GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread -- To trade or not to trade...

[Gabriel426]

Watching Sandin play regularly could be very painful due to his lack of size and speed

 

[diehardleafsfan9878]

he was literally 5th in Norris 3 years ago.

Yes he has 1 season in which he was considered for the Norris, meanwhile other defencemen seem to be in the conversation EVERY single year. That year also looks to be a big statistical outlier having scored 20 goals while he's never had another season over 9.

 

[cookie]

Connor Carrick Seattle-bound. Hope he hits it big

 

[New Liskeard]

Watching Sandin play regularly could be very painful due to his lack of size and speed

Expecting Sandin and or Dermott to step into Reillys role and replace him seamlessly is beyond painful.

 

[Stonehands1990]

Watching Sandin play regularly could be very painful due to his lack of size and speed

That’s what off seasons are for. Hopefully he made progress in both areas

 

[Stonehands1990]

Yes. A lot of posters here live in fantasy land where playoff teams sell off their UFAs on the regular.

That doesn't happen in the NHL. It's bad business, especially in a league where every other year a dark-horse sneaks into the finals.

I've only seen a trade like this once in the past 20 years that I can remember - when St Louis, a playoff contender at the time, dealt Shattenkirk for a 1st. Funny enough, we tried to do the same dang thing with Barrie 2 years ago, but couldn't sucker anyone into giving us a decent offer.

The Shattenkirk deal only happened because they had Pietrangelo, Shatty and Parayko on the right side. If only works if you have a replacement. In St Louis example it was addition by subtraction

 

[Avilaj07]

The more I think about it, the more I'd love that move with Calgary regarding Rielly for Hanafin +. Hanafin is locked in at a reasonable cap hit for another 3 years. Is a solid top 4 defenseman and I think would partner perfect with Brodie.

 

[Kiwi]

All of us said we had the best chance at the semis at least last year ,If dubas moved hyman at the deadline this board woulda had a meltdown. It's easy to sit here now after the disappoint of losing and say ya we shoulda traded him and got asset. We were all asking for tdl additions not subtractions last year

What you don't seem to realize is that our management had plenty of time before last year's TDL to make a decision on Hyman

Throwing up your hands at the last minute and saying that sucks when you've seen this particular train coming down the tracks for the last 18 months is mismanagement to a biblical level

Our asset management is disgusting

Multiple valuable players walked for nothing, check
Multiple top 90 picks on 4th liners at the TDL, check
Between a rock and a hard place with Rielly now, check

No bloody wonder the prospect pools looking a bit thin

Make a ******* decision, don't wait until the last minute, try to recoup value, be proactive and try to set markets instead of letting people set them for you, show some foresight

If that's to hard it's time to start firing people, starting with the GM and president

 

[Nylander88]

What you don't seem to realize is that our management had plenty of time before last year's TDL to make a decision on Hyman

Throwing up your hands at the last minute and saying that sucks when you've seen this particular train coming down the tracks for the last 18 months is mismanagement to a biblical level

Our asset management is disgusting

Multiple valuable players walked for nothing, check
Multiple top 90 picks on 4th liners at the TDL, check
Between a rock and a hard place with Rielly now, check

No bloody wonder the prospect pools looking a bit thin

Make a ******* decision, don't wait until the last minute, try to recoup value, be proactive and try to set markets instead of letting people set them for you, show some foresight

If that's to hard it's time to start firing people, starting with the GM and president

It's called an "own rental", and it is extremely common on teams that think they have a shot at competing.

 

[VanW27]

What you don't seem to realize is that our management had plenty of time before last year's TDL to make a decision on Hyman

Throwing up your hands at the last minute and saying that sucks when you've seen this particular train coming down the tracks for the last 18 months is mismanagement to a biblical level

Our asset management is disgusting

Multiple valuable players walked for nothing, check
Multiple top 90 picks on 4th liners at the TDL, check
Between a rock and a hard place with Rielly now, check

No bloody wonder the prospect pools looking a bit thin

Make a ******* decision, don't wait until the last minute, try to recoup value, be proactive and try to set markets instead of letting people set them for you, show some foresight

If that's to hard it's time to start firing people, starting with the GM and president

It's called an "own rental", and it is extremely common on teams that think they have a shot at competing.

It's more than an own rental thing, that's going to be the case sometimes it's just a reality of the business.

The problem has been the "If you have time take it" approach that was a Lou tactic that Dubas has embraced to the fullest. Most of the asset losses could have been avoided or mitigated if they had been dealt with right away.

Matthews/Marner/Nylander - I know it's impossible to say for sure but getting these deals done as soon as possible would have likely saved us at least a couple million of cap space in the short term and much more in the longterm.

• Matthews probably gets the same or similar money but over an 8 year term instead
• Marner likely gets 1-2 million less and an 8 year term
• Nylander might have had to pay up a little but likely would have been able to get the 7-8 year term

Hyman - all signs pointed to a deal getting done at a reasonable number this time last year, instead you wait and the numbers keep climbing higher and higher and he ends up walking

Rielly - if a deal was done and ready to sign on Free agent day he's probably looking at 6.5-7 million AAV, now we're looking at 8+ on a 7 or 8 year deal. He's our best dman and management fancies us cup contenders how do you trade that away? Looks like he'll walk for nothing too next summer unless he's willing to take a massive discount.

 

[Legion34]

It's more than an own rental thing, that's going to be the case sometimes it's just a reality of the business.

The problem has been the "If you have time take it" approach that was a Lou tactic that Dubas has embraced to the fullest. Most of the asset losses could have been avoided or mitigated if they had been dealt with right away.

Matthews/Marner/Nylander - I know it's impossible to say for sure but getting these deals done as soon as possible would have likely saved us at least a couple million of cap space in the short term and much more in the longterm.

• Matthews probably gets the same or similar money but over an 8 year term instead
• Marner likely gets 1-2 million less and an 8 year term
• Nylander might have had to pay up a little but likely would have been able to get the 7-8 year term

Hyman - all signs pointed to a deal getting done at a reasonable number this time last year, instead you wait and the numbers keep climbing higher and higher and he ends up walking

Rielly - if a deal was done and ready to sign on Free agent day he's probably looking at 6.5-7 million AAV, now we're looking at 8+ on a 7 or 8 year deal. He's our best dman and management fancies us cup contenders how do you trade that away? Looks like he'll walk for nothing too next summer unless he's willing to take a massive discount.

????? why would a reasonable deal get done on free agent day?

Hamilton jones and makar had already signed for. 9.

 

[The Podium]

The more I think about it, the more I'd love that move with Calgary regarding Rielly for Hanafin +. Hanafin is locked in at a reasonable cap hit for another 3 years. Is a solid top 4 defenseman and I think would partner perfect with Brodie.

I honestly think this makes a lot of sense. Obvious downgrade, but we get Hanafin at a lower cap hit and it isnt as big of a blow to our D. Ideally the + is Mangiapane but I doubt that happens.

????? why would a reasonable deal get done on free agent day?

Hamilton jones and makar had already signed for. 9.

I believe he meant that if Reilly had a pre-agreed upon deal and signed at the start of 2021 FA (the first date he was eligible) prior to the nutty D deals.

 

[fahad203]

Watching Sandin play regularly could be very painful due to his lack of size and speed

A young d who hasn't even played a full season. It usually takes a D 2-3 years in NHL before their find their stride

He'll be our best D in few years, you can write this down.

Keefe totally ambushed and set him up for failure. Even Montreal didn't play Romanov who played more games during regular season against the Leafs until game 6

He's not a speedster but he's not as bad some of you make up to be with his skating. Paul Byron is a heck of a skater and Habs are a very good skating team
They make a lot of teams look slow

 

[Legion34]

I honestly think this makes a lot of sense. Obvious downgrade, but we get Hanafin at a lower cap hit and it isnt as big of a blow to our D. Ideally the + is Mangiapane but I doubt that happens.



I believe he meant that if Reilly had a pre-agreed upon deal and signed at the start of 2021 FA (the first date he was eligible) prior to the nutty D deals.

sure but what if Reilly said no? No one did it. If you were Reilly would you sign a deal that can’t be signed to the day of ufa without waiting to see how it plays out?

people act like negotiating with star millionaires is like buying a couch.

Rielly has the leverage. He decides how much he is willing to sign for and when.

all dubas or any GM can do is set the walk away price and trade him if he doesn’t agree.

But the idea that he can make rielly sign early is silly

 

[VanW27]

????? why would a reasonable deal get done on free agent day?

Hamilton jones and makar had already signed for. 9.

Because what we heard leading up to that day was Rielly wanted to come back and was willing to take a discount with the numbers being around 6.5 per. Obviously that's just rumours but that's what we have to go on. If the deal was done and negotiated just needed to wait to be signed than that's what it would (or could) have been.

Now that a bunch of his peers have signed in the 8-9 range I doubt he's still seeing 6.5 as a reasonable deal.

 

[Legion34]

Because what we heard leading up to that day was Rielly wanted to come back and was willing to take a discount with the numbers being around 6.5 per. Obviously that's just rumours but that's what we have to go on. If the deal was done and negotiated just needed to wait to be signed than that's what it would (or could) have been.

Now that a bunch of his peers have signed in the 8-9 range I doubt he's still seeing 6.5 as a reasonable deal.

Lebrun said rielly wants to stay and might take less.

Mirtle said he would guess that rielly would be worth 6.5. No one said that a 6.5 million deal was on the table.

None of that has any bearing on reality. Dubas said that they he had talked to riellys camp and they were going to wait to see what the cost was after UFA.

If you just base your alternate reality on what could have been version of reality on rumours. And compare them to what happens you are setting yourself up for disappointment.

 

[VanW27]

sure but what if Reilly said no? No one did it. If you were Reilly would you sign a deal that can’t be signed to the day of ufa without waiting to see how it plays out?

people act like negotiating with star millionaires is like buying a couch.

Rielly has the leverage. He decides how much he is willing to sign for and when.

all dubas or any GM can do is set the walk away price and trade him if he doesn’t agree.

But the idea that he can make rielly sign early is silly

That's true, there's no way to know. But we have 2 recent examples of high profile players with the Leafs (Marner, Hyman) and now Rielly seemingly following in the same footsteps, where the rumours of the contract ask/offer when it first could have got done were much less than what they signed for when the actual contract got done a year later.

Obviously there's risk to that but the GM and pro scouts need to be able to make those decisions.
Marner after 2x 60+ point seasons signing an 8 year 9-9.5AAV deal would have looked a bit nuts at the time, but instead you wait and he puts up 94 pts and you give him a 6 year 10.9AAV deal. Not only is costing you 1.4AAV more per year but it's 2 less years. I shudder to think what those 2 years that could have been locked in at 9-9.5 will cost, 13-14 million?

 

[Gallagbi]

That's true, there's no way to know. But we have 2 recent examples of high profile players with the Leafs (Marner, Hyman) and now Rielly seemingly following in the same footsteps, where the rumours of the contract ask/offer when it first could have got done were much less than what they signed for when the actual contract got done a year later.

Obviously there's risk to that but the GM and pro scouts need to be able to make those decisions.
Marner after 2x 60+ point seasons signing an 8 year 9-9.5AAV deal would have looked a bit nuts at the time, but instead you wait and he puts up 94 pts and you give him a 6 year 10.9AAV deal. Not only is costing you 1.4AAV more per year but it's 2 less years. I shudder to think what those 2 years that could have been locked in at 9-9.5 will cost, 13-14 million?

What were the Hyman rumors?

 

[Legion34]

That's true, there's no way to know. But we have 2 recent examples of high profile players with the Leafs (Marner, Hyman) and now Rielly seemingly following in the same footsteps, where the rumours of the contract ask/offer when it first could have got done were much less than what they signed for when the actual contract got done a year later.

Obviously there's risk to that but the GM and pro scouts need to be able to make those decisions.
Marner after 2x 60+ point seasons signing an 8 year 9-9.5AAV deal would have looked a bit nuts at the time, but instead you wait and he puts up 94 pts and you give him a 6 year 10.9AAV deal. Not only is costing you 1.4AAV more per year but it's 2 less years. I shudder to think what those 2 years that could have been locked in at 9-9.5 will cost, 13-14 million?

sure but then you have to look at the other rumours

1.) Tavares was worth 13 x 7 to SJ. Dubas convinced him to come here for 2 million less multiple sources including Tavares agent said he had a 13 x 7 contract on the table.

2.) Friedman reported multiple teams had said they were going to offer sheet Matthews at 15 x 7
He signed for 11.6 x 5

3.) multiple rumours were that Columbus was going to offer sheet and had tried to sign marner for 13 x 7.

GM of the year for every year apparently couldn’t have signed nylander a year early apparently but dubas was supposed to.

We can’t just selectively decide which rumours are real and go with them because we want to be mad.

I don’t love everything dubas has done.

1.) I didn’t like foligno deal
2.) I hoped we would try to get a younger goalie solution like minny or vanacek or Ned or hill. Orrrr go cheaper on the backup like holtby for. 2 x 2
3.) I am hoping we decide to trade rielly if he goes up to 8 x 8.

I will find it unacceptable to walk rielly to ufa. I personally. Didn’t care about Hyman. He is way over rated. I wouldn’t have signed him for that as an expansion team.

but we can’t just treat rumours as fact

 

[Legion34]

What were the Hyman rumors?

Mirtle said that he thought the leafs could have signed Hyman for some long term deal at like under 4 x 8. There was no real insider saying JT from what I can remember

 

[Ziggdiezan]

sure but then you have to look at the other rumours

1.) Tavares was worth 13 x 7 to SJ. Dubas convinced him to come here for 2 million less multiple sources including Tavares agent said he had a 13 x 7 contract on the table.

2.) Friedman reported multiple teams had said they were going to offer sheet Matthews at 15 x 7
He signed for 11.6 x 5

3.) multiple rumours were that Columbus was going to offer sheet and had tried to sign marner for 13 x 7.

GM of the year for every year apparently couldn’t have signed nylander a year early apparently but dubas was supposed to.

We can’t just selectively decide which rumours are real and go with them because we want to be mad.

I don’t love everything dubas has done.

1.) I didn’t like foligno deal
2.) I hoped we would try to get a younger goalie solution like minny or vanacek or Ned or hill. Orrrr go cheaper on the backup like holtby for. 2 x 2
3.) I am hoping we decide to trade rielly if he goes up to 8 x 8.

I will find it unacceptable to walk rielly to ufa. I personally. Didn’t care about Hyman. He is way over rated. I wouldn’t have signed him for that as an expansion team.

but we can’t just treat rumours as fact

This leafs fan would have taken the 4 top 5-10 picks from Columbus for Marner and called it a day.

Many teams can 'say' they are going to offersheet but they are very rarely done/done successfully and usually are just trying to drive up interest in a player via their agent. As you said we cant treat rumor as fact and all the offersheet stuff was rumors. Don't think a single team made an actually offersheet to either Marner or Matthews.

 

[ShaneFalco]

This leafs fan would have taken the 4 top 5-10 picks from Columbus for Marner and called it a day.

Yup especially with his demands and tactics. Marner only wanted to play here and Dubas just caved big time and it will cost us for the length of that contract or until he's run out of town because he can't produce in the playoffs

 

[justashadowof]

Sandin is both the Leafs' best prospect and a player rushed into the NHL too quickly. The GM is aching for a big win at the draft table and couldn't be patient enough to allow it to happen organically (Sandin and Robertson both rushed into NHL service).

I'm not one to believe in the tired trope of "ruining a prospect" by rushing a player to the highest level. The presumption there is that these already 1% of talented athletes can't handle a little failure and setbacks. That level of fragility is already selected out at a much younger age. And on the oft chance a few slip through on talent alone to get drafted and signed, I don't think they have what it takes. Pro sports are constantly testing the resiliency of its athletes. It's unforgiving.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Yup especially with his demands and tactics. Marner only wanted to play here and Dubas just caved big time and it will cost us for the length of that contract or until he's run out of town because he can't produce in the playoffs

Yup, I don't think Marner was ever planning on going anywhere else. I'm going to give this core 1 more chance to prove they can do something when it matters and then I will be full on board a retool / new management if they are unwilling to trade major players.

 

[VanW27]

What were the Hyman rumors?

I believe they were around 4AAV, I don't recall anything about term.