Kerfoot's actual salary next season is 750K. I could see something like Murray (50% retained) + Brown (30% retained) for Kerfoot.
In terms of real dollars, Ottawa goes from having to pay 14M (buyout cost of Murray + 4M to Brown) to having to pay ~9.45M, and swap pending UFA Brown for pending UFA Kerfoot, who are similar calibre players. So their roster stays at a similar level, they save a solid chunk of cash, but they also eat some caphits (though they're unlikely to be at the cap anyway).
Leafs on the otherhand get Murray at 2 years X 3.125M caphit and Brown at 1 year X 2.5M caphit. Murray is a risk, because if he plays at his ~0.895 level from most of the last few years, then we're paying tandem level money to a guy who is below backup level. But we get to benefit from a year of cheaper Connor Brown. In a typical year, I think we still wouldn't do it. But given the thin goaltending options, I think it's worth a roll of the dice (though I'd hope we're bringing in another guy like Talbot to be paired with Murray).