GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread -- To trade or not to trade...

[Punch Drunk Loov]

It feels like we make changes 1 year too late every time.

 

[VanW27]

sure but then you have to look at the other rumours

1.) Tavares was worth 13 x 7 to SJ. Dubas convinced him to come here for 2 million less multiple sources including Tavares agent said he had a 13 x 7 contract on the table.

2.) Friedman reported multiple teams had said they were going to offer sheet Matthews at 15 x 7
He signed for 11.6 x 5

3.) multiple rumours were that Columbus was going to offer sheet and had tried to sign marner for 13 x 7.

GM of the year for every year apparently couldn’t have signed nylander a year early apparently but dubas was supposed to.

We can’t just selectively decide which rumours are real and go with them because we want to be mad.

I don’t love everything dubas has done.

1.) I didn’t like foligno deal
2.) I hoped we would try to get a younger goalie solution like minny or vanacek or Ned or hill. Orrrr go cheaper on the backup like holtby for. 2 x 2
3.) I am hoping we decide to trade rielly if he goes up to 8 x 8.

I will find it unacceptable to walk rielly to ufa. I personally. Didn’t care about Hyman. He is way over rated. I wouldn’t have signed him for that as an expansion team.

but we can’t just treat rumours as fact

Fair enough, there's only so much stock you can put in rumours. I would say that what other teams are willing to offer players in a certain situation (Tavares, Matthews OS, Marner OS) isn't really relevant to me. If another team is willing to overpay, let them - every player should have a price (both contract and in trade)

 

[Legion34]

Fair enough, there's only so much stock you can put in rumours. I would say that what other teams are willing to offer players in a certain situation (Tavares, Matthews OS, Marner OS) isn't really relevant to me. If another team is willing to overpay, let them - every player should have a price (both contract and in trade)

sure but what other teams are willing to pay our players is very relevant to the salaries
We end up paying.

I am on record right after the foligno trade I didn’t like it at all.

I didn’t want Hyman back. A player who has never hit more than 21 g or 40 pts and has had knee injuries in 2 of his last 3 seasons. It has Ladd lucic written all over it to me.

I didn’t care about losing bozak or JVR or gardener for nothing. They would have got us mid picks at best.

rielly is the kicker for me. If we let him go for nothing then I want dubas out. You can’t let a top pair d In this market go.

I’m still betting we can get a long term worse player for him. Calgary and pitt need Puck movers. Calgary has none and letang is 35 and a ufa

 

[VanW27]

sure but what other teams are willing to pay our players is very relevant to the salaries
We end up paying.

I am on record right after the foligno trade I didn’t like it at all.

I didn’t want Hyman back. A player who has never hit more than 21 g or 40 pts and has had knee injuries in 2 of his last 3 seasons. It has Ladd lucic written all over it to me.

I didn’t care about losing bozak or JVR or gardener for nothing. They would have got us mid picks at best.

rielly is the kicker for me. If we let him go for nothing then I want dubas out. You can’t let a top pair d In this market go.

I’m still betting we can get a long term worse player for him. Calgary and pitt need Puck movers. Calgary has none and letang is 35 and a ufa

Yeah, I agree with all that basically.

Didn't like Foligno trade

Wanted Hyman back but only at a reasonable price (even a year out I think the price was probably too high) - I suspect Dubas made a last minute offer that Edmonton saved him from

Gards and Bozak I agree, the value wasn't that high and they provided value to the young Leafs team. There was some thought one or both could have been extended even if it wasn't realistic. I think JVR should have been moved, there didn't seem to be an avenue to bring him back and he would have brought value in return (paced for ~30G every season as a Leaf, coming off a 29G 62pt season and finished his Leaf career with a 36G season)

And again agreed on Rielly, he's too good to let walk and with the big 4 contracts in place and Muzzin/Brodie locked in we know what the money situation is. Dubas needs to pull the trigger one way or the other.

 

[SprDaVE]

Not a lot but this plus Kessels retention finally off the books, an extra 2.2M is ok I guess.

Also projection is that it will be around 91M in 5 or so years.

SERAVALLI: NHL salary cap projected to rise to $82.5 million in 2022-23 - Daily Faceoff

 

[ToneDog]

Who is Carter and Alomar in this case?

Eichel and Dahlin (Alomar).

 

[Pi]

Not a lot but this plus Kessels retention finally off the books, an extra 2.2M is ok I guess.

Also projection is that it will be around 91M in 5 or so years.

SERAVALLI: NHL salary cap projected to rise to $82.5 million in 2022-23 - Daily Faceoff

That's not enough.

We better trade Morgan Rielly either before the season starts or at worst before the trade deadline. There is no way we can afford him at the 9M he will probably ask after seeing what just transpired this offseason.

Losing Bozak, JVR, Gardiner type talents for nothing is fine but you cannot lose Rielly for nothing as that is a first round pick+ a decent prospect return in a deeper 2022 draft. He can't be an own rental because this team hasn't proven that they deserve an own rental. Based on everything we know about this team right now is that it will make the playoffs and likely get bounced in round 1 against Tampa or Boston.

We will likely get worse before we get better so it's time to trade Rielly for a ransom.

 

[Pi]

sure but what other teams are willing to pay our players is very relevant to the salaries
We end up paying.

I am on record right after the foligno trade I didn’t like it at all.

I didn’t want Hyman back. A player who has never hit more than 21 g or 40 pts and has had knee injuries in 2 of his last 3 seasons. It has Ladd lucic written all over it to me.

I didn’t care about losing bozak or JVR or gardener for nothing. They would have got us mid picks at best.

rielly is the kicker for me. If we let him go for nothing then I want dubas out. You can’t let a top pair d In this market go.

I’m still betting we can get a long term worse player for him. Calgary and pitt need Puck movers. Calgary has none and letang is 35 and a ufa

Fully agreed. I like Dubas but he absolutely needs to trade Rielly before the trade deadline if a reasonable extension cannot be agreed upon. You can't let a guy like Rielly walk for nothing when this team has proven absolutely nothing in the playoffs.

If I am GM, I am maximizing my return right now and trading him right now. Tyson Barrie who was a rental + Kerfoot and got Kadri in return.

Rielly >>>> Barrie. Trade him now.

 

[hockeynorth]

Fully agreed. I like Dubas but he absolutely needs to trade Rielly before the trade deadline if a reasonable extension cannot be agreed upon. You can't let a guy like Rielly walk for nothing when this team has proven absolutely nothing in the playoffs.

If I am GM, I am maximizing my return right now and trading him right now. Tyson Barrie who was a rental + Kerfoot and got Kadri in return.

Rielly >>>> Barrie. Trade him now.

Barrie was super highly valued at the time remember, but I do agree. I think we get a bit more than that.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

The issue is if the leafs do trade Rielly at the deadline and don't bring in a top pairing defender as a replacement they essentially just wasted a year.

Either he is getting resigned or he is walking for free. Really don't see a situation where Dubas trades him because Dubas knows it is make the 2nd round this year or he is gone (if he is unwilling to move core pieces)

 

[Fogelhund]

Sandin is both the Leafs' best prospect and a player rushed into the NHL too quickly. The GM is aching for a big win at the draft table and couldn't be patient enough to allow it to happen organically (Sandin and Robertson both rushed into NHL service).

I'm not one to believe in the tired trope of "ruining a prospect" by rushing a player to the highest level. The presumption there is that these already 1% of talented athletes can't handle a little failure and setbacks. That level of fragility is already selected out at a much younger age. And on the oft chance a few slip through on talent alone to get drafted and signed, I don't think they have what it takes. Pro sports are constantly testing the resiliency of its athletes. It's unforgiving.

Sandin and Roberston have been rushed in the NHL? What did I just read?

 

[hockeynorth]

NYR:
Morgan Rielly

TOR:
2022 1st (unprotected)
K'Andre Miller
*conditional 2022 2nd round pick (becomes a 3rd if they miss playoffs)

 

[dubplatepressure]

NYR:
Morgan Rielly

TOR:
2022 1st (unprotected)
K'Andre Miller
*conditional 2022 2nd round pick (becomes a 3rd if they miss playoffs)

sign me up.

 

[hockeynorth]

sign me up.

It seems the best for both teams, if K’Andre became Rielly the Rags would be over the moon, this way they get a really good #2 for Fox. They also have way too many prospect D as is. They also can go for it if they acquire Eichel this way.

Furthermore that 1st is likely middle of the pack. This deal is also good for the Leafs because it gives them someone who can play in their top 4 right now and a 1st to play with to acquire a replacement i.e. Damon Severson.

 

[hockeynorth]

Also further to that deal I posted, it’s nearly identical to the Kevin Shattenkirk trade package, you just swap Miller for Sanford in that trade. With Rielly being better, this seems perfectly reasonable.

There’s other teams you can purse this with too.

 

[kb]

Also further to that deal I posted, it’s nearly identical to the Kevin Shattenkirk trade package, you just swap Miller for Sanford in that trade. With Rielly being better, this seems perfectly reasonable.

There’s other teams you can purse this with too.

Colorado with Byram?

 

[VanW27]

NYR:
Morgan Rielly

TOR:
2022 1st (unprotected)
K'Andre Miller
*conditional 2022 2nd round pick (becomes a 3rd if they miss playoffs)

Rangers are a team I was looking at as well.

Miller and Lindgren both make some sense to me, I don't know if the Rangers would move Miller though with his upside and how much he played as a rookie.

Lindgren plays a nice steady game, PKs, not flashy but gets the job done. 3x3AAV left on his contract and still just 23. If you feel Sandin is the future offensive driver at ES and PP than a guy like Lindgren slots in nicely.

 

[hockeynorth]

Colorado with Byram?

byram is likely too highly valued.

Also COL has no real need for a top tier dman.

Rangers are a team I was looking at as well.

Miller and Lindgren both make some sense to me, I don't know if the Rangers would move Miller though with his upside and how much he played as a rookie.

Lindgren plays a nice steady game, PKs, not flashy but gets the job done. 3x3AAV left on his contract and still just 23. If you feel Sandin is the future offensive driver at ES and PP than a guy like Lindgren slots in nicely.

I think Lindgren doesn't have the upside we need back in a trade but he does make more sense from the NYR side. The other options are Zach Jones, Filip Chytil, Braeden Schneider or Vitali Kravtsov depending on what NYR wants to move. They just make a ton of sense IMO.

Would also add WPG, MTL, CGY, SEA, STL, PIT, and BOS to the list.

 

[VanW27]

byram is likely too highly valued.

Also COL has no real need for a top tier dman.


I think Lindgren doesn't have the upside we need back in a trade but he does make more sense from the NYR side. The other options are Zach Jones, Filip Chytil, Braeden Schneider or Vitali Kravtsov depending on what NYR wants to move. They just make a ton of sense IMO.

Would also add WPG, MTL, CGY, SEA, STL, PIT, and BOS to the list.

Yeah, Lindgren would need a pretty significant plus added, I just don't seem them moving Miller and though not a sexy pickup Lindgren is steady and would fill a nice role for us long term.

 

[KMNRB]

Not a lot but this plus Kessels retention finally off the books, an extra 2.2M is ok I guess.

Also projection is that it will be around 91M in 5 or so years.

SERAVALLI: NHL salary cap projected to rise to $82.5 million in 2022-23 - Daily Faceoff

I guess that explains all these crazily high AVV 8 years contracts.

The big jump will come after the big contracts have expired. So we get no benefit of the inflation.

In one sense, we are so unlucky that if there had not been a pandemic, the cap would likely be 90M in 2 or 3 years, within the contract window of Matthews and Nylander.

In another sense, if were able to sign them to 8 years deals instead of 5 or 6, the contract would still look cheap for a couple of years. Or even if we had bridged them, the situation would look better.

 

[Gabriel426]

That’s what off seasons are for. Hopefully he made progress in both areas

Really hope he improves in both areas

 

[Mugzy97]

NYR:
Morgan Rielly

TOR:
2022 1st (unprotected)
K'Andre Miller
*conditional 2022 2nd round pick (becomes a 3rd if they miss playoffs)

Seems like an overpayment from NYR

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Seems like an overpayment from NYR

Seems right given what Jones received.

 

[PromisedLand]

I find it interesting that Bogo's reason for not re-signing with the Leafs, at least what was reported, was that he didn't want to play in a city that is very restricted.

Given COVID is kicking ass in Florida, I wonder if he is happy signing in Tampa.

Again assuming, restrictions were the reason and not anything else like winning

 

[Mugzy97]

An idea that I haven't read on here:

Instead of trading Rielly, I think it would make more sense to move Muzzin. We're paying him 5.625M for 3 more years and he'll likely start declining very soon if he hasn't already. We could easily afford to resign Rielly and just run Rielly, Dermott, Sandin down the left side.