Trade Deadline Thread (March 3)

[Bendium]

LeBrun: Islanders GM Lou Lamoriello bets big on Bo Horvat — will it pay off?

The Islanders' Horvat trade will have a different narrative depending on whether he is around for a few months or a number of years.

theathletic.com

Lou made this trade with no idea if they can extend Horvat or not.

And pending UFAs like Horvat are available every trade deadline.

I see your proof and acknowledge it. That said, wouldn't you expect Lou and the Horvat camp to say just that? If the Canucks did not give permission for a negotiation pre deal, then doing so directly would mean a tampering penalty. That doesn't mean that there are not soft work arounds to at least get a sense of price range and willingness thru backchannels. We will see.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

When it comes to the reaction grading thing with trades, it is a fool's errand to try and grade a trade for a selling team right after a trade like this takes place for a few reasons.

The obvious one is that we have no idea what picks and prospects will develop into down the road.

The other one is that we have no idea what the other offers were for the player or if they would get better or worse between now and the trade deadline.

If the Canucks had planned to hold him until a day or two before the deadline, they were risking that Horvat gets hurt and nobody trades for him. At least with a move like this, they have something to show for Horvat on his expiring deal.

It is easier to grade the NYI side of this. But again, we are speculating how Horvat will play in NY and if he moves the needle or not. If they miss the playoffs with Horvat, this is a big swing and a miss for Lou.

To the boded: teams are trading for the expected value of those assets. If a pick busts or not doesn't make a trade good or bad. The exception being when you're trading at the draft for a pick to pick a particular player. Because then you're trading for the player, not the pick.

If Buffalo traded their 2OA pick in 2014 for Tampa's 3rd, well before the draft would that have been a good trade?

 

[K8fool]

These guys don’t play like the Red Army. The Sabres beat the Soviet Wings which was the B team. Red Army played the good NHL teams losing to Philly and tieing Montreal. That tie in particular was a shot across Hockey Canada’s bow.

I think he has certainly incorporated some aspects of the style..I don't have the link where he mentioned it .

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

I think he has certainly incorporated some aspects of the style..I don't have the link where he mentioned it .

You're certainly correct, the entire league incorporated some of that style by the 80s. Teams don't have the time together to build out that neutral zone possession style the Soviets used.

 

[Jim Bob]

To the boded: teams are trading for the expected value of those assets. If a pick busts or not doesn't make a trade good or bad. The exception being when you're trading at the draft for a pick to pick a particular player. Because then you're trading for the player, not the pick.

If Buffalo traded their 2OA pick in 2014 for Tampa's 3rd, well before the draft would that have been a good trade?

But even a pick has variable value when you trade for them prior to the draft order being finalized.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

But even a pick has variable value when you trade for them prior to the draft order being finalized.

Yes it has some range, but there's an expected value for any range. EV for rolling a die is 3.5, if someone makes a deal with you valuing it otherwise you can evaluate their decision.

 

[LetsGoBuffalo1126]

Yes and no, there's some expected value which makes trading possible, and the evaluation of trades worthwhile.

If McDavid was traded for a 7th rounder, and somehow that 7th rounder ended up being a fantastic player, while McDavid was hit by a bus the next day; did Edmonton make a good trade? No ofc not.

Indeed, my statement is a bit glib. As was stated above, it's much easier to judge the team receiving the current player right now and the team receiving the futures down the road. I think there are other factors at play, too. To me, it would be much easier to judge a trade if we also knew some of the other pieces that were bandied about by the teams as well. Obviously we'll never know but it would make for scintillating conversation!

 

[Bendium]

I believe the team control beyond this season inflates the ask that Grier has for Meier.

We have seen the sky high ask on Chychrun and Erik Karlsson. That is in part because they are under team control beyond this season and their GM can be patient.

I have a feeling that Grier could take a similar approach with Meier and set the bar really, really high. Joe and Lance were talking about multiple 1st round equivalents plus VO as what they would guess Grier would ask Adams for in a Meier trade.

Using the DeBrincat or Horvat deals as a benchmark for a Meier deal might be setting the bar too low.

I generally agree with your post, and agree that each year of team control adds value to the trade. That said, the way his contract was structured at least detracts as much as that extra year adds if nott more. They backloaded his deal to give him 10 Mil this year, which makes his qualifying offer to keep him for that extra year around 10 million. If he does not sign a long deal right now, he gets 10 mil for next year OR is let go to UFA. It seems to me that he has alot of reason to not sign a contract yet unless it is a great deal. So the team that trades for him without a contract extension in place is taking a huge risk. Also, the number of teams that can swallow the cap hit is much smaller than for most trades. On top of that, most of the ones that have that cap room are tearing down or just starting rebuilds and would not be interested in this trade. The Sabres are one of the few teams with both the cap room, and the timing in thier rebuild to make it of intrest.

Basically, I think that contract structure really limits what Grier can get without a contract extension in place. So, unless he allows teams to start talking to Meier, he will have to reduce his asking price. I suspect he is just feeling out current interest and will wait till the offseason to really get serious. Likely a predraft trade?

 

[Jim Bob]

I generally agree with your post, and agree that each year of team control adds value to the trade. That said, the way his contract was structured at least detracts as much as that extra year adds if nott more. They backloaded his deal to give him 10 Mil this year, which makes his qualifying offer to keep him for that extra year around 10 million. If he does not sign a long deal right now, he gets 10 mil for next year OR is let go to UFA. It seems to me that he has alot of reason to not sign a contract yet unless it is a great deal. So the team that trades for him without a contract extension in place is taking a huge risk. Also, the number of teams that can swallow the cap hit is much smaller than for most trades. On top of that, most of the ones that have that cap room are tearing down or just starting rebuilds and would not be interested in this trade. The Sabres are one of the few teams with both the cap room, and the timing in thier rebuild to make it of intrest.

Basically, I think that contract structure really limits what Grier can get without a contract extension in place. So, unless he allows teams to start talking to Meier, he will have to reduce his asking price. I suspect he is just feeling out current interest and will wait till the offseason to really get serious. Likely a predraft trade?

I doubt it.

GM's trade for a guy expecting to sign them to an extension all the time. Just look at what Lou said about Horvat.

Meier does have a tough QO to swallow. But, I doubt that will affect Grier's opening ask given that he has reportedly set the price on EK as the equivalent of 3 1sts.

 

[SnuggaRUDE]

Indeed, my statement is a bit glib. As was stated above, it's much easier to judge the team receiving the current player right now and the team receiving the futures down the road. I think there are other factors at play, too. To me, it would be much easier to judge a trade if we also knew some of the other pieces that were bandied about by the teams as well. Obviously we'll never know but it would make for scintillating conversation!

If only we knew the bolded! That'd be as interesting as what actually occurred.

I still think you can evaluate the futures as they exist right now, certainly the selling teams do. Teams understand those assets have variance, as do some (but not all) fans. It's reasonable to evaluate a trade based on the expected outcome of the assets AND on the actual results years later.

 

[Djp]

When it comes to the reaction grading thing with trades, it is a fool's errand to try and grade a trade for a selling team right after a trade like this takes place for a few reasons.

The obvious one is that we have no idea what picks and prospects will develop into down the road.

The other one is that we have no idea what the other offers were for the player or if they would get better or worse between now and the trade deadline.

If the Canucks had planned to hold him until a day or two before the deadline, they were risking that Horvat gets hurt and nobody trades for him. At least with a move like this, they have something to show for Horvat on his expiring deal.

It is easier to grade the NYI side of this. But again, we are speculating how Horvat will play in NY and if he moves the needle or not. If they miss the playoffs with Horvat, this is a big swing and a miss for Lou.

on the surface the Horvat trade was around where I expected….

1st+2nd+ roster players to balance the cap.

The 1st is a wildcard in this. I don’t think Horvat will improve the team enough.

it’s similar to the Vanek trade.

 

[Bendium]

I doubt it.

GM's trade for a guy expecting to sign them to an extension all the time. Just look at what Lou said about Horvat.

Meier does have a tough QO to swallow. But, I doubt that will affect Grier's opening ask given that he has reportedly set the price on EK as the equivalent of 3 1sts.

Greir can ask for whatever he wants.....we will see if/when he get what he gets. My post wasn't about what he want's, its about what factors will affect what he gets.

 

[Jim Bob]

Greir can ask for whatever he wants.....we will see if/when he get what he gets. My post wasn't about what he want's, its about what factors will affect what he gets.

I just think the big QO doesn't scare as many GMs off and you seem to expect it to.

And I think Adams might be scared off by Grier's ask.

Lance said that Adams just made an initial checking in call on Meier and has not engaged in any real talks about a trade. The same with Chychrun.

 

[Bendium]

I just think the big QO doesn't scare as many GMs off and you seem to expect it to. (As long as you have cap space for it. That limits the pool of teams.)

And I think Adams might be scared off by Grier's ask. (He should be. Its too much without an extension.)

Lance said that Adams just made an initial checking in call on Meier and has not engaged in any real talks about a trade. The same with Chychrun. (Unfortunately, thats all I expect from Adams. Hope he suprises me.)

 

[Jim Bob]

@Bendium How many teams can afford to pay Meier $9-10M AAV starting next season?

At least 6 different playoff contenders have over $15M in cap space heading into the off season.

Carolina has close to $30M in cap space. Pittsburgh has $19M. NJ has $36M. Seattle has $20M.

There are enough teams out there for Grier to drum up plenty of interest.

 

[DapperCam]

I think it would be crazy to trade Quinn for Meier. I think Quinn will have similar production very soon at a small fraction (like 1/9th) of the cost.

Maybe I have lofty expectations, but you can see he is close to putting it all together at the NHL level. I would rather deal the prospects not in the NHL yet if possible (but really I would rather trade for a top 4 D anyway).

 

[Weltschmerz]

The title confused me a bit because it makes it sound like you would replace someone when you buy at the deadline.

One of the reasons that teams wait for the deadline is the roster limit is lifted, so you can get depth without pushing someone out.

So Timo Meier is the hot topic, very good player, but I have mixed feelings:

- The price to get him seems quite high for one year of team control left. He is a winger, even the good ones didn't cost last offseason. There will be teams desperate for cap space looking to deal some this offseason again.

- His next contract, QO is 10, there was some twitter stuff stuff he would sign for 9 why would he do that? Even Huberdoh got 10.

- Team Salary structure, next season Tage will get 7.142... Someone said Cozens would get 7,5, why would he get more than Tage? So if Cozens signs for the same or less maybe the price tag for Dahlin (this offseason) will not be that astronamical as well. Now if Meier gets 10 than Dahlin will probably get more. You get into a situation like the Leafs when they got Tavares, after that everybody will want that.

- Our pipeline is so deep at forwards, sure they are not there right now, but if we sign Meier long term he will occupy a spot in the top 6 for years when we could play young cheap talent there.

So what do I want, do nothing?

I don't want to pay big deadline prices. Add cheap depth that can fill in and fits the style we play, I mentioned Ghost before, can play both sides, can move the puck, lots of experience. He is hurt now and maybe not back before the deadline, could scare other buyers and lower the price.

What I don't want is someone like this:

Joel Edmundson

 

[ValJamesDuex]

I think it would be crazy to trade Quinn for Meier. I think Quinn will have similar production very soon at a small fraction (like 1/9th) of the cost.

Maybe I have lofty expectations, but you can see he is close to putting it all together at the NHL level. I would rather deal the prospects not in the NHL yet if possible (but really I would rather trade for a top 4 D anyway).

Meier is what your hoping Quinn becomes now. Quinn could be Oloffson and pt per game forwards do not come up often. Quinn has 3 pts in his last 10. Saying that I'm hoping Quinn is a L1/2 30G, complete player in 5 years.

If NJ gets Meier along with that D coming in a couple years, that will sting.

 

[PatLaFontaineASMR]

Meier is what your hoping Quinn becomes now. Quinn could be Oloffson and pt per game forwards do not come up often. Quinn has 3 pts in his last 10. Saying that I'm hoping Quinn is a L1/2 30G, complete player in 5 years.

If NJ gets Meier along with that D coming in a couple years, that will sting.

Quinn won't be making 9M though.

 

[Beerz]

I believe the team control beyond this season inflates the ask that Grier has for Meier.

We have seen the sky high ask on Chychrun and Erik Karlsson. That is in part because they are under team control beyond this season and their GM can be patient.

I have a feeling that Grier could take a similar approach with Meier and set the bar really, really high. Joe and Lance were talking about multiple 1st round equivalents plus VO as what they would guess Grier would ask Adams for in a Meier trade.

Using the DeBrincat or Horvat deals as a benchmark for a Meier deal might be setting the bar too low.

True.. but hopefully this years strong draft pushes Grier to do something earlier

 

[DapperCam]

Meier is what your hoping Quinn becomes now. Quinn could be Oloffson and pt per game forwards do not come up often. Quinn has 3 pts in his last 10. Saying that I'm hoping Quinn is a L1/2 30G, complete player in 5 years.

If NJ gets Meier along with that D coming in a couple years, that will sting.

I think Quinn can be near P/GP by the end of his ELC and he’ll be much cheaper. He has elite scoring ability that hasn’t quite shown up yet except in flashes. He’s going to put on 10 pounds before next season and the game will slow down for him.

 

[Selanne00008]

@Bendium How many teams can afford to pay Meier $9-10M AAV starting next season?

At least 6 different playoff contenders have over $15M in cap space heading into the off season.

Carolina has close to $30M in cap space. Pittsburgh has $19M. NJ has $36M. Seattle has $20M.

There are enough teams out there for Grier to drum up plenty of interest.

damn carolina has 30M?! tell me they have to pay a bunch of their young players asap. they're going to be great for a while..

 

[DustyZ]

Would be nice to try and snag a Dman who might be with us for a while. Dante Fabbro might be someone to look into if he's available.

 

[Aladyyn]

Meier is what your hoping Quinn becomes now. Quinn could be Oloffson and pt per game forwards do not come up often. Quinn has 3 pts in his last 10. Saying that I'm hoping Quinn is a L1/2 30G, complete player in 5 years.

If NJ gets Meier along with that D coming in a couple years, that will sting.

Quinn is already a miles better play driver than Olofsson ever could hope to be.

 

[Jim Bob]

damn carolina has 30M?! tell me they have to pay a bunch of their young players asap. they're going to be great for a while..

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They do have a lot of core guys hitting UFA over the summer of '23 and '24 more than young guys hitting RFA.