Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2022 - Off-season

[Menzinger]

Why good news? Nylander did not think his actual comps were comparable as an RFA so no reason to think he won't be a harder re-sign on the next deal when the club has no leverage. There are some other FAs coming to help better establish the market but he was $1M more than Forsberg last time around so we will see where FF's new deal goes. When guys like Hertl with one 70pt season become $8M x 8 players what has to be going through Willie's mind? "I just wanted what I could get" remember? That's who he is, and it doesn't make him a bad guy but it does make him predictable.

His agent is certainly a tough negotiator, but his ultimate rfa deal was right in line with his main comparables of the cap era in terms of post elc deals. I don't think Nylanders position was any more radical than most in his position - their counter offer to the Leafs was predicably high, and they eventually ended up lowering it considerably. Happens with every negotiation

I'd expect he'll end up with more than Fiala by a bit (and a rising cap will also bring up the raw aav number) but he likely won't get too much more relatively speaking.

 

[hamzarocks]

Goalies, especially unproven backups, are usually worth very little in a trade. Nevermind the fact that Adin Hill has never played more than 25 games in the NHL and is a pending UFA. Why would you trade our most tradable asset, who has a very favourable contract, for an unproven backup?.

Campbell was worth 2 3rds at a similar stage when we made the deal for him

Hill is pretty similar boat as Campbell in 2020

Keefoot is worth more than 2 3rds so Hill + 3rd for kerfoot would be fair value imo

 

[Menzinger]

Point was the Clarkson had no history of being a 30 goal scorer.

Marchment has no history of being a .87 PPG player not even in the AHL, although he had a streak in the 2019-2020 in a 24 game season of .75 PPG, but ended that season at .67 in the AHL at age 24.

Maybe he is a Justin Holl of forwards, so because Holl was played in the top 4 do you give him a $4mm a year over 4 years?

Time will tell, but less than one year of this type of production is probably going to be a large win or loss.

He is probably a good candidate for some team who can carry a mistake for the duration of the deal.

I think a team will take a gamble on him for like 3x3 and probably regret it a bit.

His production rate has nowhere to go but down given his historical track record doesn't really suggest he's an offensive guy at that level. But he's still probably capable of playing somewhere in the top 9.

Very curious to see how he performs this coming season regardless of where he ends up

 

[Americanadian]

I think a team will take a gamble on him for like 3x3 and probably regret it a bit.

His production rate has nowhere to go but down given his historical track record doesn't really suggest he's an offensive guy at that level. But he's still probably capable of playing somewhere in the top 9.

Very curious to see how he performs this coming season regardless of where he ends up

I've been his biggest advocate in this board. I think his value lies in how unique he is. If he can put up 0.5 P/G while playing to the defensive level that he did this past season and providing 10 hits/60 and 1-2 fights/season he would be a steal at 3-4M. You can't find players in that mould in FA.

 

[The Podium]

Why good news? Nylander did not think his actual comps were comparable as an RFA so no reason to think he won't be a harder re-sign on the next deal when the club has no leverage. There are some other FAs coming to help better establish the market but he was $1M more than Forsberg last time around so we will see where FF's new deal goes. When guys like Hertl with one 70pt season become $8M x 8 players what has to be going through Willie's mind? "I just wanted what I could get" remember? That's who he is, and it doesn't make him a bad guy but it does make him predictable.

Who were his comps as an RFA?

Pastrnak 6 years x 8.89 cap hit %
Nylander 6 years x 8.76 cap hit %
Ehlers 7 years x 8 cap hit %

 

[hamzarocks]

Who were his comps as an RFA?

Pastrnak 6 years x 8.89 cap hit %
Nylander 6 years x 8.76 cap hit %
Ehlers 7 years x 8 cap hit %

*5.67 years which was really 5 considering he was a key reason for the 2019 failure along with Kadri and JT

Nylander wasted a whole season for himself and the leafs by being greedy, sitting out and not being ready to play at a high level when he returned

He's redeemed himself since so uts fine but he was not a good signing after his first year

 

[nuck]

His agent is certainly a tough negotiator, but his ultimate rfa deal was right in line with his main comparables of the cap era in terms of post elc deals. I don't think Nylanders position was any more radical than most in his position - their counter offer to the Leafs was predictably high, and they eventually ended up lowering it considerably. Happens with every negotiation

I'd expect he'll end up with more than Fiala by a bit (and a rising cap will also bring up the raw aav number) but he likely won't get too much more relatively speaking.

We have beaten up who his main comparables were but the big thing is he sat out a third of the season to make his point in spite of the fact it could have cost him big money so that seems kind of aggressive to me. As a pending UFA he can just keep playing and earning until they either accept his range or he walks. I hope I'm wrong. Maybe the slagging he took after the last deal is something he wants to avoid.

 

[Americanadian]

Who were his comps as an RFA?

Pastrnak 6 years x 8.89 cap hit %
Nylander 6 years x 8.76 cap hit %
Ehlers 7 years x 8 cap hit %

In the 2 years prior there was:

Gaudreau 6x9.25%
Huberdeau 6x8.08% (3rd contract)
Forsberg 6x8.22%

 

[The Podium]

*5.67 years which was really 5 considering he was a key reason for the 2019 failure along with Kadri and JT

Nylander wasted a whole season for himself and the leafs by being greedy, sitting out and not being ready to play at a high level when he returned

He's redeemed himself since so uts fine but he was not a good signing after his first year

Who care about year 1, you just admitted it’s a good contract…

 

[Menzinger]

We have beaten up who his main comparables were but the big thing is he sat out a third of the season to make his point in spite of the fact it could have cost him big money so that seems kind of aggressive to me. As a pending UFA he can just keep playing and earning until they either accept his range or he walks. I hope I'm wrong. Maybe the slagging he took after the last deal is something he wants to avoid.

6 years between contracts is definitely time for a person to potentially reflect/change. He either wants to stay or doesn't and likely by next summer the agent will have an understanding of what his next contract range will be. Imo if management remains interested in retaining him, I don't think there will be too much of a struggle - either a compromise is found quickly or it's clear they have different values and part ways.

 

[The Podium]

6 years between contracts is definitely time for a person to potentially reflect/change. He either wants to stay or doesn't and likely by next summer the agent will have an understanding of what his next contract range will be. Imo if management remains interested in retaining him, I don't think there will be too much of a struggle - either a compromise is found quickly or it's clear they have different values and part ways.

Another thing to consider, JT is up the following year. So fitting his cap hit, whatever it may be, will only be tight for a year.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Every NHL team's toughest free agent decision: Gaudreau, Kuemper, Laine, Malkin, more

The NHL offseason is upon us, and with it, there are tough decisions to be made. Here's each team's most difficult free-agent situation.

theathletic.com

Toronto Maple Leafs

The Leafs would like to bring back rugged right defenseman Ilya Lyubushkin, but cap considerations are going to come into play. If Lyubushkin can hit a home run on the open market, he’ll be gone. But how much can Toronto afford to spend to keep some grit on their back end?

— James Mirtle

 

[nuck]

Who were his comps as an RFA?

Pastrnak 6 years x 8.89 cap hit %
Nylander 6 years x 8.76 cap hit %
Ehlers 7 years x 8 cap hit %

He missed 1/3 of year one but the salary wasn't prorated so he got paid almost $400k above the cap hit% if you spread the money over 6 years. That puts him well above Pasta. Ehlers was almost a statistical twin and took a big chunk less and gave up another year of UFA. Pasta scored 34g 36a in 75 games vs Willies 20g 41a in 82 games so Pastrnak was coming off a measurably better season. WNs best comps for age and production were Ehlers 8% and Forsberg 8.22% and neither of these guys got the same front loading. His camp negotiated tough and I doubt Dubas wants to go through that ringer again. He will trade Willie before risking going into that final year.

 

[Menzinger]

Every NHL team's toughest free agent decision: Gaudreau, Kuemper, Laine, Malkin, more

The NHL offseason is upon us, and with it, there are tough decisions to be made. Here's each team's most difficult free-agent situation.

theathletic.com

Toronto Maple Leafs

The Leafs would like to bring back rugged right defenseman Ilya Lyubushkin, but cap considerations are going to come into play. If Lyubushkin can hit a home run on the open market, he’ll be gone. But how much can Toronto afford to spend to keep some grit on their back end?

— James Mirtle

Ideally if they move out Holl, they can shift some of that money to Lyubushkin.

 

[The Podium]

He missed 1/3 of year one but the salary wasn't prorated so he got paid almost $400k above the cap hit% if you spread the money over 6 years. That puts him well above Pasta. Ehlers was almost a statistical twin and took a big chunk less and gave up another year of UFA. Pasta scored 34g 36a in 75 games vs Willies 20g 41a in 82 games so Pastrnak was coming off a measurably better season. WNs best comps for age and production were Ehlers 8% and Forsberg 8.22% and neither of these guys got the same front loading. His camp negotiated tough and I doubt Dubas wants to go through that ringer again. He will trade Willie before risking going into that final year.

Lou decided not to sign Nylander the same year as Ehlers after they posted a near identical season.

Willy bet on himself and repeated the same season. Even Pasta signed after only 1 year of top line production.

As for the prorated BS, I don’t really see why anyone cares.

 

[Menzinger]

Not a target for the Leafs, but could impact the market.

 

[Martin Skoula]

Not a target for the Leafs, but could impact the market.

Obviously Muzzin is a step down from McDonagh (if they're both healthy) but his contract is also a lot less concerning especially on term. I can't see contenders biting on either player, but young rebuilding defenses like LA make sense.

 

[TMLAM34]

Not a target for the Leafs, but could impact the market.

Probably won’t have too many teams interested in that contract.

 

[hamzarocks]

Who care about year 1, you just admitted it’s a good contract…

Thats one year of the matthews era wasted

I'll be more content with a down year by a key player incentive we have 34 signed long-term

We can't be affording to blow our shots at the cup. 43, and 88 cost us in 2019

Hopefully he takes a discount next time around instead of chasing every last dollar.

 

[thusk]

Probably won’t have too many teams interested in thay
Probably won’t have too many teams interested in that contract.

A top 2 D among who certainly in top 10 of best D defensive side of the puck...

I pretty sure than a guy like mcdonaugh will draw a lot more interest than a player like fiala

 

[Kurtz]

A top 2 D among who certainly in top 10 of best D defensive side of the puck...

I pretty sure than a guy like mcdonaugh will draw a lot more interest than a player like fiala

Have you looked at his age and contract?

 

[Jozay]

6.75 x 4 left on McDonaughs contract. I imagine the Lightning want out before nobody will take that contract.

 

[mydnyte]

looking at RFA's and caps, i'm wondering if Kahkonen could be available i cant see SJ keeping both him and Hill and Reimer, and I want no part of Reimer, but, SJ needs Reimer as the solid vet to mentor one of these 2 guys.
SJ doesnt have much cap space, and has a ton of RFA's to resign, though none stand out as big $$ guys, but, 3 deep in net with 2 mid 20's NHL goalies backing up Reimer doesnt likely work

 

[Dreakmur]

Not a target for the Leafs, but could impact the market.

Maybe I'm missing something, but I don't see a really tough choice they need to make this season. Bringing back Nick Paul seems obvious. The only decision seems to be whether they move Killorn out or allow Palat to walk as a UFA.

 

[ULF_55]

A top 2 D among who certainly in top 10 of best D defensive side of the puck...

I pretty sure than a guy like mcdonaugh will draw a lot more interest than a player like fiala

He'll want to go to a contender, and that contender will have to have space.

Pittsburgh moves from Letang to McDonagh?