Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2022 - Off-season

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1. I disagree on every trade being a loss. As a rule of thumb for me if a trade is unanimously loved on the Leafs board it's probably a trade the opposing team wouldn't accept.

2. Hill outperformed Campbell in GSAx last year and has outperformed Campbell in GSAx/60 since Campbell's been a Leaf. Wedgewood also outperformed Campbell last year and throughout his entire Leafs tenure.


Sure. Sounds like we're both in agreement that they aren't in a rush to shed Varlamov's cap hit.

Re: 1 above, if it is universal it is likely a poor trade for the Leafs as there are moderates here. If even the moderates are panning it then is it likely bad.

Yeah, there are always NHL bodies that can be signed.
There are 97 UFA defenders, from good to I can tie my own skates.
 
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I suppose I value Kerfoot, who is also an impending UFA, less than you do. I personally think Hill is a good bet based on his underlying numbers and San Jose has incentive to move him due to their goalie situation. Campbell's career high in games was 31 before this season.

Who do you think is a realistic option in goal for the Leafs next year?

A 50 point versatile position forward who is owed 750k in real dollars after his signing bonus is paid? With teams struggling financially, that nearly 3 mill difference in pay Vs cap is definitely valuable for a productive player.

I think if the leafs gamble on goaltending, they target Blackwood. Young, big athletic goalie, who has some history of productivity in a starters role on a weak team and has RFA control after expiry. Support him with a 1 year deal on a reliable starter like MAF.
 
A 50 point versatile position forward who is owed 750k in real dollars after his signing bonus is paid? With teams struggling financially, that nearly 3 mill difference in pay Vs cap is definitely valuable for a productive player.

I think if the leafs gamble on goaltending, they target Blackwood. Young, big athletic goalie, who has some history of productivity in a starters role on a weak team and has RFA control after expiry. Support him with a 1 year deal on a reliable starter like MAF.
I don't see Kerfoot getting above a 3rd round pick in trade. We'll see what happens with him.

Hill is 7 months older than Blackwood, he's bigger and cheaper. Blackwood is a fine target but he's actually been bad the last 2 years. Hill has outperformed him each of the last 2 years in GSAx and was almost identical in GSAx/60 in 2019-20. I do like that he's RFA on expiration though.

I also like Fleury but don't see him coming here. I'd gladly be wrong. The other established starters on the market are Kuemper and maybe Husso. I'd imagine Fleury stays in MIN, Kuemper in COL and Husso to EDM. Campbell is obviously still an option but his reported salary demands are now exceeding 6M which is ridiculous.
 
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I don't see Kerfoot getting above a 3rd round pick in trade. We'll see what happens with him.

Hill is 7 months older than Blackwood, he's bigger and cheaper. Blackwood is a fine target but he's actually been bad the last 2 years. Hill has outperformed him each of the last 2 years in GSAx and was almost identical in GSAx/60 in 2019-20. I do like that he's RFA on expiration though.

I also like Fleury but don't see him coming here. I'd gladly be wrong. The other established starters on the market are Kuemper and maybe Husso. I'd imagine Fleury stays in MIN, Kuemper in COL and Husso to EDM. Campbell is obviously still an option but his reported salary demands are now exceeding 6M which is ridiculous.
If Kapanen got a mid 1st and a B level prospect (at the time), Kerfoot will definitely get more than just a 3rd…
 
Todays fantasy:


Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Nylander - Tavares - Nichushkin
Engvall - Roy - Robertson
Katchouk - Kampf - Anderson
54.94

Rielly - Brodie
Muzzin - Liljegren
Giordano - Myers
21.33

Varlamov
Samsonov
5

Salary Cap: 81.45
Remaining Salary Cap: 1.05



UFA Signings:
Valeri Nichushkin - 5 years @ 5 million per
Philippe Myers - 1 year @ 1 million

Re-Signings:
Pierre Engvall - 3 years @ 1.75 million per
Nicolas Roy - 3 years @ 3.5 million per
Ilya Samsonov - 2 years @ 2 million per


To Toronto: Nicolas Roy
To Vegas: Rasmus Sandin + Denis Malgin (rights)

To Toronto: Boris Katchouk
To Chicago: Petr Mrazek + Nicholas Abruzzese

To Toronto: Ilya Samsonov
To Washington: Justin Holl + Erik Kallgren

To Toronto: Semyon Varlamov (2 million retained)
To Islanders: Alex Steeves + 2024 2nd Round Pick
 
If Kapanen got a mid 1st and a B level prospect (at the time), Kerfoot will definitely get more than just a 3rd…
I think they have much differing value. Kapanen had perceived upside - he was traded at 24 and had a 20 goal season under his belt. He was/is seen as one of the fastest skaters in the NHL. He had 2 years remaining at 3.2M and RFA on expiration - so a minimum of 3 years of control whereas Kerfoot has 1.

I hope Kerfoot gets dealt this off season just so we can see where his value truly lies.
 
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So I've seen this a couple of places, so I'm just reporting it, but I'm not a fan of it.

Will to LA
Quick to TO
21/22 season 46 appearances 23 wins 13 losses 9 OT 2.59GAA .910 SV%
1 year remaining at 5.8m
Leafs realize a cap savings of 1.2m

In fact I'd be pissed if they off loaded Will for that return alone, sure I'll grant you that I'm not Willies biggest fan, but giving him up for an oft injured 36 yr old turning 37 in December goaltender, even if there is a cap savings for the Leafs is just poor asset management and does nothing IMO to move the needle in the right direction.

I wouldn't even do this if LA held back 2.3m which would give the Leafs 3.5m in cap space!

That said, if LA was willing to give up the Big Q in the deal and take Kerfoot back than I'd have some real thinking to do.
 
Valeri Nichushkin - 5 years @ 5 million per

To Toronto: Boris Katchouk
To Chicago: Petr Mrazek + Nicholas Abruzzese

Why does Nichushkin take a discount over his projected market rate (6.3M) to come to Toronto? Colorado could easily re-sign him at 6.3M.

I don't see why Chicago downgrades from Katchouk to Abruzzese and takes on Mrazek.
 
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There aren’t many feasible options out there. Hoping for a pie in the sky big fish is bound to lead to disappointment
I think Dubas will need to go big, but there definitely isn’t many options. Varlamov seems like the best option out there that won’t break the bank and we’d potentially be able to get the Islanders to retain a bit of his salary. By the sounds of it, Campbell is heading to Jersey and Husso to Edmonton.
 
I think Duclair is a good trade and stash candidate.

Florida has some good rookies on the roster so they might not want to use LTIR.
 
If Kapanen got a mid 1st and a B level prospect (at the time), Kerfoot will definitely get more than just a 3rd…

Rutherford was in love with Kappy. If you can find a GM that loves small, soft, speedy, somewhat skilled forwards and get them to overpay because he is owed league minimum in real dollars, we are golden.
 
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There aren’t many feasible options out there. Hoping for a pie in the sky big fish is bound to lead to disappointment

If Leafs are going to $5mm * 4-5 years then I think there are options, including Campbell.

DeSmith, Husso, Campbell.

If they're willing to risk it for players who look to have fallen off, but some are blaming the team, like Gibson, why not go after cheaper versions of the same excuse, example Martin Jones.

If you give an excuse for player X, you really should give them same excuse to player Y when their situation is similar. "He'd be good if he was on a good team." Flyers

And if one hope and prayer is costing 6.5 for 5 years , and the other 2.5 which hope and prayer for 2 years...
 
Why does Nichushkin take a discount over his projected market rate (6.3M) to come to Toronto? Colorado could easily re-sign him at 6.3M.

I don't see why Chicago downgrades from Katchouk to Abruzzese and takes on Mrazek.

One year wonders shouldn't be landing long term deals based on that one year, their career should be a consideration.

Nichushkin has never scored like this before.

One year late bloomers in contract years are huge risks.

Love him on the Leafs, but not sure who he is (is he a 10-15 goal guy or the 25 goal guy).
Wanted him for years.
 
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If Leafs are going to $5mm * 4-5 years then I think there are options, including Campbell.

DeSmith, Husso, Campbell.

If they're willing to risk it for players who look to have fallen off, but some are blaming the team, like Gibson, why not go after cheaper versions of the same excuse, example Martin Jones.

If you give an excuse for player X, you really should give them same excuse to player Y when their situation is similar. "He'd be good if he was on a good team." Flyers

And if one hope and prayer is costing 6.5 for 5 years , and the other 2.5 which hope and prayer for 2 years...
DeSmith would be a fine option and won't cost 5M. He's projected to get 2.7M on EvolvingHockey. He was arrested in college for assaulting his girl friend (link). I can't find any evidence of him being charged but the Leafs usually stay away from this stuff.

Husso is a good option in the 4-5M range. He reminds me of Ullmark last year but less of a track record. It sounds like the Oilers are going to overpay for him.

Martin Jones has been BAD for 4 years now. San Jose went to conference final in 2018-19 (therefore not a bad team) and he posted a .896 SV% over 62 games.
 
One year wonders shouldn't be landing long term deals based on that one year, their career should be a consideration.

Nichushkin has never scored like this before.

One year late bloomers in contract years are huge risks.

Love him on the Leafs, but not sure who he is (is he a 10-15 goal guy or the 25 goal guy).
Wanted him for years.
Cough *Marchment* cough......
 
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