Speculation: Trade and Free Agency Talk - LIV

[BuiumSaveUs]

19th in NHL in GA is not one of the best

I never said it was. The Wild are second in the league in xGA at 5v5: Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

xGA quantifies shot quality to determine how many goals a team should give up if a goalie stops the shots that they’re supposed to. The Wild goalies are letting in far more goals than they should. I don’t think Fluery is the answer either, as he grades out poorly in this category as well. But, the narrative the the Wild’s defense has fallen off is incorrect

 

[thestonedkoala]

Apparently Fleury doesn't want to go anywhere but Minnesota. So, if the Wild were serious, they should be able to get Fleury cheap.

 

[MNNumbers]

I never said it was. The Wild are second in the league in xGA at 5v5: Team Season Totals - Natural Stat Trick

xGA quantifies shot quality to determine how many goals a team should give up if a goalie stops the shots that they’re supposed to. The Wild goalies are letting in far more goals than they should. I don’t think Fluery is the answer either, as he grades out poorly in this category as well. But, the narrative the the Wild’s defense has fallen off is incorrect

Interestingly, if I am reading that correctly, it is also true that the Wild are exceeding their xGF by an even larger number. Does that mean they have a high shooting percentage? Or, does it mean that, somehow, guys like Fiala and Kaprisov are dynamic enough that their GF/xGF ratio is going to be bigger than 1?

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Interestingly, if I am reading that correctly, it is also true that the Wild are exceeding their xGF by an even larger number. Does that mean they have a high shooting percentage? Or, does it mean that, somehow, guys like Fiala and Kaprisov are dynamic enough that their GF/xGF ratio is going to be bigger than 1?

Probably mostly shooting % related.

 

[MNNumbers]

Also, the entire league is giving up about 1 goal per team more than they should, if you are comparing the xGA with GA. I'm not sure how NST calculates xGA, but it must be some algorithm about location of shots, whether they follow a cross ice pass, and some other things..all of which lead to anxG for a situation. I'm suggesting it needs a slight recalibration, although that would not affect the present discussion to any great extent, as we are talking about 1 GA.

Also worth noting is that there are some teams with much much bigger disparities than the Wild have. Poor goalkeeping?

 

[GuerinUp]

i feel like you gotta get fluery given his resume, especially if we can get rid of talbot in the process. EVEN if it costs us our first (which will be late) we could package our 2nds and probably get back into the first if we see a player we want.

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

Interestingly, if I am reading that correctly, it is also true that the Wild are exceeding their xGF by an even larger number. Does that mean they have a high shooting percentage? Or, does it mean that, somehow, guys like Fiala and Kaprisov are dynamic enough that their GF/xGF ratio is going to be bigger than 1?

That typically means that their shooting percentages are inflated. The shooting percentages have come down a bit the last month or so, which is why we would need some sort of goaltending upgrade to maintain the pace we were at. I would’ve like Anton Forsberg, but he just got extended today. There’s always the chance that Fluery is rejuvenated in a new system and goes on a tear, but his resume so far this season doesn’t have me hopeful that he’s a solution.

 

[Prior]

I don’t see the need to move Talbot right now. If you can add Fleury for a second, why not, buy yourself some insurance with a guy who can, at times, steal games.

Kahkonen can go back down to Iowa and you kick the decision on goaltending down the line for this offseason.

 

[Wild11MN]

Also, the entire league is giving up about 1 goal per team more than they should, if you are comparing the xGA with GA. I'm not sure how NST calculates xGA, but it must be some algorithm about location of shots, whether they follow a cross ice pass, and some other things..all of which lead to anxG for a situation. I'm suggesting it needs a slight recalibration, although that would not affect the present discussion to any great extent, as we are talking about 1 GA.

Also worth noting is that there are some teams with much much bigger disparities than the Wild have. Poor goalkeeping?

I thought xGA was simply about shot location, though I could be wrong on that. That would mean it's obviously flawed, but I'm not sure how to incorporate anything else without using a lot of subjectivity.

Edit: Looks like there may be other factors - I guess everyone calculates it differently, but they don't really say what types of stats they use specifically.

 

[thestonedkoala]

i feel like you gotta get fluery given his resume, especially if we can get rid of talbot in the process. EVEN if it costs us our first (which will be late) we could package our 2nds and probably get back into the first if we see a player we want.

Hell to the no; Talbot + Shaw/Dewar now that McBain has been traded. I'm a big fan of Fleury's career, but not a big fan of Fleury at the moment. I would absolutely not given Chicago a 1st for Fleury. I'd give them a 1st if Fleury was packaged with a player like Strome.

 

[Sad People]

How come we arent interested in trying to acquire Georgiev? Isnt he pretty good? Now this is a pretty ignorant question as I havent looked at the money or anything in depth about it just saw that NY is interested in moving him and that we were interested in MAF

 

[Prior]

How come we arent interested in trying to acquire Georgiev? Isnt he pretty good? Now this is a pretty ignorant question as I havent looked at the money or anything in depth about it just saw that NY is interested in moving him and that we were interested in MAF

He’s been awful this year. Fleury hasn’t been stellar either but he comes with a track record and pedigree.

 

[Sad People]

He’s been awful this year. Fleury hasn’t been stellar either but he comes with a track record and pedigree.

Thank ya thank ya I was under the impression he was doing fairly well, Like i mentioned in the original post it a really ignorant question.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Thank ya thank ya I was under the impression he was doing fairly well, Like i mentioned in the original post it a really ignorant question.

No, it's a good question. But Georgiev doesn't really move the needle. He's in the Kahkonen category.

 

[MNNumbers]

I think the interest on Fluery on the board here is mostly of this nature:
If you trade Talbot away, and acquire MAF, then you have no 3.7M cap hit next year. And, many of us are not sold on Talbot at that price next year, especially when there is an 8M increase in dead cap space.

So, it's not necessarily that anyone thinks a big run is coming with MAF between the pipes. It's a lateral hokcey move, with an advantage for next year. At least, that's how I see it.

 

[GuerinUp]

Hell to the no; Talbot + Shaw/Dewar now that McBain has been traded. I'm a big fan of Fleury's career, but not a big fan of Fleury at the moment. I would absolutely not given Chicago a 1st for Fleury. I'd give them a 1st if Fleury was packaged with a player like Strome.

fluery has also been playing on one of the worst teams in the league.

 

[MNNumbers]

I thought xGA was simply about shot location, though I could be wrong on that. That would mean it's obviously flawed, but I'm not sure how to incorporate anything else without using a lot of subjectivity.

I checked on it on NST, and I couldn't find how they calculate it. I did find a definition for HDSC, which was basically shot location. That's probably not as flawed as it looks, since it would be based on multiple years of data.

But, it should be noted.....and that was my point....that adding up everyone's xGA doesn't give you the actual GA for the league, which means you can't literally say 'hey, goaltending has cost us 12 goals this year", or something like that.

 

[GuerinUp]

 

[Sad People]

Ok wonder what we gave up for him

 

[TwiztedHeat]

Now trade KK and/or a 2nd for a defenseman like Soucy please or give up something less for Braun

 

[57special]

Well, Guerin seems to have decided to get tougher, rather than faster, or more skilled. At least it's a cheap adjustment.
Seems that they don't think KK had the stuff to be a starter in this league, also.

 

[Minnewildsota]

Doing very high level math, we have roughly $7mill in cap space currently. Seems like a waste if we don't use it.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Doing very high level math, we have roughly $7mill in cap space currently. Seems like a waste if we don't use it.

Okay; who do you go after

 

[ThatGuy22]

Okay; who do you go after

Copp or Stastny.

Centers that are good at faceoffs and have enough offense to play with Boldy/Fiala

 

[Minnewildsota]

Okay; who do you go after

Honestly, don't even know. Just commenting on the cap space. Seeing as we have to view it as a luxury for the next few years.