Proposal: Toronto - Calgary

[CantLoseWithMatthews]

Horrible from the Leafs perspective, but Flames fans doing a good job feigning disinterest so I'll give them credit

 

[Lunatik]

47 pts is the high water mark of his career and nearly 20% better than the pace of the entire career. being the 50th best producing centre would make him a low end 2nd liner (right at the 33.3rd percentile of the bell curve), and that's his best outing

You literally just said that JVR shouldn't be called a 30/30 guy because only done it once, despite maintaining a pace that is very close to that for his entire leafs career, so if you want to call Backlund a 47pt centre while not maintaining a pace close to that for the same period of time then that is worse than hypocrisy because Backlund hasn't repeated that kind of scoring over any significant period.

You keep talking about things you really have no cllue about or do not understand. Sure last season was his career high, but pointing out how it compares to his career average is pretty stupid when he struggled offensively for his first few years in the league. The 3 seasons prior to his 47 points, he averaged 42 points per 82 games (averages of 41, 42 and 43 per 82 games; in that order) so that 47 points is really not all that shocking when all he did differently is stay healthy. And yes 50th points is low end 2nd liner, but 29th in goals is low end 1st liner; when you combine that with his two-way ability he would be a second liner on a good chunk of NHL teams.

I never called Backlund a 47 point player, I said he is coming off a 47 point season and that he is a second liner. I have never disputed any Leafs fan calling the almighty JVR a first liner so I'm not sure what issue you are fabricating in your mind. Perhaps you should work on your reading comprehension before you call someone a hypocrite.

 

[Lunatik]

Horrible from the Leafs perspective, but Flames fans doing a good job feigning disinterest so I'll give them credit

Why would we be interested? The Flames biggest issues are penalty killing and defense. How does moving our best 2 defensive forwards and best 2 penalty killers help the team? Just so we can pick up what would be our #2LW and #3C? It literally makes no sense for the Flames.

 

[67Cup]

Why would we be interested? The Flames biggest issues are penalty killing and defense. How does moving our best 2 defensive forwards and best 2 penalty killers help the team? Just so we can pick up what would be our #2LW and #3C? It literally makes no sense for the Flames.

I see your point. On the other hand if, as you state, penalty killing and defense are the biggest issues for the Flames, why should other teams pay highly for the forwards who do the penalty killing and are the defensive keys for the team? They can't be doing that great a job, can they?

I don't think there is a match here.

 

[East Coast Icestyle]

I don't think there is a match here.

Pretty sure that's what we have been saying

 

[67Cup]

Pretty sure that's what we have been saying

Sure enough, but the lack of a match isn't for the reason you think it is.

 

[East Coast Icestyle]

Sure enough, but the lack of a match isn't for the reason you think it is.

Regardless, both sides thing it's a crappy trade

 

[Lunatik]

I see your point. On the other hand if, as you state, penalty killing and defense are the biggest issues for the Flames, why should other teams pay highly for the forwards who do the penalty killing and are the defensive keys for the team? They can't be doing that great a job, can they?

I don't think there is a match here.

Both Backlund and Frolik have played very well. Teams can be poor at things as a whole and still have individuals do them well. The problem more than anything has been the play of out defensemen, not our forwards. Moving Backlund & Frolik for inferior defensive players would extrapolate the issues.

 

[Lunatik]

Sure enough, but the lack of a match isn't for the reason you think it is.

Right, please continue telling us all about how the great almighty JVR is the far superior player to Backlund.

 

[67Cup]

Could be, I suppose. But you would have to work pretty hard to argue that somebody ought to pay high for penalty killers on the 29th ranked PK in the league. I could see an argument being made that over a period of time, they are better than that stat would indicate. As a resident of Vancouver and a Leafs fan, I am not up on the Flames as you are so I'll take your word that this is the case. If that is so, maybe some team would see a market opportunity there to "buy low and sell high." But note, that approach only works if the purchaser can indeed "buy low." Sending you JVR etc isn't buying low.

Actually, I think the Leafs are probably pretty happy with their PK right now, with a couple of rookies being key forwards on the 10th ranked PK in the league. I can't see acquiring PK forwards being a priority. Overall team D does have to improve, but the pressing need is more on the blueline, IMO.

 

[Randy Randerson]

Yeah "pace" is the key word, if pace counted Backlund would be a 45 point centre but he's not because he hasn't been healthy enough.

Also if you read my following posts I did not mean it as a knock on JVR, he is a very good player and if he leaves the Leafs as a UFA in 2018 I hope the Flames target him. I just think Backlund is every bit better defensively than JVR is offensively, that is all and I think it is a very fair analysis of the two players; the only difference is if we post any evidence they're just considered fancy stats.

I'm mot ignoring anything, to be considered a 30/30 guy, to be be a 50 goal guy, you need to actually accomplish it more than once. It also drove me nuts when Flames fans would call Curtis Glencross a 25 goal/50 point guy based on his pace. It's just a pet peeve, I'm not discounting anything about JVR's abilities. Think of it like how some people get all bent out of shape when someone says irregardless.

He's coming off a 47 point season that saw him ranked 50th in points and 29th in goals, all while being his teams best defensive forward. I'm not sure how you can call that anything but 2nd line production.

You keep talking about things you really have no cllue about or do not understand. Sure last season was his career high, but pointing out how it compares to his career average is pretty stupid when he struggled offensively for his first few years in the league. The 3 seasons prior to his 47 points, he averaged 42 points per 82 games (averages of 41, 42 and 43 per 82 games; in that order) so that 47 points is really not all that shocking when all he did differently is stay healthy. And yes 50th points is low end 2nd liner, but 29th in goals is low end 1st liner; when you combine that with his two-way ability he would be a second liner on a good chunk of NHL teams.

I never called Backlund a 47 point player, I said he is coming off a 47 point season and that he is a second liner. I have never disputed any Leafs fan calling the almighty JVR a first liner so I'm not sure what issue you are fabricating in your mind. Perhaps you should work on your reading comprehension before you call someone a hypocrite.

You criticized using "pace" as evidence that a guy is capable of a certain level of scoring, then said that he should have to accomplish it more than once to be labelled as a scorer of that level, then used Backlund's last year's point production as the primary evidence that he's a 2nd line centre while ignoring that it was 1) the best ppg of his career and 2) the only time he's had over 40pts. When pressured on it, you fell back to the "pace" which you had criticized one page earlier when not wanting to credit another team's player for their sustained level of scoring

That is hypocrisy by definition, I don't need to look outside of this thread for that to be true

I'm find with calling Backlund a 42 pt centre, and that is not definitive second line production, it's on the cusp of 2nd line production:
http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...r=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=points,goals,assists


And no, 29 goals is actually in the top 3rd to half of 1st line LW's depending on the year:
http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...=20152016&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=goals
http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...=20152016&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=goals
http://www.nhl.com/stats/player?agg...=20132014&filter=gamesPlayed,gte,1&sort=goals

Backlund doesn't jump off the page in Corsi or Fenwick metrics:
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...=50&teamid=6&type=corsi&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/rat...aters&minutes=50&disp=1&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC

He plays with fairly above average linemates:
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...5v5&f7=20-&c=0+1+3+5+11+12+13+14+15+16#snip=f

Against slightly above average competition:
http://www.behindthenet.ca/nhl_stat...5v5&f7=20-&c=0+1+3+5+11+12+13+14+15+16#snip=f

And he has a good relative effect on his linemates for shot generation/suppression metrics, that one's from corsica so you can look it up yourself.

If I'm acquiring Backlund to play on my 2nd line, I can only do that if I think I have guys who can carry him offensively, so I can't give him credit as a 2nd line centre. He's a very good 3rd line centre, or a 2nd line centre on a basement dwelling team. I think his skillset is also better suited to a shut down line

So maybe instead of accusing someone of not doing their homework you should do a little of your own, and if you don't want to be called a hypocrite don't say things that are hypocritical

FWIW, I am totally fine in giving credit to Backlund as a low to mid 40's points centre, and he might sustain a little higher if he had better linemates, but that doesn't fall clearly enough into the 2nd line production category to make me comfortable in acquiring him as one. If he ends up improving on his year last year to the 50pt range then sure that would make me feel more comfortable, but he hasn't done that yet.

Also, if you want to call Backlund a 42pt centre, you also have to call JVR a 30/30 guy (or 29.8/59.9, whatever it was) because those are the same thing - if you want to credit Backlund on his pace you have to credit JVR on the same

 

[Brock Radunske]

What I've learned from this thread is that Backlund is in the conversation for best player in the league. Step aside, Sid. There's a new kid in town. Sorry McDavid, you're going to have to wait.

 

[Lunatik]

What I've learned from this thread is that Backlund is in the conversation for best player in the league.

If that is what you got, I really feel sorry for you.

 

[Lunatik]

You criticized using "pace" as evidence that a guy is capable of a certain level of scoring, then said that he should have to accomplish it more than once to be labelled as a scorer of that level, then used Backlund's last year's point production as the primary evidence that he's a 2nd line centre while ignoring that it was 1) the best ppg of his career and 2) the only time he's had over 40pts. When pressured on it, you fell back to the "pace" which you had criticized one page earlier when not wanting to credit another team's player for their sustained level of scoring

That is hypocrisy by definition, I don't need to look outside of this thread for that to be true

I never once criticized using pace as evidence that a player is capable of reaching certain levels because I think it is a viable tool. I said it is a pet peeve to call someone "a ____ goal/point guy" when they have only reached it once, at which time you yourself pointed out it was nothing more that a disagreement in terminology. Now here you are trying to use it against me to call me a hypocrite? C'mon dude, that is just pathetic.

 

[Face Of Bear]

I wouldn't want any of those CGY players in the Leafs current top 12.

The fact that Flames fans are baulking at the proposal shows how out of touch they are with where their team is at right now.

 

[Randy Randerson]

I never once criticized using pace as evidence that a player is capable of reaching certain levels because I think it is a viable tool. I said it is a pet peeve to call someone "a ____ goal/point guy" when they have only reached it once, at which time you yourself pointed out it was nothing more that a disagreement in terminology. Now here you are trying to use it against me to call me a hypocrite? C'mon dude, that is just pathetic.

I'm not trying to twist anything here and its not my perogative to shame people on trade boards, but I think people should be consistent in how players are valued. It looks like you initially tried to say that pace wasn't a viable metric to determine what a guy is, that's the way what you said came off to me.

You've told me that I don't know what I'm talking about and that I should do my homework while I have backed up my position with metrics and situational context, and without offering any sort of evidence or homework of your own. And now you've called me pathetic for calling you on it - If I misunderstood that you only don't like a guy to be titled by the production level of his greatest achievement year as long as he continues that pace, then fair enough.

If you belive that pace is a viable tool, Backlund's point production pace over the last few years is not enough to call him a clear 2nd line centre, and I don't think the rest of the league will give him credit as one in a trade. He's a very good 3rd line centre

If you have any other evidence, I'm willing to be moved, but I don't see it and I think you're just over valuing your player

 

[Volica]

What I've learned from this thread is that Backlund is in the conversation for best player in the league. Step aside, Sid. There's a new kid in town. Sorry McDavid, you're going to have to wait.

Way to go way out of proportion with everything being said because Calgary likes their own player

This is like me saying:

What I've learned from this thread is that JVR is in the conversation for best Winger in the league. Step aside, Ovi. There's a new kid in town. Sorry Laine, you're going to have to wait.