GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 PART IX

[kb]

Leafs can still be salvaged with just average goaltending if you look at the underlying numbers. Our cup odds will still decrease a lot but at least we will have some sort of chance.

Not doing a move is a fireable offence because they know the same numbers we know.

Exactly this. Heck, I would be tempted to call up Kallgren.

 

[Peasy]

If both goalies continue to shit the bed for the rest of the year, I wonder if Boston would be open to a deal around mrazek and ullmark. As the season goes on, swayman is looking more and more like their guy. Ullmark has an additional year and makes about 2m more than mrazek. So the leafs would be getting them out of a longer and pricier deal, while Boston still gets a backup in return. Leafs get a goalie who has always put up solid numbers but has had some injury troubles/hasn't had a starter workload yet.

 

[acrobaticgoalie]

One thing I don't like that Dubas does: those bold, overconfident messages to the media. I mean....just shutup already. He didn't have to tell everyone that they're not looking for a goalie. If you want to instill confidence in your goalies, say something to them in private. Stop with these media messages, proverbs and studied one-liners.

It's a political answer. You aren't just going to come right out and say " yeah our goalies blow and we're looking to replace them".

That's not a good look. Calling them out in the media won't help the situation. They already know they need to be better.

 

[dubplatepressure]

It's a political answer. You aren't just going to come right out and say " yeah our goalies blow and we're looking to replace them".

That's not a good look. Calling them out in the media won't help the situation. They already know they need to be better.

Correct.

 

[TheShape]

Need a top 6 F, top 4 D and a capable 1 goalie. Think Dubas has made his bed with the goaltending, it was always risky going into the season with two big question marks back there.

I think you have to upgrade the team in front (D especially) and hope to give up less chances overall, cause I'm not seeing any available upgrade in net out there.

I'm beginning to warm up to a deal around Chychrun. Chiarot would be the cheaper add, but no interest in giving up a 1st rounder.

 

[TheShape]

One thing I don't like that Dubas does: those bold, overconfident messages to the media. I mean....just shutup already. He didn't have to tell everyone that they're not looking for a goalie. If you want to instill confidence in your goalies, say something to them in private. Stop with these media messages, proverbs and studied one-liners.

These guys are politicians trained to put out fires with their words. Take it all with a grain salt, there's no substance there.

 

[showtime8]

Being sellers isn’t just about being a playoff team
It’s about thinking ahead
Knowing the team still needs upgrades to be a serious contender and getting assets for parts that won’t be here long term

How does that instill confidence in the organization and any of the players here long term. So you're going to trade anyone on an expiring contract to get some assets because the team isn't likely to win this year?

Really it should be about trading to change the dynamics of anyone that isn't on the top line. The 2nd line has been a work in progress for a majority of the season. The 3rd line is 3 guys that are the exact same player and the 4th line is vets that are needed for leadership, but with a rotating cast on the left wing.

With Kerfoot starting the game on the 4th line last game, I think it all but signals that he is likely the odd man out to see what you can get for him in terms of different style of player. Even if he didn't stay their the whole game, you don't move players around that fit the dynamic of a line.

Kerfoot for a #4 dman or a 2nd/3rd line winger with some term that is more physical. Lawson Crouse would be the name I'd look at.

 

[Stigma]

It's a political answer. You aren't just going to come right out and say " yeah our goalies blow and we're looking to replace them".

That's not a good look. Calling them out in the media won't help the situation. They already know they need to be better.

Yeah, I get that, but maybe there's a better media response than we aren't looking to upgrade our goalie position or whatever he said. Maybe something a little more open-ended and subtle.

 

[Jmo89]

It's almost like we've spent too much on offense and not enough on defense/goaltending. Hmmm...

I agree, but it is what it is now. No point wasting the season on trash tier goalies.

Kerfoot and Mrazek's salary could cover a decent goalies salary going forward.

 

[aingefan]

Goalies are like roulette, just an unpredictable gamble.
All over the league, for almost ever.
The goalie who’s a lock year in year out over multiple years is a rare animal.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Not sold on preemptively blaming the goalies. Last year we got .934 SV% and 1.81 GAA in the playoffs and still lost. The year before .936 SV% and 1.84 GAA. If our goaltending is worse this year, well, then our team should've scored more when it was better and our opponents were worse.

 

[Scion]

Like my prom date. We don't need top tier, just good enough will do

Average goaltending may get this team 3rd place but they won't get much farther than that. They need above-average goaltending with this defense.

 

[Scion]

I think, more like hope, Dubas said he's not concerned about the goalies just to not fuel any mental fire Campbell might be suffering from. Give him a last minute morale boost, and if this boost fails too, it's over for Campbell. Plus if teams know we're desperate, the trade price goes up. So it's better to portray confidence.

He didn't extend Campbell in the off-season, which confirms he did have some doubts. He took a "show me" approach instead. Well, he's been shown. Grade of F. I see a trade happening soon.

I think Dubas realizes that there are no real solutions on the open market. If you are trading for a goalie now you are probably getting something akin to Rittich last year. All the Leafs can really do is shore up the defense.

 

[Scion]

Not sold on preemptively blaming the goalies. Last year we got .934 SV% and 1.81 GAA in the playoffs and still lost. The year before .936 SV% and 1.84 GAA. If our goaltending is worse this year, well, then our team should've scored more when it was better and our opponents were worse.

It's a bit misleading to look at those totals in isolation. Compare them to the opponent's goalies, and in particular, look at those numbers in the series-clinching games.

 

[Scion]

Can’t see why a guy like Schenn is targeted when we already have 4 bottom pairing D in the lineup at any given time. We need better.

Our bottom pairing D are getting murdered in front of the net though. I can see the justification behind a Schenn type so that you don't have to dress both Sandin and Liljegren in the playoffs.

 

[WTFMAN99]

Our bottom pairing D are getting murdered in front of the net though. I can see the justification behind a Schenn type so that you don't have to dress both Sandin and Liljegren in the playoffs.

I like Liljegren but our blueline is very similar to one another. Muzzin was unique in that there was some physicality there and Lybushkn has been a solid addition.

For the playoffs though, after Sandin, Rielly and Brodie I want 3 guys that are absolute pricks that will finish checks and make life in front of the net miserable for the other team.

 

[Mickey Marner]

It's a bit misleading to look at those totals in isolation. Compare them to the opponent's goalies, and in particular, look at those numbers in the series-clinching games.

Great teams find a way to win. Tampa beat both teams we lost to in 5.

Leafs 2016-17 to 2020-21

Regular season.
GF/GP-3.30 GA/GP-2.91

Playoffs
GF/GP-2.53 GA/GP-2.97

Offense has consistently been the issue. Our goaltending hasn't been good, but it's been good enough to win had our offense shown up.

 

[Amadeus]

I like Liljegren but our blueline is very similar to one another. Muzzin was unique in that there was some physicality there and Lybushkn has been a solid addition.

For the playoffs though, after Sandin, Rielly and Brodie I want 3 guys that are absolute pricks that will finish checks and make life in front of the net miserable for the other team.

You need a Nicolas Deslauriers - someone who can actually play in your lineup.

 

[WTFMAN99]

You need a Nicolas Deslauriers - someone who can actually play in your lineup.

Simmonds can do it if he wants to but doesn't appear motivated to hit.

Great teams find a way to win. Tampa beat both teams we lost to in 5.

Leafs 2016-17 to 2020-21

Regular season.
GF/GP-3.30 GA/GP-2.91

Playoffs
GF/GP-2.53 GA/GP-2.97

Offense has consistently been the issue. Our goaltending hasn't been good, but it's been good enough to win had our offense shown up.

Would you rather JT at 11M or a 2 other pieces? You could get a 2c/top 6 wing r 2c/top 4 D maybe if you do okay on contracts. Assuming you didn't sign bad deals, the 2 pieces combined likely outproduce JT.

 

[Beaumaris]

Average goaltending may get this team 3rd place but they won't get much farther than that. They need above-average goaltending with this defense.

Struggling to hold on to 4th. Place is closer to the truth.
A dependable goalie is a must.Otherwise: same old same old.

 

[ToneDog]

I like Liljegren but our blueline is very similar to one another. Muzzin was unique in that there was some physicality there and Lybushkn has been a solid addition.

For the playoffs though, after Sandin, Rielly and Brodie I want 3 guys that are absolute pricks that will finish checks and make life in front of the net miserable for the other team.

You might have one in Lyub and a second if Muzzin can return. Many hate Chariot but he could be your third at the right price.

 

[WTFMAN99]

You might have one in Lyub and a second if Muzzin can return. Many hate Chariot but he could be your third at the right price.

I am of the opinion we're paying Muzzin's bonus July 1st, he LTRetires and he's moved. That being said I assume we look something like this;

Rielly-Brodie
Sandin-X
X-Lybushkin

OR

Rielly-Brodie
X-X
Sandin-Lybushkin

For next year, Lybushkin has been a good add, keep him.

3rd pairing LD in the top scenario I would look at Zadorov, Cole, Chiarot etc if the term/$$ make sense, just gotta get a real nice RD to play with Sandin on the 2nd pairing.

 

[ToneDog]

Struggling to hold on to 4th. Place is closer to the truth.
A dependable goalie is a must.Otherwise: same old same old.

Bruins 2 points behind but we have a game in hand. Could be tied as soon as tomorrow night. I thought the two Florida teams would finish 1-2 but also thought the Bruins might decline some but not so far.

 

[ToneDog]

I am of the opinion we're paying Muzzin's bonus July 1st, he LTRetires and he's moved. That being said I assume we look something like this;

Rielly-Brodie
Sandin-X
X-Lybushkin

OR

Rielly-Brodie
X-X
Sandin-Lybushkin

For next year, Lybushkin has been a good add, keep him.

3rd pairing LD in the top scenario I would look at Zadorov, Cole, Chiarot etc if the term/$$ make sense, just gotta get a real nice RD to play with Sandin on the 2nd pairing.

We need Muzzin for these playoffs. Two more top 3-5 dmen at the TDL is a tall order. They can move him in the off season when they have time to find a suitable replacement.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Would you rather JT at 11M or a 2 other pieces? You could get a 2c/top 6 wing r 2c/top 4 D maybe if you do okay on contracts. Assuming you didn't sign bad deals, the 2 pieces combined likely outproduce JT.

I mean, hindsights 20/20, gotta' live with the Tavares signing now, even if it's not an optimal use of cap space. I don't think spending half the cap on four forwards in perpetuity is a winning strategy though. It's really the Marleau deal that buggered everything up.