Speculation: Trade and Free Agency Talk - 2022-23 Edition - Postseason Success can't be a Myth!

[AKL]

This is a weird argument/example, considering he was picked at #20.

What does that have to do with his point? Wild took Wallstedt at 20. They didn't think he'd be available at 22 where they were actually picking. They traded up to get him. If anything this validates his point.

By and large, picking earlier in the draft gives you a better chance to get better players. That's as close to a scientific fact as you can get for this topic. Putting forth anecdotal evidence doesn't change that picking earlier in the draft generally gives you a better chance to get better players.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

ok...But is it reasonable to expect any team that is playoff bound to become a seller? Maybe you can point to examples where that's been the case, but I can't think of any playoff bound team in recent history that decided to start trading away players for futures.

I don't think that ownership, or the fan base at-large, would stand for that.

I doubt if we are within 10 points we sell. As much as I and others are for it, however if we are gonna try to win I don’t want to go buying either as this is not our year to push chips in. We are not a few pieces away. We are far more than a rental center away from being that true dark horse contender.

 

[DeagleJenkins]

Yes, teams are built through the draft. But are you one of those suggesting that we tank during Kaprizov's prime years in the hope that we can build a contender in 5-7 years? If that's the case, why aren't you just proposing that we trade #97 right now and really go for the tank?



Yes, or it could mean jack squat. Regardless, that player won't help us next year or in even the next 3-4 years.

No one is advocating to tank all of his prime away. You yourself stated all but bedard is not gonna be ready next year, which is why you tank for bedard. That is the one player we could genuinely project to be a big factor next season on this team. If we did actually tank earlier in the year it could be the retool we need. Tank one season, get a generational talent and back to the playoffs.

 

[thestonedkoala]

The experience and confidence gained by our core players would be more valuable than moving up a few slots to pick a player that wouldn't help us for another 3-4 years in the future, if ever.

A) Which core players need more experience in the playoffs? Eriksson-Ek has been around for a LONG, long time. Maybe Kaprizov? Brodin? Spurgeon? Oh right, Boldy.

Furthermore, you keep saying another 3-4 years:

Four years (your maximum) was the 2018 draft:

You're saying that Svechnikov did nothing to help contribute to his team? Dahlin is not a huge problem in Buffalo and they are finally righting the ship. The 2018 draft wasn't that great either.

But let's see:

Jack Hughes isn't a huge contributor to New Jersey? You don't think Zegras could help this team? Or Byram? Another Boldy wouldn't help?

Or Stutzle? Or Raymond? Drysdale or Perfetii?

The thing is a lot of these teams that need '3-4' years to let their prospects develop is that they don't have a superstar playing or they are a pretty poorly ran team that can't develop their players right.

Minnesota doesn't need a superstar in the waiting, but they could use another dynamic young forward to pair with guys like Kaprizov and Boldy.

the playoffs and/or losing in the first round just to move up 5 or so draft positions.

5 spots can be huge in the upper portion of the draft. It's like saying Reichel is as good as Lundell.

Yes, teams are built through the draft. But are you one of those suggesting that we tank during Kaprizov's prime years in the hope that we can build a contender in 5-7 years?

No one is saying that; also Kaprizov's prime years have already been wasted in the KHL and in the shortened seasons in the NHL. Furthermore, no one is saying Minnesota needs to continually tank but the two years where the cap hits are the highest for Parise and Suter is a perfect time to retool and regroup. Get lean and start leaning on those prospects.

 

[MuckOG]

A) Which core players need more experience in the playoffs? Eriksson-Ek has been around for a LONG, long time. Maybe Kaprizov? Brodin? Spurgeon? Oh right, Boldy.

Furthermore, you keep saying another 3-4 years:

Four years (your maximum) was the 2018 draft:

You're saying that Svechnikov did nothing to help contribute to his team? Dahlin is not a huge problem in Buffalo and they are finally righting the ship. The 2018 draft wasn't that great either.

But let's see:

Jack Hughes isn't a huge contributor to New Jersey? You don't think Zegras could help this team? Or Byram? Another Boldy wouldn't help?

Or Stutzle? Or Raymond? Drysdale or Perfetii?

The thing is a lot of these teams that need '3-4' years to let their prospects develop is that they don't have a superstar playing or they are a pretty poorly ran team that can't develop their players right.

Minnesota doesn't need a superstar in the waiting, but they could use another dynamic young forward to pair with guys like Kaprizov and Boldy.

All of the players you mentioned were picked near the top of the draft. It's extremely doubtful the Wild would find a similar player around pick 20 who would be ready in the next few seasons.

 

[thestonedkoala]

All of the players you mentioned were picked near the top of the draft. It's extremely doubtful the Wild would find a similar player around pick 20 who would be ready in the next few seasons.

And that's why you take a season or two off.

 

[Minnewildsota]

And that's why you take a season or two off.

Sorry guys. We're not playing this year. We're taking the year off. See you next year!

 

[MuckOG]

And that's why you take a season or two off.

That doesn't happen in the real world. Only teams that don't have a shot at making the playoffs "take a season or two off" (ie Chicago and Arizona). Chicago is in the middle of blowing their team up. Kane and Toews will be traded in a few months. Are you suggesting that the Wild blow the team up and trade away all players that would stand in the way of not making the playoffs? Because that's the only way this team removes any hope of a playoff appearance. That or some or all our core players (Kaprizov, Ek, Boldy, et al) get season ending injuries.

 

[AKL]

All of the players you mentioned were picked near the top of the draft. It's extremely doubtful the Wild would find a similar player around pick 20 who would be ready in the next few seasons.

Why does it matter if they're ready in the next few seasons or not? The team will still need good young players 5+ years from now. Arguably more than they need it now. 5+ years from now this organization might actually be able to build a Cup contender. In the next 3 years, not likely at all.

 

[MuckOG]

Why does it matter if they're ready in the next few seasons or not? The team will still need good young players 5+ years from now. Arguably more than they need it now. 5+ years from now this organization might actually be able to build a Cup contender. In the next 3 years, not likely at all.

I would suggest that we already have some of those young good players in the pipeline (Marat, Yurov, Wallstedt and others). I want to see the current group of players show a little success in the upcoming playoffs and then they can start sprinking in these younger players and that might be enough to make this team a legitmate contender 3-4 years from now.

Again, what you guys want just doesn't happen in the real world. Owners would never allow a GM to blow a potential playoff team up so they can add a couple of young players for the future. How would you get players like Kaprizov, Ek and Boldy to just sit back and lose games on purpose so the team can get a better draft position? They wouldn't, so you would either have to trade them or "hope" they all get season-ending injuries.

Name one team in recent history that has done what you are suggesting.

 

[AKL]

I would suggest that we already have some of those young good players in the pipeline (Marat, Yurov, Wallstedt and others)

Again, what you guys want just doesn't happen in the real world. Owners would never allow a GM to blow a potential playoff team up so they can add a couple of young players for the future.

I don't even think you know what I want considering this is the second time you've insinuated that I want to blow the team up and do a full rebuild.

I'm not mistaken about how this usually plays out "in the real world". This is the same conversation this board had 10 years ago when everyone was bright eyed and bushy tailed about Suter, Parise, Granlund, Dumba, Brodin, Coyle and Nino leading us to a Cup. The playoff losses against Chicago were necessary because those young guys just needed the experience and confidence to get them over that hump. We don't actually need more talent, we don't need to get better draft picks and acquire better prospects, we just need to stay the course.

10 years later, here we are again. Same song and dance. We don't actually need to build more, our prospects are on the way and they'll save us. Kaprizov, Spurgeon, Boldy, Rossi and Faber are going to lead us to a Cup, they just need to lose in the first round to get that experience and confidence.

You don't have to blow it all up this season, but they're going full steam ahead down the same path Fletcher went on. I mean Guerin even just traded a 2nd for a washed up goaltender last year. That's a vintage Fletcher move. If he trades more 2nds this year for more low value players like Schenn, as an example? How is that any different than Fletcher? Sure this team has Kaprizov, and that's a huge difference, but it takes more than one Kaprizov to win a Cup.

I'm sure we'll all be having the same conversation again in 10 years. You and others talk about how bad rebuilds are because they take 10 years to bear fruit. We haven't even had a "rebuild" in that sense, and we haven't borne fruit in 20 years either, so what are we saving ourselves from, exactly?

 

[MuckOG]

I don't even think you know what I want considering this is the second time you've insinuated that I want to blow the team up and do a full rebuild.

I'm not mistaken about how this usually plays out "in the real world". This is the same conversation this board had 10 years ago when everyone was bright eyed and bushy tailed about Suter, Parise, Granlund, Dumba, Brodin, Coyle and Nino leading us to a Cup. The playoff losses against Chicago were necessary because those young guys just needed the experience and confidence to get them over that hump. We don't actually need more talent, we don't need to get better draft picks and acquire better prospects, we just need to stay the course.

10 years later, here we are again. Same song and dance. We don't actually need to build more, our prospects are on the way and they'll save us. Kaprizov, Spurgeon, Boldy, Rossi and Faber are going to lead us to a Cup, they just need to lose in the first round to get that experience and confidence.

You don't have to blow it all up this season, but they're going full steam ahead down the same path Fletcher went on. I mean Guerin even just traded a 2nd for a washed up goaltender last year. That's a vintage Fletcher move. If he trades more 2nds this year for more low value players like Schenn, as an example? How is that any different than Fletcher? Sure this team has Kaprizov, and that's a huge difference, but it takes more than one Kaprizov to win a Cup.

I'm sure we'll all be having the same conversation again in 10 years.

I'm not suggesting that Guerin should start trading 1st-2nd round picks and/or top prospects for a playoff run this season.

What exactly do you want to see the org do this season? Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems like you want the Wild to intentionally miss the playoffs this season for better draft position. How do you suggest Guerin accomplish this? Because even if he does nothing at the TDL, there is still a better than 60% chance that this team, as its currently constructed, will make the playoffs.

 

[thestonedkoala]

Are you suggesting that the Wild blow the team up and trade away all players that would stand in the way of not making the playoffs? Because that's the only way this team removes any hope of a playoff appearance. That or some or all our core players (Kaprizov, Ek, Boldy, et al) get season ending injuries.

Honestly, with the lack of secondary scoring, Minnesota is a bubble team at best.

Minnesota is going to have to blow up the team; how many of their 'core' players are probably going to be gone in two years?

Zuccarello
Steel
Gaudreau
Foligno
Hartman
Fleury
Goligoski
Dumba
Merrill
Middleton
Reaves

By the time Minnesota clears the heavy cap space, currently only Kaprizov, Boldy, JEE, Brodin, and Spurgeon are going to be under contract. Addison, Shaw, Dewar, Duhaime and Gus maybe here or they may not.

Minnesota is in a very weird position, because by the time that guys like Wallstedt, Hunt, Rossi, Khusnutdinov, and whoever else is ready, Minnesota is going to have a massive turnover in roster and they are going to have to work these guys into the lineup to get any place OR they are going to have to trade them in order for this team to be competitive when the cap space comes off.

I think some fans are realizing guys like Foligno, Hartman, Middleton aren't in the long term future for this team and it might be best to move them. Hell move a guy like Reaves at the deadline and recoup that 5th round pick.

 

[MuckOG]

Honestly, with the lack of secondary scoring, Minnesota is a bubble team at best.

Minnesota is going to have to blow up the team; how many of their 'core' players are probably going to be gone in two years?

Zuccarello
Steel
Gaudreau
Foligno
Hartman
Fleury
Goligoski
Dumba
Merrill
Middleton
Reaves

By the time Minnesota clears the heavy cap space, currently only Kaprizov, Boldy, JEE, Brodin, and Spurgeon are going to be under contract. Addison, Shaw, Dewar, Duhaime and Gus maybe here or they may not.

Minnesota is in a very weird position, because by the time that guys like Wallstedt, Hunt, Rossi, Khusnutdinov, and whoever else is ready, Minnesota is going to have a massive turnover in roster and they are going to have to work these guys into the lineup to get any place OR they are going to have to trade them in order for this team to be competitive when the cap space comes off.

I think some fans are realizing guys like Foligno, Hartman, Middleton aren't in the long term future for this team and it might be best to move them. Hell move a guy like Reaves at the deadline and recoup that 5th round pick.

...I know I'm repeating myself, but teams who are in position to make the playoffs, don't do what you are suggesting. There isn't a GM on the planet that would even consider it.

The only way this could conceivable happen is if the Wild are like 10 points out of a playoff spot at the TDL.

 

[thestonedkoala]

...I know I'm repeating myself, but teams who are in position to make the playoffs, don't do what you are suggesting. There isn't a GM on the planet that would even consider it.

But you can't look at what other teams do because no team in the history of the NHL has been in the position Minnesota is in. The dead cap from Parise and Suter is making this an extremely unique situation that only Minnesota is in.

Do you suggest that Minnesota let Foligno, Hartman, Middleton and others walk for the sake of a 1 and done playoff run instead of continuing to build toward the future?

 

[MuckOG]

But you can't look at what other teams do because no team in the history of the NHL has been in the position Minnesota is in. The dead cap from Parise and Suter is making this an extremely unique situation that only Minnesota is in.

Do you suggest that Minnesota let Foligno, Hartman, Middleton and others walk for the sake of a 1 and done playoff run instead of continuing to build toward the future?

I don't know what will happen with Foligno, Hartman and Middleton. Foligno and Hartman are in the last year of their deals next season...they could conceivably be traded for players on expiring contracts that might better serve this team going into the playoffs next season, if they are in the hunt. There is also the possibility that they have better seasons next year and Guerin might want to keep them around. If they aren't and the Wild are out of playoff contention, then I could see them getting dealt for futures.

Too many things can happen between now and then to make an even educated guess on what happens with those guys.

 

[AKL]

I'm not suggesting that Guerin should start trading 1st-2nd round picks and/or top prospects for a playoff run this season.

What exactly do you want to see the org do this season? Correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems like you want the Wild to intentionally miss the playoffs this season for better draft position. How do you suggest Guerin accomplish this? Because even if he does nothing at the TDL, there is still a better than 60% chance that this team, as its currently constructed, will make the playoffs.

Guerin doesn't control whether they "intentionally" miss the playoffs or not. That's up to the coaches and the players.

What Guerin can do is trade guys like Dumba who have no future here for assets that we can use in the draft (the fact that they may or may not be here in the next few seasons being entirely irrelevant), or other trades for younger, cost controlled players who will have a future here. In the summer he can trade guys like Zuccarello, Foligno, who are in the same boat being older guys with no long term future here. You can get actual real value for these players that's going to help your team when you actually are ready for playoff runs. Marat was a 2nd round pick, we love Marat, Marat is going to help this team for years and years. If you can trade Dumba, who could help this team for 2-3 more months, for Marat, who could help this team for 5-7 years, why not do it? The negligible difference Dumba will make on the season's outcome is not worth as much as the difference a guy like Marat could make for those years, even if you have to wait for those years.

I don't consider that intentionally trying to miss the playoffs. I consider that shrewd asset management and building for the future. If the team still makes the playoffs, cool, that's a bonus. If they don't, oh well, Dumba wasn't gonna be the difference between not making the playoffs and a Cup anyway.

 

[Digitalbooya]

Canucks working lines on Boeser trade — The Fourth Period

According to TFP’s David Pagnotta, the Canucks have picked up trade talks involving RW Brock Boeser.

www.thefourthperiod.com

Another article that links Boeser to Minnesota.

 

[MuckOG]

Guerin doesn't control whether they "intentionally" miss the playoffs or not. That's up to the coaches and the players.

What Guerin can do is trade guys like Dumba who have no future here for assets that we can use in the draft (the fact that they may or may not be here in the next few seasons being entirely irrelevant), or other trades for younger, cost controlled players who will have a future here. In the summer he can trade guys like Zuccarello, Foligno, who are in the same boat being older guys with no long term future here. You can get actual real value for these players that's going to help your team when you actually are ready for playoff runs. Marat was a 2nd round pick, we love Marat, Marat is going to help this team for years and years. If you can trade Dumba, who could help this team for 2-3 more months, for Marat, who could help this team for 5-7 years, why not do it? The negligible difference Dumba will make on the season's outcome is not worth as much as the difference a guy like Marat could make for those years, even if you have to wait for those years.

I don't consider that intentionally trying to miss the playoffs. I consider that shrewd asset management and building for the future. If the team still makes the playoffs, cool, that's a bonus. If they don't, oh well, Dumba wasn't gonna be the difference between not making the playoffs and a Cup anyway.

I wouldn't have a cow if they traded Dumba, if we got something valuable in return....I would even be ok with a 2nd round pick. But I just watched today's Beyond the Pod podcast with Joe Smith, and he said there aren't any takers right now. Russo has also recently said the same. That could change as a playoff team might have a defenseman get injured and need a player like Dumba....but even then, if all we are getting is a pick in rounds 4-5, then what's the point? If that's the case, I would rather run with Dumba for this postseason, then let him walk in the summer.

 

[Bazeek]

Canucks working lines on Boeser trade — The Fourth Period

According to TFP’s David Pagnotta, the Canucks have picked up trade talks involving RW Brock Boeser.

www.thefourthperiod.com

Another article that links Boeser to Minnesota.

I'm glad that Pagnotta's information rarely turns out to be any good these days, if it ever did.

 

[AKL]

I wouldn't have a cow if they traded Dumba, if we got something valuable in return....I would even be ok with a 2nd round pick. But I just watched today's Beyond the Pod podcast with Joe Smith, and he said there aren't any takers right now. Russo has also recently said the same. That could change as a playoff team might have a defenseman get injured and need a player like Dumba....but even then, if all we are getting is a pick in rounds 4-5, then what's the point? If that's the case, I would rather run with Dumba for this postseason, then let him walk in the summer.

Okay so here's the disconnect I have with that.

Have Russo or Smith ever once talked about any potential returns on Dumba? Because from where I sit, having not talked to any GM's personally, I'm highly suspicious of the report that there's zero interest in Dumba. Because Dumba may not be the 50 point stud he was that one season, by my eyes, he's still a veteran middle pair defenseman, and a great leader and person to have in the locker room. Those have value almost always. Hell, we're talking about Schenn getting a 2nd round pick. Dumba is better than Schenn. And other worse players have gotten more at the deadline

So from where I sit, again having not spoken to any GM's personally, what I suspect is happening is there's no interest at the price Guerin is asking. And without knowing that, we can't know what kind of offers he's getting. It's highly possible that there is a team out there offering a 2nd+prospect for Dumba, but Guerin is asking for a 1st+roster center. Like we heard a few years ago when he was asking for a top six center in return. We all knew that meant Dumba just wasn't getting traded.

But yeah, if all they're getting, truly, is a 4th round pick for him, then no, I don't have a problem keeping him. I just personally doubt that's really the case. But that's why I'm not sitting here advocating trading Sam Steel or Ryan Reaves or Jon Merrill, they don't have any value anyway. I'm just talking about trading the guys with real value when their time is up.

Just speculation, but not baseless.

 

[57special]

We lost in the first round last year, then traded away our second best offensive player, and our secondary players have come back to earth after having career year. I don’t see how we can expect anything different this year.

I will say that our special teams are much better this year, which is good, but they are covering up for our abysmal 5 v 5 production, which is not. It’s like we’ve plugged one hole in the dyke, then another has sprung elsewhere.

 

[thestonedkoala]

I don't know what will happen with Foligno, Hartman and Middleton. Foligno and Hartman are in the last year of their deals next season...they could conceivably be traded for players on expiring contracts that might better serve this team going into the playoffs next season, if they are in the hunt. There is also the possibility that they have better seasons next year and Guerin might want to keep them around. If they aren't and the Wild are out of playoff contention, then I could see them getting dealt for futures.

Too many things can happen between now and then to make an even educated guess on what happens with those guys.

Some teams may want to trade for them now (well not Middleton) given the terms and their play.

But going back to the point, Minnesota is in a weird position. You are telling them that they need experience and yet those that should be the primary or secondary players on this team aren't even on it yet.

 

[MuckOG]

Some teams may want to trade for them now (well not Middleton) given the terms and their play.

But you've ignored the entire point of the discussion by focusing on one small part of the topic.

What's your point? If you think Guerin is going to be a seller if the team is in playoff position, then give me some of what you're smoking.

 

[AKL]

We lost in the first round last year, then traded away our second best offensive player, and our secondary players have come back to earth after having career year. I don’t see how we can expect anything different this year.

I will say that our special teams are much better this year, which is good, but they are covering up for our abysmal 5 v 5 production, which is not. It’s like we’ve plugged one hole in the dyke, then another has sprung elsewhere.