actual value when determining how 'good' a trade is. Seldom does anyone conflate cap space with another characteristic, and the same for chemistry. We may not value it as highly, but everyone generally acknowledges its existence. Its really only speculative value and actual value that get mixed.

You can make a trade: Patrik Berglund, Vladimir Sobotka and Tage Thompson, a first-round pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, and a second-round pick in the 2021 NHL Draft for ROR. The speculative value of the trade is low, an expected late 1st, a 2nd, a decent prospect with long shot odds of becoming the missing value in this trade. The actual value is low, Berglund and Sobotka will contribute little to nothing to winning games for this organization. However, the actual value isn't fixed until the trade is fully realized because the actual value of the trade takes into account outcome. The outcome, however unlikely the speculation was at the time the trade was made, is that Thompson far surpassed any reasonable expectations and we all agree that this was now a good trade based on value. We all agreed at the time it was not a good trade for speculative value and it is correct for us to maintain that opinion because speculative value takes into account the likelihood of outcomes.

Which is a long way of explaining why Botteril was wrong, you are right, and everyone who says "well we don't know that answer yet" needs to just answer the question because no one is asking you what the actual value of the trade was. Do you think Vancouver got more speculative value from the trade or the Isles?

 

[Jim Bob]

This might be an interesting listen.

 

[Jim Bob]

What do the San Jose Sharks want in a trade for Timo Meier?

It sounds like three pieces.

“What I’m hearing is a first-rounder — and one Grade-A or two Grade-B prospects, or one good prospect and a young, established NHL player,” a source from outside the San Jose Sharks organization told San Jose Hockey Now.

That won’t be three easy pieces for a team to give up.

Meier is an RFA, albeit with a $10 million qualifying offer, so his team does hold his rights next season. That should be a minor value add.

But let’s say Meier matches Horvat’s return: The San Jose Sharks should expect a protected first-round pick, a Grade-B prospect, and a solid, youngish NHL player (albeit on a less-than-desirable contract) back.

'23 1st, VO, and Rosen would be similar to the Horvat package...

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

I think that is wishful thinking. It changes the playoff race in the East immediately. NYI just increased the heat on WAS, PIT, BUF, FLO for those last two spots.

Isles could go into the All Star game back 3 of Buffalo and 2 of Pitt and have 3 games more played than them. January was a torpedo into the hull. Personally, I think they got good value for today. They need someone to score. I don't know if 1 Bo Horvat fixes their issue. But I also like the idea that if the Isles continue their January into February despite Horvat, he might actually get the same trade back to move him in a month.

 

[Chainshot]

This might be an interesting listen.

Just finished the 2nd hour of Marek’s show before the Horvat deal went down and they had a little chat about Adams possibly making a smaller move that does not mortgage the future but helps them down the stretch. His one guest tossed out Bonino’s name as just getting someone who has done it before though I have a hard time seeing how he displaces someone in the current lineup.

 

[Jim Bob]

Just finished the 2nd hour of Marek’s show before the Horvat deal went down and they had a little chat about Adams possibly making a smaller move that does not mortgage the future but helps them down the stretch. His one guest tossed out Bonino’s name as just getting someone who has done it before though I have a hard time seeing how he displaces someone in the current lineup.

I still think a 5th/6th level defenseman is the most likely add.

If they add a forward, I think it will be in reaction to someone going down.

 

[Chainshot]

I still think a 5th/6th level defenseman is the most likely add.

If they add a forward, I think it will be in reaction to someone going down.

Yep, depth defense remains the logical choice. I love that Clague had plugged in as a depth replacement for both Dahlin and Power partners but in a third pairing role, Bryson has been better and is still the guy I would most like to improve.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

As a community I think we need to accept that there are truths about both speculative value and actual value when determining how 'good' a trade is. Seldom does anyone conflate cap space with another characteristic, and the same for chemistry. We may not value it as highly, but everyone generally acknowledges its existence. Its really only speculative value and actual value that get mixed.

You can make a trade: Patrik Berglund, Vladimir Sobotka and Tage Thompson, a first-round pick in the 2019 NHL Draft, and a second-round pick in the 2021 NHL Draft for ROR. The speculative value of the trade is low, an expected late 1st, a 2nd, a decent prospect with long shot odds of becoming the missing value in this trade. The actual value is low, Berglund and Sobotka will contribute little to nothing to winning games for this organization. However, the actual value isn't fixed until the trade is fully realized because the actual value of the trade takes into account outcome. The outcome, however unlikely the speculation was at the time the trade was made, is that Thompson far surpassed any reasonable expectations and we all agree that this was now a good trade based on value. We all agreed at the time it was not a good trade for speculative value and it is correct for us to maintain that opinion because speculative value takes into account the likelihood of outcomes.

Which is a long way of explaining why Botteril was wrong, you are right, and everyone who says "well we don't know that answer yet" needs to just answer the question because no one is asking you what the actual value of the trade was. Do you think Vancouver got more speculative value from the trade or the Isles?

I'll introduce a third concept: I doubt NYI can leverage most of the value they just bought.

 

[Chainshot]

Not for nothing but Horvat playing a free wheeling game with Miller on his wing most of the year is probably not going to be the same as Horvat plugging into Lambert’s Trotz-lite system without anyone near Miller’s playmaking ability in the Isles lineup. If he rolls along in similar fashion, good for him. I just don’t see how it fits unless they put him together with Barzal and they have remarkable chemistry.

 

[Beerz]

'23 1st, VO, and Rosen would be similar to the Horvat package...

Easy yes.

But I'd really miss VO

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

I'll introduce a third concept: I doubt NYI can leverage most of the value they just bought.

the speculative value of horvat, I actually really like it, but there's a conflict between I like horvat with lou but I dont like anyones production with lou

i mostly just think its too late, they needed a horvat before they pooped the january bed, now its a horse race

i want to know what happened that this went down pre all star break, you could have waited until monday and not messed with all star weekend, both of these teams are on break already and there's a week after, instead lou rolled up in a convertible with aviators and middle fingers

 

[old kummelweck]

Isles could go into the All Star game back 3 of Buffalo and 2 of Pitt and have 3 games more played than them. January was a torpedo into the hull. Personally, I think they got good value for today. They need someone to score. I don't know if 1 Bo Horvat fixes their issue. But I also like the idea that if the Isles continue their January into February despite Horvat, he might actually get the same trade back to move him in a month.

11 PP goals, 4 SH goals. 1 point per game. Isles goal differential is +4 yet they are only one point behind buffalo with 3 more games played. If he helps them score 1 more goal a game, that could be the difference between playoffs or not. They play BFO twice, PIT twice, and WAS three times before the end of the season.

And he's signing an extension, apparently.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

11 PP goals, 4 SH goals. 1 point per game. Isles goal differential is +4 yet they are only one point behind buffalo with 3 more games played. If he helps them score 1 more goal a game, that could be the difference between playoffs or not. They play BFO twice, PIT twice, and WAS three times before the end of the season.

And he's signing an extension, apparently.

a goal per game is not a small thing

a goal per game increase makes the islanders the highest scoring team in the nhl

the islanders are currently 24th

speculative value: expecting Bo Horvat to turn the isles from the 24th most prolific offense to the most prolific offense

for reference the sabres are roughly a goal per game better at scoring this year than last, and they have 10 players playing at career paces

 

[Gabrielor]

'23 1st, VO, and Rosen would be similar to the Horvat package...

23 1st, VO, Rosen is more value than 1st, Raty, Beauvillier.

23 1st, Rosen, 2nd is closer...don't give up VO on a playoff push.

 

[DustyZ]

23 1st, VO, Rosen is more value than 1st, Raty, Beauvillier.

23 1st, Rosen, 2nd is closer...don't give up VO on a playoff push.

Hopefully a protected 1st like the Islanders

 

[Beerz]

Sabres mentioned. Not sure how much I buy it.

 

[PatLaFontaineASMR]

Sabres mentioned. Not sure how much I buy it.

Trading for Demko would pretty much mean Levi isn't interested in signing here.

 

[Push Dr Tracksuit]

Sabres mentioned. Not sure how much I buy it.

as long as theyre running a 3 headed monster theyll be in all goalie talks, but buffalo is in a 3 headed monster because they cant do it to UPL, won't do it to Anderson, and shouldn't do it to comrie, so not sure how they actually get into a goalie swap

Trading for Demko would pretty much mean Levi isn't interested in signing here.

would mean a lot more than that, Anderson would probably be on his way to the injured retired i mean reserved list, and that comrie or upl probably went the other way

 

[Beerz]

as long as theyre running a 3 headed monster theyll be in all goalie talks, but buffalo is in a 3 headed monster because they cant do it to UPL, won't do it to Anderson, and shouldn't do it to comrie, so not sure how they actually get into a goalie swap

would mean a lot more than that, Anderson would probably be on his way to the injured retired i mean reserved list, and that comrie or upl probably went the other way

Well I think they were talking more about a summer deal because Demko being hurt and probably teams wouldn't get a good enough look at him before deadline.

 

[Jacob582]

Just finished the 2nd hour of Marek’s show before the Horvat deal went down and they had a little chat about Adams possibly making a smaller move that does not mortgage the future but helps them down the stretch. His one guest tossed out Bonino’s name as just getting someone who has done it before though I have a hard time seeing how he displaces someone in the current lineup.

Bonino's 1 goal in his last 24 playoff games pace should help in the post season. Then again Kevin Adams had zero points during his 25 game Cup run.

 

[Gabrielor]

The Demko window was in November before UPL came on.

Don't like it now.

 

[Chainshot]

Bonino's 1 goal in his last 24 playoff games pace should help in the post season. Then again Kevin Adams had zero points during his 25 game Cup run.

The idea was more about having another presence who had been through the run up to a playoff, not so much a thought on getting someone who is going to create magic in a playoff run. I don't see where he'd fit on the ice at the moment.

 

[Chainshot]

The Demko window was in November before UPL came on.

Don't like it now.

Also, we don't know how his injuries are healing up. Some of our goalie crew have discussed that Demko may be a bit more worn out than we think. *shrug*

 

[Jim Bob]

23 1st, VO, Rosen is more value than 1st, Raty, Beauvillier.

23 1st, Rosen, 2nd is closer...don't give up VO on a playoff push.

I expect that Meier returns more since he is under team control beyond this season. And I do not think Rosen and a 2nd is equal to Raty and Beauvillier trade value wise.