GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 PART VI

[ACC1224]

Sometimes. Definitely not always.

In the case of Barrie, we'd have been better off trusting the Avs fans who told us he'd suck, for example. Same with Boston fans and Ritchie. In most cases that I can think of, the opponent fans intel on the incoming player has been pretty good.

It's a scary thought that the GM doesn't know what he's buying.

 

[Kurtz]

I think we misremember on Brodie because I read a lot how bad and soft he was defensively. He was compared to Gardiner endlessly. Stats told a different story. Siegenthaler and Severson has been a very good pairing for them... it's the rest of the core that's really bad, and Hamilton out of the lineup doesn't help. Severson is a pretty good defenseman and I would love to take advantage of that situation if they want to throw him out. He'd fit this team beautifully.

Stats don't lie, but fans are biased.

Stats can definitely mislead. Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics, as Twain once wrote.


On the Calgary fans - sometimes my memory is a bit off on these things, so I revisited our thread on the signing, and Calgary fans in it were definitely complementary. Confirmed with Link: - TJ Brodie to TOR | 4 years 5M per

Here are the quotes from Calgary fans in that thread (I only skimmed through the first 10 pages):

"He's elite. Enjoy him Leafs fans." (post 48).

"

There’s a huge misconception that he’s bad defensively because he makes the odd turnover. He’s elite at defending the rush and at getting his stick on the puck in his own end. Great in transition as well

You guys are going to love him. He’s incredibly underrated. Flames twitter is ridiculous and you’ll see all kinds of dumb takes buts he’s a top pairing defenseman

Very sad to see him leave Calgary. 4x5mil is a steal" (post 82)

"TJ Brodie is really damn good. He can skate with anyone, you’ll like him in TO." (post 124)



Hell, even NYI fans came into that thread to complement the signing. The only few folks who didn't like him were a few Leafs fans who likely only saw his stats.





​

 

[LeafChief]

It's a scary thought that the GM doesn't know what he's buying.

What's lead you to believe this?

 

[SprDaVE]

Stats can definitely mislead. Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics, as Twain once wrote.


On the Calgary fans - sometimes my memory is a bit off on these things, so I revisited our thread on the signing, and Calgary fans in it were definitely complementary. Confirmed with Link: - TJ Brodie to TOR | 4 years 5M per

Here are the quotes from Calgary fans in that thread (I only skimmed through the first 10 pages):

"He's elite. Enjoy him Leafs fans." (post 48).

"

There’s a huge misconception that he’s bad defensively because he makes the odd turnover. He’s elite at defending the rush and at getting his stick on the puck in his own end. Great in transition as well

You guys are going to love him. He’s incredibly underrated. Flames twitter is ridiculous and you’ll see all kinds of dumb takes buts he’s a top pairing defenseman

Very sad to see him leave Calgary. 4x5mil is a steal" (post 82)

"TJ Brodie is really damn good. He can skate with anyone, you’ll like him in TO." (post 124)



Hell, even NYI fans came into that thread to complement the signing. The only few folks who didn't like him were a few Leafs fans who likely only saw his stats.





​

The worst thing about stats is ignoring them.

Either way, Severson is a really good defenseman, probably even better than Brodie at the time of his signing. He's pretty underrated here and fans saying he isn't good defensively seems odd.

 

[ACC1224]

What's lead you to believe this?

The post I quoted

 

[Kurtz]

The worst thing about stats is ignoring them.

Either way, Severson is a really good defenseman, probably even better than Brodie at the time of his signing. He's pretty underrated here and fans saying he isn't good defensively seems odd.

I disagree - I think the worst thing about stats is using them incorrectly.

Here's an article on Severson with statistical analysis. It was done prior to last season, maybe he's improved significantly since then, but it's not too kind to him.

Severson is the player who expected goals stats were developed for. A consistent darling of the shot metrics over his first several seasons, his goal metrics always trailed behind, often substantially. He was one of the guys where hand waving away a divergence in CF% and GF% as an accident of luck or bad percentages turned out to be wrong. We can now see that in the more advanced metrics with shot location data that have gone beyond the reach of just shot attempts. Despite being fairly regularly positive in shot metrics, the more data on threat levels and scoring chances that was incorporated into models, the more that Severson’s stats started to mirror the lousy results he often got.

GAR metrics disliked Severson pretty much up until this most recent season and a overview of his isolated impacts shows how his defense has dragged him down and seen him be a net negative in threat level for each of the three seasons before this most recent one. Severson had his head above water for his first couple seasons in HockeyViz’s isolated impact measures, but slipped below them, at times substantially, the three seasons from 2016-19. He was a net -1.6% threat in 2016-17, followed by a -7.1% and -7-2% net threat in 2017-18 and 2018-19, with his defensive impact in 2017-18 looking particularly catastrophic. Matching those three seasons underwater (seen in the viz below) against the microstats from above is about as succinct an explainer for why Severson is so frustrating as a player as anyone can produce.

Damon Severson: Trade Bait or Blueline Building Block?

 

[WTFMAN99]

It's a scary thought that the GM doesn't know what he's buying.

I feel like I would qualify as a pro scout, 50% of the time I am right every time

 

[Kurtz]

Another reason not to trade for Severson...he already plays for us:

 

[SprDaVE]

I disagree - I think the worst thing about stats is using them incorrectly.

Here's an article on Severson with statistical analysis. It was done prior to last season, maybe he's improved significantly since then, but it's not too kind to him.

Severson is the player who expected goals stats were developed for. A consistent darling of the shot metrics over his first several seasons, his goal metrics always trailed behind, often substantially. He was one of the guys where hand waving away a divergence in CF% and GF% as an accident of luck or bad percentages turned out to be wrong. We can now see that in the more advanced metrics with shot location data that have gone beyond the reach of just shot attempts. Despite being fairly regularly positive in shot metrics, the more data on threat levels and scoring chances that was incorporated into models, the more that Severson’s stats started to mirror the lousy results he often got.

GAR metrics disliked Severson pretty much up until this most recent season and a overview of his isolated impacts shows how his defense has dragged him down and seen him be a net negative in threat level for each of the three seasons before this most recent one. Severson had his head above water for his first couple seasons in HockeyViz’s isolated impact measures, but slipped below them, at times substantially, the three seasons from 2016-19. He was a net -1.6% threat in 2016-17, followed by a -7.1% and -7-2% net threat in 2017-18 and 2018-19, with his defensive impact in 2017-18 looking particularly catastrophic. Matching those three seasons underwater (seen in the viz below) against the microstats from above is about as succinct an explainer for why Severson is so frustrating as a player as anyone can produce.

Damon Severson: Trade Bait or Blueline Building Block?

That article was from 2020. Let's apply recent-ish statistics. Basically, Severson is a mid pairing defenseman that does pretty well despite playing high and tough minutes. He's an upgrade for sure but the price to acquire isn't an "all in" one. This is all on a pretty weak team as well, he'd have a ton more support on the Leafs.

Damon Severson’s Season is Typical with One Glorious Shorthanded Exception

Damon Severson - Summary - Natural Stat Trick

• Corsi For% (Attempts For%): 50.93% - 5th out of 6
• Shots For%: 51.48% - 3rd
• Scoring Chances For%: 52.42% - 2nd
• High Danger Scoring Chances For%: 54.98% - 4th
• Goals For%: 37.78% - 6th
• Expected Goals For%: 51.97% - 3rd
• Offensive Zone Starts%: 45.23% - 4th

Generally, these are pretty good. When Severson is on the ice, the Devils have the edge in attempts and have taken more of a lead when it comes to shots, scoring chances, and high-danger chances. Plus, he has been doing this while starting mostly outside of the offensive zone. Unfortunately, the reputation of Severson is buoyed by that low GF%. While he does not have the lowest on-ice save percentage of the six defensemen in this range, the Devils’ offensive production sunk with Severson with a low 1.7 goals per 60 rate combined with a not-high-but-not-low 2.8 goals against per 60 rate. There is definitely a sense of poor luck plaguing Severson in 5-on-5. That all stated, other defensemen like Hamilton and Siegenthaler have been superior to Severson by these metrics. It is not a case where Severson has been the best on the team - just that he has been doing well.

Damon Severson is pretty much who he always was. He is a capable defenseman who can play quite a few minutes, play in more situations than you may think, and the Devils’ business over the course of many games or a season goes pretty well when #28 is on the ice. He is good enough on the puck and on the attack to be productive. Not enough to be a team leader, but enough to know he is doing more than chipping in occasionally. Severson is still prone to careless and costly errors and taking penalties. This is a typical season from Severson with one glorious exception: the penalty kill. I hope the shorthanded success continues throughout the rest of this season and beyond.

 

[LeafChief]

The post I quoted

So your logic is that fans of other teams trashed a player on the way out, therefore the GM did not know about what they were acquiring?

What about in the case of Bunting? A LOT of people said there was no chance he could play in the top 6. He had only had about 25 NHL games under his belt. What about Kase? A lot of people laughed about his injury history. We're the fans and posters wrong in those cases?

 

[Kiwi]

The worst thing about stats is ignoring them.


Either way, Severson is a really good defenseman, probably even better than Brodie at the time of his signing. He's pretty underrated here and fans saying he isn't good defensively seems odd.

When I've watched him he seems prone to the big mistake, The Gardiner style big mistake that really sicks in your mind

He played that 2 on 1 horrifically, that's going to stick with people even if his metrics look good overall

 

[SprDaVE]

When I've watched him he seems prone to the big mistake, The Gardiner style big mistake that really sicks in your mind

He played that 2 on 1 horrifically, that's going to stick with people even if his metrics look good overall

That's fine. He's a defenseman that plays a lot and will be prone to mistakes because he probably shouldn't be playing 25+ minutes. Just like Gardiner, what he provides far outweighs the odd mistake.

But I understand that he's not a physical defenseman and he isn't perfect. That much is clear and part of me probably wouldn't want him based on what it would take to trade for him.

 

[Kurtz]

So your logic is that fans of other teams trashed a player on the way out, therefore the GM did not know about what they were acquiring?

What about in the case of Bunting? A LOT of people said there was no chance he could play in the top 6. He had only had about 25 NHL games under his belt. What about Kase? A lot of people laughed about his injury history. We're the fans and posters wrong in those cases?

Dubas is right on some things and wrong on others, like most GMs. My point was that the fans of the base from which the player is coming from are usually accurate in their assessment.

The two guys you brought up aid that point - fans of Bos/Ana said that Kase was a good player but hurt all the time. Sure enough, he's been good for us...but already hurt a couple of times. As for Bunting, if memory serves, everyone was complementary of that signing as well, calling him a rat with the nose for the net. Which I'd say is pretty accurate.

 

[LeafChief]

Dubas is right on some things and wrong on others, like most GMs. My point was that the fans of the base from which the player is coming from are usually accurate in their assessment.

The two guys you brought up aid that point - fans of Bos/Ana said that Kase was a good player but hurt all the time. Sure enough, he's been good for us...but already hurt a couple of times. As for Bunting, if memory serves, everyone was complementary of that signing as well, calling him a rat with the nose for the net. Which I'd say is pretty accurate.

I find this point all completely strange. More so the other posters point of view than yours. I would not want a GM of the team that I cheer for to make decisions based off of what another fan base thinks.

Should the Red Wings have avoided Larry Murphy? Leafs fans were pretty loud about what they thought of him.

 

[Kurtz]

That's fine. He's a defenseman that plays a lot and will be prone to mistakes because he probably shouldn't be playing 25+ minutes. Just like Gardiner, what he provides far outweighs the odd mistake.

I thought about the Gardiner comparison (post-injury, slowed down Jake) a bit earlier too. I think that trait is a powder-keg in Toronto. Recall that we ran Jake out of town for it.

We need a big, tough, steady defensive dman who can clear out the front and make a decent stretch pass. Habs had 4 of those guys against us last year and it was a pain to deal with. We had 2 of those guys (Muzzin, Bogo). Now we only have 1, and he's beat up. Opposing teams have been setting up shop in front of our goal.

 

[Kiwi]

That's fine. He's a defenseman that plays a lot and will be prone to mistakes because he probably shouldn't be playing 25+ minutes. Just like Gardiner, what he provides far outweighs the odd mistake.

But I understand that he's not a physical defenseman and he isn't perfect. That much is clear and part of me probably wouldn't want him based on what it would take to trade for him.

I'd be interested depending on price

I wonder if his lack of physicality may bring the market down on him even with the term left on his deal

I'd be willing to trade our first plus something small for him but I'm not sure that gets a deal done

 

[WTFMAN99]

Dubas is right on some things and wrong on others, like most GMs. My point was that the fans of the base from which the player is coming from are usually accurate in their assessment.

The two guys you brought up aid that point - fans of Bos/Ana said that Kase was a good player but hurt all the time. Sure enough, he's been good for us...but already hurt a couple of times. As for Bunting, if memory serves, everyone was complementary of that signing as well, calling him a rat with the nose for the net. Which I'd say is pretty accurate.

I really want to to look at recent cup winning GMs to see how many "Wins" they got in their trades/free agent signings for 2-3 years leading up to a cup because I think you need a lot of things to go right. Imagine, Yzerman/Brisbois just had an unbelievable 3-4 years there where they weren't messing up much prior to the cup.

Doug Armstrong too likely had strung together some strong years before finally winning.

 

[Avilaj07]

To Toronto-
Connor Murphy
Dylan Strome

To Chicago-
Alex Kerfoot
Justin Holl
Nick Ritchie
1st Round Pick

 

[ACC1224]

So your logic is that fans of other teams trashed a player on the way out, therefore the GM did not know about what they were acquiring?

What about in the case of Bunting? A LOT of people said there was no chance he could play in the top 6. He had only had about 25 NHL games under his belt. What about Kase? A lot of people laughed about his injury history. We're the fans and posters wrong in those cases?

I believe they have an excellent idea of who they are acquiring more so than the fans of the team.

Bunting is great.

Kase missed some games but I like him.

 

[Fogelhund]

That's fine. He's a defenseman that plays a lot and will be prone to mistakes because he probably shouldn't be playing 25+ minutes. Just like Gardiner, what he provides far outweighs the odd mistake.

But I understand that he's not a physical defenseman and he isn't perfect. That much is clear and part of me probably wouldn't want him based on what it would take to trade for him.

That's the key for me, I do believe we need someone who can, and often does play the physical game.

 

[Fogelhund]

The worst thing about stats is ignoring them.

Either way, Severson is a really good defenseman, probably even better than Brodie at the time of his signing. He's pretty underrated here and fans saying he isn't good defensively seems odd.

So far bad giveaway behind the net leading to a goal against and a bad cross checking penalty while on the PK.

 

[GQS]

Watching the Leafs/Devils game and I don't understand the fascination that some people have with Severson. I mean if we're going to trade for a Dman at least let it be someone who can play physical and can defend decently.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I am not really sure how Severson helps our defense. I don't think he is better than Holl in that top 4, and we are not bringing him in for the bottom pairing when Liljegren is already there.

 

[Kurtz]

So far bad giveaway behind the net leading to a goal against and a bad cross checking penalty while on the PK.

And he allowed Marner to get a breakaway on the PK.

Sometimes you have to trust a fanbase when they're talking about a player they've seen for years.

 

[SprDaVE]

So far bad giveaway behind the net leading to a goal against and a bad cross checking penalty while on the PK.

He has been bad. Players have bad stretches.