GDT: Trade and Free Agency Thread - 2021/22 PART IX

[ACC1224]

Maybe Johnny will waive and they can market a big name , similar to how big name Euro soccer players come to MLS when they’ve declined and on their last legs .

Only way Tavares leaves IMO is if they buy him out in the off season.

 

[Hockey 4 Life]

Only way Tavares leaves IMO is if they buy him out in the off season.

What does his buyout look like ?

 

[ACC1224]

What does his buyout look like ?

No idea but guessing it would be ugly.
Doesn't matter anyway, they won't buy him out.

 

[LeafSteel]

What does his buyout look like ?

Like this:

 

[Legion34]

What does his buyout look like ?

if you buy him out for x years. The same amount of years are 10’million hit. Then 300k for double

so if you bought him out with 3 years left
3 years at 10 ish
3 years at 300 k

Basically it’s horrific and not worth considering

 

[Punch Drunk Loov]

We need a good goaltending performance to win round 1. Feels like Campbell will be as good as anyone we could acquire at the deadline based on last playoffs.

Might be best to strengthen the F or D to make the goalies job easier. Campbell is our guy, we could possibly find a change of scenery trade where we swap bad backup goalies, but that person won't be our playoff guy anyways.

 

[Hockey 4 Life]

We need a good goaltending performance to win round 1. Feels like Campbell will be as good as anyone we could acquire at the deadline based on last playoffs.

Might be best to strengthen the F or D to make the goalies job easier. Campbell is our guy, we could possibly find a change of scenery trade where we swap bad backup goalies, but that person won't be our playoff guy anyways.

That idea is fine but if Jack struggles no amount of forward or d upgrade will matter.

 

[ULF_55]

if you buy him out for x years. The same amount of years are 10’million hit. Then 300k for double

so if you bought him out with 3 years left
3 years at 10 ish
3 years at 300 k

Basically it’s horrific and not worth considering

Buy-out proof.

 

[hockeywiz542]

Countdown to TradeCentre: About those Laine rumours... - TSN.ca

Not Available

It's safe to say Patrik Laine is not on the trade block ahead of the March 21 deadline.

In an interview with TSN Hockey Insider Pierre LeBrun in The Athletic, Columbus Blue Jackets general manager Jarmo Kekalainen sounded off on trade rumours that have surrounded the 23-year-old pending restricted free agent.

“Yeah it bothers me because people make up s---, that’s what bothers me,’’ Kekalainen said. “I understand that sometimes from conversations you have (with teams) some of it may leak out, and a name gets in there, but this is not a case like that. This is just somebody making s--- up from their own speculation of what we might do. They make it up and hope for the headlines and hope for the clicks. I think that’s unethical. And I don’t have any time for it.’’

Laine, who carries a $7.5 million cap hit this season, has 20 goals and 38 points in 35 games this season. Acquired from the Winnipeg Jets a year ago, he has 30 goals and 59 points in 80 games since joining the Blue Jackets.

LeBrun writes that Columbus will try to work out a long-term deal with Laine this summer, but Kekalainen stressed the team is not under pressure to reach a deal immediately.

“I’ve said this before about Laine, we have no rush, we have his rights for this year and next year,’’ Kekalainen said. “When the time is right, we’re going to sit down and look at all the options together and see if we can come to a solution that he will stay for us for a term that fits the need of both sides and for the dollars that meet the needs of both sides."

“Let’s see if there’s a marriage that we can get into. And if not, you know, that’s hockey. I always say, every player that gets into the time frame when they can become (unrestricted) free agents, they can do that if they want to. And there’s not much we can do about it. The only thing we can do is sit down and talk about all the options and present what makes sense for us, listen to what makes sense for the other side and see if there’s a deal to be made.’’

As for the Blue Jackets' deadline plans, LeBrun believes the team will try to move pending unrestricted free agents Max Domi and Joonas Korpisalo, but doesn't expect any major roster reconstruction beyond that.

Columbus currently sits eight points back of the Washington Capitals for the final wild-card spot in Eastern Conference, with a game in hand.

 

[GoodNewfieBoy]

I’ll take a cocktail of Domi, Giordano, Braun and Fleury thanks.

Christ almighty so many holes for a wanna be contender fml

 

[Scion]

I'm almost never on team stand pat, but I'm starting to feel it this year. The reason to go for it is that our 1st line appears special and gamebreaking. Lots of holes in the lineup that will be exposed in the playoffs where we'll have less powerplays

It's a shitty spot to be in. I don't think that the team is one move away, but I'm also not sure that you can afford to waste the prime years of this core because who knows if Matthews is still here after his contract expires or if Rielly and Brodie are still this good next year. I think whatever direction the Leafs go they need to be all in on it. Either you make a big trade for a guy like Chychrun or you hold onto your assets in preparation for next year. An in between move serves no real purpose.

 

[Morgs]

You guys are so dramatic after each loss. We're one of the best 5 teams in the league except for goaltending (5v5 EW):

5th in GF/60
5th in xGF/60
20th in GA/60
9th in xGA/60.

We're one of four teams (Colorado, Calgary, Pittsburgh) in the top-10 for both xG/60 rates. This team is elite offensively, very good defensively, and elite on special teams. Our goalies haven't been stopping the puck lately and we've been losing more but it's not because we're lacking players, it's because our goalies suck recently. This team has one hole if we can get league average goaltending, which we *should* be able to get from two goalies that have had success as recently as last season.

It's not even like it's actually a gigantic need either. A top-6 F would be nice to add to JT/WN, but the difference between us adding a FF09 or not would probably make us go from elite offensively to even more elite offensively.

Aka, calm down. Unless we win the division we're facing a 50/50 series vs Florida or Tampa. A big add could help, but we could match up against any team as is (assuming the goaltending bounces back).

 

[HEAVY DUTY]

TDL To Do List

1. Acquire Fleury
2. Acquire a top 6 forward to play on Tavares line (i.e. Miller, Forsberg etc...). This line has been in a funk and needs a spark. Kerfoot should be going the other way to make the cap work. Also he belongs in the bottom 6 not top 6.
3. Acquire a gritty and low cost D like Braun. Dermott or Holl should be going the other way.

 

[ULF_55]

You guys are so dramatic after each loss. We're one of the best 5 teams in the league except for goaltending (5v5 EW):

5th in GF/60
5th in xGF/60
20th in GA/60
9th in xGA/60.

We're one of four teams (Colorado, Calgary, Pittsburgh) in the top-10 for both xG/60 rates. This team is elite offensively, very good defensively, and elite on special teams. Our goalies haven't been stopping the puck lately and we've been losing more but it's not because we're lacking players, it's because our goalies suck recently. This team has one hole if we can get league average goaltending, which we *should* be able to get from two goalies that have had success as recently as last season.

It's not even like it's actually a gigantic need either. A top-6 F would be nice to add to JT/WN, but the difference between us adding a FF09 or not would probably make us go from elite offensively to even more elite offensively.

Aka, calm down. Unless we win the division we're facing a 50/50 series vs Florida or Tampa. A big add could help, but we could match up against any team as is (assuming the goaltending bounces back).

Key!

What is good enough in the playoffs?

How does his career stack up against what is required in the playoffs?

I just check a few previous Cup winning goalies and Penguins, Capitals and Lightning all had over .920's to win it.

 

[Scion]

You guys are so dramatic after each loss. We're one of the best 5 teams in the league except for goaltending (5v5 EW):

5th in GF/60
5th in xGF/60
20th in GA/60
9th in xGA/60.

We're one of four teams (Colorado, Calgary, Pittsburgh) in the top-10 for both xG/60 rates. This team is elite offensively, very good defensively, and elite on special teams. Our goalies haven't been stopping the puck lately and we've been losing more but it's not because we're lacking players, it's because our goalies suck recently. This team has one hole if we can get league average goaltending, which we *should* be able to get from two goalies that have had success as recently as last season.

It's not even like it's actually a gigantic need either. A top-6 F would be nice to add to JT/WN, but the difference between us adding a FF09 or not would probably make us go from elite offensively to even more elite offensively.

Aka, calm down. Unless we win the division we're facing a 50/50 series vs Florida or Tampa. A big add could help, but we could match up against any team as is (assuming the goaltending bounces back).

I appreciate the work you did to list those numbers, but the problem is that they do not capture what the game is like in the playoffs, and even down the stretch in the regular season. And unfortunately for the Leafs where they rank league wide is not all that relevant since they will almost certainly go up against one of two teams that is at the very top of the league in those same metrics. .

 

[Morgs]

Key!

What is good enough in the playoffs?

How does his career stat up against what is required in the playoffs?

I just check a few previous Cup winning goalies and Penguins, Capitals and Lightning all had over .920's to win it.

Campbell had a .921 last year and people still complained about his performance. The key is winning games and not being the reason we lose. It's one thing for the defense to be the issue (it's actually improved a crazy amount through the year), but it's another thing for the blame to be squarely on the goalies shoulders, which it absolutely has been basically since December.

A goalie improvement to me is fine, buy really I expect at least one of Jack or Mrazek to find their games. This team is really one of the best teams in the league. Top-6 is virtually unmatched, bottom-6 is vrry good besides Simmonds and Spezza. The 6 main defenseman (rielly, brodie, liljegren, holl, sandin, & Lyubushkin) have all had legit top-pair value despite their roles.

Making a team better is always a thing we can do, but really the best improvement is just having our goalies show up.

 

[hotpaws]

Only way Tavares leaves IMO is if they buy him out in the off season.

I was joking around about offering to the Ducks but it never hurts to ask a player to waive and most will have if they feel they’re no longer wanted .

also Johnny is used to be catered too , it’s probably a shock to him that the whole team doesn’t revolve around him like Islanders did

 

[Morgs]

I appreciate the work you did to list those numbers, but the problem is that they do not capture what the game is like in the playoffs, and even down the stretch in the regular season. And unfortunately for the Leafs where they rank league wide is not all that relevant since they will almost certainly go up against one of two teams that is at the very top of the league in those same metrics. .

But that's the thing. People quote "playoffs" because the team HAS to be elite 5v5 and take advantage of their special team opportunities. The Leafs are one of only 4 teams as I mentioned that are top-10 offensively and defensively, and here is where they rank based on GF/60 / GA/60 on PP/PK respectively:

PP:
1st - Leafs
9th - Flames
12th - Avalanche
15th - Penguins

PK:
3rd - Flames
4th - Leafs
5th - Penguins
22nd - Avs

So to sum, our players are 5th in xGF/60 at 5v5, 9th in xGA/60 at 5v5, 1st in GF/60 on PP, and 4th in GA/60. Our goalies? 28th in sv% 5v5, and 15th in all situations. This team is absolutely built for a long run in the playoffs, it's the best team of my lifetime, and a few minor tweaks (Simmonds out for a top-6F), good goaltending, and our top-line showing up in the playoffs is all we need to go on it.

No team besides the Flames are even close to as complete as we are. Even the Avs who are the best 5v5 team in the league can't touch our special teams.

 

[Skullz]

I wouldn't be willing to move Mikheyev unless for a serious upgrade. That third line is dynamic, and we need his speed. Also critical on the PK and one of the only guys on the team who is a hound on the forecheck. Finally doing a bit more offensively as well this year.

 

[Scion]

But that's the thing. People quote "playoffs" because the team HAS to be elite 5v5 and take advantage of their special team opportunities. The Leafs are one of only 4 teams as I mentioned that are top-10 offensively and defensively, and here is where they rank based on GF/60 / GA/60 on PP/PK respectively:

PP:
1st - Leafs
9th - Flames
12th - Avalanche
15th - Penguins

PK:
3rd - Flames
4th - Leafs
5th - Penguins
22nd - Avs

So to sum, our players are 5th in xGF/60 at 5v5, 9th in xGA/60 at 5v5, 1st in GF/60 on PP, and 4th in GA/60. Our goalies? 28th in sv% 5v5, and 15th in all situations. This team is absolutely built for a long run in the playoffs, it's the best team of my lifetime, and a few minor tweaks (Simmonds out for a top-6F), good goaltending, and our top-line showing up in the playoffs is all we need to go on it.

No team besides the Flames are even close to as complete as we are. Even the Avs who are the best 5v5 team in the league can't touch our special teams.

What happens if the series against TBL/FLA has few penalties called or the power play just runs cold for a week? Do you still like the Leafs chances? Are you also confident saying that we have a pp advantage against TB given what their pp has done the last two post seasons?

Don't get me wrong, I understand what you are saying, and I absolutely see a path for the Leafs to beat one of those teams. The problem is I that I think those teams are capable of winning more ways than the Leafs, and that is something the stats will not uncover unless we dig much deeper into the context behind them.

 

[Maplebeasts]

But that's the thing. People quote "playoffs" because the team HAS to be elite 5v5 and take advantage of their special team opportunities. The Leafs are one of only 4 teams as I mentioned that are top-10 offensively and defensively, and here is where they rank based on GF/60 / GA/60 on PP/PK respectively:

PP:
1st - Leafs
9th - Flames
12th - Avalanche
15th - Penguins

PK:
3rd - Flames
4th - Leafs
5th - Penguins
22nd - Avs

So to sum, our players are 5th in xGF/60 at 5v5, 9th in xGA/60 at 5v5, 1st in GF/60 on PP, and 4th in GA/60. Our goalies? 28th in sv% 5v5, and 15th in all situations. This team is absolutely built for a long run in the playoffs, it's the best team of my lifetime, and a few minor tweaks (Simmonds out for a top-6F), good goaltending, and our top-line showing up in the playoffs is all we need to go on it.

No team besides the Flames are even close to as complete as we are. Even the Avs who are the best 5v5 team in the league can't touch our special teams.

I agree that things are not as bad as one would think after having just lost to Buffalo. Campbell is a very talented goalie that absolutely can figure it out if he builds anything resembling confidence. One thing I would like to touch base on though is I don't think the team has ever really iced its optimal line-up in terms of players dressed and utilization. I have always felt like Babcock and Keefe have always used players incorrectly whether it be Marleau getting more ice-time than Matthews in a playoff series, last year Keefe forcing Joe Thornton on to the top six despite clearly being finished as an NHL player at all, his current usage of Simmonds and to a lesser degree Spezza on the second powerplay despite being cooked, etc. I can't help but feel Keefe hands out minutes and opportunities on reputation more than actual merit and am worried he's going to lean too much on guys who clearly aren't dependable right now like those 2 and Muzzin in the playoffs.

 

[Duffman955]

Yall dramatic af

Go watch some other teams play. Every Contender has holes.

If Campbell plays his career a good .920 sv% we will be fine

 

[Morgs]

What happens if the series against TBL/FLA has few penalties called or the power play just runs cold for a week? Do you still like the Leafs chances? Are you also confident saying that we have a pp advantage against TB given what their pp has done the last two post seasons?

Don't get me wrong, I understand what you are saying, and I absolutely see a path for the Leafs to beat one of those teams. The problem is I that I think those teams are capable of winning more ways than the Leafs, and that is something the stats will not uncover unless we dig much deeper into the context behind them.

But here's the thing when it comes to those teams: they have more weaknesses than us:

Florida
5v5 xGF/60 - 1st
5v5 xGA/60 - 17th
PP GF/60 - 14th
PK GA/60 - 18th
5v5 sv% - 17th
AS sv% - 18th

Tampa
5v5 xGF/60 - 11th
5v5 xGA/60 - 2nd
PP GF/60 - 18th
PK GA/60 - 11th
5v5 sv% - 8th
AS sv% - 13th

Florida is the offensive juggernaut of the league at 5v5. But they lack defensively compared to us, their PP is meh, and their PK is meh. Not to mention their goalies arent any better than ours overall. 5v5 ours are a mess, but overall our goalies actually rank higher despite how awful they've been since Dec.

Tampa on the other hand is not the same Tampa that won cups. They've turned into a defensive juggernaut with one of the best goalies in the league, and still manage to basically be a top-10 team offensively 5v5. Their issues stem from a PP that's even more average than Florida's (obv they'll have Kuch back, so it's hard to say) and a slightly better than average PK. They're nowhere near as complete as us after losing their whole 3rd line, but they're absolutely a team we match up with.

 

[SeaOfBlue]

I agree that things are not as bad as one would think after having just lost to Buffalo. Campbell is a very talented goalie that absolutely can figure it out if he builds anything resembling confidence. One thing I would like to touch base on though is I don't think the team has ever really iced its optimal line-up in terms of players dressed and utilization. I have always felt like Babcock and Keefe have always used players incorrectly whether it be Marleau getting more ice-time than Matthews in a playoff series, last year Keefe forcing Joe Thornton on to the top six despite clearly being finished as an NHL player at all, his current usage of Simmonds and to a lesser degree Spezza on the second powerplay despite being cooked, etc. I can't help but feel Keefe hands out minutes and opportunities on reputation more than actual merit and am worried he's going to lean too much on guys who clearly aren't dependable right now like those 2 and Muzzin in the playoffs.

Simmonds plays less than 10 minutes a night on the 4th line. That is exactly what he deserves, unless we want to take him out of the lineup altogether (which I would be fine with doing).

Spezza at ES is cooked, but he still has value on the PP and in faceoffs... And even then he is only playing 11 minutes a night.

These two play the least amount of minutes, as they should.

Seems he learned from that Thornton debacle.

Ideally, I think you add another solid bottom 6er and then you rotate Spezza and Simmonds based on what you need in the playoffs.

As for Muzzin, he is still a guy who can handle big minutes. Just needs to be more of a stay-at-home guy than a puck mover like he was before.

 

[LeafsFan89]

But here's the thing when it comes to those teams: they have more weaknesses than us:

Florida
5v5 xGF/60 - 1st
5v5 xGA/60 - 17th
PP GF/60 - 14th
PK GA/60 - 18th
5v5 sv% - 17th
AS sv% - 18th

Tampa
5v5 xGF/60 - 11th
5v5 xGA/60 - 2nd
PP GF/60 - 18th
PK GA/60 - 11th
5v5 sv% - 8th
AS sv% - 13th

Florida is the offensive juggernaut of the league at 5v5. But they lack defensively compared to us, their PP is meh, and their PK is meh. Not to mention their goalies arent any better than ours overall. 5v5 ours are a mess, but overall our goalies actually rank higher despite how awful they've been since Dec.

Tampa on the other hand is not the same Tampa that won cups. They've turned into a defensive juggernaut with one of the best goalies in the league, and still manage to basically be a top-10 team offensively 5v5. Their issues stem from a PP that's even more average than Florida's (obv they'll have Kuch back, so it's hard to say) and a slightly better than average PK. They're nowhere near as complete as us after losing their whole 3rd line, but they're absolutely a team we match up with.

I appreciate the statistics. But we know playoff hockey is "anything can happen hockey" as opposed to the regular season. I don't feel confident in this group winning a playoff series right now because they don't seem to have the "playoff intensity" you would expect a playoff team to have.