Dubas no longer has that blow it up ability. He walked a plank.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Who Would Replace Kyle Dubas?
- Thread starter Osmows OReilly
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acrobaticgoalie
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- Jun 18, 2014
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Because a majority of his picks are 21 and under. Too young to be making NHL impacts yet. A lot of them are just in their 1st or 2nd years in the AHL. Some of our Euro prospects have still been under contract in Europe.
His first draft in 2018 has had 6 players that have played NHL games. Knies will likely sign when his NCAA season is done. Niemela, Hirvonen, Tverberg, Villeneuve, Minten aren't far from making NHL debuts either.
Lemontree
Fire Dubas
- Feb 12, 2018
- 1,424
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So its far too early to consider him a good drafting GM. Knies will likely play after NCAA season ends but what's a realistic upside for him? Start off as a 3rd line winger and hope he grows into a 2nd line winger? Not sure what "far from making NHL debuts" timeline is to you however none of these 3 are remotely close to being NHL players currently. This seems like the normal excitement over most prospects because they aren't bottom line players on their junior teams.
acrobaticgoalie
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I think that's the most likely scenario for Knies. When I say not far off from making their debuts, some of the guys I mentioned got good looks I'm camp/preseason this year and did not look out of place like Kral and Villeneuve and they are having good seasons with the Marlies. Guys like Niemela and Hirvonen have already been playing pro men's hockey for 4 yrs and just need to come over to NA. Wickenheiser praised Hirvonen for his complete game and motor. Niemela still needs to fill out though. I wouldn't be surprised if Tverberg follows a similar trajectory to Hyman in terms of timeline.
Obviously we can say that every team can get excited about prospects and they remain just that till they show it at the NHL level but when we look at the development of our prospects that have been drafted by Dubas/Lilly and see how they are performing in their D+1-4 seasons and compare them to the drafting and development under Lou/Hunter, Nonis/Morrison, Burke/Morrison, it's no contest.
I’m not buying that we have more than bottom six and bottom pairing prospects but goal is improved. Too many lost picks and own rentals to judge but who is that on? Our pool isn’t that hot.
Our farm system is ranked around 18-22, depending on what scout you ask. Let's not pretend Kyle presided over an elite drafting era. As a GM, his drafts have been a bunch of meh.
We line up 4v5 which is Tampa. Second round is Boston in both formats
Also,
To be the man….
For the people complaining about having to get through 2 top 5 teams to get to the conf finals (Boston and Tampa), Toronto had the worse ranked team in Columbus in 2020 and Montreal (18th ranked in the nhl in the weakest division might I add) in 2021 and still lost.
Wasn't that pretty much the JFJ resume?
John Ferguson Jr. - Wikipedia
Brisebois was with the Canadians for 9 seasons. He was also vice president of operations
Then 3 years as bulldog GM
He then spent 8 years with Tampa and vast majority under Yzerman
That's total of 20 years of NHL experience in executive
Their profile may look the same, the style is totally different.
There are a lot of NHL GM's have the same background has Dubas's. That doesn't mean Dubas is one of them
Community
44 is Rielly good
1-8 would not have Toronto facing Boston 2nd round if there is a single upset. I hate the guarantee, not top teams vs top teams.
Also not a guarantee this will be the matchip at the end of the year, but it's closing in on guarantee under the current matchup. Not only does 1-8 make more sense for the playoffs, it also keeps people more engaged during the wind-down of the regular season.
Does nobody understand that both can be true? That the Leafs choked against easier teams and then lost tough battles against good teams In the past? Also just because the Leafs team 2 & 3 years choked, doesn't mean they would against an easier team this year.
BertCorbeau
F*ck cancer - RIP Fugu and Buffaloed
Context does matter here. From a strict draft POV, he's had 2 first round picks in 5 years. One late (Sandin) another in the mid rounds (Amirov). In Amirov's case that's been unexpected bad luck with his health.
A lack of first round picks absolutely impacts the high end potential of a prospect pool... which is common for a team in the league that sits at the top of the standings as the Leafs have in the regular season.
Another key point is timing. Drafting/developing takes time to unfold and we're just seeing that with Dubas' drafts now. Mid to late round picks can take multiple years to develop. Look at the players drafted beyond the first round since 2018 and you'll see how few players have made an impact. It's hard to say how things could be better.
So we're left with how players have tracked in their career. And there are a lot of positive development curves that warrant Dubas some praise for drafted well to provide the team with potential NHL talent.
They're not top line or top 6 players, but there is still depth there. Which is why the prospect pool is rated as it is. And that depth can be attributed to some solid mid to late round drafting. Plus Dubas' has done well to find some talent the second round (Robertson, Knies) that, in redrafts, would likely be first round picks.
It amazes me how many people consider making it to the second/third round as a success. Is that when you’ll show up for the parade?
My point is, remember the regimes before Dubas and Shanahan. We were begging for an early playoff exit for a decade.
hotpaws
Registered User
- Nov 21, 2009
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Never said winning a rd was a success, hell 30 out of 32 teams have won a rd in the cap era so it’s hardly any type of accomplishment .
The issue is you and others keep acting like Dubas walked into a bottom end team and built it from scratch during the course of his first summer as GM . The fact is he took over a young elite core and has done nothing to advance it .
Canadian Finn
Oskee Wee Wee
These are all fair points but they exist in a vacuum of just the Leafs. I'd love to see how Dubas' drafts stacked up against other GMs in that stretch, facing comparable circumstances. I'd wager that the often-overrated Dubas doesn't stack up very well but I'd be happy to eat crow.
He is over rated , he didn't keep picks then said look at my 5th rounder. Being 20th in the east and no results...lame. I'm prepared to fire .
acrobaticgoalie
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You already said it yourself that the Leafs rank 18-22. Using the Hockey writers rankings for example, they have;
TB -32nd
COL -31st
BOS - 29th
PIT - 28th
NYI - 27th
FLA - 26th
LV - 25th
WAS - 23rd
NYR - 21st
EDM - 20th
TOR - 19th
STL - 18th
CAR - 15th
NAS - 13th
DAL - 11th
CAL - 7th
Those are all the teams that have either been playoff teams or contenders during Dubas' tenure. Considering the Leafs haven't been drafting in the first round, I would say that the Leafs sit pretty well since they've been at the top of the standings every one of those years, wouldn't you?
Also when I look at the pools of some of the teams ahead of us, including teams that have bottomed out and been drafting in the 1st round, I would say the Leafs have more depth. Some of these teams are ahead of because they drafted in the first round and have prospects like Zary or Mavrik Bourque. Then you look at the Leafs and they've got a lot of players coming out of nowhere in later rounds like Voit being a top 5 player in the OHL as a 5th rounder, Tverberg being a near ppg player in the NCAA as a 7th and almost making team Canada, Grebenkin ripping up the KHL right now as a teenager and was a 5th rounder, Knies and Robertson doing what they've done post drafts as 2nd rounders, Niemela and Hirvonen both being very successful at the pro level in Finland and at the WJC.
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colchar
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- Apr 26, 2012
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You didn't. You broke it. No reason for anybody to hope for that. Please don't quote me and change my words.
Atomos2
Registered User
Gary Nylund
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- Oct 10, 2013
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Well you just said progress is a success.
Kyle Dubas has had more progress in the success department than any other Leafs GM in quite some time. Look it up.
Progress doesn’t guarantee a championship though.
The eglinton LRT has seen 7 years of progress, do you want to hire the ceo of that fiasco?
The leafs had a record setting season last year. Progress? Not the kind we prefer, but it’s progress, or are we cherry picking what progress is to fill our narrative?
Sens locked up their young elite core last summer and it was the summer of Pierre… team went where?
With his track record, age and ability you don’t just kick rocks because it’s been a hard road.
Life is hard. Do you fire your spouse because they didn’t win the lottery numbers you play yet?
Winning a cup takes a lot of intangibles and luck is apart of it.
What I said was let’s be careful what we wish for, change for the sake of change Doesn’t guarantee the PROGRESS we’re all wanting.
I even offered a critique about the bloated core, but to me, to fire someone for sticking to their guns without having a complete national disaster result from that decision is lazy and stupid.
kevsh
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- Nov 28, 2018
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"Change for the sake of change' is not what is being suggested, nor should we believe that whomever decides on who the next GM will be is thinking that way. If MLSE believes that Dubas' vision for building a championship team is flawed then they should try to bring in someone who has a different view. Of course, preferably someone with a track record of success.
And no change at any level is going to guarantee success but if you keep rewarding failure, i.e. extending Dubas if the Leafs have another disappointing post-season, it could be interpreted in the locker room (the only place that really matters) that success is optional.
And all the teams with the #1-#5 farm systems are praying their prospects turn out like Matthews/Marner/Nylander/Lily
No way you're seriously using this as a measuring stick lmao
"Top 5 team in the league has a mediocre farm system!"
Probably because they're one of the best teams in the world and have been a top 5 team for multiple years now, we're not drafting top 5 anymore that we're going to be stacking up on prospects.
