Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 Part XI - Deadline Looming

[dubplatepressure]

I would expect our defense to look like this entering the playoffs:

Rielly - Lyubshkin
Giordano - Brodie
Muzzin - Liljegren

I think we see Justin Holl flipped for a forward, Dermott +2nd for Gio @ 50%, likely giving another team a 4th or something to retain another 50%

And we bench Sandin?

 

[Dekes For Days]

It is true. I looked.

Not sure what you're looking at, because it's not true.

 

[Folignos Helmet]

Why not just keep the team you have? Or if you are getting Larsson for Duszak, then go for that and call it a day?

More successful teams than not actually stay put at the TDL, and even fewer winners really get major impacts from their rental additions where they can justify the cost outside of saying "well at least we won" (i.e. Tampa and Savard last year; Savard did not really do much and they probably could have won without giving up a huge package for him.).

i think those trades give a slightly different complexion to the team without really trading away any future, i don't think Mikheyev, Dermott or Duszak have a future in Toronto so if you can use them to get some expiring assets who give a better mix why not.

I would rather either do nothing, or do something like this than what Florida did.

 

[SprDaVE]

I would expect our defense to look like this entering the playoffs:

Rielly - Lyubshkin
Giordano - Brodie
Muzzin - Liljegren

I think we see Justin Holl flipped for a forward, Dermott +2nd for Gio @ 50%, likely giving another team a 4th or something to retain another 50%

More or less what I would do. I'd keep Holl though.

My guess is that they're more worried about Muzzin than they're letting on and they want a veteran for insurance. That doesn't mean Muzzin would be out until the playoffs, but it's possible.

I love Sandin but like I said before, he can really be high risk/high reward. Last playoffs he had some really rough turnovers/bad games.

 

[Cor]

And we bench Sandin?

He would be the 7th man, yes.

 

[BayStBullies]

How in the world does Giordano "look like trash"? Please explain.

Just people setting in an opinion to whine later that they were right. If Gio turns out alright, they just never bring it up again.

 

[LeafChief]

I'd be happy with Giordano as long as the cost isn't stupid like the Chiarot cost.

I'm talking like a 3rd and a Kokkonen level prospect. Would consider moving Sandin to the right side and filtering in and out with Lyubushkin and Liljegren if we got Giordano and Muzzin comes back.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

i think those trades give a slightly different complexion to the team without really trading away any future, i don't think Mikheyev, Dermott or Duszak have a future in Toronto so if you can use them to get some expiring assets who give a better mix why not.

I would rather either do nothing, or do something like this than what Florida did.

I can see them moving Dermott and Duszak. Don't see them moving Mikheyev, and I doubt Ottawa has interest in Mikheyev anyways.

Subtracting guys from the main roster just to fiddle around the edges is not really something I think the Leafs are considering. They might move Dermott if the right offer comes, both for his sake and to improve the team, but adding 4 brand new players on top of Lyubushkin? Teams don't do that. We might get 2 new guys (pure additions) with one subtraction (Dermott) plus whatever we do in net (i.e. swapping Mrazek for a new guy).

 

[Mugzy97]

He would be the 7th man, yes.

How come you think Bush should play with Rielly on the top pair?

 

[Martin Skoula]

More or less what I would do. I'd keep Holl though.

My guess is that they're more worried about Muzzin than they're letting on and they want a veteran for insurance. That doesn't mean Muzzin would be out until the playoffs, but it's possible.

I love Sandin but like I said before, he can really be high risk/high reward. Last playoffs he had some really rough turnovers/bad games.

I see it as Sandin having extra motivation to prove people wrong. I don't know if a rusty Muzzin is going to be a defensive upgrade especially if the key issue is footspeed. Everyone we're likely to play in the first two rounds has aggressive forechecks, we need puck movement under pressure throughout the lineup.

 

[Cor]

More or less what I would do. I'd keep Holl though.

My guess is that they're more worried about Muzzin than they're letting on and they want a veteran for insurance. That doesn't mean Muzzin would be out until the playoffs, but it's possible.

I love Sandin but like I said before, he can really be high risk/high reward. Last playoffs he had some really rough turnovers/bad games.

I mean, Muzzin is back practicing with the team. Not just skating on his own now. I think it's mainly to allow him to be in a smaller role when he does come back.

 

[Cor]

How come you think Bush should play with Rielly on the top pair?

because he's gotten good results there thus far.

 

[SprDaVE]

I mean, Muzzin is back practicing with the team. Not just skating on his own now. I think it's mainly to allow him to be in a smaller role when he does come back.

They've said yesterday he's taking a step back. We saw how rough it was to replace Muzzin last playoff series, I don't think they want to chance it.

 

[Folignos Helmet]

I can see them moving Dermott and Duszak. Don't see them moving Mikheyev, and I doubt Ottawa has interest in Mikheyev anyways.

Subtracting guys from the main roster just to fiddle around the edges is not really something I think the Leafs are considering. They might move Dermott if the right offer comes, both for his sake and to improve the team, but adding 4 brand new players on top of Lyubushkin? Teams don't do that. We might get 2 new guys (pure additions) with one subtraction (Dermott) plus whatever we do in net (i.e. swapping Mrazek for a new guy).

I hear ya.
but last year we added Hutton, Rittich, Foligno, Nash, Noeson, Suomela, even Vevheleinan, anyway...

My other (relatively) low cost dream would be Braun and Leddy.
Make them the third pair, push the young swedes to the pressbox or spot duty.

 

[Cor]

They've said yesterday he's taking a step back. We saw how rough it was to replace Muzzin last playoff series, I don't think they want to chance it.

Just saw that now actually lol

So yeah, who knows anymore

 

[Cor]

Jake Muzzin being on LTIR the remainder of the season makes sense to the stuff we are hearing of the Leafs may look to add at all 3 positions, and that we are most interested in Lindholm, and so on.

 

[DraftSchmaft]

Are you accounting for regular season vs playoff datasets (ie are you saying that regular season advanced analytics is not correlated to postseason success, or are you saying postseason advanced analytics is not correlated to postseason success?)

Just simply saying the stats popularly used here to denote how successful we are or will be aren't really seen in the playoffs. Some of the past winners aren't even touching 50% xGF 5v5 lol.

Playoffs is complex its not as simple as running through natural stat trick or all this publicly available data and saying look, we're good to go.

Ah I see what you're asking, I'm on my phone when I get on a laptop I'll elaborate

 

[Mickey Marner]

It is true. I looked.

Playoff hockey deserves 20 pages of content to explain so I'm not saying you're wrong either, but its just a simple fact there is no correlation between the ones posted here and cup wins

I have some data. This is how each cup winner ranked league-wide in corsi for %, expected goals for %, goals for %, scoring first and time spent leading. Data is all-situations.

Team	CF%	xGF%	GF%	Score 1	Leading
Detroit	1	1	1	2	1
Pittsburgh	21	9	9	4	9
Chicago	1	1	2	1	1
Boston	13	17	2	12	6
Los Angeles	3	8	9	3	9
Chicago	5	9	1	3	2
Los Angeles	1	7	7	1	13
Chicago	1	8	5	6	13
Pittsburgh	4	1	2	21	10
Pittsburgh	16	6	4	5	7
Washington	27	31	13	21	8
St. Louis	9	6	10	1	4
Tampa Bay	9	6	2	2	3
Tampa Bay	10	7	7	16	6
Average	8.64	8.36	5.29	7.00	6.57

 

[Mugzy97]

because he's gotten good results there thus far.

Fair enough, seems risky to enter playoffs with him slotted into that position but hard to say.

 

[dubplatepressure]

He would be the 7th man, yes.

I mean I'm no coach but benching Sandin doesn't seem like something I care to do. I'd rather play Sandin with Giordano or Gio-Sandin on the 2nd pairing and then have Muzzin-Boosh as our 3rd pairing, with Lilly the 7th. To me Sandin's the more polished between him and Lilly ATM. This last stretch of games before the postseason could change things though.

 

[hobarth]

It really burns me that LL had basically 3 years to fortify the Leafs for the playoffs, he did bring in Andersen but he also brought in Marleau and people think he's brilliant, wow. His trade deadline deals were not inspiring and that has a lot to do with why TO hasn't won a playoffs series since LL was anointed GM.

I believe TO has possibly the worst 4th line amongst playoff contenders, Spezza and Simmonds are slow and basically their line lives in TO's zone when they're on the ice. Could TO use better d-men sure but the 8 to 10 minutes those 2 are on the ice is scary, frightening actually. We've seen a few of the Marlies given a chance with the Leafs in pretty well any role and I don't think any of them impressed. Robertson looks interesting and determined but in 8 games he has 1 goal, 12 shots so right now he's not talented enough for a the top 6 role and not big enough for the bottom 6.

TO's depth that Spezza and Simmonds are supposed to augment isn't there so I expect replacing them with players of value is what Dubie wants to do.

Speaking of depth, TO's 3rd line center, Kampf, has 21 pts in 60 games, Mikheyev has 16 points in 31 games, Engvall 22 points in 56 games, these are not the totals a competitive team needs to be competitive, these are the totals one should expect from a 4th line. Their defensive attributes are much appreciated but teams need to score to be successful, I would say there really isn't any offensive depth from this line.

There's a lot of work to be done so right now I'll be surprised at any success TO might have. The tragedy in this is I think TO's best players are in the right times of their careers to ensure a bright future for a properly constructed team. I don't feel that Dubie is totally to blame, covid has made it very difficult for Dubie to do the things he probably would have done.

 

[Rude Dog]

I think they need to stop bringing in Boyle, Pleks, Marleau, Thornton, Simmonds, Foligno types. It never works outside Spezza. Stick with young guys that want to prove they belong. Think of all the draft picks and money they wasted on the above mentioned. I see Giordano in that same mold. Hope I am wrong. I would much prefer Middleton. Imagine our depth if we had all those draft picks back.

 

[fahad203]

Frankly speaking Jake M should take the year off. So many players tried to make a quick come back only to make it worse

Especially coming back for the playoffs when games become much more physical and intense

 

[Nylanderthal]

It's ironic to see teams like Florida and Carolina succeed with the sort of analytics-driven moneyball approach that we were being sold with the Dubas hiring. Even somewhat at our own expense with guys like Marchment, Andersen, Jarvis and to a lesser extent Verhaeghe.

You can thank sweet Lou for handing Jarvis to Carolina. If there was a better alternative to the deal he was handcuffed to he would’ve made it. Patty had packed up his family sent them back to California and demanded a trade out of town, to either a place who’d buy him out or to the sharks, who were cap strapped.
He also more than made up for it by dishing kapanen off for a pick two slots higher than the one he surrendered and prospect capital that became the teams XD penance

 

[fahad203]

It really burns me that LL had basically 3 years to fortify the Leafs for the playoffs, he did bring in Andersen but he also brought in Marleau and people think he's brilliant, wow. His trade deadline deals were not inspiring and that has a lot to do with why TO hasn't won a playoffs series since LL was anointed GM.

I believe TO has possibly the worst 4th line amongst playoff contenders, Spezza and Simmonds are slow and basically their line lives in TO's zone when they're on the ice. Could TO use better d-men sure but the 8 to 10 minutes those 2 are on the ice is scary, frightening actually. We've seen a few of the Marlies given a chance with the Leafs in pretty well any role and I don't think any of them impressed. Robertson looks interesting and determined but in 8 games he has 1 goal, 12 shots so right now he's not talented enough for a the top 6 role and not big enough for the bottom 6.

TO's depth that Spezza and Simmonds are supposed to augment isn't there so I expect replacing them with players of value is what Dubie wants to do.

Speaking of depth, TO's 3rd line center, Kampf, has 21 pts in 60 games, Mikheyev has 16 points in 31 games, Engvall 22 points in 56 games, these are not the totals a competitive team needs to be competitive, these are the totals one should expect from a 4th line. Their defensive attributes are much appreciated but teams need to score to be successful, I would say there really isn't any offensive depth from this line.

There's a lot of work to be done so right now I'll be surprised at any success TO might have. The tragedy in this is I think TO's best players are in the right times of their careers to ensure a bright future for a properly constructed team. I don't feel that Dubie is totally to blame, covid has made it very difficult for Dubie to do the things he probably would have done.

Hands down the worse 4th line in any of top 16 teams in the league. Spezza and Simmonds are super slow to contribute in any ways. Maybe individually they are ok but really together they add very little value

It doesn't matter who you insert on the wing when 70% of the line by Spezza and Simmonds are slowing you down. They tried Robertsson, Kerfoot, Kase, Engvall. All those players looks good top 9 but not 4th line

We have to come to terms with certain facts. These are the Jason or Wayne from 5 years ago. Simple as that. They are done
That line needs a bit more jest and speed