Speculation: Trade and Free Agency Talk - 2022-23 Edition - Postseason Success can't be a Myth!

[57special]

I don’t mean to be negative, but once we decided to trade Fiala for futures (I.e. prospects that may, or may not, help the team significantly 3-4 years down the road), we pretty much blew any chance to be truly competitive in the playoffs. Losing him and his points is only part of it, as losing him has had a profound effect on Boldy, IMO, who literally has no one on his level to play with except on the PP, which is, go figure, our most improved area this year.

There was no guarantee with Fiala, either, but I’d sure as hell like my chances better going into the playoffs with him, than not.

 

[saywut]

Thoughts on a 2nd round pick for Toews or JVR?

I think a singular trade is throwing picks away, similar to what Fletcher did on Moulson/Bergenheim/Stewart. Replacing Steel on the top-line doesn't improve another line as Steel could very well be in the pressbox ala Rask. Need 3 lines, I can buy the Greenway-Ek-Foligno line getting in a groove but I don't see the remnants getting it done alongside Boldy and Gaudreau, especially when Walker remains in the AHL now rather than trying him there as he's our best internal option there.

I don't think losing a singular 2nd really kills us, but that's the same thing looking at Fletcher's deals individually. Eventually throwing 2nds away yearly takes its toll on a prospect group, and then it's more difficult to make a bigger splash. This team was banking on getting value out of Rossi's ELC this year and Hartman/Foligno/Greenway being close to what they were last year. None of that happened. I get that the West isn't the East, but I'd rather hold on to what we've got and see what happens over the next couple years. No issue keeping Dumba as he would be a major loss to this team and unless Klingberg returns a 1st or comparable prospect I'm going to assume Dumba would not either.

I suspect that Greenway will be moved for a try hard, bottom six grinder.

If Dumba was going to be moved for something significant, you’d think he would’ve done it by now, so he’ll probably finish out his contract with us. I get frustrated with his play at times, but overall, I’ll be sad to see him go. I have fond memories of the whole Suter, Brodin, Scandella, Spurgeon, Dumba group.

You know, Toews has definitely faded, but if you look at his career he was never a big points guy. It’s amazing the hype he got early on because he was captain of a Cup winner.

I think Greenway lasts out the season, his role never really changed after the incident Russo reported, and if we are to have playoff success that line is going to have to find the level it played at the 2 seasons prior to this.

 

[Sota Popinski]

I don't even think you know what I want considering this is the second time you've insinuated that I want to blow the team up and do a full rebuild.

I'm not mistaken about how this usually plays out "in the real world". This is the same conversation this board had 10 years ago when everyone was bright eyed and bushy tailed about Suter, Parise, Granlund, Dumba, Brodin, Coyle and Nino leading us to a Cup. The playoff losses against Chicago were necessary because those young guys just needed the experience and confidence to get them over that hump. We don't actually need more talent, we don't need to get better draft picks and acquire better prospects, we just need to stay the course.

10 years later, here we are again. Same song and dance. We don't actually need to build more, our prospects are on the way and they'll save us. Kaprizov, Spurgeon, Boldy, Rossi and Faber are going to lead us to a Cup, they just need to lose in the first round to get that experience and confidence.

You don't have to blow it all up this season, but they're going full steam ahead down the same path Fletcher went on. I mean Guerin even just traded a 2nd for a washed up goaltender last year. That's a vintage Fletcher move. If he trades more 2nds this year for more low value players like Schenn, as an example? How is that any different than Fletcher? Sure this team has Kaprizov, and that's a huge difference, but it takes more than one Kaprizov to win a Cup.

I'm sure we'll all be having the same conversation again in 10 years. You and others talk about how bad rebuilds are because they take 10 years to bear fruit. We haven't even had a "rebuild" in that sense, and we haven't borne fruit in 20 years either, so what are we saving ourselves from, exactly?

So, trying to reconfigure the team on the fly never works because it didn't work with the Granlund era Wild but you can't think of any long-term tankjob rebuilds that didn't produce a champion? I can think of plenty of teams that made the finals (and even won some of them) without a scorched earth rebuild and weren't considered contenders. They rode a hot goalie, made a smart trade, found value outside of the top 5 picks in the draft. People can disagree on the best path forward but no one KNOWS the future.

Sports are a distraction. The large majority of people would rather have a fringe playoff team that can win on any given night than a team that they know has no chance before the season even starts. People aren't going to spend $100 to go watch a last place team and they aren't going to watch many games on TV. The owner realizes this and refuses to trade tens of millions of dollars per year for some magic beans. He knows there is no guarantee that tearing it all down will produce a title contender.

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

So, trying to reconfigure the team on the fly never works because it didn't work with the Granlund era Wild but you can't think of any long-term tankjob rebuilds that didn't produce a champion? I can think of plenty of teams that made the finals (and even won some of them) without a scorched earth rebuild and weren't considered contenders. They rode a hot goalie, made a smart trade, found value outside of the top 5 picks in the draft. People can disagree on the best path forward but no one KNOWS the future.

Sports are a distraction. The large majority of people would rather have a fringe playoff team that can win on any given night than a team that they know has no chance before the season even starts. People aren't going to spend $100 to go watch a last place team and they aren't going to watch many games on TV. The owner realizes this and refuses to trade tens of millions of dollars per year for some magic beans. He knows there is no guarantee that tearing it all down will produce a title contender.

We can all pick and choose how much to care about Leipold's wallet. I'm choosing "very little".

 

[AKL]

but you can't think of any long-term tankjob rebuilds that didn't produce a champion?

What lol

I can think of plenty of tankjobs that didn't result in a team winning the Cup, I've previously said the tank doesn't always win you a Cup. I think this should be directed at someone else.

 

[Southern Minny]

I don’t mean to be negative, but once we decided to trade Fiala for futures (I.e. prospects that may, or may not, help the team significantly 3-4 years down the road), we pretty much blew any chance to be truly competitive in the playoffs. Losing him and his points is only part of it, as losing him has had a profound effect on Boldy, IMO, who literally has no one on his level to play with except on the PP, which is, go figure, our most improved area this year.

There was no guarantee with Fiala, either, but I’d sure as hell like my chances better going into the playoffs with him, than not.

I agree, also losing Fiala had a bigger impact than expected, we had two high scoring lines last year, teams had to stop Kap/Zuc and Boldy/Fiala lines and that opened the door for the GREEF line to be so effective as well. No one has stepped up like BG thought and we are seeing how losing Fiala impacted this team.

 

[Minnewildsota]

We can all pick and choose how much to care about Leipold's wallet. I'm choosing "very little".

Which is fair, but I would guess that Leipold cares very deeply about his wallet. He's also the one that owns the team so...

 

[thestonedkoala]

So, trying to reconfigure the team on the fly never works because it didn't work with the Granlund era Wild but you can't think of any long-term tankjob rebuilds that didn't produce a champion? I can think of plenty of teams that made the finals (and even won some of them) without a scorched earth rebuild and weren't considered contenders. They rode a hot goalie, made a smart trade, found value outside of the top 5 picks in the draft. People can disagree on the best path forward but no one KNOWS the future.

Name them.

 

[57special]

I agree, also losing Fiala had a bigger impact than expected, we had two high scoring lines last year, teams had to stop Kap/Zuc and Boldy/Fiala lines and that opened the door for the GREEF line to be so effective as well. No one has stepped up like BG thought and we are seeing how losing Fiala impacted this team.

I guess the hope was that Hartman would follow up his 34 goal year with something similar, Foligno would continue to improve, and that those two, and Greenway would be healthy. None of that has happened. All three have been hurt, and their production has been poor.

I always expected Fiala’s loss to be a big deal for this team. Thats why I was so angry when he was tossed aside as if he was unimportant. If anything, I expected us to be even worse, but I think the West is even weaker this year, and I never thought that our PP would get this much better, especially without Fiala. JEE has been really good for us, this year.

 

[MuckOG]

Which is fair, but I would guess that Leipold cares very deeply about his wallet. He's also the one that owns the team so...

Im not one to generally defend owners of any team, but I haven't seen any evidence that he isn't willing to spend what it takes. If anything, his willingness to sign off on large contracts is whats gotten the team into its current situation

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Which is fair, but I would guess that Leipold cares very deeply about his wallet. He's also the one that owns the team so...

HE DOES?!?!?!

 

[57special]

Im not one to generally defend owners of any team, but I haven't seen any evidence that he isn't willing to spend what it takes. If anything, his willingness to sign off on large contracts is whats gotten the team into its current situation

I’m with you. Leipold has been really good. There with the money when we need it, but otherwise, shuts up and says supportive things about his GM.

 

[Bazeek]

If there's an upside to this season it's that there isn't a lot of room for management to do something really stupid. They can't add big long term contracts, which rules out most bad free agent signings or trades. The worst they can do is something suboptimal, like trade a mid-round pick and lose in the first round for the millionth time. That's annoying in the Chinese-water-torture sense, but it isn't actually boring a hole through the fronts of our skulls (I think?).

At some point I'd really like to see some kind of an inkling of a hope of a suggestion for an answer to our center situation, but that'll probably have to wait another 2 seasons. We're just killing time for now.

 

[AKL]

If there's an upside to this season it's that there isn't a lot of room for management to do something really stupid. They can't add big long term contracts, which rules out most bad free agent signings or trades. The worst they can do is something suboptimal, like trade a mid-round pick and lose in the first round for the millionth time. That's annoying in the Chinese-water-torture sense, but it isn't actually boring a hole through the fronts of our skulls (I think?).

At some point I'd really like to see some kind of an inkling of a hope of a suggestion for an answer to our center situation, but that'll probably have to wait another 2 seasons. We're just killing time for now.

Well they could trade 1sts or good prospects for guys with term like Boeser (retained). I try to believe they won't, but they could.

 

[Bazeek]

Well they could trade 1sts or good prospects for guys with term like Boeser (retained). I try to believe they won't, but they could.

I guess Boeser would be the main danger right now, and that's mostly due to presumed price. At his current cap hit he should be a non-starter, but if Vancouver retains significant money how much does that drive the price up? At the right cap hit you're probably bidding against a few teams and I don't see how that makes any sense at all for us.

And I don't want to keep bringing up the F-Word, but if they let him walk to turn around and give up serious assets for Boeser a few months later? F*** off.

 

[Minnewildsota]

HE DOES?!?!?!

YES! It's crazy, isn't it!?

 

[Sota Popinski]

What lol

I can think of plenty of tankjobs that didn't result in a team winning the Cup, I've previously said the tank doesn't always win you a Cup. I think this should be directed at someone else.

You're trying to use the Chuck Fletcher's teams as a case study for why Guerin should sell off veteran players that aren't part of the future instead of making improvements to the team. I wouldn't mind trading Dumba for futures but the reporting from the Wild writers is that no one wants him. So you're gonna trade a 10 year veteran and team leader for at best a late 2nd? How is that going to go over with the rest of the team and the fans when you're selling at the deadline while in a playoff position in a very weak Western conference?

 

[Sota Popinski]

Name them.

02 Canes
04 Flames
06 Canes
06 Oilers
11 Bruins
12 Devils
16 Sharks
18 Golden Knights
19 Blues
19 Bruins

To name a few

 

[MK9]

I can’t wait until we have the cap space to send picks and prospects for a number one center. Those will be the days.

Can't tell if you're being facetious nor not. I can't say there is anything I've seen Guerin do or say that makes me believe he'd ever do that. I don't think that mentality changes even after the 2 seasons of buyout misery are over.

 

[BuiumSaveUs]

Can't tell if you're being facetious nor not. I can't say there is anything I've seen Guerin do or say that makes me believe he'd ever do that. I don't think that mentality changes even after the 2 seasons of buyout misery are over.

I believe Guerin will be aggressive in trading futures for impact players when the buyouts are done. I don’t know that I believe he will make good trades or sign the players to good deals, but that’s a different conversation.

 

[MK9]

I believe Guerin will be aggressive in trading futures for impact players when the buyouts are done. I don’t know that I believe he will make good trades or sign the players to good deals, but that’s a different conversation.

Can't say I share that expectation. But, I do agree on the 2nd part. He's made weird trades for players I didn't have much interest in, but for the mostpart seem to have worked out relatively well. But, I've yet to get any sort of inclination that he has any sort of penchant for trading for what you and I might consider "impact players" vs what he thinks are impact players. I hope I'm wrong, but he just comes across as liking low dollar, mid level character guys no matter what he has available to him as assets.

 

[thestonedkoala]

02 Canes
04 Flames
06 Canes
06 Oilers
11 Bruins
12 Devils
16 Sharks
18 Golden Knights
19 Blues
19 Bruins

To name a few

First off you are really reaching when you are using pre-Cap era teams, but:

02 Canes had Ron Francis (4th overall) leading the charge in the regular season and had two other top 10 picks in Jeff O'Neill and through a very convoluted trade Rod Brind'Amour.

04 Flames traded for Jarome Iginla, who was the 11th overall pick. They traded one of their long time players in Joe because they were out of the playoffs and had been for a while. They took advantage of San Jose and their goalie situation.

06 Canes - really? Eric Staal?

06 Oilers - Ryan Smyth, 6th overall, Ales Hemsky 13th overall. They also traded for Chris Pronger, that included a bunch of former top 5 picks to get him.

2011 Bruins they got Seguin in a sign and trade. They also signed Chara.

2012 Devils had Zach Parise (in one of the deepest drafts). They also signed a first overall pick. You can't discount the fact that they had one of the best goaltenders in the history of the game.

2016 - Patrick Marleau, Brent Burns (Devin Setoguchi)

2019 - I don't want to get into this one but they had multiple top 5 picks to help their team.

The only two that I can see is Las Vegas and that was such a bizarre situation and Boston Bruins, but they took advantage one of the deepest drafts.

Minnesota hasn't signed talent or traded for talent like many of these teams. Also some of these teams took a long, long time to marinate.

 

[BagHead]

First off you are really reaching when you are using pre-Cap era teams, but:

02 Canes had Ron Francis (4th overall) leading the charge in the regular season and had two other top 10 picks in Jeff O'Neill and through a very convoluted trade Rod Brind'Amour.

04 Flames traded for Jarome Iginla, who was the 11th overall pick. They traded one of their long time players in Joe because they were out of the playoffs and had been for a while. They took advantage of San Jose and their goalie situation.

06 Canes - really? Eric Staal?

06 Oilers - Ryan Smyth, 6th overall, Ales Hemsky 13th overall. They also traded for Chris Pronger, that included a bunch of former top 5 picks to get him.

2011 Bruins they got Seguin in a sign and trade. They also signed Chara.

2012 Devils had Zach Parise (in one of the deepest drafts). They also signed a first overall pick. You can't discount the fact that they had one of the best goaltenders in the history of the game.

2016 - Patrick Marleau, Brent Burns (Devin Setoguchi)

2019 - I don't want to get into this one but they had multiple top 5 picks to help their team.

The only two that I can see is Las Vegas and that was such a bizarre situation and Boston Bruins, but they took advantage one of the deepest drafts.

Minnesota hasn't signed talent or traded for talent like many of these teams. Also some of these teams took a long, long time to marinate.

Wait... Ron Francis was 38 years old in '02. Rod Brind'Amour was 31 and not playing for his draft team. Jeff O'Neill (25) was the only one that makes sense for your argument, a 5th overall pick 8 years earlier. I'm sure I'll agree with plenty of your choices here, but this is a bad start.

Flames didn't draft Iginla. They were certainly bad for a long time, but didn't get good from drafting top talent. The names they drafted in the first round in their playoff-less years were Daniel Tkaczuk, Rico Fata, Oleg Saprykin, Brent Krahn, Chuck Kobasew, Eric Nystrom, and finally, mercifully, Dion Phaneuf. Worth noting, Dion Phaneuf didn't play in the '04 playoffs. If anything, that string of picks is a cautionary tale about tanking.

'06 Canes and Oilers I can largely agree on.

Seguin was a only small contribution to that team at that time, and Chara wasn't their draft pick. On top of that, he was highly paid.


I'm gonna go ahead and stop here because there seems to be a theme. You seem to be saying that having ANY high pick, whether drafted by the team or not, regardless of age, is enough. Ok, the Wild have MAF. Following that logic, they don't need to tank anymore because they've already got a 1st overall. Maybe I'm being unfair, am I picking up the wrong lesson from your reply?

 

[Sota Popinski]

First off you are really reaching when you are using pre-Cap era teams, but:

02 Canes had Ron Francis (4th overall) leading the charge in the regular season and had two other top 10 picks in Jeff O'Neill and through a very convoluted trade Rod Brind'Amour.

04 Flames traded for Jarome Iginla, who was the 11th overall pick. They traded one of their long time players in Joe because they were out of the playoffs and had been for a while. They took advantage of San Jose and their goalie situation.

06 Canes - really? Eric Staal?

06 Oilers - Ryan Smyth, 6th overall, Ales Hemsky 13th overall. They also traded for Chris Pronger, that included a bunch of former top 5 picks to get him.

2011 Bruins they got Seguin in a sign and trade. They also signed Chara.

2012 Devils had Zach Parise (in one of the deepest drafts). They also signed a first overall pick. You can't discount the fact that they had one of the best goaltenders in the history of the game.

2016 - Patrick Marleau, Brent Burns (Devin Setoguchi)

2019 - I don't want to get into this one but they had multiple top 5 picks to help their team.

The only two that I can see is Las Vegas and that was such a bizarre situation and Boston Bruins, but they took advantage one of the deepest drafts.

Minnesota hasn't signed talent or traded for talent like many of these teams. Also some of these teams took a long, long time to marinate.

Where in my post did I say that these teams didn't have any players who were picked high in the draft? I said these teams weren't considered contenders. They rode a hot goalie, made a smart trade, found value outside of the top 5 picks in the draft.

Your response doesn't even come close to getting the point. These teams weren't built in any way by tanking.

Ron Francis was drafted in the 80s and played for multiple teams between then and 02. Marleau was drafted 17 or 18 years before 2016. Ales Hemsky was the result of a tankjob? Jesus.

 

[AKL]

You're trying to use the Chuck Fletcher's teams as a case study for why Guerin should sell off veteran players that aren't part of the future instead of making improvements to the team. I wouldn't mind trading Dumba for futures but the reporting from the Wild writers is that no one wants him. So you're gonna trade a 10 year veteran and team leader for at best a late 2nd? How is that going to go over with the rest of the team and the fans when you're selling at the deadline while in a playoff position in a very weak Western conference?

I don't think I really care how they feel. It's a GM's job to build a championship team, not babysit feelings.