Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2022 - Off-season

[kb]

Why people keep mentioning Brown is....well.....kinda idiotic. What possible sweetness is there for a pending UFA who won't be in the future plans?

Come on guys, think with your head, not your heart.

 

[LaPlante94]

Matt Murray is so weird. I remember watching him for a stretch last season where he legit looked like a top starting goalie in the league. Idk if it's the injuries or not but he just isn't consistent it seems. Also, someone posted his numbers on the road compared to home and idk why that is. Maybe playing behind our team would help that but I don't want him at his full price if he can't stay healthy.

 

[nuck]

At 50% retained, he's got just a 3.125 cap hit. Even if he's your back-up, that's an overpayment of like 1 to 1.5 million bucks. For a significant addition, that's very worth it.

As long as the 1 to 1.5 doesn't affect other options I completely agree. Its only 2 years so that doesn't collide with any big resignings but it cuts into your #1 guy budget for next season. If they had snagged Fleury at $3.5 it works but since Holtby is wrecked they have no solid UFA option now. They might need to buy some retention on the #1 they do add so that eats into their sweetener and they are still left hoping Murray can turn back the clock to be of real value. Or they can aim low for a guy like Talbot who probably wouldn't cost that much but is he the guy to take them to the promised land?

 

[Sypher04]

Why people keep mentioning Brown is....well.....kinda idiotic. What possible sweetness is there for a pending UFA who won't be in the future plans?

Come on guys, think with your head, not your heart.

There is still value it’s just short lived. I don’t think it should be option 1, but Brown as a target isn’t the worst thing we could do. I think is name largely comes up because it was rumoured they were going to potentially move him

 

[LaPlante94]

This situation is interesting. Never thought that we would be discussing Leafs adding Matt Murray. Will be hell of a season to watch from goaltending perspective. Red Wings has a gamble, but they're rebuilding. Avs will gamble, though as cup winners it's easier.

Who we will tie our contending hopes and who will be the guy Dubas bet on his career here. If it's Murray, it will be interesting and terrifying.

I'm not gonna lie, I always felt like Murray was gonna be a Leaf the day we hired Dubas. Him and Senyshyn but I just liked watching Senyshyn a bit back when he was on the Soo so that was just a personal preference at the time. I think Senyshyn is on the Senators/Belleville now too so who knows.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Why people keep mentioning Brown is....well.....kinda idiotic. What possible sweetness is there for a pending UFA who won't be in the future plans?

Come on guys, think with your head, not your heart.

I disagree with KB most of the time but as much as I have a soft spot for Brownie, it's a 1 year rental essentially.

Aim for Ridley Greig or Artem Zub (also a UFA but 26, RD perfect for us, we could extend).

Or just a 1st round pick....it's a decent currency for us or depending on the time of the year could allow us to use our own as currency.

 

[Rude Dog]

Leafs the front runner eh? Must be a very long line of one.

 

[Seath The Scaleless]

I would swing for the fences and go after Josh Norris.
Even at 3.1, Murray has big negative value and could only be counted as the lesser half of a platoon.

Alex Kerfoot (after his bonus is paid, leaving him with $750 000)
For
Murray (50% retained)
Josh Norris

This would allow us to potentially move Tavares to left wing soon (if Norris keeps developing as he has). Norris is a solid all around center. Kerfoot will be quite useful for Ottawa as a center/left wing at $750 000. Helps with their financial woes a lot. Don’t have to worry about the big signing bonus that Norris will be getting soon too.

If Ottawa thinks it too much, just walk away. They are desperate. Not us. No one needs Matt Murray….. at any salary.

Norris would be too massive of a sweetener. Don't see Ottawa doing that unless they get a solid prospect in return

 

[WTFMAN99]

Norris would be too massive of a sweetener. Don't see Ottawa doing that unless they get a solid prospect in return

I'd love Norris, but he's one of the few untouchables I imagine.

 

[axlrose87]

Norris would be too massive of a sweetener. Don't see Ottawa doing that unless they get a solid prospect in return

Ya, you’re probably right….. but I would still do it.
All these other guys being mentioned simply aren’t worth the burden.
Formenton, zub, brown, Grieg…… none of these guys really move the needle.
If Ottawa isn’t moving, let them buy him out. Than sign him to a one year, cheap, prove it contract.

 

[WestCoastLeafs]

If Ottawa is willing to retain 50% AND add a sweetener, I'd be for involving a third team. The third team gets sweetener and retains another 25% of contract. We end up with Murray at 1.5625M, leaving enough money to sign a 1A. What I really like about this is it becomes high upside low risk.

Best case scenario: Murray regains form and becomes a very cheap 1A/1B for 2 years.

Worst case scenario: Murray is utter trash but only costs a few 100K to bury.

Hypothetical trade:

Ottawa: retains 50%, gets "future considerations"

Team C: retains 25%, gets Ottawa 4th, Kerfoot

Leafs: get Murray @ 1.6M, Ottawa 2nd.

Team C can move Kerfoot for at least a 2nd at TDL, giving them a nice return for retaining 1.6/yr for 2 years. (Kerfoot also basically neutralizes their real dollar investment)

Leafs get a cheap Murray plus an early 2nd that is right in Dubas' wheelhouse. They lose Kerfoot but have lots of cap room

 

[kb]

There is still value it’s just short lived. I don’t think it should be option 1, but Brown as a target isn’t the worst thing we could do. I think is name largely comes up because it was rumoured they were going to potentially move him

But that is not a sweetener by any stretch is my point. He's a pending UFA who won't be re-upped. The sweetener will be gone before the issue that needed sweetening in the first place is. lol

 

[deprw]

Why people keep mentioning Brown is....well.....kinda idiotic. What possible sweetness is there for a pending UFA who won't be in the future plans?

Come on guys, think with your head, not your heart.

Only way I want Brown is that we throw in Kerfoot and even the money a bit and we get better sweetener or sweeteners. Brown would be replacing Kerfoot as a player and Kerfoot would add value to Ottawa.

 

[Sypher04]

But that is not a sweetener by any stretch is my point. He's a pending UFA who won't be re-upped. The sweetener will be gone before the issue that needed sweetening in the first place is. lol

It’s not at all my first choice, but having Brown for a year would still be very useful. But yes, it wouldn’t help us long term. It is a sweetener, even if it’s not enough to everyone.

Only way I want Brown is that we throw in Kerfoot and even the money a bit and we get better sweetener or sweeteners. Brown would be replacing Kerfoot as a player and Kerfoot would add value to Ottawa.

I would think Kerfoot goes regardless if we have Brown, whether it’s in the same deal or to a different team. That said, it’d be ideal to get longer term pieces in both deals

 

[SeaOfBlue]

If Ottawa is willing to retain 50% AND add a sweetener, I'd be for involving a third team. The third team gets sweetener and retains another 25% of contract. We end up with Murray at 1.5625M, leaving enough money to sign a 1A. What I really like about this is it becomes high upside low risk.

Best case scenario: Murray regains form and becomes a very cheap 1A/1B for 2 years.

Worst case scenario: Murray is utter trash but only costs a few 100K to bury.

Hypothetical trade:

Ottawa: retains 50%, gets "future considerations"

Team C: retains 25%, gets Ottawa 4th, Kerfoot

Leafs: get Murray @ 1.6M, Ottawa 2nd.

Team C can move Kerfoot for at least a 2nd at TDL, giving them a nice return for retaining 1.6/yr for 2 years. (Kerfoot also basically neutralizes their real dollar investment)

Leafs get a cheap Murray plus an early 2nd that is right in Dubas' wheelhouse. They lose Kerfoot but have lots of cap room

We are not getting enough back considering we are giving up Kerfoot.

 

[CanHeDoIt99]

I think Ottawa will not want to retain 50% - thus I think a 3 way trade makes the most sense here.

Ott retains 25% and send Murray + 2023 2nd to Buffalo.

Buffalo retains 50% and sends Murray to Toronto for future considerations.

Buffalo agrees because Murray won't waive to go there, they get a cap charge for two years and pickup a pick from OTT.

Leafs get Murray at 2.6ish AAV for two years, winning the deal relying on Murray's reluctance to waive to go to any suitors wanting him, Ottawa gets off the contract the way they want to.

 

[Deebo]

I think Ottawa will not want to retain 50% - thus I think a 3 way trade makes the most sense here.

Yeah, I don't think retaining 50% saves them enough over a buyout for them to give up too much value.

 

[Gallagbi]

I think Ottawa will not want to retain 50% - thus I think a 3 way trade makes the most sense here.

Ott retains 25% and send Murray + 2023 2nd to Buffalo.

Buffalo retains 50% and sends Murray to Toronto for future considerations.

Buffalo agrees because Murray won't waive to go there, they get a cap charge for two years and pickup a pick from OTT.

Leafs get Murray at 2.6ish AAV for two years, winning the deal relying on Murray's reluctance to waive to go to any suitors wanting him, Ottawa gets off the contract the way they want to.

50% is 7.5M for Buffalo to retain with the backloaded deal, a 2nd feels light

 

[kb]

Yeah, I don't think retaining 50% saves them enough over a buyout for them to give up too much value.

$2.5 million is $2.5 million.

Plus it would be on their cap for 4 more seasons instead of 2. That's not insignificant.

 

[Nylander88]

I'm actually okay going with Matt Murray as a reclamation project/gamble....if at 50% retained. Id also be working hard to get Formenton thrown in to the deal as the real sweetener

 

[CanHeDoIt99]

50% is 7.5M for Buffalo to retain with the backloaded deal, a 2nd feels light

The way I was looking at it was Buffalo was taking him at 75% to move up from 16 to 7 which is (based on pick value charts) about a late first's worth of value. Buffalo only takes half the hit they would have in the original deal here (but they also dont get the player or potential upside if he bounces back to be fair) so I just said a 2nd. Perhaps it's more than that - whatever the sweetner is it can be worked out between those two teams though.

 

[Amadeus]

I'm actually okay going with Matt Murray as a reclamation project/gamble....if at 50% retained. Id also be working hard to get Formenton thrown in to the deal as the real sweetener

Honestly, really weary of acquiring Formenton. He was on the WJC team in '18 that is under a microscope now for all that happened. I'm not saying Formenton was involved, but until we know, I don't know if that's a move we should make.

Not sure if I'm right in my thinking process, here.

 

[Gabriel426]

Is Sens planning to buyout Murray, if that’s the case, why should Dubas trade for him to begin with. Unless unless there is a great sweetener, no deal.

 

[Zero1]

If Ottawa doesn’t offer significant assets with maximum retention then just wait until he’s bought out.

He only wants Toronto or Edmonton and Edmonton is going to overpay Campbell.

I rather have Murray @ 900k than at $3.125 mill with a small asset.

 

[Kiwi]

Is Sens planning to buyout Murray, if that’s the case, why should Dubas trade for him to begin with. Unless unless there is a great sweetener, no deal.

It must be a solid asset/assets if talks are intensifying

I doubt this type of favour is cheap