- Oct 12, 2012
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You make it sound like a guarantee that he will achieve that even though he has managed that exactly 1 time in 8 years in the NHL.
Proposal: Toronto - Calgary
- Thread starter Amadeus
- Start date
My bad. I wish I had players that could produce at the pace that JVR is producing right now and has produced in the last 5 years by simply giving them more minutes. Glad that validates the comment I quoted
- Oct 12, 2012
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I'm not knocking JVR, he's a very good player and I am personally not a fan of when people claim anyone's numbers are only because he played with "so-and-so", they will not produce if they aren't good enough but that said playing with better (or lesser) linemates certainly doesn't hurt and I think everyone can agree there is more of a benefit to playing with Kessel and Bozak than Bouma/Frolik and Colborne (Backlund's main wingers the last 2 seasons and both Bouma and Colborne shattered career highs playing with Backlund).My bad. I wish I had players that could produce at the pace that JVR is producing right now and has produced in the last 5 years by simply giving them more minutes. Glad that validates the comment I quoted
But pointing out the difference in PP usage or ES production I do believe is fair. When looking at the numbers for the past 4 full seasons I see the following JVR with 250 GP, 124 ESP (0.496/GP) and Backlund with 242 GP, 94 ESP (0.388/GP); pro-rated over an 82 game season that is a difference of 8.856 points with JVR playing about a minute and a half more per game at ES. So as most of us have concluded JVR is a better offensive player, however, I do not think the gap is as large as it is being made out to be considering the quality of their linemates and ice-time.
However Backlund also plays over a minute and a half per game on the PK (keep in mind the Flames did not take many penalties under Hartley) and always played a shutdown role (lots of defensive zone starts). I honestly believe if Backlund produced more points he would be a Selke candidate. Now for some context for that statement, it took me a long time to come around on Backlund because of his injury issues, so me saying this will probably shock even my fellow Flames fans.
I really think the gap between the players as whole is negligible and if a GM had the choice it would come down to team needs.
Wouldn't wanna lose out on all those superstars for a scrub like JVR, I understand.
I wouldn't trade JVR straight up for that group of garbage.
- Oct 12, 2012
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If you are calling them garbage, it is pretty obvious that is you that should be laughed at.
Wouldn't wanna lose out on all those superstars for a scrub like JVR, I understand.
I wouldn't trade JVR straight up for that group of garbage.
Randy Randerson
Registered User
His career pace while on the Leafs is 29.79 goals and 59.887pts per 82 games, calling him a 30/30 guys is a tiny exaggeration but very close to accurate. 267 games worth of data. His two 80+ game seasons were 30-31-61 and 27-29-56, which were bookended by a lockout shortened year and the only substantial injury time season last year where he missed half a season
Edit: my numbers didn't include his 7 games of playoffs as a leaf, but he was 2-5-7 in those games for a ppg pace so it would improve the numbers
He played with Kessel while he was here mostly, and was 2nd on the team in scoring every year but the first year because Kadri had a ridiculous rookie season. Also maintained his point/goal pace last year without Kessel, has never been worse than the 2nd best guy on his line so you could argue he got a little bump from Kessel but not major inflation
I do see Marner as inflating his numbers a bit this year, but his pace is significantly better than the rest of his leafs career
FWIW, I don't see any of the flames assets in the OP as garbage, Backlund especially is a very useful piece with stellar defense. I wouldn't make the trade because of how good I think JVR is
- Oct 12, 2012
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Yeah "pace" is the key word, if pace counted Backlund would be a 45 point centre but he's not because he hasn't been healthy enough.
Also if you read my following posts I did not mean it as a knock on JVR, he is a very good player and if he leaves the Leafs as a UFA in 2018 I hope the Flames target him. I just think Backlund is every bit better defensively than JVR is offensively, that is all and I think it is a very fair analysis of the two players; the only difference is if we post any evidence they're just considered fancy stats.
Randy Randerson
Registered User
If you want to discount JVR from being a 30/30 guy, you have to ignore the statistical evidence to do so (or have something against rounding to whole numbers, I guess)
I would give Backlund credit as a 45 pt centre. Over about the same number of his most recent games (since 2012/2013 season) he's an 18.29 goal 42.89pt player, which is better than his career average and I would favour more recent data over the whole set as long as it's enough, which I think ~250 games is
- Oct 12, 2012
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I'm mot ignoring anything, to be considered a 30/30 guy, to be be a 50 goal guy, you need to actually accomplish it more than once. It also drove me nuts when Flames fans would call Curtis Glencross a 25 goal/50 point guy based on his pace. It's just a pet peeve, I'm not discounting anything about JVR's abilities. Think of it like how some people get all bent out of shape when someone says irregardless.
Menzinger
Kessel4LadyByng
And you should take into account that some players get bvalued more by their teams than their abstract trade value.
No sane GM is going to move a first line scorer signed for less than 5 million per for a 3rd line utility/role guy (even a good one).
Randy Randerson
Registered User
I think when you don't have the opportunity to play 80+ game seasons, it's not realistic to expect that a guy produces the pace that you can realistically claim for him. To me, if a guy scores 50 goals then 45 goals in back to back full seasons, and maintains that pace for a half season on either side of those two seasons I have no issue calling that player a 50 goal guy
If a guy consistently misses time for injury, I understand discounting the likelihood of him playing a full season
I like to think of it in terms of what you could expect from a player given that he plays a full season and gets the same opportunity as he did when producing the pace.
I think it's fair to expect JVR to be first line winger who will put up in the neighbourhood of 30 goals and 30 assists over a full season playing on a decent scoring line and getting first unit PP opportunity - and possibly better if he plays with linemates who are good enough to inflate his numbers like we're seeing right now with Marner - ie if he was playing with Malkin or Crosby, I think he could easily be better than 30/30. You could say that there's an injury concern with him after missing half of last year, but it's the first significant time he's missed and hasn't shown any signs of a recurrence so I think that concern is dissapating with each passing game
but fair enough, seems like a difference of preference on terminology
- Oct 12, 2012
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Backlund is a clear cut 2nd line two-way centre, calling him a 3rd line utility guy is nothing short of a joke.
Randy Randerson
Registered User
His point production doesn't land him in the "clear cut 2nd line centre" category, even if he gets credit as a 45pt center. That would be poor 2nd line/good 3rd line production. I can't speak to the opportunity he's gotten to be a 2nd liner, but the results haven't happened to make it clear cut
His skillset as a very good defender would also be more typically deployed on a 3rd line, no?
RomanianLeafs
Registered User
Volica
Papa Shango
- May 15, 2012
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40-50 point centres are 2Cs in today's NHL except if you're lucky to have two generational talents (Pittsburgh) or an elite Winger you can hide on another line away from your 1C (Chicago).
OvermanKingGainer
#BennettFreed #CurseofTheSpulll #FreeOliver
Backlund isn't a "very good defender" in the sense of being a checker. He's a very good defender in terms of being a defensively excellent play-driving center who is literally making every linemate he ever has, from Lance Bouma to Joe Colborne to David Jones to 18 year olds into 2nd line point producers with perennially positive on-ice goal differentials against other team's 1st and 2nd lines.
He's also stuck playing 2nd unit PP where a lot of 2nd line centers play 1st unit PP. You think that doesn't influence point totals?
Backlund is a 2C. If he had 1st line wingers he might even produce like a lower tier 1C, we'll never know as he'll always be saddled down by 40 point guys like Frolik and rookies. Look at Paul Stastny as a comparable, Stastny with MacKinnon and Landeskog was a 70 point guy. Stastny with more typical middle sixer linemates is producing not unlike Backlund.
Randy Randerson
Registered User
Ya, modern NHL those play-driving possession players with excellent possession/shot suppression advanced stats I think play mostly 3rd line roles unless they produce offense
If he's getting PP time, even 2nd unit (which is where most 2nd line centres factor in), I think his production should be better to call him a 2nd line centre. He's close to it, and I wouldn't say that having him on your 2nd line is bad, but if he's the best offensive player on your 2nd line it probably doesn't produce enough, and most 2nd line centres don't get to play with 1st line wingers regularly. Bouma never produced at a 2nd line clip, Colborne was very very borderline for one year in Calgary - I agree neither is an average caliber player that a 2nd line centre would play with
I think the numbers show much more clearly that JVR is a first line winger than Backlund is a 2nd line centre
I'm not trying to trash Backlund at all, I just don't think you'll find that he's perceived as a 2nd line centre and I think that's affirmed after looking at his numbers. I don't think JVR gets credit as a 1st line winger either, but looking at his production its very hard to make an argument that he isn't - below average on the defensive side albeit
OvermanKingGainer
#BennettFreed #CurseofTheSpulll #FreeOliver
Well you're wrong. Most NHL 2nd lines have one 1st liner. Sometimes that is the center ( a la Jason Spezza or Malkin) but sometimes it is a winger (Tarasenko, Panarin, Kessel, Toffoli etc). The FLames don't have a 1st liner on their 2nd line which is not a knock on Backlund it is just a function of our youth. If Backlund played with Tarasenko instead of Frolik, they would be one of the best 2nd lines in the NHL, and Backlund's production would be significantly higher than it is.
Sorry but Backlund is more of a true top six forward as a centre than Sean Monahan is, and most Leafs fans would trade JVR for Monny.
Sorry but Backlund is more of a true top six forward as a centre than Sean Monahan is, and most Leafs fans would trade JVR for Monny.
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- Oct 12, 2012
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He's coming off a 47 point season that saw him ranked 50th in points and 29th in goals, all while being his teams best defensive forward. I'm not sure how you can call that anything but 2nd line production.
Menzinger
Kessel4LadyByng
Yes, but that's his only noteworthy offensive season.
He's on pace for a 31 point season this year.
He's a good and useful player, he just doesn't have the consistency to be a proven scoring line player in the NHL.
- Oct 12, 2012
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He's been at least a 0.5 point per game pace for the past 4 seasons, his problem has been his health not his actual production. It's hilarious that JVR gets his tires pumped because of his pace, then it gets ignored when it comes to other players. And you guys keep bringing up this year like it is the be all and end all, but guess what? JVR will see his shooting percentage come back down from 16% to his usual ~11% and Backlund's will rise from 2.6% to his usual ~9.5%.
Menzinger
Kessel4LadyByng
You're right that one player will likely regress a bit and the other pick up their scoring pace.
I expect JVR to finish in the 55-60 point range. And Backlund to finish in the 35-40 point range as both players likely settle back into their career norms.
And I think this will still show one of them clearly having more value.
Diatomic
Mitch Matthewlander
Randy Randerson
Registered User
I will disagree on both points. Really good teams might have a guy who is worthy of playing on the 1st line playing on the second, on an average team if there's a 1st liner on the 2nd line then the 1st line has someone on it who isn't deserving. Both the Spezza and Malkin examples show this to be true, there's 3rd liners in both teams top 6 (and it looks like Spezza might be playing 3rd line right wing). All the examples that you've given are from teams that finished in the top 8 in the league last year, they're all elite teams not average teams
Anyway, let's simplify it and take deployment out of it - Backlund in his best year just sneaks into the top 6 producing forwards on a middle of the pack team,
Detroit finished 15th last year, for example:
http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0000342016.html
In an average year, he slides out of the top 6 scorers for an average team, so I don't think he's a legitimate second line centre. And at best it's debatable. I will give him credit as an ideal 3rd line centre - high end production for the role plus defense
I will disagree on Monahan, even including his understandably low scoring rookie year, he's 38th in the league in scoring among centres with 100GP and 26th excluding the rookie year. He's already a low end 1st line centre already and has upside. If you want trade us Monahan for JVR, but not Backlund, we would gladly accept
47 pts is the high water mark of his career and nearly 20% better than the pace of the entire career. being the 50th best producing centre would make him a low end 2nd liner (right at the 33.3rd percentile of the bell curve), and that's his best outing
You literally just said that JVR shouldn't be called a 30/30 guy because only done it once, despite maintaining a pace that is very close to that for his entire leafs career, so if you want to call Backlund a 47pt centre while not maintaining a pace close to that for the same period of time then that is worse than hypocrisy because Backlund hasn't repeated that kind of scoring over any significant period.
