GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 PART VII

[SprDaVE]

i get the idea wanting hagel , but why would chicago trade young players ?

He's in the rumour mill. I don't know. Teams do things that are puzzling but they do them for a reason.

 

[zeke]

Ok but we don't *need* Hagel. We do *need* a top-4 D, right?

No.

There's a similar (low) level of "need" both at forward and defense.

A legit top end upgrade in either one would be sweet tho.

 

[Brobust]

What is this Ben Chiarot nonsense?

 

[Duffman955]

We need a solid Top 4 defenseman, not just a throw in.

I don't trust both Muzzins health and Holl's ability to hold up for a full cup run

We definitely need a big peice. We are in the toughest division and tougher conference.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Buying high on Hagel is a poor idea. Shooting 20% this year while getting heavy offensive zone usage (66% offensive zone starts) and having pretty poor underlying numbers at 5 on 5.

Guessing there is a big regression coming, if he shot 10%, ~2% more than last year he would be at 7 goals and 13 assists or a 37 point pace this year. Doesnt scream 1st+ top prospect to me.

 

[ACC1224]

What is this Ben Chiarot nonsense?

Seems Dubas has a crush.

 

[Duffman955]

2 players I don't want unless dirt cheap:

Chiarot
Hagel

 

[SprDaVE]

Buying high on Hagel is a poor idea. Shooting 20% this year while getting heavy offensive zone usage (66% offensive zone starts) and having pretty poor underlying numbers at 5 on 5.

Guessing there is a big regression coming, if he shot 10%, ~2% more than last year he would be at 7 goals and 13 assists or a 37 point pace this year. Doesnt scream 1st+ top prospect to me.

Fair point. I think he's a pretty good forward that always impresses when you watch him but he might be getting the favourable PDO.

 

[Zybalto]

 

[Stephen]

I get what you are saying and don't disagree that the Cup is the most important thing but I have a big issue trading a couple of weeks of service (TDL pickup) for multiple years of service (picks or prospects). For me to trade a 1st, the guy coming back better have term or for me , it's no deal. Trading the future for the now tells me two things, 1) Your team did not do well addressing the lineup through drafting and 2) you as a GM failed to assess the needs of your team. IMO it's not a vote of confidence in your plan when you have to gut your future to protect today.

Generally speaking, trading a 1st + prospects for a young impact player under control (Jacob Chycrun), for multiple years this makes sense to me, trading a 1st for a player who is at the end of his career, on an expiring contract and someone you are not likely to retain (Foligno), makes little sense to me.

For me the thought that you HAVE to make a big trade at the TDL is old school thinking. If you drafted , developed and signed with purpose, you should only have to tinker, to have interchangeable pieces, in the case of injuries.

Yeah I wouldn’t be happy about a Chiarot type acquisition for a 1st. But if it’s a bigger fish that’s here for a few years I have no problem with considering moving the first.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Fair point. I think he's a pretty good forward that always impresses when you watch him but he might be getting the favourable PDO.

Ya he definitely could be a good fit largely due to his contract and i haven't watched him much to be fair. However the asking prices and underlying stats make me hesitant.
He had a PDO of .993 or something crazy at 5 on 5 when I checked yesterday.

Edit: just checked. At all strengths he has a PDO of 0.998

 

[TheDoldrums]

Buying high on Hagel is a poor idea. Shooting 20% this year while getting heavy offensive zone usage (66% offensive zone starts) and having pretty poor underlying numbers at 5 on 5.

Guessing there is a big regression coming, if he shot 10%, ~2% more than last year he would be at 7 goals and 13 assists or a 37 point pace this year. Doesnt scream 1st+ top prospect to me.

No ones going to pay up like he's actually a 60+ point player. If he was, he'd be worth at least 3 1sts with that contract.

A 1st + great prospect is still fair for me even acknowledging his overperformance offensively right now. I just don't think people appreciate how valuable it is to lock up a solid forward at that AAV for the next few years. I also think saying he has poor underlying numbers is a big reach, he looks fine there in the context of being on a bad team.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

No ones going to pay up like he's actually a 60+ point player. If he was, he'd be worth at least 3 1sts with that contract.

A 1st + great prospect is still fair for me even acknowledging his overperformance offensively right now.

I dont think I'd pay a 1st + great prospect for a guy that likely puts up 40 points when not shooting over twice his career average. Would someone else pay a 1st + great prospect for kerfoot at 50%? As that would be a similar contract and Kerfoot is likely the more productive player with a much longer track record.

 

[TheDoldrums]

I dont think I'd pay a 1st + great prospect for a guy that likely puts up 40 points when not shooting over twice his career average. Would someone else pay a 1st + great prospect for kerfoot at 50%? As that would be a similar contract and Kerfoot is likely the more productive player with a much longer track record.

Hagel has more upside with youth, has only been on a bad team for his career unlike Kerfoot. I don't think they're really comparable. Hagel also has a much more physical game, he's gotten Coleman comps.

Having said that I do think a hypothetical Kerfoot at $1.5 for the next 2.5 years would be highly covered, just probably not to this extent.

 

[Ziggdiezan]

Hagel has more upside with youth, has only been on a bad team.

That is true. He is 4 years younger than Kerfoot but I think that is balanced by his complete lack of track record compared to Kerfoot. He also likely wont get the opportunities he does on Chicago on other teams (PP time, zone deployment, ice time in general)

 

[TMLAM34]

Hagel is very similar to Bunting. Those are the type of guys you need playing with Matthews/Marner and Tavares/Nylander. The fact that he’s also locked up for another 2 years at a 1.5 million dollar cap hit is huge, especially for such a cap strapped team like us. We’re also forgetting this is only Hagel’s second NHL season and he’s 23 years of age (Bunting is 26 and couldn’t crack an NHL roster regularly until this year). Hagel has a lot of room to still grow his game.

Bunting - Matthews - Marner
Hagel - Tavares - Nylander

That’s a top six I’d be very happy about.

I really like the idea of adding McLeod as well. I personally don’t think it would cost a whole lot. A package including Dermott should get a deal done.

Kerfoot - McLeod - Kase

Adding McLeod I wouldn’t be opposed to trading Mikheyev to a playoff contender in the Western conference, Dubas can even sit down with Mikheyev and see if he has any preferred destinations. I can see St. Louis having interest and Mikheyev having interest in going there as they have a few Russian players. I’d look for a draft pick in return, a 2nd rounder would be ideal but if we get a third it still helps restock some of our draft picks we dealt last year.

Engvall - Kampf combo has a really good shutdown potential. Simmonds and Spezza are the weak links here but if that’s your only issue upfront then we’re in a very good spot. I’d rotate Simmonds and Spezza depending who our opponent is. Tougher more physical teams, slot in Simmonds. Teams with more offensive power, slot in Spezza.

Engvall - Kampf - Simmonds/Spezza


Defence is a little trickier… Chychrun would be an amazing addition, but that won’t happen. You have teams like Florida and the Rangers who will most likely outbid us. There really isn’t any other big names that are available and would improve our blueline. With Dermott gone in a deal for McLeod, maybe Yzerman would trade us Stetcher for one of our prospects obviously not named Knies, Amirov, Robertson and Niemela.

 

[Ashdown2]

He's in the rumour mill. I don't know. Teams do things that are puzzling but they do them for a reason.

i have my doubts he moves...... who moves a very young player on a super team freindly deal for another couple of years ...
it makes no sence, whatever the rumors are. There are a dozen other players the hawks would move before they move him.

 

[TMLAM34]

Man people talking about Hagel’s career shooting percentage and his shooting percentage this year, do you realize this is only his second NHL season? Lol

 

[aingefan]

Not trying to sell a trade here, but is Scott Laughton on Philly someone who would benefit our team? According to Daily Faceoff, he's their 2nd line C. He's avg 16.25 TOI, and does some PP and PK work too. His point totals year over year are not impressive (10/13/23/45 games this year), but he is contributing on almost 20% of the goals the Flyers have scored this year. His shooting percentage is 12.4%, a bit higher than his just north of 10% career avg. + plus he hits (100 so far this year), will drop the gloves and he's signed for 3 more years after this at 3M/. Would he be a help on JT's line with Nylander, offering some nastiness and perhaps unrealized scoring potential? 27 years old, 6'1/190 lbs. Would there be potential to twin him in a deal with Braun?

My second player to ask about; Michael McLeod out of NJ. 24, 4th line C, 6'2"/190 lbs. Another underwhelming scorer (14 points this year in 46 games), but as a 4C, is that his job? A very good skater, PKer, I'm wondering if he would work well beside Spezza/Simmonds on the right side, and Engvall on the left. He's 7th in the league with a 58.5% on the dot, carries a .975K this year and next. As various sources have suggested Severson as an option for the Leafs to pursue for RD, again could we twin McLeod to a potential deal? McLeod, like Laughton, also hits, with 92 this year and looks to be able to take care of himself when the gloves come off, and he protects his teammates.

Obviously, I'd like to see some more physically inclined players on the team, but I don't want scrubs. Any thoughts?

Nice targets.
My forward hope would be a versatile C too, little chippy, fast, PK some, maybe some upside.
Laughton is a nice idea, I always wondered why he signed for relatively modest AAV on the eve of his UFA.

 

[aingefan]

We need a solid Top 4 defenseman, not just a throw in.

I don't trust both Muzzins health and Holl's ability to hold up for a full cup run

We definitely need a big peice. We are in the toughest division and tougher conference.

Muzz’s health is the only reason I think Chiarot makes an ounce of sense to me, but still, the ask is ridiculous.

 

[ToneDog]

Muzz’s health is the only reason I think Chiarot makes an ounce of sense to me, but still, the ask is ridiculous.

He may have slowed down but his decisions on D are concerning.

My target would be Chychrun. Not only do you add him but you keep him away from Florida. Easily replaces Muzzin if he goes down.

 

[Avilaj07]

To Toronto-
JT Miller
Luke Schenn

To Vancouver-
Kerfoot
Holl
Holmberg
Amirov
1st Round Pick

To Toronto-
Justin Braun

To Philadelphia-
Travis Dermott

Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Miller- Tavares- Nylander
Mikheyev-Kampf- Kase
Engvall- Spezza- Brooks
Simmonds

Rielly-Brodie
Muzzin-Braun
Sandin-Schenn
Liljegren

 

[TheGroceryStick]

Muzz to LTIR until playoffs (cap improvements)
add Chychrun + Crouse / and a depth D like Braun
move out fluff (Holl/Ritchie/Kerfoot)

**I wont cloud with proposals ; but this lineup come playoff time would be deadly.

Bunting-Matthews-Marner
Crouse-Tavares-Nylander
Mikhayev-Kampf-Kase
Simmonds-Spezza-Engvall
Robertson

Rielly-Brodie
Chychrun-Sandin (who can play the rightside more? need it)
Muzzin-Braun
Dermott

Campbell
Mrazek

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

I want to reward this team with a deadline acquisition, but not at the expense of a 1st round pick or a top prospect for a player that's not moving the needle. If the defenseman is a marginal upgrade on Justin Holl, how can we possibly justify the price of a top prospect or a 1st?

If Philly wants a 2nd for Braun just give it to them.

 

[Bluelines]

The window is now whether we like it or not. Expect 1st and 2nds to be traded regularly while they try and capitalize on this window with this core.

I know you're right but man that leaves an empty pit in my stomach when I read it. Personally I don't think this team built to play in the playoffs. The thought of trading away the future for a pipe dream, just makes me sick.

IMO the Leafs trading the future for the now is equal to putting a new coat of paint on a house with no insulation and expecting it to keep you warm in the winter.

We need players that can create space for our top 2 lines, we don't have that. We need some stay at home dmen that can play on the 2nd pairing when Muzzin gets hurt, not if, but when. With that said this is the best group of bottom 6 complimentary players we have ever had. Florida, Carolina, Tampa Bay, Pitts and Washington are all really really really good teams. I think we can beat one of them, but to play 3 rounds vs potentially teams that good. I'm not sure if we got the players who can make life hard on our opponents for 3 rounds. If we got out of the East there is only one team in the West that concerns me.