GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 PART VIII

[The Podium]

If you are talking about replacements beyond this year, then sure.

Right now, I don't think they help us. We can worry about next year at the end of this year.

Performance Review: Vitek Vanecek And Ilya Samsonov After The First 52 Games Of The 2021-22 Season

Here’s a write up of both. It’s cool if you don’t care to read about them specifically but it has a section comparing them to every goaltender in the league. Good visual about how Jack compares to guys around the league.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

I'm not against trading for Miller if management is convinced we win the cup with him. I personally don't think we do unless we get a real #1 goalie as well.

They definitely need better goaltending, but I think I'd rather bet on one of Mrazek or Campbell getting hot at the right time than spending assets on some external goalie and hoping that they can. Unless you can say with a lot of confidence that Campbell/Mrazek will never get it together and the new acquisition most likely will, but I just don't think that's realistic now

 

[Cor]

No disagreements here. It's been a lack of scoring that's killed us the last few playoffs. I'm terrified of spending those assets on Miller though unless we also upgrade in net with the way Mrazek and Campbell have been for the last 3 months.

Im concerned about goaltending. However I think the likely scenario is Mrazek does what we need him to do and hold the fort and Campbell figures it out.

I’ve tossed around the idea of a Mrazek + ??? for Fleury @ 50% swap and I wouldn’t be upset if it happened, however I would still consider it a luxury move.

JT Miller doesn’t guarantee us the cup. No acquisition does that. I would say it improves our odds of a deep run this year and/or next.

 

[Jmo89]

They need both. If Dubas is as busy at the TDL as some predict, he probably gets both. With cap space opening up if Muzz goes on LTIR, he'll be shopping hard.

I agree. He committed to this roster, wasting a year of their prime is a mistake. Get a goalie, top 6 forward, and top 4 dman.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

Im concerned about goaltending. However I think the likely scenario is Mrazek does what we need him to do and hold the fort and Campbell figures it out.

I would be fine with Mrazek running with the net a little bit. It is not like he has been great himself, but we need him in more games anyways and maybe a stretch of games is what he needs to get back on track. He hasn't had that this year. At best, he gets 50/50 but that is after rarely playing for most the season.

The most competition Campbell has had to deal with is knowing he is getting back in the game after Mrazek regardless of how he (or Mrazek) does the game prior. That is not a real competition. Maybe some heat is what Campbell needs, even if the other guy is not playing well.

 

[Canucks LB]

Hey Leafs Fans,
I did a mini breakdown on the Free Agency Thread on what has been going on with the Canucks JT Miller over the past months, After a Magnitude of Arguments / Debates.
While you guys "might" Disagree, Here is basically a summary of the events, I hope you don't mind me posting this here, Could be some useful information, considering the recent news.
Thanks guys!
Lets start with what JT Miller Brings.

1 - He is a PPG Forward in the past few years, and is also having a Career Year
2 - He is signed to an extremely friendly 5.25m Deal, and Can (Most likely will) Retain as well half his Salary to Maximize Return.
3 - He can play Literally all 3 Positions, Across the entire line up.
4 - He is big, Strong, Gritty, and Performed in the most recent playoff run the Canucks Had.

Value -

Important things to mention - he has ZERO trade Restrictions Which means he will have multiple teams offering, which in "theory" Will cause a bidding war, which will increase his overall Value.
Secondly, He is NOT a UFA and is signed for an additional year next year.

What we have basically argued/Debated in multiple threads for the last few months, His value Should/Will be roughly around this.

Over-Value - Multiple 1st Round picks + Top Prospect + Good Young Player
Proper Value = 2 Equivalent 1st round picks (OR Players) + a Top Prospect
Under Value = 1 1st Round pick + Top Prospect

Consensus - A "Fair" Package for JT Miller to the leafs is a bit tough, Due to the lack of a "Top end RHD Prospect (Like a Schneider for example)" Which the Canucks Badly need.
Which Means the Leafs would probably go the "quantity" Route over the Pure Top End Quality.
Something like this would be "fair"
1st Round pick (Late) + Amirov ( no longer an option, I hope he makes a whole recovery, just awful news ) + Niemelä for JT Miller + 50% Retained on his Contract.
That being Said, With all the Teams Bidding on JT Miller, I believe The Canucks would still pass on this offer.

I would also like to mention that the Canucks have Cap Problems Also, Which makes a trade with the leafs also a bit difficult, Not entirely sure how that would work.

This is my Summary of the last few threads, History, and Value.
What do you guys think?

 

[Maplebeasts]

Hey Leafs Fans,
I did a mini breakdown on the Free Agency Thread on what has been going on with the Canucks JT Miller over the past months, After a Magnitude of Arguments / Debates.
While you guys "might" Disagree, Here is basically a summary of the events, I hope you don't mind me posting this here, Could be some useful information, considering the recent news.
Thanks guys!
Lets start with what JT Miller Brings.

1 - He is a PPG Forward in the past few years, and is also having a Career Year
2 - He is signed to an extremely friendly 5.25m Deal, and Can (Most likely will) Retain as well half his Salary to Maximize Return.
3 - He can play Literally all 3 Positions, Across the entire line up.
4 - He is big, Strong, Gritty, and Performed in the most recent playoff run the Canucks Had.

Value -

Important things to mention - he has ZERO trade Restrictions Which means he will have multiple teams offering, which in "theory" Will cause a bidding war, which will increase his overall Value.
Secondly, He is NOT a UFA and is signed for an additional year next year.

What we have basically argued/Debated in multiple threads for the last few months, His value Should/Will be roughly around this.

Over-Value - Multiple 1st Round picks + Top Prospect + Good Young Player
Proper Value = 2 Equivalent 1st round picks (OR Players) + a Top Prospect
Under Value = 1 1st Round pick + Top Prospect

Consensus - A "Fair" Package for JT Miller to the leafs is a bit tough, Due to the lack of a "Top end RHD Prospect (Like a Schneider for example)" Which the Canucks Badly need.
Which Means the Leafs would probably go the "quantity" Route over the Pure Top End Quality.
Something like this would be "fair"
1st Round pick (Late) + Amirov + Niemelä for JT Miller + 50% Retained on his Contract.
That being Said, With all the Teams Bidding on JT Miller, I believe The Canucks would still pass on this offer.

I would also like to mention that the Canucks have Cap Problems Also, Which makes a trade with the leafs also a bit difficult, Not entirely sure how that would work.

This is my Summary of the last few threads, History, and Value.
What do you guys think?

I don't think that's an unreasonable ask for Miller at 50%. Giving up Niemela would truly suck though.

 

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Hey Leafs Fans,
I did a mini breakdown on the Free Agency Thread on what has been going on with the Canucks JT Miller over the past months, After a Magnitude of Arguments / Debates.
While you guys "might" Disagree, Here is basically a summary of the events, I hope you don't mind me posting this here, Could be some useful information, considering the recent news.
Thanks guys!
Lets start with what JT Miller Brings.

1 - He is a PPG Forward in the past few years, and is also having a Career Year
2 - He is signed to an extremely friendly 5.25m Deal, and Can (Most likely will) Retain as well half his Salary to Maximize Return.
3 - He can play Literally all 3 Positions, Across the entire line up.
4 - He is big, Strong, Gritty, and Performed in the most recent playoff run the Canucks Had.

Value -

Important things to mention - he has ZERO trade Restrictions Which means he will have multiple teams offering, which in "theory" Will cause a bidding war, which will increase his overall Value.
Secondly, He is NOT a UFA and is signed for an additional year next year.

What we have basically argued/Debated in multiple threads for the last few months, His value Should/Will be roughly around this.

Over-Value - Multiple 1st Round picks + Top Prospect + Good Young Player
Proper Value = 2 Equivalent 1st round picks (OR Players) + a Top Prospect
Under Value = 1 1st Round pick + Top Prospect

Consensus - A "Fair" Package for JT Miller to the leafs is a bit tough, Due to the lack of a "Top end RHD Prospect (Like a Schneider for example)" Which the Canucks Badly need.
Which Means the Leafs would probably go the "quantity" Route over the Pure Top End Quality.
Something like this would be "fair"
1st Round pick (Late) + Amirov + Niemelä for JT Miller + 50% Retained on his Contract.
That being Said, With all the Teams Bidding on JT Miller, I believe The Canucks would still pass on this offer.

I would also like to mention that the Canucks have Cap Problems Also, Which makes a trade with the leafs also a bit difficult, Not entirely sure how that would work.

This is my Summary of the last few threads, History, and Value.
What do you guys think?

Seems like a fair deal to me. I'm not sure it perfectly fits in with what the Canucks need, but I think the value is there. The Leafs need someone who can salvage the 2nd line, and I think Miller can do that. If the Leafs put Muzzin on LTIR for the rest of the year, I don't think they'd need Vancouver to retain anything

 

[leafsfan5]

Yeah I think that deal for Miller is fair overall, if the Leafs can figure out their goaltending situation I would do it (though the Canucks understandably may try for a different package from another club)

 

[Nooodles]

A top 6 LW
A top 4 defenseman
A starting goalie

...we're basically saying Dubas assembled a not good team. Feels like the Matthews line has carried us way too long...he had another 3 points tonight.

2 top 4 defenseman

 

[Puckstuff]

My opinion on a 3 month rental for a player that can put us over the top i.e Hertl has changed. The risk to reward ratio has changed for me after the Muzzin injury and Campbell struggles. It's better we hold on to top picks/prospects or only move them for a player with term considering we need a Muzzin replacement, a top 4 RD and to fix goaltending in the next 12 months so we're going to need to keep assets. We now need to fix our core issues before we go out and get a player like Hertl.

 

[ACC1224]

I know nobody wants Tie around but if you want a player that gives a f*** and will drag people into battle when times get tough, it's Max Domi.

What is that based on?
I had to check to see if he even played last night.

 

[Burnie97]

If niemela is in any deal... I'd pass.

 

[ACC1224]

A top 6 LW
A top 4 defenseman
A starting goalie

...we're basically saying Dubas assembled a not good team. Feels like the Matthews line has carried us way too long...he had another 3 points tonight.

That has been apparent for a while.
What order you put them in could be up for debate.
1. top 4 Defense
2. top 6 forward
3. goalie

2 & 3 may need to be flipped.

 

[ACC1224]

Francis is a terrible GM, no one is getting swindled by him.

Dubas may be up for the challenge.

 

[The Podium]

Dubas may be up for the challenge.

You passive aggressive Dubas one-liners lately have been annoying

 

[ACC1224]

You passive aggressive Dubas one-liners lately have been annoying

I'm here all week

 

[Cor]

If niemela is in any deal... I'd pass.

This is where managements can make or break themselves.

Niemela’s value may never be higher.

If management has some doubts, they could look like genius’s moving him as the main piece in a deal to upgrade the team.

However you trade him and he continues his trajectory….. and you may have blundered massively.

It’s the chess game of transactions that I find fascinating.

 

[Burnie97]

This is where managements can make or break themselves.

Niemela’s value may never be higher.

If management has some doubts, they could look like genius’s moving him as the main piece in a deal to upgrade the team.

However you trade him and he continues his trajectory….. and you may have blundered massively.

It’s the chess game of transactions that I find fascinating.

I'm a huge fan of Robertson and I'd be willing to move him before Niemela.

Niemela is already playing in a men's league and putting up numbers that few guys have in that league.

Absolutely it may not translate to the NA game so that's the gamble you take.

I just think having a guy with that caliber on D, I don't think Leafs have had that in a while.

I think Sandin and Liljegren are going to be pretty good... I think this guy will be better.

So again personally I wouldn't but I'm like everyone else here, just an armchair GM.

I think the 1st, a roster player and a good prospect would be enough but I think many teams if he is available will drive that price up possibly.

 

[kb]

Hey Leafs Fans,
I did a mini breakdown on the Free Agency Thread on what has been going on with the Canucks JT Miller over the past months, After a Magnitude of Arguments / Debates.
While you guys "might" Disagree, Here is basically a summary of the events, I hope you don't mind me posting this here, Could be some useful information, considering the recent news.
Thanks guys!
Lets start with what JT Miller Brings.

1 - He is a PPG Forward in the past few years, and is also having a Career Year
2 - He is signed to an extremely friendly 5.25m Deal, and Can (Most likely will) Retain as well half his Salary to Maximize Return.
3 - He can play Literally all 3 Positions, Across the entire line up.
4 - He is big, Strong, Gritty, and Performed in the most recent playoff run the Canucks Had.

Value -

Important things to mention - he has ZERO trade Restrictions Which means he will have multiple teams offering, which in "theory" Will cause a bidding war, which will increase his overall Value.
Secondly, He is NOT a UFA and is signed for an additional year next year.

What we have basically argued/Debated in multiple threads for the last few months, His value Should/Will be roughly around this.

Over-Value - Multiple 1st Round picks + Top Prospect + Good Young Player
Proper Value = 2 Equivalent 1st round picks (OR Players) + a Top Prospect
Under Value = 1 1st Round pick + Top Prospect

Consensus - A "Fair" Package for JT Miller to the leafs is a bit tough, Due to the lack of a "Top end RHD Prospect (Like a Schneider for example)" Which the Canucks Badly need.
Which Means the Leafs would probably go the "quantity" Route over the Pure Top End Quality.
Something like this would be "fair"
1st Round pick (Late) + Amirov + Niemelä for JT Miller + 50% Retained on his Contract.
That being Said, With all the Teams Bidding on JT Miller, I believe The Canucks would still pass on this offer.

I would also like to mention that the Canucks have Cap Problems Also, Which makes a trade with the leafs also a bit difficult, Not entirely sure how that would work.

This is my Summary of the last few threads, History, and Value.
What do you guys think?

I don't think the value is off base here in any way. Very well laid out.

I think the major issue at play is the Leafs appetite to deplete their prospect pool. I do feel most fanbases are sleeping on Niemela, who at one point this season was leading the Liiga in scoring as a 19 year old D-man, and is also the reigning defenseman of the tournament at the WJC. He was actually known more for his defensive acumen and positioning before his breakout as a PMD. Amirov has had a difficult season, but his skillset is that of a left shot Nylander, but with the ability to get under opponents skin.

Now having said that - I would do it for a retained Miller. The Leafs need to take advantage of their window.

Now the secondary issue is at G, and you guys have Halak with DiPietro waiting in the wings.....any ideas on the appetite to move him, and cost?

My proposal.

1st, Amirov or Niemela, Dermott, Kerfoot for Miller + Halak (50% retention). (Kerfoot can be flipped for a 2nd+ due to his contract structure).

The working theory here is the return becomes the equivalent of 2 firsts, a youngish D who is blocked here but can play both sides, and a top-6 roster player, or whatever Kerfoot can be turned into.

The importance to the Leafs is that is much easier to fit under the cap in than doing Miller @ 50% for all futures, and for the Canucks there is no retention (dead cap) and they get a player who can step in and do Miller's role, or be flipped himself. Either way, it beats retention.

 

[TheShape]

Fan of Miller but don’t want to move Niemela for 1.5 seasons of Miller. I don’t want to give up on Robertson either but I would probably rather deal him first.

Fear that Dubas may mortgage the future.

 

[ToneDog]

Bunting Matty Marner
Miller Tavares Kase
Mik Kerfoot Nylander
Engvall Kampf Spezza

-might wake up JT and Willie
-moves Kampf down and Spezza to RW

I'd do a 1st + Robertson + Dermott and take a contract like Hutton's back for T.J. Miller.

Boeser is also available but he is a RW and doubt we can resign him without dumping major money.

 

[kb]

Bunting Matty Marner
Miller Tavares Kase
Mik Kerfoot Nylander
Engvall Kampf Spezza

-might wake up JT and Willie
-moves Kampf down and Spezza to RW

I'd do a 1st + Robertson + Dermott and take a contract like Hutton's back for T.J. Miller.

Boeser is also available but he is a RW and doubt we can resign him without dumping major money.

How about Halak's contract?

Can't see why they wouldn't take Kerfoot over salary retention. Kerfoot could be flipped for futures or kept to play in Miller's role. He's a Vancouver kid too.

 

[Apex Predator]

I think the Leafs need to stand pat. Given how hard it is to find defencmen on the right side I would hold onto Nimela. The top 4 potential he has and if Liljegren keeps developing might be best to hold onto him.

Given the Amirov news it makes it harder to trade Robertson as we need that cheap LW ELC. I was open to trading one of Amirov or Robertson with the emergence of Knies but now with Amirov health problems it’s probably best to hold o to Robertson.

 

[ToneDog]

How about Halak's contract?

Can't see why they wouldn't take Kerfoot over salary retention. Kerfoot could be flipped for futures or kept to play in Miller's role. He's a Vancouver kid too.

Yup Halak's makes sense but he would have to make it through waivers. You could put Mrazek on waivers if you thought Halak > Mrazek.

Yup you can definitely dump Kerfoot's money but I prefer to add to Kefoot rather than replace. Kefoot allows you to move Willie down and Kase up. Willie and Kampf most likely does not work.