Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 Part XI - Deadline Looming

[Zookeeper]

What do seversons underlying numbers look like? Any good?

 

[Torontonian]

Not sure why Dubas would have his sights set on a 38 year old rental who isn't overly good and doesn't play a position of need, but at least it can't be worse than the Foligno trade

Because chances are they won’t have to trade a first round pick nor a top prospect for Giordano, Toronto wants to upgrade Holl which I think Giordano is, but at minimal cost, IE 2nd and a C prospect. Pretty sure Seattle wants to do him right and trade him to a team he wants to go to.

Lindholm is the best Dman on the market but your paying a hefty price to acquire him.

 

[Shooter2x]

Gio seems more like a "let's just win a series this year to get that monkey off our back" add. He's not a 16 win addition add for our current blueline. 38 year old going to withstand 4 rounds of playoff hockey as a 20+ minute top 4? Very doubtful. Look how hard our no.4 is fore checked. They will purposely target Giordano with the body.

Just say it out loud. 1st rounder for a guy the same age as Spezza. That's pretty nuts for a team that already lost hard on Foligno.

If he's cheaper than a 1st, replace "1st rounder for", with "completing our top 4 with..."

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Dubas should avoid rentals unless he can get one for pretty much shit all.

Ya im starting to worry he does a big futures package for Lindholm or Gio. Both would be mistakes and wouldn't fix anything if we keep getting sub 0.9 sv% goaltending

 

[Duffman955]

I don't want any rentals

We need players that can strengthen our team now and in the future.

Gio looks like trash, and Motte sucks. Please no assests wasted on this crap

 

[dubplatepressure]

I don't want any rentals

We need players that can strengthen our team now and in the future.

Gio looks like trash, and Motte sucks. Please no assests wasted on this crap

How in the world does Giordano "look like trash"? Please explain.

 

[Hoglund4MvP]

Florida is a good offensive team but defensivly its pretty hard.

Its fun to heard everybody saying florida is too good and toronto too bad defensivly defensivly and in net... panthers are not a better defensive team than toronto and bobrosvky never prove more than any leafs goalie than he can win in playoff with his sv % above 0.900 and his 3.24 gaa in career

Or last year heard panthers was very good against tampa when they allowed 24 goal in 6 games, so 4 goal by games. Only stl was worst..

yes but florida just made a defensive add at least and people scoffing. people dont like chariot here but he was still one of the most popular name available for playoff style hockey. so have to proceed as if it actually did help a flaw in team since they seem to know what they were doing adding everyone else before. Everyone like stats here, so statistically speak, Chariot will be a good addition for the panthers since everything trend to hit for them, and mimic that chart you post last week about his playoff numbers last year.

Now Leafs more behind florida so either keep up or sell off these soft depth guys like kerfoot mik holl dermott for 2023 assets so you can outbid teams next year. contenders next season again, so no shame if they did that and bet on anderson steeves knies abruzzese types this year instead.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Im not saying Florida or Carolina isnt involved in analytics, nor arguing that they arent successful. Just criticizing your weird shot at Dubas when a lot of his analytically driven decisions have actually benefitted this team significantly.

I think you're working backwards from the conclusion that Dubas uses the same analytical tools to evaluate players that you do. Then judging which roster decisions were analytical moves and which were not through that purview.

If teams cared about or made decisions on the basis of what McCurdy, Luszczyszyn, the Younggrens etc. thought, their work would be proprietary, not peddled through monthly subscription services.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Would be ecstatic if we were even getting him on the tail end of his prime but that doesn't seem to be the case. Granted I haven't watched much of Seattle this year but Gio looks really washed to me. Calgary's defense improved getting rid of him.

I think Calgary's success is mostly the Sutter effect, but Giordano is probably closer to being a Spezza vet (from two years ago) than a Muzzin vet.

 

[LeafSteel]

Gio doesn’t interest me at all.

I’d be open to signing him as a UFA, but to move assets when the prices for D are stupid just doesn’t move us forward.

No more assets on band aids, and a 38 year old one at that.

 

[Zybalto]

I appreciate you looking into this - could you do the same for Weber?

Looking at those numbers, Pelech, who we acknowledge is an elite dman, grades poorly in 3/9 metrics you've provided, grades avg in 2/9 and grades well in 4/9.

Do you think that's an accurate representation of Pelech's impact and we do not need to look at the bigger picture of his competition/deployment?

What makes Pelech so great is that he actually has the excuse of getting pounded into the dirt by usage that Chiarot doesn't quite have. Look at his apparent bad numbers compared to his zone starts. Well above the water mark across the board and better than anyone on his team. An amazing player really.

If you want to get a sense of why Chiarot is so overrated, just take a look of how he did away from Weber last playoffs(I dont have overall ozone starts so face% gonna have to cut it):

Weber/Chiarot:
TOI: 285:28
Ozone faceoff%: 38.71
CF%: 46.51
xGF% 57.95
GF% 52.35

Chiarot away from Weber:
TOI: 182:34
Ozone faceoff%: 39.08
CF%: 41.80
xGF% 40.50
GF% 20.68

Is it any wonder he fell off a cliff not being able to play with a slightly fading stud #1 this season?

I still maintain he can be useful in a depth role but I think we dodged a huge bullet if we were going near the guy. Gio or deHann would be a better choice IMO.

 

[ULF_55]

It's a seller's market - prices are high.

At this point, I wouldn't be against the Leafs being a seller then.

3 picks for a rental, when your cupboard is low on picks and the team has no faith in their goaltenders.

Folly.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Also keep in mind the advanced stats most popularly used here on a daily basis have almost no correlation to cup wins.

Not really sure that is true.

In the playoffs, there is a lot more room for variability because of the small sample size. A few lucky bounces or a few really good goalie performances can be the difference; especially when the difference in quality is not large. STL benefitted from that a fair bit, especially early on against WPG and DAL, to win their Cup. They won a lot of close games where the other team may have been better, but a 60% chance to lose is not a guaranteed loss.

However if you are consistently getting outplayed, and have unfavourable analytics, you would have to be extremely lucky to win in the playoffs or count on those bounces/hot goaltending... Effectively like Montreal. The vast majority of the time a team like MTL gets thumped out early when they play like they did in last year's playoffs.

People forget that the purpose of analytics is not to guarantee success, but to give you the best chance of success. Same purpose as a GM. There are certain things I can't control, but I can make sure my team is built in a manner which gives them the best chance to win. Considering the vast majority of teams who are good also have strong analytics, I would say there is a fairly strong correlation between them; and certainly a much stronger correlation to team success than a lot of the other intangible things that seem to not have as much of an impact.

As long as I have a GM who is making moves which actively improve (or maintain if they are already high) my chances of winning, there is little else you can do but have patience and a little bit of faith that luck will be on your side.

 

[dubplatepressure]

At this point, I wouldn't be against the Leafs being a seller then.

3 picks for a rental, when your cupboard is low on picks and the team has no faith in their goaltenders.

Folly.

Unlikely we're offloading talent right now unless we think we can replace it internally. Mikheyev? Holl? Boosh? Not really seeing any moved unless we're flipping assets for better pieces.

 

[Peace Frog]

Again, it wasnt about realistically trading him away, it was more about the concept on would you do anything you had to, if it meant you win the Cup.

If it means that by trading Matthews, we’d win the Cup this year, then absolutely! I see no hypothetical scenario where trading AM34 cripples us for our future. So yeah, I’d move him in a heartbeat to win the Cup.

 

[Folignos Helmet]

Unless we go big game hunting for Gibson, I'd rather just dip a toe in with stuff like
Dermott for Braun
Duszak for Johan Larson
Maybe a Mikheyev for Nick Paul type of UFA for UFA move.
Mid pick or prospect for Deslauriers

Bunts-AM-MM
Paul-JT-Willie
Kerf-Kampf-Kase
Deslauriers-Larsson-Spezza
ex Simmer, Giraffe

Rielly-TJ
Muzzin-Holl
Sandin-Braun
ex. Lily, Bush

 

[Fogelhund]

At this point, I wouldn't be against the Leafs being a seller then.

3 picks for a rental, when your cupboard is low on picks and the team has no faith in their goaltenders.

Folly.

Terrible optics for the players, and the fan base would go ballistic.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Unless we go big game hunting for Gibson, I'd rather just dip a toe in with stuff like
Dermott for Braun
Duszak for Johan Larson
Maybe a Mikheyev for Nick Paul type of UFA for UFA move.
Mid pick or prospect for Deslauriers

Bunts-AM-MM
Paul-JT-Willie
Kerf-Kampf-Kase
Deslauriers-Larsson-Spezza
ex Simmer, Giraffe

Rielly-TJ
Muzzin-Holl
Sandin-Braun
ex. Lily, Bush

Why not just keep the team you have? Or if you are getting Larsson for Duszak, then go for that and call it a day?

More successful teams than not actually stay put at the TDL, and even fewer winners really get major impacts from their rental additions where they can justify the cost outside of saying "well at least we won" (i.e. Tampa and Savard last year; Savard did not really do much and they probably could have won without giving up a huge package for him.).

 

[DraftSchmaft]

Not really sure that is true.

In the playoffs, there is a lot more room for variability because of the small sample size. A few lucky bounces or a few really good goalie performances can be the difference; especially when the difference in quality is not large. STL benefitted from that a fair bit, especially early on against WPG and DAL, to win their Cup. They won a lot of close games where the other team may have been better, but a 60% chance to lose is not a guaranteed loss.

However if you are consistently getting outplayed, and have unfavourable analytics, you would have to be extremely lucky to win in the playoffs or count on those bounces/hot goaltending... Effectively like Montreal. The vast majority of the time a team like MTL gets thumped out early when they play like they did in last year's playoffs.

People forget that the purpose of analytics is not to guarantee success, but to give you the best chance of success. Same purpose as a GM. There are certain things I can't control, but I can make sure my team is built in a manner which gives them the best chance to win. Considering the vast majority of teams who are good also have strong analytics, I would say there is a fairly strong correlation between them; and certainly a much stronger correlation to team success than a lot of the other intangible things that seem to not have as much of an impact.

As long as I have a GM who is making moves which actively improve (or maintain if they are already high) my chances of winning, there is little else you can do but have patience and a little bit of faith that luck will be on your side.

It is true. I looked.

Playoff hockey deserves 20 pages of content to explain so I'm not saying you're wrong either, but its just a simple fact there is no correlation between the ones posted here and cup wins

 

[Skullz]

I like Gio, but lets not trade our first or a top prospect. If its not cheap I would be hesitant with all the holes on the team. Also, if we get Muzzin back, we have too many lefties, and we all know how Sandin in on the right side. Also, Sandin is not someone I'd want out of the lineup, and if that happens because we spend assets on Gio I'll be upset.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

At this point, I wouldn't be against the Leafs being a seller then.

3 picks for a rental, when your cupboard is low on picks and the team has no faith in their goaltenders.

Folly.

I dont think they will be sellers but I would prefer just staying put if no goalies can be brought in. Let the young defenders get some NHL playoff experience and hope Campbell turns it around

 

[dubplatepressure]

It is true. I looked.

Playoff hockey deserves 20 pages of content to explain so I'm not saying you're wrong either, but its just a simple fact there is no correlation between the ones posted here and cup wins

Are you accounting for regular season vs playoff datasets (ie are you saying that regular season advanced analytics is not correlated to postseason success, or are you saying postseason advanced analytics is not correlated to postseason success?)

 

[LeafGrief]

Gio, much like Foligno last year, is exactly the kind of player that I think we need. Gio, exactly like Foligno last year, is going to cost way too freaking much and will likely provide minimal actual on ice effect. The Leafs are currently the 5th best team in the league, built around a big4 and with a shaky back end (especially in net). A stable veteran defender who can play up or down in the lineup would be great, but it's not going to mean one lick of difference if the goaltending shits the bed, or Marner has another meltdown.

I am very much hoping that Dubas skips the expensive rentals. 3rd rounders, B prospects, and a single 2nd to get some depth and a lottery ticket goalie? Sure, go nuts. Trading a 1st or a high end young player? Nah. There's no magic bullet that will fix the D, goaltending, and the Leafs' mental weakness. Save the assets, go into the playoffs where anything can happen, evaluate, then retool in the summer.

 

[Cor]

I would expect our defense to look like this entering the playoffs:

Rielly - Lyubshkin
Giordano - Brodie
Muzzin - Liljegren

I think we see Justin Holl flipped for a forward, Dermott +2nd for Gio @ 50%, likely giving another team a 4th or something to retain another 50%

 

[Stigma]

I'm down with the Gio idea. I think the aforementioned arguments for him outweight the arguments against him.

McBain? Personally, I don't like the price. Why not get Mcleod from the Devils? Mcleod is an elite 4C. Brings everything you'd want in a 4C to the table (defensive skills, faceoff skills, toughness, offensive competence). He's also from Toronto. He's a poor man's McBain. But we're not exactly rich with cap space so.......