Speculation: Trade and Free Agency Talk - 2022-23 Edition - Postseason Success can't be a Myth!

[ref19]

Not sure we have the same definition of "steal".

Well you are the village idiot lol

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Well you are the village idiot lol

How dare you. I live in a city.

 

[Bazeek]

So Day 2. Seems likely that we stay patient and eventually end up with the presumed bottom-6'er on a short term deal, and that's the offseason.

But I do wonder what the trade options look like as Free Agency Musical Chairs starts to run out of players and seats. We've got a mostly-full roster, a bit of cap space, and quite a few assets. I don't think Guerin would or should go out looking to make something happen, but we're pretty well-positioned to be opportunists if something comes up.

I also wonder if they tackle the Dumba question early or wait on it. I don't think there's any rush, but the window to making that decision is open now.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

So Day 2. Seems likely that we stay patient and eventually end up with the presumed bottom-6'er on a short term deal, and that's the offseason.

But I do wonder what the trade options look like as Free Agency Musical Chairs starts to run out of players and seats. We've got a mostly-full roster, a bit of cap space, and quite a few assets. I don't think Guerin would or should go out looking to make something happen, but we're pretty well-positioned to be opportunists if something comes up.

I also wonder if they tackle the Dumba question early or wait on it. I don't think there's any rush, but the window to making that decision is open now.

Would not hate to get out front and circle back on the GMs who inquired about Dumba last season to gauge their interest. Let it roll into the season and if he can excel early on we could see a nice return for him. I am more inclined to look to trade him before the TDL is coming around as id prefer a 1st from a non contender.

 

[Bazeek]

Would not hate to get out front and circle back on the GMs who inquired about Dumba last season to gauge their interest. Let it roll into the season and if he can excel early on we could see a nice return for him. I am more inclined to look to trade him before the TDL is coming around as id prefer a 1st from a non contender.

I still think they plan to extend him if they can, but they should at least figure out what he's looking for and whether or not it's a bridgeable gap. If they do end up trading him I think that probably comes at the deadline, but you never know what'll come up this time of year either.

 

[Lapa]

I haven't been impressed by Dumba in a while. I wonder what kind of a C we could get for him?

 

[keppel146]

I haven't been impressed by Dumba in a while. I wonder what kind of a C we could get for him?

Can we trade him and our 1st to trade up at next years draft? Should be plenty of centers to choose from. Next year I’d be more than willing to take a big swing.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

I still think they plan to extend him if they can, but they should at least figure out what he's looking for and whether or not it's a bridgeable gap. If they do end up trading him I think that probably comes at the deadline, but you never know what'll come up this time of year either.

I am leaning heavily to the side that they plan to extend him, I just dont think it is the right move and I would much rather they sacrifice a bit of the lockerroom they love and get proper value for a player that wont get us much if any value after his extension and may also hinder contracts in the future if he wont take under 6m a year considering we have Boldy needing a new contract soon and if Addison balls out this season he will also need one.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Can we trade him and our 1st to trade up at next years draft? Should be plenty of centers to choose from. Next year I’d be more than willing to take a big swing.

We can’t.

 

[Bazeek]

I am leaning heavily to the side that they plan to extend him, I just dont think it is the right move and I would much rather they sacrifice a bit of the lockerroom they love and get proper value for a player that wont get us much if any value after his extension and may also hinder contracts in the future if he wont take under 6m a year considering we have Boldy needing a new contract soon and if Addison balls out this season he will also need one.

My opinion of extending Dumba really depends on how much it'd cost. If he's not getting a raise on his current deal I think an extension would make it a lot easier to transition from what we have now to our crop of defense prospects. They'd likely want to trade Spurgeon in 2-3 years, when his NMC switches to a modified NTC.

But he can probably get $6m+ in free agency, so if he wants that it's probably best to move on. I think those that don't expect the blueline to miss him will be in for a rude surprise in the short term, but longer term there's no use in drafting all of these defensemen if 2-3 of them can't play top-4 minutes.

 

[keppel146]

We can’t.

So the trade deadline is the Dumba decision deadline

 

[DeagleJenkins]

My opinion of extending Dumba really depends on how much it'd cost. If he's not getting a raise on his current deal I think an extension would make it a lot easier to transition from what we have now to our crop of defense prospects. They'd likely want to trade Spurgeon in 2-3 years, when his NMC switches to a modified NTC.

But he can probably get $6m+ in free agency, so if he wants that it's probably best to move on. I think those that don't expect the blueline to miss him will be in for a rude surprise in the short term, but longer term there's no use in drafting all of these defensemen if 2-3 of them can't play top-4 minutes.

I agree. Trading him will have an impact however these next 3 years I am in the thinking of we need to promote growth from within and allow it to be a realistic option. As much as he may be worth a 6mx6 deal and value isnt tragic I dont want him extended that long Unless we are actually willing to part ways with Spurgeon in 2 years. I see Spurgeon rather similar to Zucc. If we dont trade Zucc at all and let him ride out his contract then I dont see us trading Spurgeon either.

 

[Bazeek]

I agree. Trading him will have an impact however these next 3 years I am in the thinking of we need to promote growth from within and allow it to be a realistic option. As much as he may be worth a 6mx6 deal and value isnt tragic I dont want him extended that long Unless we are actually willing to part ways with Spurgeon in 2 years. I see Spurgeon rather similar to Zucc. If we dont trade Zucc at all and let him ride out his contract then I dont see us trading Spurgeon either.

A lot of who stays and who goes will probably depend on:
- how the ELC players do and what they'll command on their extensions
- how quickly and how much the cap rises (which is sounding more optimistic lately?)

If it gets tight, finding early exits for Zuccarello and Spurgeon would probably be Plans A and B to make room, though. So there are at least options.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

So the trade deadline is the Dumba decision deadline

I would say so.

A lot of who stays and who goes will probably depend on:
- how the ELC players do and what they'll command on their extensions
- how quickly and how much the cap rises (which is sounding more optimistic lately?)

If it gets tight, finding early exits for Zuccarello and Spurgeon would probably be Plans A and B to make room, though. So there are at least options.

By my count, ~$13.5M next summer for Dumba (if we so choose), Boldy and 3 4th liners.

 

[Bazeek]

I would say so.


By my count, ~$13.5M next summer for Dumba (if we so choose), Boldy and 3 4th liners.

Is that with the cap just going up $1m?

Even if Boldy takes a bridge deal (which I assume he will?) that could get tight with Dumba at $6m. Probably doable, but an extra $500k here or there could make a difference.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

A lot of who stays and who goes will probably depend on:
- how the ELC players do and what they'll command on their extensions
- how quickly and how much the cap rises (which is sounding more optimistic lately?)

If it gets tight, finding early exits for Zuccarello and Spurgeon would probably be Plans A and B to make room, though. So there are at least options.

Indeed if the cap goes up it can help a ton, I hope our ELC players take the next step and push us into these harder decisions rather than making it super easily to jump into a dumb contract with too much term.

I would say so.


By my count, ~$13.5M next summer for Dumba (if we so choose), Boldy and 3 4th liners.

Sounds like not enough considering Boldy could fetch a decent sized contract if he goes PPG.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Is that with the cap just going up $1m?

Even if Boldy takes a bridge deal (which I assume he will?) that could get tight with Dumba at $6m. Probably doable, but an extra $500k here or there could make a difference.

Yep.

 

[thestonedkoala]

I think they'll extend Dumba. He's the type of character they are looking for.

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

Trade deadline is probably the least likely day that he would be traded, it is too big of a hole to blow into the D to not acquire a replacement via trade or signing. Off season or early season is when the play would make sense, but most likely he finishes the season with a Wild logo on his sweater. Give a full season to the prospects to develop, re-asses performance of the D and Dumba, and go from there.

At this point in time, I would be fine with signing Dumba to anything less than 6.5MM and would not include a NMC, term is whatever if its tradeable. I would also be perfectly fine letting him walk in the offseason if it comes to that. His trade value in futures is like a mid to late 2nd if you can find the right team, and that doesn't move the needle for me when considering the value of having him finish the year, or the drama created by a trade causing negativity during the process.

That does all go out the window if someone like Addison or Faber suddenly make the jump and force the issue through great play, but there is already going to be room for Addison to get some experience being eased into the lineup, and I don't think Faber leaves the Gophers until the season is complete.

In the unlikely event of an implosion season, it would still be better to trade Dumba earlier than the deadline, before poor performance tanks the value more.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

Trade deadline is probably the least likely day that he would be traded, it is too big of a hole to blow into the D to not acquire a replacement via trade or signing. Off season or early season is when the play would make sense, but most likely he finishes the season with a Wild logo on his sweater. Give a full season to the prospects to develop, re-asses performance of the D and Dumba, and go from there.

At this point in time, I would be fine with signing Dumba to anything less than 6.5MM and would not include a NMC, term is whatever if its tradeable. I would also be perfectly fine letting him walk in the offseason if it comes to that. His trade value in futures is like a mid to late 2nd if you can find the right team, and that doesn't move the needle for me when considering the value of having him finish the year, or the drama created by a trade causing negativity during the process.

That does all go out the window if someone like Addison or Faber suddenly make the jump and force the issue through great play, but there is already going to be room for Addison to get some experience being eased into the lineup, and I don't think Faber leaves the Gophers until the season is complete.

In the unlikely event of an implosion season, it would still be better to trade Dumba earlier than the deadline, before poor performance tanks the value more.

We have a replacement, it is just unknown if they are willing to let Addison play in that spot and see if he can stick.

 

[roon]

Trade deadline is probably the least likely day that he would be traded, it is too big of a hole to blow into the D to not acquire a replacement via trade or signing. Off season or early season is when the play would make sense, but most likely he finishes the season with a Wild logo on his sweater. Give a full season to the prospects to develop, re-asses performance of the D and Dumba, and go from there.

At this point in time, I would be fine with signing Dumba to anything less than 6.5MM and would not include a NMC, term is whatever if its tradeable. I would also be perfectly fine letting him walk in the offseason if it comes to that. His trade value in futures is like a mid to late 2nd if you can find the right team, and that doesn't move the needle for me when considering the value of having him finish the year, or the drama created by a trade causing negativity during the process.

That does all go out the window if someone like Addison or Faber suddenly make the jump and force the issue through great play, but there is already going to be room for Addison to get some experience being eased into the lineup, and I don't think Faber leaves the Gophers until the season is complete.

In the unlikely event of an implosion season, it would still be better to trade Dumba earlier than the deadline, before poor performance tanks the value more.

Why is this unlikely? We lost Fiala - our second line is a big question mark, the GREEF line is pretty over-rated imo...their effectiveness is limited to the regular season apparently.

Teams are going to key in hard on that top line....and who knows if Flower is up to the task?

An implosion season is my base case.

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

We have a replacement, it is just unknown if they are willing to let Addison play in that spot and see if he can stick.

Addison is the potential replacement by offense, but physicality and defensive play are very different aspects of their games at this moment, which our right side is already lacking. I think Addison far more likely breaks in to the league on the third pairing this season and then they assess from there.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

Addison is the potential replacement by offense, but physicality and defensive play are very different aspects of their games at this moment, which our right side is already lacking. I think Addison far more likely breaks in to the league on the third pairing this season and then they assess from there.

We dont need physicality from the right side, we just need physicality in general which as of right now Kulikov and Middleton bring if we move Dumba. What Addison can bring is proper PP QB, good offense and quick dzone exits with puck retrieval and good first pass. Having a big hitter on the right side just to have one because our other right hand shot defenders dont is just silly. I will agree his defense isnt top notch but that also isnt a huge issue if he is playing with Brodin who can cover for what he lacks quite easily.

 

[Obvious Fabertism]

Why is this unlikely? We lost Fiala - our second line is a big question mark, the GREEF line is pretty over-rated imo...their effectiveness is limited to the regular season apparently.

Teams are going to key in hard on that top line....and who knows if Flower is up to the task?

An implosion season is my base case.

Being extremely generous to your cause, say deleting Fiala costs 5 wins to the team, without a replacement. that's 10 points, and oh no, we are still a 103 point team. Even if you attribute 10 wins solely to Fiala (LOL) and give 0 to a replacement player, that still puts us right in the middle of the playoff hunt. Kaprizov got better and better as the season went on and the guys that we hoped would grow their games, all did last year with obvious potential to continue to grow their games. JEE is a monster and so is that whole line, all three were severely injured in the playoffs and still were the most dangerous line some games.

Teams have keyed hard on that line since it was formed, we also key in on other teams top lines with GREEF, meaning we already have two lines that are going to be winning their matchups most nights that take up a majority of the minutes. The remaining lines can break even or even lose their matchups and we are still more likely to win the games, but I personally think those lines will continue to bring a lot to the table like they did last year.

Goaltending was extremely mediocre already last year, any change at the position has potential to be better without a lot of downside risk, as replacement level is already an improvement performance wise.

Implosion as a base case is ludicrous, off season gang is out in full force currently, remember the doom and gloom over the last two off seasons followed by record breaking seasons?

 

[thestonedkoala]

Hindsight is 20/20 but would you have now waited to trade Fiala?