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Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2022 - Off-season

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thusk said:
Age 33 to 36 his remaining contract... not so bad (35 is the age gio won his norris) and 36 the age hainsey joined the leafs...

6.75M for a top 2 D better than anybody in leafs line up defensive side (not even close)...

I dont see where is the problem



Maybe if gm want to upgrade their team, trust me they will find a way to clear cap space...

Maybe pittsburg, not impossible
Click to expand...

There are occasional outliers, yes. I can bring up outliers the other way - like PK Subban and Karlsson going from Norris dmen to looking significantly diminished at 30.

In this case, it is most informative to look at a typical aging charts. As you can see, players begin to decline rapidly in their early 30s.

hockey-graphs.com

A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)

How do NHL players age? When do they peak? How quickly do they decline? Questions about player aging in the NHL have been debated for years, and an incredible amount of research has already been do…
hockey-graphs.com hockey-graphs.com
 
Been playing around with a revamp in my mind. Do I think it would happen? No (at least not with Dubas at the helm). Do I think it’s what the team needs? Yes - inject some life into that lineup. Finally, is it realistic? Meh, I think the values are pretty fair (probably tilted against the leafs) and the rational is legitimate. I guess these could be tinkered with a bit (maybe to balance the cap), but this is the basis.

First blockbuster:

to PHI --- Marner, Engvall, 25th overall
to TOR --- Konecny, Laughton, 5th overall

Rational: Philly aren’t looking to rebuild and Fletcher is reportedly swinging for the fences to reinvigorate their desolate offence. In this they get a premier top 5 offensive player. Why do the leafs do it? Shake things up mostly and make it known that the lack of results is unacceptable – Marner is the one to go. Plus it spreads the cap out with nearly 12 mil going out and only 8.5 mil coming in. Finally, I really don’t think Konecny is that much of a downgrade and he brings heart-on-your-sleeve play which is invaluable...would go through a wall to win type of player. Laughton is a stud 3rd line center too and another character player. This one is definitely tilted towards Philly, maybe it could be changed around or have the leafs keep their first and/or Philly add a prospect, but this is the basis.

Second Blockbuster.

To FLA --- Chychrun, Kerfoot
to ARI --- 5th overall, Sandin
to TOR --- Bennett, Weeger, Crouse

Arizona is looking to rebuild, Florida need to shake things up like we do, leafs need more heart and soul. Again, leafs are overpaying here but we’re looking at the end result...maybe a prospect or two could come the leafs way (or have Arizona retain some of Bennetts/Crouse contract if they can do that).

Lineup:

Bunting-Matthews-Nylander
Crouse-Tavares-Konecny
Domi-Laughton-Bennet
--------Kampf-Kase

Reilly-Weegar
Muzzin-Barrie
Giordano-Liljegren

Fleury

Out: Marner, Engvall, Kerfoot, and Sandin
In: Konecny, Bennett, Crouse, Laughton, Weegar

Losing Marner is not nothing, but look at that middle 6. We definitely lose the best player, but we become a better team that is FAR more suited for the playoffs and to make a run all the way. Crouse-Tavares-Konecny would be an absolutely dominant line and would probably be the best grinding line in all of hockey. Further, I honestly think Nylander on Matthews wing is pretty well just as good as Marner (look at it as trading Marner for Nylander, and Nylander for Konecny). Finally, that third line is just beautiful too...grit, offence/two-way, and character. There’s so much heart and determination on this team which I know Dubas can’t quantify, but it’s real and I feel like this is a championship team; that top 9 just has it all (could put whoever on the 4th line, prospects, Kase, auditions, penalty killers, whoever)...Oh, and Weegar really rounds out the defence too in my mind. As for goaltending, I don’t think there’s much of a sure thing out there; I would either sign Fleury/Kuemper or trade futures for Gibson. I haven't actually calculated it, but I think the cap is pretty close.
 
Last edited:
Kurtz said:
There are occasional outliers, yes. I can bring up outliers the other way - like PK Subban and Karlsson going from Norris dmen to looking significantly diminished at 30.

In this case, it is most informative to look at a typical aging charts. As you can see, players begin to decline rapidly in their early 30s.

hockey-graphs.com

A New Look at Aging Curves for NHL Skaters (part 1)

How do NHL players age? When do they peak? How quickly do they decline? Questions about player aging in the NHL have been debated for years, and an incredible amount of research has already been do…
hockey-graphs.com hockey-graphs.com
Click to expand...

Subban needed to play with markov in Mtl to look good and needed to play with ekholm with nashville... he was probably the most overrated dman of last decade.

Karlsson = injuries...he cant stay healthy
 
The Podium said:
Lou decided not to sign Nylander the same year as Ehlers after they posted a near identical season.

Willy bet on himself and repeated the same season. Even Pasta signed after only 1 year of top line production.

As for the prorated BS, I don’t really see why anyone cares.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure what your point is. unless you think I am trying to make this into a Lou vs Kyle thing. The issue isn't what Lou did, or even why Kyle did because we don't know that things play out any differently with any other GM. What we do know that Willy played hardball and sat out when he had zero leverage and as a pending UFA he will have no risk at all unless the club says next summer "here is our number for an extension and you need to take it or you are headed for the desert". That's his history and that's the threat no matter who the GM is.

If prorated is BS then lets just call it $2.3M for games he didn't play. Its real money that he received for nothing so he isn't $6.9 x 6 if he doesn't play 6. If he is paid $6.9 per but not for the time sat out then his cap hit is closer to $6.5M. Just because inflation makes the deal look better over time doesn't mean it was market value when it was signed. His comps played full seasons for their money and he didn't. You can disregard that and I can't. Agree to disagree.
 
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Stephen said:
$6.7 million is a pure no go for McDonagh. Let them stew in cap hell with physically beat up players on a past championship run core.
Click to expand...
It would probably be a big ticket for many a contender to take on as a pure salary dump. I figure there'd at least be some kind of a trade market though for a Cup winning blueliner (x2).
 
Jackothy said:
Been playing around with a revamp in my mind. Do I think it would happen? No (at least not with Dubas at the helm). Do I think it’s what the team needs? Yes - inject some life into that lineup. Finally, is it realistic? Meh, I think the values are pretty fair (probably tilted against the leafs) and the rational is legitimate. I guess these could be tinkered with a bit (maybe to balance the cap), but this is the basis.

First blockbuster:

to PHI --- Marner, Engvall, 25th overall
to TOR --- Konecny, Laughton, 5th overall

Rational: Philly aren’t looking to rebuild and Fletcher is reportedly swinging for the fences to reinvigorate their desolate offence. In this they get a premier top 5 offensive player. Why do the leafs do it? Shake things up mostly and make it known that the lack of results is unacceptable – Marner is the one to go. Plus it spreads the cap out with nearly 12 mil going out and only 8.5 mil coming in. Finally, I really don’t think Konecny is that much of a downgrade and he brings heart-on-your-sleeve play which is invaluable...would go through a wall to win type of player. Laughton is a stud 3rd line center too and another character player. This one is definitely tilted towards Philly, maybe it could be changed around or have the leafs keep their first and/or Philly add a prospect, but this is the basis.

Second Blockbuster.

To FLA --- Chychrun, Kerfoot
to ARI --- 5th overall, Sandin
to TOR --- Bennett, Weeger, Crouse

Arizona is looking to rebuild, Florida need to shake things up like we do, leafs need more heart and soul. Again, leafs are overpaying here but we’re looking at the end result...maybe a prospect or two could come the leafs way (or have Arizona retain some of Bennetts/Crouse contract if they can do that).

Lineup:

Bunting-Matthews-Nylander
Crouse-Tavares-Konecny
Domi-Laughton-Bennet
--------Kampf-Kase

Reilly-Weegar
Muzzin-Barrie
Giordano-Liljegren

Fleury

Out: Marner, Engvall, Kerfoot, and Sandin
In: Konecny, Bennett, Crouse, Laughton, Weegar

Losing Marner is not nothing, but look at that middle 6. We definitely lose the best player, but we become a better team that is FAR more suited for the playoffs and to make a run all the way. Crouse-Tavares-Konecny would be an absolutely dominant line and would probably be the best grinding line in all of hockey. Further, I honestly think Nylander on Matthews wing is pretty well just as good as Marner (look at it as trading Marner for Nylander, and Nylander for Konecny). Finally, that third line is just beautiful too...grit, offence/two-way, and character. There’s so much heart and determination on this team which I know Dubas can’t quantify, but it’s real and I feel like this is a championship team; that top 9 just has it all (could put whoever on the 4th line, prospects, Kase, auditions, penalty killers, whoever)...Oh, and Weegar really rounds out the defence too in my mind. As for goaltending, I don’t think there’s much of a sure thing out there; I would either sign Fleury/Kuemper or trade futures for Gibson. I haven't actually calculated it, but I think the cap is pretty close.
Click to expand...
Flyers probably sign gudreau for free.
 
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Jackothy said:
Been playing around with a revamp in my mind. Do I think it would happen? No (at least not with Dubas at the helm). Do I think it’s what the team needs? Yes - inject some life into that lineup. Finally, is it realistic? Meh, I think the values are pretty fair (probably tilted against the leafs) and the rational is legitimate. I guess these could be tinkered with a bit (maybe to balance the cap), but this is the basis.

First blockbuster:

to PHI --- Marner, Engvall, 25th overall
to TOR --- Konecny, Laughton, 5th overall

Rational: Philly aren’t looking to rebuild and Fletcher is reportedly swinging for the fences to reinvigorate their desolate offence. In this they get a premier top 5 offensive player. Why do the leafs do it? Shake things up mostly and make it known that the lack of results is unacceptable – Marner is the one to go. Plus it spreads the cap out with nearly 12 mil going out and only 8.5 mil coming in. Finally, I really don’t think Konecny is that much of a downgrade and he brings heart-on-your-sleeve play which is invaluable...would go through a wall to win type of player. Laughton is a stud 3rd line center too and another character player. This one is definitely tilted towards Philly, maybe it could be changed around or have the leafs keep their first and/or Philly add a prospect, but this is the basis.

Second Blockbuster.

To FLA --- Chychrun, Kerfoot
to ARI --- 5th overall, Sandin
to TOR --- Bennett, Weeger, Crouse

Arizona is looking to rebuild, Florida need to shake things up like we do, leafs need more heart and soul. Again, leafs are overpaying here but we’re looking at the end result...maybe a prospect or two could come the leafs way (or have Arizona retain some of Bennetts/Crouse contract if they can do that).

Lineup:

Bunting-Matthews-Nylander
Crouse-Tavares-Konecny
Domi-Laughton-Bennet
--------Kampf-Kase

Reilly-Weegar
Muzzin-Barrie
Giordano-Liljegren

Fleury

Out: Marner, Engvall, Kerfoot, and Sandin
In: Konecny, Bennett, Crouse, Laughton, Weegar

Losing Marner is not nothing, but look at that middle 6. We definitely lose the best player, but we become a better team that is FAR more suited for the playoffs and to make a run all the way. Crouse-Tavares-Konecny would be an absolutely dominant line and would probably be the best grinding line in all of hockey. Further, I honestly think Nylander on Matthews wing is pretty well just as good as Marner (look at it as trading Marner for Nylander, and Nylander for Konecny). Finally, that third line is just beautiful too...grit, offence/two-way, and character. There’s so much heart and determination on this team which I know Dubas can’t quantify, but it’s real and I feel like this is a championship team; that top 9 just has it all (could put whoever on the 4th line, prospects, Kase, auditions, penalty killers, whoever)...Oh, and Weegar really rounds out the defence too in my mind. As for goaltending, I don’t think there’s much of a sure thing out there; I would either sign Fleury/Kuemper or trade futures for Gibson. I haven't actually calculated it, but I think the cap is pretty close.
Click to expand...
Some of what you suggest looks interesting but if I am losing Marner I need to add Gaudreau. He is the only player that fills that hole and would actually cost less. I am sure the club is too attached to MM to ever do something like that but what an interesting set of circumstances if they could unload Mitch for a mint and sign his doppelganger for cap relief.

I'm not sure how much better a playoff team they are adding guys like Crouse and Konecny who have almost no playoff pedigree on their resumes. It seems like that is banking on what they "might" do if they just got on the right team because they also might not.
 
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Dreakmur said:
Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't see a really tough choice they need to make this season. Bringing back Nick Paul seems obvious. The only decision seems to be whether they move Killorn out or allow Palat to walk as a UFA.
Click to expand...
Brisbois said Tampa wants to keep all their UFA's. Guessing that's why they're trying to trade McDonough now.
 
thusk said:
Subban needed to play with markov in Mtl to look good and needed to play with ekholm with nashville... he was probably the most overrated dman of last decade.

Karlsson = injuries...he cant stay healthy
Click to expand...
Damn didn’t he win the Norris at one point or something??

Anyways hoping to sign forsberg so we can move nylander for crouse and chychrun

Muzzin to LA


LETS GO
 
nuck said:
I'm not sure what your point is. unless you think I am trying to make this into a Lou vs Kyle thing. The issue isn't what Lou did, or even why Kyle did because we don't know that things play out any differently with any other GM. What we do know that Willy played hardball and sat out when he had zero leverage and as a pending UFA he will have no risk at all unless the club says next summer "here is our number for an extension and you need to take it or you are headed for the desert". That's his history and that's the threat no matter who the GM is.

If prorated is BS then lets just call it $2.3M for games he didn't play. Its real money that he received for nothing so he isn't $6.9 x 6 if he doesn't play 6. If he is paid $6.9 per but not for the time sat out then his cap hit is closer to $6.5M. Just because inflation makes the deal look better over time doesn't mean it was market value when it was signed. His comps played full seasons for their money and he didn't. You can disregard that and I can't. Agree to disagree.
Click to expand...

Who is making it a Lou for Kyle debate, Lou was the GM in charge when he was first available to sign after his rookie season; like Ehlers.

You do realize he didn’t get paid for not playing. He still lost out on the money for the months he sat.
 
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The Podium said:
Who is making it a Lou for Kyle debate, Lou was the GM in charge when he was first available to sign after his rookie season; like Ehlers.

You do realize he didn’t get paid for not playing. He still lost out on the money for the months he sat.
Click to expand...
The real money paid is $41.77M so that is the $6.96 x 6 and no deduction. $41.77M over 5 2/3 years would be $7.37M per so if he had lost for time missed it would been based on the $7.37M salary. We arent talking crazy money but its the difference between a deal that looks good when its signed vs one that needs a couple years inflation to get there.
 
Buds17 said:
It would probably be a big ticket for many a contender to take on as a pure salary dump. I figure there'd at least be some kind of a trade market though for a Cup winning blueliner (x2).
Click to expand...

Well, we have that in Jake Muzzin. Same age and cheaper too.
 
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Jackothy said:
Been playing around with a revamp in my mind. Do I think it would happen? No (at least not with Dubas at the helm). Do I think it’s what the team needs? Yes - inject some life into that lineup. Finally, is it realistic? Meh, I think the values are pretty fair (probably tilted against the leafs) and the rational is legitimate. I guess these could be tinkered with a bit (maybe to balance the cap), but this is the basis.

First blockbuster:

to PHI --- Marner, Engvall, 25th overall
to TOR --- Konecny, Laughton, 5th overall

Rational: Philly aren’t looking to rebuild and Fletcher is reportedly swinging for the fences to reinvigorate their desolate offence. In this they get a premier top 5 offensive player. Why do the leafs do it? Shake things up mostly and make it known that the lack of results is unacceptable – Marner is the one to go. Plus it spreads the cap out with nearly 12 mil going out and only 8.5 mil coming in. Finally, I really don’t think Konecny is that much of a downgrade and he brings heart-on-your-sleeve play which is invaluable...would go through a wall to win type of player. Laughton is a stud 3rd line center too and another character player. This one is definitely tilted towards Philly, maybe it could be changed around or have the leafs keep their first and/or Philly add a prospect, but this is the basis.

Second Blockbuster.

To FLA --- Chychrun, Kerfoot
to ARI --- 5th overall, Sandin
to TOR --- Bennett, Weeger, Crouse

Arizona is looking to rebuild, Florida need to shake things up like we do, leafs need more heart and soul. Again, leafs are overpaying here but we’re looking at the end result...maybe a prospect or two could come the leafs way (or have Arizona retain some of Bennetts/Crouse contract if they can do that).

Lineup:

Bunting-Matthews-Nylander
Crouse-Tavares-Konecny
Domi-Laughton-Bennet
--------Kampf-Kase

Reilly-Weegar
Muzzin-Barrie
Giordano-Liljegren

Fleury

Out: Marner, Engvall, Kerfoot, and Sandin
In: Konecny, Bennett, Crouse, Laughton, Weegar

Losing Marner is not nothing, but look at that middle 6. We definitely lose the best player, but we become a better team that is FAR more suited for the playoffs and to make a run all the way. Crouse-Tavares-Konecny would be an absolutely dominant line and would probably be the best grinding line in all of hockey. Further, I honestly think Nylander on Matthews wing is pretty well just as good as Marner (look at it as trading Marner for Nylander, and Nylander for Konecny). Finally, that third line is just beautiful too...grit, offence/two-way, and character. There’s so much heart and determination on this team which I know Dubas can’t quantify, but it’s real and I feel like this is a championship team; that top 9 just has it all (could put whoever on the 4th line, prospects, Kase, auditions, penalty killers, whoever)...Oh, and Weegar really rounds out the defence too in my mind. As for goaltending, I don’t think there’s much of a sure thing out there; I would either sign Fleury/Kuemper or trade futures for Gibson. I haven't actually calculated it, but I think the cap is pretty close.
Click to expand...
:facepalm:
 
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Stephen said:
$6.7 million is a pure no go for McDonagh. Let them stew in cap hell with physically beat up players on a past championship run core.
Click to expand...
I think they will gladly stew in cap hell because the results already came twice.

If we won back to back cups I wouldn't give a damn if they gave Engvall 11 mil a year after. I'm good for my lifetime do whatever you want now
 
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thusk said:
Subban needed to play with markov in Mtl to look good and needed to play with ekholm with nashville... he was probably the most overrated dman of last decade.

Karlsson = injuries...he cant stay healthy
Click to expand...

Injuries are a major part of the age-related decline. As guys age, they get injured more frequently. Look at our very own Jake Muzzin - he was an iron man in his 20s, but as soon as he turned 30 injuries started piling up. That aggregated wear and tear is really what causes such rapid decline in players over 30.
 
I'd take Crouse/Marchment if it is a reasonable caphit. Especially Crouse looks like he'd fit in perfectly on either Matthew's or Tavares wing.

Sign Deslauriers to replace Simmonds/Clifford.

Need an upgrade on lyubushkin on the backend. Maybe Manson? Zadorov? Not sure who would fit this.

Of course sorting out Goaltending is top priority. I like the Fleury+Blackwood tandem idea.
 
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