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Speculation: Trade Deadline Options

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Amart isn't a bad dman. On most teams he probably is a #4.

I still think LA fell apart after he went down last year.

I just think that paring Muzz and Amart has brought out the worst in each.

I'm even starting to think that they probably wont get max value in a return this year just because they have been so off.
 
See, my point of contention isn't what he's doing offensively. He can still make good plays and is capable of doing so. My concerns with Martinez as a top four defenseman is this...

1) His physicality. I don't think he's cut for handling the physical abuse. He's taken a lot of it already in his career.

2) His size. He gets overpowered in the corners and in front of his net. A lot of the goals he's been on the ice for have been a result of him failing to recover from a lost battle in front of the net or along the boards.

3) He's thinking offense more than defense. I see this with their premature zone exits and how he can get caught out of position on many occasions that direclty resulted in outnumbered attacks. His defensive partner is just as guilty of this. There's been numerous times where the play has gone from the boards to an open area around the net, and Martinez has been caught either out of position or in transition, leading to many glorious chances for the opposition, or worse.

4) He's better suited playing behind the top 4. He could take more risks when he had Doughty, Muzzin, Voynov, Mitchell all ahead of him in ice time. Now that he's one of the top 3 guys, his risk taking is more noticeable (along with Muzzin) and it shows how badly these guys are hurting not being paired with smarter linemates. Muzzin misses Doughty. Martinez misses having a rock solid, stay-at-home defenseman as a partner. He is mismatched with this current group.

5) His age and durability. Like I said before, with his average size and lack of a physical game, I'm not sure how much longer his body can withstand playing 20+ minutes when he's entering his 30s and has a track history of getting injured. He's no Doughty or Muzzin in that regard. He'll be well past his prime at the end of his contract when he'll be 33. He'll be 30 at the start of next season. I think we've seen the best from Martinez already and don't see him getting any better at the age of 30 and beyond.

I know what he's capable of and how great of an asset he was to the team when he was paired up with Matt Greene on one of the best group of 6 d-men any team has assembled in this era. The Kings had the perfect balance in every defensive pairing from top to bottom from 2012 through 2014. Sadly, they lost half of that blueline shortly after the last Cup win and we are seeing the results of that.

Guys like Forbort, LaDue and Gravel have to step in and eventually become the successors to guys like Mitchell, Voynov and eventually Martinez. I have high hopes that someday Clague will be able to have that type of impact as well. One of the few prospects remaining in the system who has a high ceiling.
 
I'm not going to be too nitpicky because I don't really disagree with that, but if what you're actually saying is he's a mismatch for our top-4 vs. he's not a top-4 d-man, I'm on board with that. He's having to play his offside. It's great that he's versatile, but we've been exploiting that to the max and that's why his play has fallen off. If we could exchange him for an equivalent RHD I'd do it in a second once the sentimentality wore off. But in general I don't think many people realize he's a pretty unique d-man in his versatility, now experience, and abilities.
 
Seems like whoever the Kings pair with Doughty becomes a top 4 D man and as soon as that player is paired with someone else he becomes crap. Muzzin and McNabb haven't played well since paired with Doughty.

Martinez was a 3rd pairing D man during the 1st cup run in 2012. It was Doughty-Scuderi, Mitchell-Voynov and Greene-Martinez.

So Martinez, though paid 4 million, has always slotted better as a #5 D man. Seems like when the Kings move him in the top 4 up he either shines or totally busts (this year). He hasn't found a steady rhythm as a top 4 D man. He is good on the 3 on 3 though.

It seems stats wise AMart's best season was 2013-2014. I have to look back and see who he played with from 2013-2015. I know that Greene pairing last awhile until Matt was hurt. Greene missed most of AMart's best season, 2013-2014 but came back in the playoffs. My mind is drawing a blank but who did he play with last year? He has a solid year last year as well.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=81001
 
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Should've traded Martinez at the 2014 draft. Still had a year left at only $1.1m. He was still the OT goal to win a series and a Cup guy. Muzzin should've been gone at the same time. Also still had a year left at $1m. He and Doughty were the "it" pairing.

That would've been selling high. Just two more missed opportunities.
 
What's concerning will be what itll cost to lock up Pearson and Toffoli and whether or not one of them will price themselves off the team (like what happened to O'Sullivan and Cammalleri).
 
Reaper45 said:
What about Forbort then? He's been good with everybody.
Click to expand...

Forbort is better than expected and looked solid, but he's still the worst CF% on the team by a pretty good margin. His Goals Against/60 is worse than anyone not named Martinez or Muzzin. His Goals For/60, once really high, has come down and is right with Doughty, Muzzin, Martinez, and McNabb. His relative stats are even worse, his CF relative to team is -9.77, the only other two negatives are Greene and LaDue, who are -1.64 and -1.54. His CA rel is not quite as bad, but the only ones worse than him are Greene and Ladue.

Derek has made solid progress, but because he's new a lot of his deficiencies are overlooked. And he still suppresses Drew's numbers:

Together, their CF60 is 53.27, unremarkable but solid. When separated:

Forbort = 52.34
Doughty = 70.94

Without Doughty, Forbort's goals against numbers are terrible, ballooning from 1.44 per 60 to 2.71. His DZFO drops from 29.1 to 24.4. His OZFO% rises from 31.7 to 39.7.

It's just some perspective, but Forbort has been terrible without Doughty.
 
Fishhead said:
Forbort is better than expected and looked solid, but he's still the worst CF% on the team by a pretty good margin. His Goals Against/60 is worse than anyone not named Martinez or Muzzin. His Goals For/60, once really high, has come down and is right with Doughty, Muzzin, Martinez, and McNabb. His relative stats are even worse, his CF relative to team is -9.77, the only other two negatives are Greene and LaDue, who are -1.64 and -1.54. His CA rel is not quite as bad, but the only ones worse than him are Greene and Ladue.

Derek has made solid progress, but because he's new a lot of his deficiencies are overlooked. And he still suppresses Drew's numbers:

Together, their CF60 is 53.27, unremarkable but solid. When separated:

Forbort = 52.34
Doughty = 70.94

Without Doughty, Forbort's goals against numbers are terrible, ballooning from 1.44 per 60 to 2.71. His DZFO drops from 29.1 to 24.4. His OZFO% rises from 31.7 to 39.7.

It's just some perspective, but Forbort has been terrible without Doughty.
Click to expand...

Forbort has never been terrible. That's why he's +5 and M&M are in JMFJ territory. He's easily the second best D on the team inside the blueline.
 
Ziggy Stardust said:
And whenever Forbort has not played with Doughty, hasn't Martinez been his primary partner?

http://www.dobberhockey.com/frozenp...17:R:99&Submit=Show+Line+Combinations&sent=go

Appears that Martinez is his second most frequently used partner. Might be a theme here...
Click to expand...

They are not good together, but Forbort's possession numbers still show an increase when with him. Their goals against is terrrrible though. Martinez has better numbers with Muzzin than Forbort, and that's saying something.
 
Ziggy Stardust said:
What's concerning will be what itll cost to lock up Pearson and Toffoli and whether or not one of them will price themselves off the team (like what happened to O'Sullivan and Cammalleri).
Click to expand...

They should both be traded. Toffoli won't double his goal production to go along with what will probably be at least close to a 100% raise, and Pearson will never be at the same production/contract ratio he's at right now.

Protect them for the expansion draft, and trade them both by the normal draft. Have to recoup the lost and gone forever value of Brown and Gaborik somehow, and trading the two young wingers would help with that. Can't trade Kopitar, can trade Carter to regain some of Kopitar's value, so that needs to happen too. The organization is wasting time if they keep the 70's line, because the Kopitar, Brown, Gaborik trio that is being paid like a 1st line isn't a 1st line.
 
HookKing said:
Forbort has never been terrible. That's why he's +5 and M&M are in JMFJ territory. He's easily the second best D on the team inside the blueline.
Click to expand...

Forbort is a +5 because he plays mostly with Doughty. With Doughty he's a +9, without him he's a -5.
 
Ziggy Stardust said:
And whenever Forbort has not played with Doughty, hasn't Martinez been his primary partner?

http://www.dobberhockey.com/frozenp...17:R:99&Submit=Show+Line+Combinations&sent=go

Appears that Martinez is his second most frequently used partner. Might be a theme here...
Click to expand...

Yes, the theme here is that Martinez is having a bad year, because...

Fishhead said:
Forbort is better than expected and looked solid, but he's still the worst CF% on the team by a pretty good margin. His Goals Against/60 is worse than anyone not named Martinez or Muzzin. His Goals For/60, once really high, has come down and is right with Doughty, Muzzin, Martinez, and McNabb. His relative stats are even worse, his CF relative to team is -9.77, the only other two negatives are Greene and LaDue, who are -1.64 and -1.54. His CA rel is not quite as bad, but the only ones worse than him are Greene and Ladue.

Derek has made solid progress, but because he's new a lot of his deficiencies are overlooked. And he still suppresses Drew's numbers:

Together, their CF60 is 53.27, unremarkable but solid. When separated:

Forbort = 52.34
Doughty = 70.94

Without Doughty, Forbort's goals against numbers are terrible, ballooning from 1.44 per 60 to 2.71. His DZFO drops from 29.1 to 24.4. His OZFO% rises from 31.7 to 39.7.

It's just some perspective, but Forbort has been terrible without Doughty.
Click to expand...

Forbort has played 1137 even strength minutes in the NHL. 755 of them have been with Doughty. 181 have been with Martinez. It's a crap sample size and confined to a bad year for Marty.

Johnny Utah said:
Seems like whoever the Kings pair with Doughty becomes a top 4 D man and as soon as that player is paired with someone else he becomes crap. Muzzin and McNabb haven't played well since paired with Doughty.

Martinez was a 3rd pairing D man during the 1st cup run in 2012. It was Doughty-Scuderi, Mitchell-Voynov and Greene-Martinez.

So Martinez, though paid 4 million, has always slotted better as a #5 D man. Seems like when the Kings move him in the top 4 up he either shines or totally busts (this year). He hasn't found a steady rhythm as a top 4 D man. He is good on the 3 on 3 though.

It seems stats wise AMart's best season was 2013-2014. I have to look back and see who he played with from 2013-2015. I know that Greene pairing last awhile until Matt was hurt. Greene missed most of AMart's best season, 2013-2014 but came back in the playoffs. My mind is drawing a blank but who did he play with last year? He has a solid year last year as well.

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=81001
Click to expand...

Muzzin. Which is what makes this year's mess so weird.

And again, Martinez being 'better' as a #5 doesn't mean anything at all. Doughty would be a god as a #3.

Finally, wrong, Muzzin has been great away from Doughty for years. The Doughty effect works on everyone, but some players have been just fine without him, even McNabb at times.
 
Fishhead said:
Forbort is a +5 because he plays mostly with Doughty. With Doughty he's a +9, without him he's a -5.
Click to expand...

If I remember, he was -4 after a few games at season's start (with Greene?). You also fail to mention his GF/60 is higher than DD and he gets no pp time.
 
Martinez is having a career year offensively, his defensive numbers probably look worse than normal because hes always been an more of an offensive defenseman and our more defensive minded defensman that he has been paired with (Muzzin and McNabb) are not having good years.

Knight of the Realm said:
I'm even starting to think that they probably wont get max value in a return this year just because they have been so off.
Click to expand...

They are equal, trade the one that has more value in trade negotiations.
 
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HookKing said:
If I remember, he was -4 after a few games at season's start (with Greene?). You also fail to mention his GF/60 is higher than DD and he gets no pp time.
Click to expand...

I think you are looking at 5v5, where Derek is slightly better at 2.05, while Drew is at 2.03, so yes he's higher but it's essentially a dead heat. In all situations, Forbort is 1.98 while Drew is at 2.58, as it should be with the PP time.

Even with similar GF/60, Forbort has a GA/60 of 1.81 while Drew is 1.47, that's a substantial difference. In 706 minutes with Doughty, Forbort has been on the ice for 17 goals against, quite good. in 287 minutes without Doughty, Forbort has been on the ice for 13 goals against, which is not good at all.

Forbort was only a -2 with Greene, they only played 50 minutes together. Might have been Martinez, they've been a tire fire. The only partner other than Doughty that Forbort has looked decent with is Gravel, and that's only for about 20 minutes of time.
 
CowMix said:
Martinez is having a career year offensively, his defensive numbers probably look worse than normal because hes always been an more of an offensive defenseman and our more defensive minded defensman that he has been paired with (Muzzin and McNabb) are not having good years.



They are equal, trade the one that has more value in trade negotiations.
Click to expand...

McNabb has been great with Martinez when they've been together. Outstanding possession numbers and only 1 goal against in 66 minutes, with 3 goals for.

I'm not sure how McNabb isn't having a good year, he's got the best CF% in the entire NHL, has a GF/60 of 1.96 and a GA/60 of 1.26. He's picking up right where he left off last year where he had an outstanding season with Drew. And that's having to come back from an injury. The guy is criminally underrated around here, he's a whipping boy for some reason. McNabb's numbers are actually trending up a bit from last year.
 
Fishhead said:
McNabb has been great with Martinez when they've been together. Outstanding possession numbers and only 1 goal against in 66 minutes, with 3 goals for.

I'm not sure how McNabb isn't having a good year, he's got the best CF% in the entire NHL, has a GF/60 of 1.96 and a GA/60 of 1.26. He's picking up right where he left off last year where he had an outstanding season with Drew. And that's having to come back from an injury. The guy is criminally underrated around here, he's a whipping boy for some reason. McNabb's numbers are actually trending up a bit from last year.
Click to expand...

hmm maybe I was wrong about McNabb then, but isn't he playing pretty sheltered minutes?
 
Did you see the tape to tape passes McNabb made to Avs players inside his own zone? And he did it twice, consecutively. He's unpopular here because of how many egregious errors he makes. These advanced stats are all circumstantial. You guys do know there's other players on the ice, those numbers don't isolate individual performance, and McNabb has never been a driving force on any pairing.
 
Ziggy Stardust said:
Did you see the tape to tape passes McNabb made to Avs players inside his own zone? And he did it twice, consecutively. He's unpopular here because of how many egregious errors he makes. These advanced stats are all circumstantial. You guys do know there's other players on the ice, those numbers don't isolate individual performance, and McNabb has never been a driving force on any pairing.
Click to expand...

Every defensman makes those errors every single game. McNabb just gets singled out for it even though he makes them less than others.

Since he's joined the Kings, McNabb has been on the ice for 71 goals against in 2745 minutes. That's a GA/60 of 1.58, which is outstanding.

Goals against per 60 minutes, 5v5 rankings for defense (500 min. minimum):

2014-2015: 10th best NHL, best on the Kings
2015-2016: 16th best NHL, third on Kings (Doughty 1.59, Martinez 1.64, McNabb 1.66)
2016-2017: Currently best in NHL, best on the Kings.

And this will probably shock some folks... In the last 3 seasons, McNabb has the best GA/60 of any full-time defenseman in the league, ahead of Niskanen, Alzner, Zidlicky, Lindholm, Doughty, Larsson, Brodin, and so on.

Those defensive numbers over 2700+ minutes are hardly circumstantial, that's a huge sample size. And they aren't even advanced stats. :)

The fact is, McNabb makes fewer errors (including bad ones) than any D-man on this team in the last 3 years. So while some people may not like him and fixate on him when he makes a mistake, those numbers simply cannot lie.
 
Ziggy Stardust said:
Did you see the tape to tape passes McNabb made to Avs players inside his own zone? And he did it twice, consecutively. He's unpopular here because of how many egregious errors he makes. These advanced stats are all circumstantial. You guys do know there's other players on the ice, those numbers don't isolate individual performance, and McNabb has never been a driving force on any pairing.
Click to expand...

He has a bit of 2013 (and 16-17, heh) Muzzin syndrome where he does 95% of the game exceedingly well but the 5% he does poorly he does extremely poorly so people remember it. I agree with that part.

To the boldfaced, as pointed out, this isn't simply the Doughty effect, this is McNabb carrying his play regardless of linemates and d-partners. Hard to call it circumstantial when relative to the team he's better than almost everyone regardless of who he is rolled out with. He's not necessarily driving play I agree but he's a good complimentary d-man if he irons out those egregious errors. Though I will say, to support what we're agreeing on, that he is getting bailed out by the goalie a whole hell of a lot more than Muzzin/Martinez.
 
Fishhead said:
Every defensman makes those errors every single game. McNabb just gets singled out for it even though he makes them less than others.

Since he's joined the Kings, McNabb has been on the ice for 71 goals against in 2745 minutes. That's a GA/60 of 1.58, which is outstanding.

Goals against per 60 minutes, 5v5 rankings for defense (500 min. minimum):

2014-2015: 10th best NHL, best on the Kings
2015-2016: 16th best NHL, third on Kings (Doughty 1.59, Martinez 1.64, McNabb 1.66)
2016-2017: Currently best in NHL, best on the Kings.

And this will probably shock some folks... In the last 3 seasons, McNabb has the best GA/60 of any full-time defenseman in the league, ahead of Niskanen, Alzner, Zidlicky, Lindholm, Doughty, Larsson, Brodin, and so on.

Those defensive numbers over 2700+ minutes are hardly circumstantial, that's a huge sample size. And they aren't even advanced stats. :)

The fact is, McNabb makes fewer errors (including bad ones) than any D-man on this team in the last 3 years. So while some people may not like him and fixate on him when he makes a mistake, those numbers simply cannot lie.
Click to expand...

You need to watch the games instead of cherry-picking stats. McNabb is simply terrible. He can't skate and has poor hockey sense. There is a reason he's been a healthy scratch this year and is on the bottom pair.

Did you watch tonights game? Brutal.
 
Anyone else see that "rumor" on the main board of Vancouvers owner and someone else flying to L.A. and Futa being named their new GM? Ay yi yi.
 
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