Trade and Free Agency Thread - C'mon More Trades!

[Menzinger]

It would honestly be best for his value if we were successful and he played well. That would make people want to trade him less obviously, but his play isn't really a problem, it's just that there are far better ways to allocate 7 million than a ~16 minute per game RW.

I don't necessarily think this team is better off though with two 3ish million dollar guys (like another pair of Kerfoot and Johnsson) instead.

Nylander is one of the few guys on this team outside of that first line that can drive offense. I think we'd be in for a rude surprise if that was absent from the lineup in the longer term.

 

[Menzinger]

If we do well in the playoffs, then Nash who's making 2.75M won't come back for 0.95M. Galchenyuk also won't be a 1M player.

Im not sure 30ish or so good games is enough for a guy like him to get a huge raise. Especially in the covid era of the NHL

I'd expect he'll get a deal similar to what Ottawa gave Ennis a couple seasons again around 800k.

 

[Mickey Marner]

I don't necessarily think this team is better off though with two 3ish million dollar guys (like another pair of Kerfoot and Johnsson) instead.

Nylander is one of the few guys on this team outside of that first line that can drive offense. I think we'd be in for a rude surprise if that was absent from the lineup in the longer term.

I don't want placeholder guys like Kerfoot and Johnsson, they are/were part of the problem as they don't fit securely anywhere in the lineup or provide anything our star players don't. I want players with multifaceted impact that compliment our core and direct us towards winning a cup. This season we're oversaturated with forwards (Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares, Kerfoot, Spezza, Thornton, Simmonds, Galchenyuk) that require PP time to get full value out of them. Need to trim that number down next year and focus on balancing lines at 5v5 and improving our PK. Wingers like Tuch, Killorn, Coleman, Palat, Landeskog, Donskoi, Hossa, Wilson, Oshie, Schwartz etc. co-exist better with Kucherov, Kane, Ovechkin, Tarasenko, Rantanen & Stone than Nylander does with Marner because they don't provide the exact same skillset. If we can acquire those types of players without moving Nylander that's fine, but we're still receiving diminishing returns from Nylander as long as we have Marner.

 

[Menzinger]

I don't want placeholder guys like Kerfoot and Johnsson, they are/were part of the problem as they don't fit securely anywhere in the lineup or provide anything our star players don't. I want players with multifaceted impact that compliment our core and direct us towards winning a cup. This season we're oversaturated with forwards (Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Tavares, Kerfoot, Spezza, Thornton, Simmonds, Galchenyuk) that require PP time to get full value out of them. Need to trim that number down next year and focus on balancing lines at 5v5 and improving our PK. Wingers like Tuch, Killorn, Coleman, Palat, Landeskog, Donskoi, Hossa, Wilson, Oshie, Schwartz etc. co-exist better with Kucherov, Kane, Ovechkin, Tarasenko, Rantanen & Stone than Nylander does with Marner because they don't provide the exact same skillset. If we can acquire those types of players without moving Nylander that's fine, but we're still receiving diminishing returns from Nylander as long as we have Marner.

5v5 is exactly why I wouldn't want to move off Nylander. Of the forwards you mentioned only the core 4 and Hyman can drive offense there. You ditch Nylander for cheaper depth assets they will be passengers offensively in those situations. And if an injury hits one of those core guys then things get even dicier.

I think youre overstating the potential overlap between Marners and Nylander here in terms of team contributions. I don't see a problem having a 1st line caliber winger on the ice for almost 2/3 of all icetime situations.

 

[4thline]

I don't necessarily think this team is better off though with two 3ish million dollar guys (like another pair of Kerfoot and Johnsson) instead.

But that's not the way the math lines up, or the way you'd reallocate the cap. Since we'd be looking at at least two players in, you have to look at two players out. So say Nylander+ Simmonds = 8.5m. So instead of "another Kerfoot & Johnsson" we're looking at Schwartz/Saad/Tatar/Palmieri+ Coleman/Granlund/Goodrow/Foligno, with Nylander's return on top

 

[613Leafer]

I don't necessarily think this team is better off though with two 3ish million dollar guys (like another pair of Kerfoot and Johnsson) instead.

Nylander is one of the few guys on this team outside of that first line that can drive offense. I think we'd be in for a rude surprise if that was absent from the lineup in the longer term.

It would all depend on the trade return. Because you wouldn't just have the ~$7M in capspace, but you'd have whatever it was you got back for Nylander. Presumably something like a 1st + solid young NHLer who could contribute right away + the capspace to use in free agency or elsewhere to shore up the team.

Freddy I think is very likely gone, with Rittich or someone else being signed to play a tandem role with Campbell. We can likely get ~$1.5-3M in capspace there, though that will pretty much all be absorbed by Hyman. To create some legitimate cap flexibility, moving one of the big forwards is really the only move, unless Sandin or Liljegren takes massive steps forwards and we can afford to move one of our D making $4.5M+ (but we won't know that for at least another season).

 

[BlueForever75]

This upcoming off season will depend on what transpires this playoffs with this forward core. If we are one and done again this playoffs I will guarantee that one of Marner or Nylander will be dealt. We also can be sure that one of Reilly or Muzzin will be gone as well.

Time will tell what happens, but if they want to keep this band of players together this is the year to prove it. Dubas has given every opportunity to team by acquiring the pieces necessary to be successful.

 

[Menzinger]

But that's not the way the math lines up, or the way you'd reallocate the cap. Since we'd be looking at at least two players in, you have to look at two players out. So say Nylander+ Simmonds = 8.5m. So instead of "another Kerfoot & Johnsson" we're looking at Schwartz/Saad/Tatar/Palmieri+ Coleman/Granlund/Goodrow/Foligno, with Nylander's return on top

The problem remains the same though, you're replacing Nylander with an older less impactful player plus a slightly better depth player - I'm not convinced that makes for a stronger lineup. Not to mention the older guys in that first group like Saad/Schwartz on their own almost be as expensive as Nylander. You really aren't saving much money for depth.

 

[Menzinger]

It would all depend on the trade return. Because you wouldn't just have the ~$7M in capspace, but you'd have whatever it was you got back for Nylander. Presumably something like a 1st + solid young NHLer who could contribute right away + the capspace to use in free agency or elsewhere to shore up the team.

Freddy I think is very likely gone, with Rittich or someone else being signed to play a tandem role with Campbell. We can likely get ~$1.5-3M in capspace there, though that will pretty much all be absorbed by Hyman. To create some legitimate cap flexibility, moving one of the big forwards is really the only move, unless Sandin or Liljegren takes massive steps forwards and we can afford to move one of our D making $4.5M+ (but we won't know that for at least another season).

I just don't think it makes much sense to move out Nylander for a quantity based package of lesser assets given that.the team is in a full blown "win now" focus. Now if they were to move him it should be more a classic 1 for 1 hockey trade - Quality in for quality out, it would be a different story.

Beacuse otherwise moving him for package results first and foremost in making the main roster weaker for the hope of it improving in future.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I just don't think it makes much sense to move out Nylander for a quantity based package of lesser assets given that.the team is in a full blown "win now" focus. Now if they were to move him it should be more a classic 1 for 1 hockey trade - Quality in for quality out, it would be a different story.

Beacuse otherwise moving him for a lacks results first and foremost in making the main making the roster weaker for the hope of it improving in future.

If we ever move Nylander, I think it will be when Robertson or Amirov need to be paid and they are ready to be high end top 6 guys.

 

[Menzinger]

If we ever move Nylander, I think it will be when Robertson or Amirov need to be paid and they are ready to be high end top 6 guys.

Development wise that seems to be where we may be heading. They've got a few years to show they're worth his (or someone else's money)

 

[4thline]

The problem remains the same though, you're replacing Nylander with an older less impactful player plus a slightly better depth player - I'm not convinced that makes for a stronger lineup. Not to mention the older guys in that first group like Saad/Schwartz on their own almost be as expensive as Nylander. You really aren't saving much money for depth.

I think you're underestimating the marginal impact in how a dollar scales, especially during the flat cap. Unless there is a radical reversal on UFA dollars this off-season (when it should be even further restrained) I think we see "impact" players in the 5-6 range, and 2.5-3.5 landing solid top 6 types.

 

[Menzinger]

I think you're underestimating the marginal impact in how a dollar scales, especially during the flat cap. Unless there is a radical reversal on UFA dollars this off-season (when it should be even further restrained) I think we see "impact" players in the 5-6 range, and 2.5-3.5 landing solid top 6 types.

I think guys with skill will still end up being paid around what was to be expected for them but the lower tier depth pieces like 4/3rd line tweeners and bottom pairing D who will get squeezed the most.

We'll have to see how it plays out I guess

 

[4thline]

I think guys with skill will still end up being paid around what was to be expected for them but the lower tier depth pieces like 4/3rd line tweeners and bottom pairing D who will get squeezed the most.

We'll have to see how it plays out I guess

Pietro as the single most rare asset in the game got squeezed like 30% vs. Doughty/ Karlsson
Brodie and Tanev @ 4.5 and 5 when pre-covid saw Faulk at 6.5 Muzzin/Lindell/Myers right around 6.
Dadonov and Toffoli @ 4.5 and 5, precovid had Hayes at 7, Zuccarello at 6, Van Reimsdyk @7 etc.

 

[Menzinger]

Pietro as the single most rare asset in the game got squeezed like 30% vs. Doughty/ Karlsson
Brodie and Tanev @ 4.5 and 5 when pre-covid saw Faulk at 6.5 Muzzin/Lindell/Myers right around 6.
Dadonov and Toffoli @ 4.5 and 5, precovid had Hayes at 7, Zuccarello at 6, Van Reimsdyk @7 etc.

Pietro also isn't as good as peak Doughty or Karlsson though. I'd concede he may have shaved a bit of money off his deal, but probably not as much as you think.

Those other contracts don't strike me as being particularly cheap, there's just fewer examples of gross overpayments.

Decent 2nd liners-non star 1st liners are still getting 5-7ish million contracts. Lesser top 6/9 guys getting in that 3-4.75 mil range. Top 4 D getting in that 4-6ish million range.

I don't think that's a noticible drop in salary. Maybe a half a million here or there for some guys, but nothing drastic. I mean there's a reason why JVR makes more money than a guy like Toffoli - he had much better numbers heading into free agency ect.

Edit: expanded point

 

[4thline]

Pietro also isn't as good as peak Doughty or Karlsson though. I'd concede he may have shaved a bit of money off his deal, but probably not as much as you think.

Those other contracts don't strike me as being particularly cheap, there's just fewer examples of gross overpayments.

Decent 2nd liners-non star 1st liners are still getting 5-7ish million contracts. Lesser top 6/9 guys getting in that 3-4.75 mil range.

I don't think that's a noticible drop in salary

4.5-5 vs. 6-7 is very noticeable and proportionally huge.

 

[Fogelhund]

Nylander and Tavares w/ Gakchenyuk 64% xG, 56.7% SCF, 73.5% HDCF, 71.4% GF
Nylander and Tavares w/o Gakchenyuk 57% xG, 55.4% SCG, 60% HDCF, 68.8% GF Improved across the board.

Nylander has been good... very good.

If this group can have success in the playoffs, the group will stay together. If not, changes will be made. Who knows what they might be.

 

[I am Canadian]

Hopefully Galchenyuk signs cheap as a thank you to the Leafs for giving him a chance

Galchenyuk: 1x 1.25M
Simmonds: 1x 1M
Spezza: 1x 850K
Hyman: 5x 4M
Bogosian: 1x 850K
Dreidger/Rittich: 2x (2-3M)

 

[613Leafer]

If this group can have success in the playoffs, the group will stay together. If not, changes will be made. Who knows what they might be.

That is ultimately the question. The NHL, unlike other leagues, has a completely different set of rules for the playoffs vs the regular season. So regular season success in this league is not necessarily predictive of post-season success. Other teams are given a ton of rope in terms of running interference multiple times every shift, crosschecking, roughing, checking from behind, etc.

In saying that, I feel much better about this team going into the playoffs compared to previous years - the team defence is certainly better, Matthews has developed into a better two-way player, and we've got a bit more grit throughout the lineup as well.We haven't had nearly as many blowouts this season, or games that left us fans shaking our heads wondering where the effort was. But if we have another first round exit, I don't think we can just point to having good regular season stats / advanced stats as a reason to keep the entire core together again.

 

[stickty111]

These 3 games are a good wake up call to the crowd who wants Nylander gone

 

[mydnyte]

This upcoming off season will depend on what transpires this playoffs with this forward core. If we are one and done again this playoffs I will guarantee that one of Marner or Nylander will be dealt. We also can be sure that one of Reilly or Muzzin will be gone as well.

Time will tell what happens, but if they want to keep this band of players together this is the year to prove it. Dubas has given every opportunity to team by acquiring the pieces necessary to be successful.

I'd deal them both and go after Hamilton and one of Oleksiak/Gudbranson/Savard ...and move Brodie back to the Left side

 

[Joel Ward]

I'd deal them both and go after Hamilton and one of Oleksiak/Gudbranson/Savard ...and move Brodie back to the Left side

Brodie strongly prefers playing on the right side and Muzzin to Oleksiak/Gudbranson/Savard is an enormous downgrade at present.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Hamilton is too shot-happy and unpredictable in the defensive end for my taste, but he could be a great PP presence. I'd deal Rielly if we signed him, but he's not somebody I'm pining for. I think he re-signs in Carolina anyways.

 

[mydnyte]

Brodie strongly prefers playing on the right side and Muzzin to Oleksiak/Gudbranson/Savard is an enormous downgrade at present.

i see these 3 as a replacement on the bottom pairing.

If Brodie needs to stay on the Right and it drops Holl down a spot, then its Olesiak/Savard/Larsson as a LHD target and we become strong on the Right, and super weak on the left.

for Reilly we'd need to get an NHL ready LHD with similar upside, and not sure who that could be as a target these days, and cap ...Adam Fox was a great example of grabbing an NHL ready player who couldnt win a spot, and he only cost a 2nd and 3rd, so, you'd think Reilly could bring back a better prospect.

Muzzin doesnt play tough anymore which was one of his key assets, and often gets caught flat footed, so, if he's not already set in the zone and has to backtrack, he's a liability, and not getting any younger.
He should be on the bottom pairing if returning next season, which is likely the case, and these other guys still play a physical game at least, and know their roles.

 

[BlueForever75]

Hopefully Galchenyuk signs cheap as a thank you to the Leafs for giving him a chance

Galchenyuk: 1x 1.25M
Simmonds: 1x 1M
Spezza: 1x 850K
Hyman: 5x 4M
Bogosian: 1x 850K
Dreidger/Rittich: 2x (2-3M)

Simmonds does not warrant more money then Bogo and Spezza. If resigned he comes back at the vet minimum.