BertCorbeau
F*ck cancer - RIP Fugu and Buffaloed
I think a better way to phrase is it the person who keeps believing in this core group of players that keep failing
Toronto Maple Leafs: Who Would Replace Kyle Dubas?
- Thread starter Osmows OReilly
- Start date
-
Xenforo Cloud will be upgrading us to version 2.3.5 on March 3rd at 12 AM GMT. This version has increased stability and fixes several bugs. We expect downtime for the duration of the update. The admin team will continue to work on existing issues, templates and upgrade all necessary available addons to minimize impact of this new version. Click Here for Updates
I think a better way to phrase is it the person who keeps believing in this core group of players that keep failing
Osmows OReilly
Registered User
- Jun 26, 2022
- 188
- 547
"For better or worse, I believe in this group and I believe that they are going to get it done and I believe that they're going to win” -K. Dubas.
Last edited:
WildWolfdog
Registered User
- Dec 4, 2008
- 862
- 276
I mean if it's consistently a top 5 team in the league for several years running - then I don't think it's the GM.
If he didn't make any other moves I'd understand - but he's constantly tried adding what we all think the teams needs, size & grit. For whatever reason the big 5 (including Willy) couldn't get it going minus 2-3 series. Plus they've always had to face Boston and Tampa in the first round.
I don't think what you're saying is honest.
acrobaticgoalie
Registered User
- Jun 18, 2014
- 3,468
- 3,561
Well what makes more sense, drafting players who are already producing and have modern day tools/traits like skating, puck skills and hockey IQ, that will continue to improve their numbers? Or does it make sense to draft big players that aren't producing numbers in juniors and hope that they figure out how to play hockey and catch up to the players who are already ahead of them and hope they start to put up numbers?
Not to mention we've been drafting these kids who would fall on draft day due to size mostly and they're not done growing. Many of our prospects have grown since draft day. Holmberg for example was 5'10 and is now 6' and 200lbs. Kral was 5'11 and is now 6'2. Kokkonen was 5'10 and is now 6'. Of those 17 players I listed, only 5 are below 5'11.
So on that list I provided from Hunter's drafts, how do you think that compares in terms of success rate?
... well, except for when they imploded against Montreal and Columbus.
It's entirely on the GM if the team he assembled can't win a playoff series, which in itself is a pathetic goal. This team should have had a few deep runs by now, with this playoffs being the one where they break through. Instead, Kyle's teams have been built for good regular seasons and then playoff disasters. That's fully on the GM's roster design.
1specter
Registered User
- Sep 27, 2016
- 12,863
- 19,478
It really is a travesty how bad those drafts from 2015-2017 were. Outside of the obvious picks and Liljegren, they have nothing to show pretty much.
27 draft picks in that time frame, and we have Marner, Matthews, and Liljegren, all first round picks, one guy who was a first overall and another who was picked 4th overall lol; even Liljegren was viewed as a potential 1st overall/franchise D going into his draft eligible season before his stock fell. Grundstrom and Dermott are the only other ones who have any extensive NHL time, while Woll may or may not be a decent backup goalie at this point. Maybe Kara turns into something? Seems like a stretch though.
The Leafs should've had a second wave of prospects/young players contributing to the roster right now but instead we've had to round out the roster with bargain bin and depth signings, KHLers and NCAA players and relying on trades while Dubas' guys have needed time to develop. And of course this is during the Leafs contention window so they keep having to trade away picks or draft lower which makes it even harder to recoup through the draft.
34
Registered User
- Mar 26, 2010
- 22,119
- 10,016
I'd keep Dubas on
I haven't always agreed with everything he's done but I've been able to understand the logic behind the moves he's made
I can't say that about every GM out there
If they do decide to go in a different direction you would think it will be somebody outside the organization with GM experience who's a little more "old school" but can appreciate some analytics involved in the decision making process
I'm not sure who's out there but that's what I'd expect as a replacement for Dubas
I haven't always agreed with everything he's done but I've been able to understand the logic behind the moves he's made
I can't say that about every GM out there
If they do decide to go in a different direction you would think it will be somebody outside the organization with GM experience who's a little more "old school" but can appreciate some analytics involved in the decision making process
I'm not sure who's out there but that's what I'd expect as a replacement for Dubas
acrobaticgoalie
Registered User
- Jun 18, 2014
- 3,468
- 3,561
Appreciate the work that went into this reply.
I dont believe that all these players will become NHLers but are tracking well enough and have the tools to make it, that I think they have NHL potential. I'll give my best case ceilings for them and where I think they're likely going to end up.
Amirov- I think this kid has the highest ceiling in our pool (top 6). Like you said, his unforseen illness wiped out his development and at this point, we're all hoping he can just live a long healthy life and if he does conquer his disease, he will have an uphill battle.
Knies - ceiling would be top 6. He has size hands and a booming shoot. He has enough potential to be a top 6 complimentary power forward. Most likely ends up a middle 6er. Worst case is probably a bottom 6 physical presence who will bang home a few goals here and there.
Niemela - he was drafted as a very defensive savy D man who was good in transition and has excellent 4 way skating. He showed in the last few years that he can be an excellent offensive pivot as well breaking the U20 scoring record among D men in LIIGA as well as being named best d man at the WJC with 8 pts in 7 games. I think best case, he could become another TJ Brodie. Most likely ends up a solid number 4 and worst case a 3rd pair guy.
Robertson - his injury history is going to hurt his chances of being a long time NHLer. If he can stay healthy enough to put in some full seasons, I think his ceiling is he becomes a 50 pt guy who will put up his points on the PP mostly. At this point I don't think he becomes more than a 3rd line energy guy. He has too much skill, motor to be a minor league lifer imo.
Minten- I don't think he has high enough offensive skills and IQ to be a top 6 guy. I do think he will carve out a solid career with his tools and intangibles to be a 3C mathup center whose Forte will be on the defensive side and be nasty to play against. Like a Bolland. At worst, a 4C. He didn't look much out of place as an 18 yr old in camp. Might be 2 yrs away.
Holmberg- I view as a bigger version of Kerfoot. This guy has succeeded at every level he's played at and I think he can be a Swiss army knife kind of player that will provide 2 way play on any line in a pinch. Most likely a bottom 6, 2 way guy.
Tverberg - has the tools and intangibles to be an energy player and puck hound that will take the puck hard to the net. I think his ceiling is a speedy 4th line energy guy. Most likely an NHL tweener like Steeves or Frattin.
Voit - this is the biggest boom/bust prospect in our pool. This guy has all the tools to be a top 6 playmaker and has been having dominant seasons in the OHL since his draft but I don't think he offers enough, size and intangibles to offer anything if he doesn't make it as a top 6er. Like Bracco. I don't see him panning out but his skill, IQ and primary assist rate can't be slept on.
Hirvonen - this guy has already been a top 6er in a pro league for a few years as a teenager and showed he ca play with elite talent at the WJC. With his playmaking and being an absolute pest of a player I can see him becoming a bottom 6er comparable to Komorov. He has gotten high praise from Wickenheiser as a complete player and a player in our system that is looking like he is about ready. My concern is if his speed can match up to the NHL. I see him as a 4th liner or 13th forward.
Kral - smart, good skating, 6'2, 2 way D man. I view him as a bottom pair D man that will be decent in his own end and can help transition the puck up ice. Maybe a 7th D.
Villeneuve - same as Kral. Villeneuve has shown great poise under pressure. Maybe a #4 best case scenario but I think he is a bottom pair ot tweener in the same mold as Kral.
Grebenkin - what we've seen so far in the KHL, he has the size and speed at 6'2 to become a possible 3rd liner like Mikheyev. He has the speed and hands going for him and takes the puck hard to the net. He's also shown pretty good playmaking and production in a league where teenagers don't usually get the opportunity. Having said that, these Russian players are always complete mysteries until they come over. He most likely doesn't become anything more than a KHL lifer.
Abruzzese - he has a high hockey Iq and has been heating up as of late in his first year with the Marlies. I dont see him bringing enough to the table to be anything more than a Petan fill in type. Likely the same with SDA.
Moldenhauer - it's too hard to Guage what his potential is right now because he is still playing in the USHL but he's having another solid season and has good tools and offensive potential to be considered a decent B prospect. Will get a better read on him next year in the NCAA. Most likely an AHLer.
Hildeby - 6'6 behemoth of a goalie with good tools and athleticism. Having another outstanding season in a pro league. Will need to see him in NA to get a better Guage on his potential but he is tracking very well to be considered an NHL prospect.
hotpaws
Registered User
- Nov 21, 2009
- 22,088
- 6,661
does he actually believe in the core or is he just saying that because he's stuck with an 11m ufa core piece that he signed and can't move?I think a better way to phrase is it the person who keeps believing in this core group of players that keep failing
I'll put it this way , which one of the ''core pieces'' would you have moved that would have made sense and made the team better after last seasons failure ?
Mathews - you don't move one of the best players in the league
Marner - do you move one of the top wingers in the league who also drives the play and consistently leads your team in production , you could but i doubt you'd win that deal
Willie - an uber talented winger who keeps getting better and the return would be good but then you have the problem that he only makes 7m so it would be extremely difficult to get better when we don't have the cap to take more money back in a trade
so that leaves Dubies big free agent splash who has a nmc and isn't worth his cap hit which basically forces Dubie to constantly say he believes in the core because he really has no other choice but to say that
Last edited:
Leaf Fans
Registered User
- Sep 29, 2017
- 21,375
- 9,345
hotpaws
Registered User
- Nov 21, 2009
- 22,088
- 6,661
i've said it before and i'll say it again , most players bust or amount to nothing replacement type level players regardless of size and all kids that age fill out and get stronger but not many grow taller and you should know better that to believe all our smaller kids magically grow an inch or two after we draft them , sure we list them all taller but few actually have grown
and my point wasn't that we should draft big unskilled players but that prospects like Abruzzesse/Voight type very rarely pan out as we've seen multiple times regardless of the points they point up in lower leagues so constantly pimping the latest batch is foolish
Last edited:
Lemontree
Fire Dubas
- Feb 12, 2018
- 1,424
- 1,601
I think this is excellent and thoughtful work by you and I think you are being very realistic in your evaluation. I have very similar thoughts on the upside and realistic projection of almost all of the players noted above.
I think our disconnect is that I don't believe this is sufficient drafting (and development) going back to 2018 draft to consider Dubas a good drafting GM. I do appreciate that you are a good poster with very good insight and we just view Dubas and the job he has done (to date) differently.
acrobaticgoalie
Registered User
- Jun 18, 2014
- 3,468
- 3,561
Obviously they don't all make it but if you keep betting on talent, eventually you'll end up with a Marchand level player. It's not like every one of our prospects is 5'9. The average height of our prospects is probably closer to 6'.
They aren't just listed taller than they were at the draft. You can tell that they are bigger. Holmberg looks 6'. Kokkonen looks 6', Kral clearly looks big out there at 6'2.
If you want bigger players that have all the tools, you have to select in the first round. Those players aren't normally available past the 2nd. We were lucky to even get Knies. If you keep drafting higher talent players that fall in the draft, you are more likely to churn out some NHLers. Carolina has been one of the better drafting teams in the last 10 yrs or so and still have a solid pool because they do the same thing.
Like I said, our pool looks much more promising now than it did under Burke, Nonis or Lou. All those bigger players that weren't producing at lower leagues never amounted to anything. A lot of them weren't even making an impact in the AHL.
All you need is a few forwards and a few D to turn out every few years and we have a deep enough pool that a few should turn out.
Stephen
Moderator
- Feb 28, 2002
- 82,913
- 61,680
I don't agree that just because you can follow along logically to a GM's thought process that it makes them better than someone else. That's a low bar and kind of exemplified by the McGoalie vs Sparks thought process. He made a correct logical calculation but lacked the real insight to making the correct decision.
That said, I do agree with you that keeping Dubas might be the best decision. For me, I see a lot of regular season success and a young core. I think a business as usual approach allows Toronto to re-sign the core to their next contracts and keep kicking the can at this, keep getting chances as opposed to artificially giving up and throwing the whole thing out the window.
I think Dubas has gotten better over time, the 2019-20 Leafs team was the worst version and it's gotten better over time. There are certain decisions like the Tavares signing that have long term impact on how things are done with the rest of the roster, but that's baked in now.
usernamezrhardtodo
Registered User
- Mar 26, 2014
- 2,503
- 3,070
If I remember correctly from past Dubas interviews. He defended picking smaller players because he said he could trade those players for guys with less skill but more size/grit. It seems on the surface at least to be a good idea. The only problem is none of the small guys panned out to the point that anyone would want them (DeBrincat as an example)...so the idea was good at first...but it just didn't work so far and I think they are dialing it back a bit when drafting.
The drafting of Minten would not have happened a few years ago because his upside would have been considered to be too low. Now they look at that type of "Not crazy upside but useful lower in the lineup if he doesn't reach his potential vs having a guy who either plays on your top 6 or is in the minors forever like Petan.
I am more pissed that Hunter and Lou drafted so poorly that we are just tickled pink that a player can come up from the minors and play on the 4th line.
I still think a lot of this smaller skilled stuff is from Shanny and Dubas has been trying to ease his way around it.
Stephen
Moderator
- Feb 28, 2002
- 82,913
- 61,680
I gotta say, I hated that line of thinking from day one.
Like if we had Alex DeBrincat and he emerged as a 40 goal scorer, I have a hard time believing we would have flipped him for a meat and potatoes guy. Conversely, a Nick Robertson doesn't carry much trade value if he doesn't pan out.
Like I always said, that BPA selection needs to take into account a number of factors and size, position, play style should factor into a diverse draft class.
Menzinger
Kessel4LadyByng
I don't think he's jump straight into a GN job, but it seems as if he will eventually end up with an official AGM title. Mirtle has said he spends a ton of time with Dubas' and Shanny.
I'd see him more as a longer term project from a front office perspective
Menzinger
Kessel4LadyByng
Though funnily enough the Leafs went out of their way avoiding the higher ranked but smaller and skilled DeBrincat in 2016 for the larger more agressive Korshkov.
But I get your wider point here about diversity and the prospectpool
hotpaws
Registered User
- Nov 21, 2009
- 22,088
- 6,661
if you actually took a look at who Carolina hit on with their draft picks after the 2nd rd you'd see they've all been big guys
2012 - Slavin 6'3''
2013 - Pesce 6'3''
even their lesser hits have all been big guys
- Foegele
- Roy
- Geekie
hell i can't find even one pick outside of Wallmark in 2014 who played a somewhat decent amount of games (184) who was sub '6 feet and he's been back in Europe for a couple of years now
you can find bigger guys lower and i have no idea how you can keep saying Dubas has drafted great when all we have so far is a bottom pair D on our roster and another D playing well in LA , you can also throw in PH as a 3/4 liner , basically it's all hope and i've been listening to how great our drafts have been every year since i've been on this board
acrobaticgoalie
Registered User
- Jun 18, 2014
- 3,468
- 3,561
This is the sort of discourse we need more of on this board. Healthy debate with points being made both ways is much more informative and productive. Instead this board is full of people who talk out their ass and just make claims based out of pure ignorance, bias or negativity.
I believe the way we have been drafting, we will start to see positive results in the next couple years. Especially since Dubas and Co. have diversified the pool a little bit the last couple drafts with some bigger players like Knies, Minten and Grebenkin who still posess a good amount of skill.
hotpaws
Registered User
- Nov 21, 2009
- 22,088
- 6,661
I agree with your 1st paragraph but why would a new GM trade or let AM/MM/WN walk ?
if we fail this year either Dubas or a new GM has to get JT to agree to waive his nmc , you can't keep walking it back every yeatr while burning assets every t/d to try to shore up the holes
Stephen
Moderator
- Feb 28, 2002
- 82,913
- 61,680
I think keeping Dubas just creates a business as usual atmosphere which has a certain value in making sure the Big 3 feel comfortable to keep going.
On the flip side I'm not sure what the new GM is going to do with this roster that Dubas wouldn't be doing if they don't blow it up? Until the cap increases and Tavares is off the books, it's basically a money ball dance every year, and he would be trying to get guys like ROR and Acciari, whom I approve of.
phillipmike
Registered User
- Oct 27, 2009
- 12,944
- 9,094
Not much out there for GM that are currently available imo.
Two names that are currently employed but could be available in the off-season is Preds GM, David Poile and Capitals GM, Brian MacLellan.
Poile born and raised in Toronto. Always had teams built through the draft and he currently has signed 1 year deals over the last 2-3 years. So you don’t need permission to speak to him. His contract will expire at the end of the year and he could want to come to Toronto with the most talent he ever had and resources to spend. Could bring in his guy Trotz again.
MacLellan’s record isn’t that impressive with the Caps outside of the cup year. But he has experience with a core of superstars in Washington that had regular season success but didn’t have much success in the playoffs. But could be on the hot seat with an aging core and team that may miss the playoffs.
If both Shanny and Dubas are canned, maybe Poile takes the president position if he doesn’t want to do the day to day, hires MacLellan as GM and to repeat history, MacLellan hires Trotz.
Can’t go with a rookie president, a rookie GM and a rookie coach again. Experience all around with Poile, MacLellan and Trotz would be ideal.
Two names that are currently employed but could be available in the off-season is Preds GM, David Poile and Capitals GM, Brian MacLellan.
Poile born and raised in Toronto. Always had teams built through the draft and he currently has signed 1 year deals over the last 2-3 years. So you don’t need permission to speak to him. His contract will expire at the end of the year and he could want to come to Toronto with the most talent he ever had and resources to spend. Could bring in his guy Trotz again.
MacLellan’s record isn’t that impressive with the Caps outside of the cup year. But he has experience with a core of superstars in Washington that had regular season success but didn’t have much success in the playoffs. But could be on the hot seat with an aging core and team that may miss the playoffs.
If both Shanny and Dubas are canned, maybe Poile takes the president position if he doesn’t want to do the day to day, hires MacLellan as GM and to repeat history, MacLellan hires Trotz.
Can’t go with a rookie president, a rookie GM and a rookie coach again. Experience all around with Poile, MacLellan and Trotz would be ideal.
