Speculation: Trade and Free Agency Talk - 2022-23 Edition - Postseason Success can't be a Myth!

[Bazeek]

 

[BagHead]

Sort of amusing that they’re keeping players in the East by doing this. Now retain on Kane so he can go East as well and out of the hands of Vegas or Dallas.

Yeah! I saw someone post about how the East teams are arming up, but the West has been silent. It made me realize the common denominator has been the Wild's helping hand. I highly doubt it's a big brain play, but it is rather funny that it's working out that way so far.

 

[Wabit]

Well I'm guessing the possibility of Dumba being traded is about gone with Brodin being out and 2 of 3 retention spots used.

 

[57special]

What is the master plan here with these moves for picks that have like a 5% chance to do anything?

“ There is a plan.”

 

[Parax]

Well I'm guessing the possibility of Dumba being traded is about gone with Brodin being out and 2 of 3 retention spots used.

The more you think about it, who would even want to take him? There are a lot of good defenders still available, and a lot of cheaper defenders available with only so many teams still looking to add. Dumba doesn't bring much of anything, and even at 50% retained is a 3 million cap hit for a guy who at best is a #4 defender with warts.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Who got Svetlakov? It feels like Minnesota is just getting rid of prospects that they found in a garage cabinet

 

[57special]

Well I'm guessing the possibility of Dumba being traded is about gone with Brodin being out and 2 of 3 retention spots used.

I’m fine with that, unless we get a 2nd +, or better. Dumba, like it or not, is our 3rd best Dman most nights.

 

[Al Lagoon]

So Guerin got a 4th and a 5th for a little money and 2 prospects going nowhere.

4ths and 5ths don't necessarily get the heart beating, but the Wild line up included a few:

4th
Duhaime
Foligno
Shaw
5th
Kaprizov
Reaves

There is one outlier there, but getting more lottery tickets works for me. They are far from worthless.

 

[Digitalbooya]

I have to imagine that last retention spot is reserved for Dumba if a trade manifests itself or a late trade deadline move if it doesn’t.

 

[BagHead]

So Guerin got a 4th and a 5th for a little money and 2 prospects going nowhere.

4ths and 5ths don't necessarily get the heart beating, but the Wild line up included a few:

4th
Duhaime
Foligno
Shaw
5th
Kaprizov
Reaves

There is one outlier there, but getting more lottery tickets works for me. They are far from worthless.

Going off of this website's table, with a 4th and two 5th's this year, there's a roughly 71% chance we get an NHLer out of them. Not a bad die to cast. The more of these you build up, the better the odds get of a single NHLer, so they're not worth nothing. Obviously higher picks have higher odds, but lots of low picks can turn into something decent.

 

[Parax]

Going off of this website's table, with a 4th and two 5th's this year, there's a roughly 71% chance we get an NHLer out of them. Not a bad die to cast. The more of these you build up, the better the odds get of a single NHLer, so they're not worth nothing. Obviously higher picks have higher odds, but lots of low picks can turn into something decent.

Not sure I believe those numbers unless they are saying just 1 game counts. Hockey Prospecting just did a table where a player has to hit 200+ games, i.e. an NHL regular:

Seems like a better comparison. Comes out to about a 35% chance of hitting an NHL regular with a 4th and 2x 5ths.

 

[MNNumbers]

Not sure I believe those numbers unless they are saying just 1 game counts. Hockey Prospecting just did a table where a player has to hit 200+ games, i.e. an NHL regular:

View attachment 655962
Seems like a better comparison. Comes out to about a 35% chance of hitting an NHL regular with a 4th and 2x 5ths.

This is the math I get also. However, a 35% chance is not a bad chance. And, to reduce to the 2 picks we have gotten, it's still about a 22% chance. That's about 1 in 4. Not 'likely', but nothing to scoff at. Considering it costs nothing, that's a chance worth having.

 

[BagHead]

Not sure I believe those numbers unless they are saying just 1 game counts. Hockey Prospecting just did a table where a player has to hit 200+ games, i.e. an NHL regular:

View attachment 655962
Seems like a better comparison. Comes out to about a 35% chance of hitting an NHL regular with a 4th and 2x 5ths.

Reasonably sure they were going off of a guy making it to the NHL at all. Between that and the table you posted, I think it gives people a pretty good idea of what to expect from those rounds. For what it's worth, I still think 35% isn't too shabby when we're talking about getting an actual NHL regular (rather than the 70ish% chance of a single game). Thanks for sharing this table, glad you posted!

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

I don’t see any way we claim Kapanen

 

[Spurgeon]

I don’t see any way we claim Kapanen

If they can move Greenway, I’d be okay with it. Don’t think he gets to us before they have a chance though.

 

[Digitalbooya]

I don’t see any way we claim Kapanen

Him going on waivers has to confirm that nobody wants Greenway.

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

If they can move Greenway, I’d be okay with it. Don’t think he gets to us before they have a chance though.

They need to move greenway just to make things work next year. They can go another route, but Kapanen isn’t going to move the needle enough to force other guys out.

Him going on waivers has to confirm that nobody wants Greenway.

Yeah but also GMs are dumb and Greenway is big.

 

[Spurgeon]

They need to move greenway just to make things work next year. They can go another route, but Kapanen isn’t going to move the needle enough to force other guys out.


Yeah but also GMs are dumb and Greenway is big.

Realistically they probably only need to move one of GreenwayAddison/Goli/Fleury next year.

$8.3M for a 4th line, 7th D (Addison), extra forward and backup goalie (Gus).

 

[ThatGuy22]

I didn't really think about it at the time, but would the Blues and maple Leafs had any recourse if they Wild had just said psych after the first trade call in the ROR deal?

I mean, sure it would have ruined BGs reputation and may have resulted in a barn fight, but it's actually three separate trades.

ROR for pillar-1st trade
ROR for late pick- 2nd trade
Acaria for the rest -3rd trade

What if BG just blew everything up after the first trade call was completed and we added ROR for Pillar.

Some 4D chess...

 

[Wabit]

I didn't really think about it at the time, but would the Blues and maple Leafs had any recourse if they Wild had just said psych after the first trade call in the ROR deal?

I mean, sure it would have ruined BGs reputation and may have resulted in a barn fight, but it's actually three separate trades.

ROR for pillar-1st trade
ROR for late pick- 2nd trade
Acaria for the rest -3rd trade

What if BG just blew everything up after the first trade call was completed and we added ROR for Pillar.

Some 4D chess...

The league has to approve all trades. It's really just one 3 team trade, but the paperwork guys in the league make it work however they need to on paper. I'm sure the calls are all recorded so there would be proof of an oral contract. And I highly doubt the :I had my fingers crossed" line of defense would hold up in any type of appeal.

Sorry to rain on the parade, it is fun to think about getting ROR (half-retained) for Pillar. Then backing out of the 2nd trade and going neener neener neener

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

I’m hard on Guerin right now because he’s making a bet that I certainly would not have. To be more specific, he’s betting that being a middling team for the foreseeable future is fine and that accruing assets that he can wepaoninze post buyouts is the right approach to take with this team. It could certainly pay off, and he could look like a genius if he’s able to turn this team into a contender after years of remaining competitive with a $15M handicap. But right now, I’m skeptical. Either way, I hope it all works out.

 

[Taylor26]

The league has to approve all trades. It's really just one 3 team trade, but the paperwork guys in the league make it work however they need to on paper. I'm sure the calls are all recorded so there would be proof of an oral contract. And I highly doubt the :I had my fingers crossed" line of defense would hold up in any type of appeal.

Sorry to rain on the parade, it is fun to think about getting ROR (half-retained) for Pillar. Then backing out of the 2nd trade and going neener neener neener

Yep don't want to get that reputation around the leauge as a GM. Kinda like divers you don't want that reputation around the leauge. The refs will queue in on it.

 

[ThatGuy22]

The league has to approve all trades. It's really just one 3 team trade, but the paperwork guys in the league make it work however they need to on paper. I'm sure the calls are all recorded so there would be proof of an oral contract. And I highly doubt the :I had my fingers crossed" line of defense would hold up in any type of appeal.

Sorry to rain on the parade, it is fun to think about getting ROR (half-retained) for Pillar. Then backing out of the 2nd trade and going neener neener neener

It really isn't just one 3 team trade though. It's three separate trades. There is no concept of multi team trades in the CBA. We had to waive Beckman and place Foligno on IR to accommodate ROR and Orlov on our roster for a minute. They were actively on the NHL register as Wild players.

I can't find anything in the CBA and league rules that would prevent it. The CBA is very clear oral and handshake agreements don't mean anything, the only thing that matters is what's registered with the league.

So beyond BGs reputation, I can't think of anything that could stop them.

Maybe the NHL and NHLPA (or the NHL on its own) would make up something on the spot and retroactively punish them.

It's obviously all hypothetical, but I'm a CBA geek and it's interesting to me

 

[Wabit]

It really isn't just one 3 team trade though. It's three separate trades. There is no concept of multi team trades in the CBA. We had to waive Beckman and place Foligno on IR to accommodate ROR and Orlov on our roster for a minute. They were actively on the NHL register as Wild players.

I can't find anything in the CBA and league rules that would prevent it. The CBA is very clear oral and handshake agreements don't mean anything, the only thing that matters is what's registered with the league.

So beyond BGs reputation, I can't think of anything that could stop them.

Maybe the NHL and NHLPA (or the NHL on its own) would make up something on the spot and retroactively punish them.

It's obviously all hypothetical, but I'm a CBA geek and it's interesting to me

It's 3 trades on paper that are all contingent on each others happening and they all happen at the same time. This isn't a handshake between player/GM or GM/GM it's an agreement with the league involved and all 3 parties on the line at the same time telling the league the same thing. It's not Fenton hanging up with CGY (IIRC) a few years ago at the TDL for a Zucker trade.

The separate trades are just an on paper transaction, as the CBA doesn't have 3 player trades in it. Similar to Beckman being sent to the AHL last night (make a roster spot of Orlov) and then recalled today in TOR. Beckman never physically went from Ohio to Iowa to TOR in the span of a few hours.

Or in the real world it's like paying for something with 2 different gift cards and paying cash/credit on the same purchase. It's ends up as different transactions with multiple parties involved but the end result is the same where the store gets their money and the customer gets their stuff. It is just annoying to the cashier to do the extra steps.

 

[Prior]

Him going on waivers has to confirm that nobody wants Greenway.

Also means that no one wants Kapanen except for maybe free. Time will tell. I don’t know why the Wild would have interest in swapping out Greenway for an even worse player.