Speculation: Trade Deadline Options
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It's not cherry picking when everything points to the same thing. Numbers don't tell the whole story, but you can have 10 people watch the same game and have different opinions. Bias gets in the way.
So how does a terrible player that has no sense and can't skate allow less goals than any other defensman over a 3 year period?
lumbergh
It was an idea. I didn't say it was a good idea.
Every defensman makes those errors every single game. McNabb just gets singled out for it even though he makes them less than others.
Since he's joined the Kings, McNabb has been on the ice for 71 goals against in 2745 minutes. That's a GA/60 of 1.58, which is outstanding.
Goals against per 60 minutes, 5v5 rankings for defense (500 min. minimum):
2014-2015: 10th best NHL, best on the Kings
2015-2016: 16th best NHL, third on Kings (Doughty 1.59, Martinez 1.64, McNabb 1.66)
2016-2017: Currently best in NHL, best on the Kings.
And this will probably shock some folks... In the last 3 seasons, McNabb has the best GA/60 of any full-time defenseman in the league, ahead of Niskanen, Alzner, Zidlicky, Lindholm, Doughty, Larsson, Brodin, and so on.
Those defensive numbers over 2700+ minutes are hardly circumstantial, that's a huge sample size. And they aren't even advanced stats.
The fact is, McNabb makes fewer errors (including bad ones) than any D-man on this team in the last 3 years. So while some people may not like him and fixate on him when he makes a mistake, those numbers simply cannot lie.
I'm a full-time supporter of McNabb's, and I'm shocked to see those numbers. That's a large sample size. Other teams simply don't score when he's on the ice. Weird.
I'd like to see him next to Martinez more often. He's basically Greene's replacement, with more offensive upside. It's a good pairing.
lumbergh
It was an idea. I didn't say it was a good idea.
We all watch the games, man. Everybody has a different dead horse they wanna beat. Doughty turned the puck over for the only goal the Avs scored last night. A few nights ago it was Martinez. Muzzin has made his share of boneheaded plays. Muzzin has turned into Luke Schenn this year with the screens he has provided the other team.
The stats tell you something over the long term that you shouldn't ignore. The fact that McNabb has been quietly excellent at doing his job is easy to overlook because he doesn't dipsy-doodle or fire the puck high and wide. If he scored 25-30 points a season everyone would get all excited, but he's not there. Where he is is in front of and behind the Kings' net bashing heads.
Ziggy Stardust
Master Debater
If McNabb is so trustworthy and such a stalwart on defense, explain to me why he's averaging less than 16 minutes of ice time per game. That's bottom pairing minutes.
There's a reason why his minutes have been reduced by quite a bit after last season, and why Forbort is earning more ice time than him.
Thankfully the coaching staff doesn't just look at a sheet with numbers and actually apply context and review video to determine their lineups.
McNabb is a prime example of how these "advanced stats" can be misleading without any context. If you pay attention to him, you'll see how often he's a liability on the ice. But if all you pay attention to are advanced stats, then I guess he's the best defenseman in the NHL!
I mean, with stats like that, there's no reason the Kings can't acquire a Duchene or Landeskog in exchange for McNabb, right?
There's a reason why his minutes have been reduced by quite a bit after last season, and why Forbort is earning more ice time than him.
Thankfully the coaching staff doesn't just look at a sheet with numbers and actually apply context and review video to determine their lineups.
McNabb is a prime example of how these "advanced stats" can be misleading without any context. If you pay attention to him, you'll see how often he's a liability on the ice. But if all you pay attention to are advanced stats, then I guess he's the best defenseman in the NHL!
I mean, with stats like that, there's no reason the Kings can't acquire a Duchene or Landeskog in exchange for McNabb, right?
Basilisk
Registered User
- Aug 5, 2012
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lumbergh
It was an idea. I didn't say it was a good idea.
You're mistaking a defensive stat for overall quality. The reason why McNabb and Gravel don't get more ice time is that they haven't developed any offensive skill. I made this case before, that if McNabb put points on the board, everyone would be ga-ga over him like we were over Muzzin a few years ago. Everyone loves Forbort this year (and rightly so) because he's made some nice plays on offense, knows how to walk the blue line and generate shots (he's also playing solid defense).
There's no glory for a stay-at-home defenseman. If he didn't handle the puck like it was a live hand grenade, that would be good. McNabb seems like a liability on the ice, but that's not what the numbers say. That's the thing about numbers. You can use them to look past your own subjective evaluations, or you can just ignore them when they don't fit your view.
Why doesn't McNabb get more minutes? There's no reason numbers-wise. Put him with a Martinez or Doughty and watch him shine.
I'll issue you a question. Explain why McNabb has the lowest goals against per 60 minutes of 5 vs. 5 times of any defenseman on the Kings, if he's such a liability.
Ziggy Stardust
Master Debater
He's being sheltered by not being on the ice against top six forwards. That's what Doughty, Forbort, Muzzin and Martinez are facing.
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
Ehh that's not why. He spent extended time with Doughty last year and had similar numbers so you think it would be the Doughty effect but it's not.
There are a few rational explanations though. High on-ice save percentage (some luck), preferential deployment.
He is better than most here think and I"m glad I'm not the only one thinking that, but I do agree with you that he's not as godly as the numbers show. That's a data set WORTH questioning "why" and the truth likely lies in the middle. I mentioned elsewhere, maybe even in this thread, that he's very rookie-Muzzin--actually very very good but makes egregious errors that people remember.
- Mar 9, 2002
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If McNabb's numbers are so Godly DL better be on the phone to the Coyotes to try and sell that stats driven front office on McNabb while his value still looks good.
Buy low, sell high
Can you explain his fantastic numbers last year when he was with Drew facing top competition every night? It's an effect of who slots with who. No way is DS going to move Forbort away from Doughty, he's been a wreck without him and he's the only partner he's excelled with. I certainly wouldn't change that pairing now, maybe in the future as Forbort continues to adjust and grow.
Like RJ said, he's not an epic top pairing guy, but he's much better than he's given credit for. He's anything but terrible, he's very solid back there. In almost all cases, his partners have performed better with him than without him. And he's diverse, he has shown he's effective on any pairing he's put on.
BigKing
Blake Out of Hell III: Back in to Hell
What is this nonsense about trading Martinez in '14 and maybe Muzzin too?
DL basically returned a team that just went through an amazing Cup run. Why would you trade those guys back then? This team was poised for another run before Voynov blew the thing to shreds.
Richards should of been let go. That's the big mistake. His **** play and then the drama surrounding him going to the AHL was a real detriment to the '15 season, never mind that he has a cap hit now for the rest of eternity.
You don't win the Cup and immediately start trading young defensemen. Martinez was most likely signed due to the Voynov murkiness but there is no way you move him prior to the '15 season.
The "crazy" move that should of been discussed--at the least--was moving Quick after '15 to get away from that contract since they should of known Jones would be adequate. Even then, you are talking about moving one of the most loved players in franchise history.
DL became just like most every other GM and fell in love with his guys that delivered him his greatest glory. Took the easy route by keeping everyone and now we are all kind of going down with the ship.
It almost feels like it is too late to reverse things but a lot of that has to do with the way Kopitar is playing. If he keeps playing like this, they are ****ed for the next decade unless they pull some legit studs out in the draft.
DL basically returned a team that just went through an amazing Cup run. Why would you trade those guys back then? This team was poised for another run before Voynov blew the thing to shreds.
Richards should of been let go. That's the big mistake. His **** play and then the drama surrounding him going to the AHL was a real detriment to the '15 season, never mind that he has a cap hit now for the rest of eternity.
You don't win the Cup and immediately start trading young defensemen. Martinez was most likely signed due to the Voynov murkiness but there is no way you move him prior to the '15 season.
The "crazy" move that should of been discussed--at the least--was moving Quick after '15 to get away from that contract since they should of known Jones would be adequate. Even then, you are talking about moving one of the most loved players in franchise history.
DL became just like most every other GM and fell in love with his guys that delivered him his greatest glory. Took the easy route by keeping everyone and now we are all kind of going down with the ship.
It almost feels like it is too late to reverse things but a lot of that has to do with the way Kopitar is playing. If he keeps playing like this, they are ****ed for the next decade unless they pull some legit studs out in the draft.
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
Lombardi took this job in April of 2006- almost 11 years ago.
He turned this organization around and won 2 cups in 11 years. No doubt he and his staff have done a great job.
On the flip side though, some of his poor decisions over the past few years has really hurt this organization. We (the fans) all knew eventually some of these short term decisions would catch up to this team, we just didn't think it would be less than 3 years from the last cup run.
I would not be surprised if there is a major shake up this summer - which is kinda sad that the turn-around in sports is so short that a GM who wins 2 cups in just over a decade, but has missed the playoffs one year and knocked out in the 1st the next is considered for the axing.
Either way though, this team still resembles the teams from 2012 and 2014 and that can't happen in the Cap world.
He turned this organization around and won 2 cups in 11 years. No doubt he and his staff have done a great job.
On the flip side though, some of his poor decisions over the past few years has really hurt this organization. We (the fans) all knew eventually some of these short term decisions would catch up to this team, we just didn't think it would be less than 3 years from the last cup run.
I would not be surprised if there is a major shake up this summer - which is kinda sad that the turn-around in sports is so short that a GM who wins 2 cups in just over a decade, but has missed the playoffs one year and knocked out in the 1st the next is considered for the axing.
Either way though, this team still resembles the teams from 2012 and 2014 and that can't happen in the Cap world.
Raccoon Jesus
We were right there
11 years is a lifetime in sports though. Even despite Lombardi trying to keep the band together more than most GMs, look how different the roster from 2012 looks from today's.
At this point a shakeup is inevitable, it's the timing that's the question.
At this point a shakeup is inevitable, it's the timing that's the question.
Brown-Kopitar-Williams
Penner-Richards-Carter
King-Stoll-Lewis
Richardson-Fraser-Nolan
Doughty-Scuderi
Mitchell-Voynov
Martinez-Greene
Quick, Bernier
vs.
King-Kopitar-Toffoli
Pearson-Carter-Brown
Kempe-Dowd-Clifford
Gaborik-Shore-Lewis
Doughty-Forbort
Muzzin-Martinez
Gravel-McNabb
Quick,Budaj, Zatkoff
Penner-Richards-Carter
King-Stoll-Lewis
Richardson-Fraser-Nolan
Doughty-Scuderi
Mitchell-Voynov
Martinez-Greene
Quick, Bernier
vs.
King-Kopitar-Toffoli
Pearson-Carter-Brown
Kempe-Dowd-Clifford
Gaborik-Shore-Lewis
Doughty-Forbort
Muzzin-Martinez
Gravel-McNabb
Quick,Budaj, Zatkoff
BigKing
Blake Out of Hell III: Back in to Hell
Yep. Read it on my phone while walking in to the office. Then I think I even brought it up in the wrong thread.
In case I haven't said it before, I'm just glad my thoughts on the Richards non-buyout are now out there for all to see. Still a successful post.
KingsFan7824
Registered User
- Dec 4, 2003
- 19,537
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It's the smart moneyball move. Trade a guy a year too early rather than a year too late. If you're getting a certain level of play for a guy at X price, but the price is going to shoot up soon, but the level of play will at best remain the same, you trade that guy for cheaper options with more potential. There's not many sports franchises that work that way though, because most try to hang onto any shred of competitiveness as long as they can, because it's very easy to get lost in the shuffle for a long time with so many teams. Of course you can end up lost in the wilderness by holding onto that same shred of competitiveness too.
By then, Quick is already signed to huge money, and how many teams need a goalie with that kind of contract? The time to trade Quick would've been June 2012. Still a year left on his contract at the time, red hot after winning the Conn Smythe, and before he signed a decade long contract. By 2015, all that was long gone, and Jones was a RFA.
The time to trade all these guys is at least a year before they become UFA's. You get what you can out of them before they're 25/26/27 years old, and before they start asking for big money(in the case of Muzzin and Martinez, quadrupling their cap hit), you ship them out for younger and cheaper options. It's a business, not a family, there's a cap, so get out.
If you treat players like commodities, you are going to get robotic play in return. Guys are going to play for themselves and contracts since they know they likely wont stick around anyways.
If you take care of your players and treat them like family, they will play for each other rather for themselves, and that's how you win championships.
Obviously you don't want to make dumb decisions, but the better you treat players the better they will perform.
damacles1156
Registered User
- Feb 5, 2010
- 21,668
- 1,318
Kingsfan, is posting sarcastically about how certain folks like myself, think it's a bad idea to give 28/29 or 30+ year old players seven/eight year deals.
Not actually serious about what he is posting.
eleventy
Conditioner before shampoo
- Jul 4, 2007
- 1,493
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God I miss that back end. The 2012 and 2014 defense corps were such well-oiled machines.
damacles1156
Registered User
- Feb 5, 2010
- 21,668
- 1,318
Probably never see another Defense like that in our lifetime.
Folks need to accept that, it was perfect, and healthy for the most past.
Albi
Registered User
Not really healthy in the 2014 Cup run, as both Mitchell and Regehr lost games due to injuries. But our offense was IMO our best ever, with 3 excellent and balanced lines capable of scoring.
KINGS17
Smartest in the Room
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kingskring
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