Confirmed Trade: [TOR/STL/MIN] O'Reilly, Acciari, Pillar to TOR; Abramov, Gaudette, ‘23 1st, ‘23 3rd, ‘24 2nd to STL; ‘25 4th to MIN

[Transplanted Caper]

I do think O'Reilly is the right fit, provided he can stay healthy, and I think it's a trade - especially with Acciari added - that he'd make regardless of his own contract status. Like any GM, Dubas has had his hits and misses on trades, signings, and picks, but by and large I think he's been a good General Manager. He's well respected and liked internally, The results obviously haven't been there, but the process has been sound as he's filled gaps and done a good job balancing the line-up. Unfortunately, in a lot of ways, we live in a binary and black and white sports world where someone can only be perfect or bad with nothing in between. Things like this get amplified even more in Toronto. That said, if the Leafs lose in the first round again, he's likely out of a job. That's the reality in the business, and that's fine. If it happens though, he's sitting at another team's draft table by June, if he wants to. This won't be his first and only gig in this league.

 

[Iwishihadaspacebar]

If they don't turn up in the playoffs, at least one of their players on $6m+ gets moved, if not more.

 

[HockeyVirus]

And if they don't win, we'll just pay the big 4 more and hope that'll work.

If they don't win, they are in THE best position in the league to do as they wish. Tough to hear that I know, but the Leafs have the most cap flexibility out of any team contending for a cup going forward.

But if they do win, they are also in a good spot. I think they can retain their big three and ROR if they wanted. They could retool, rebuild, anything in between. Lots of good prospects almost NHL ready, good depth with the Marlies and good young pieces on D and in goal. Forwards are still going to be only 27 next year, they have at least 5+ years of a window left after this season.

Hard for Leaf haters to stomach that fact

 

[Gary Nylund]

Thank you for the clarification. English is not my first language or even my second. My regrets if my turn of phrase or the use of a popular expression caused offense.

My opinion stands. ROR is unlikely to give anyone a discount based on his previous contract negotiations with other teams and Toronto may have put all of its "eggs in one basket" in its belief that one player can make a difference.

No offense taken whatsoever, like I said, hundreds of people use the term, I just don't think it makes much sense.

I'd like to resign ROR and am not expecting a discount. It would be nice, but I'd be happy to pay a fair price, just not top UFA dollars.

Toronto still has a lot of eggs left, it's just a typical TDL move that contenders make almost every year.

Your English is excellent!

 

[I am Canadian]

Dubas didn't want knies for playoff last year and will probabky be the same thing this season...

Its leafs fan who wanted and still want him in playoff

Leafs tried to sign Knies last year and he opted in for another year in college.

But sure, go ahead and post non-sense as fact.

 

[TimeZone]

You mean like the Blues have done with Kyrou, Thomas, Fabbri, Oshie, Thompson?

Kyrou wasn't a first round pick, Thomas is quite literally the only late first there who still plays on their team.

4 late first rounders who turned into quality NHLers over the course of nearly two decades? I rest my case.

Your chances of playing 200+ games in the NHL being drafted in the back 10 picks of the first round are extremely low, the NHL massively overrated their Draft picks compared to other professional sports leagues.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

If they don't win, they are in THE best position in the league to do as they wish. Tough to hear that I know, but the Leafs have the most cap flexibility out of any team contending for a cup going forward.

But if they do win, they are also in a good spot. I think they can retain their big three and ROR if they wanted. They could retool, rebuild, anything in between. Lots of good prospects almost NHL ready, good depth with the Marlies and good young pieces on D and in goal. Forwards are still going to be only 27 next year, they have at least 5+ years of a window left after this season.

Hard for Leaf haters to stomach that fact

Can you give an estimated guess of how much the big 3 will want + ROR?
Plus Bunting's raise as well?

 

[AvroArrow]

Can you give an estimated guess of how much the big 3 will want + ROR?
Plus Bunting's raise as well?

Stay on topic, this thread is about the trade. Typical derailment

 

[Joe Sakic]

I don't know about the wild guy in here calling Dubas a top-5 GM.

But this is a good trade for the Leafs imo. ROR is not "finished". Has been snake bitten this year, the Blues are underperforming as a team. He has plenty left in the tank. Love the Acciari pickup as well.

My question to Leafs fans in, what is the expectation with the lineup now? Is JT or Matthews or ROR moving to wing? Or is ROR 3C?

 

[Gary Nylund]

Well they got 2 players actually, and they have tons of assets to make more moves if they wish. This isn't a Panthers all in or CBJ all in people are trying to pretend it is. They said the Leafs were all in when they moved a first + 3rd + for Foligno + Big Save Dave + D depth, and it wasn't then either.

They still have their top 5 prospects, they have future firsts, they have their young roster players and their core forwards. They are very much not all in. But I am happy they decided to bring in a legit player with reputation who has done it and won a Smythe and cup and is a strong playoff performer than bring in depth pieces that don't move the needle.

Great post. Like!

I do think O'Reilly is the right fit, provided he can stay healthy, and I think it's a trade - especially with Acciari added - that he'd make regardless of his own contract status. Like any GM, Dubas has had his hits and misses on trades, signings, and picks, but by and large I think he's been a good General Manager. He's well respected and liked internally, The results obviously haven't been there, but the process has been sound as he's filled gaps and done a good job balancing the line-up. Unfortunately, in a lot of ways, we live in a binary and black and white sports world where someone can only be perfect or bad with nothing in between. Things like this get amplified even more. That said, if the Leafs lose in the first round again, he's likely out of a job. That's the reality in the business, and that's fine. If it happens though, he's sitting at another team's draft table by June, if he wants to. This won't be his first and only gig in this league.

100% agreed, great post!

My ideal adds were ROR or Toews, didn't think we'd get either as Dubas said he wouldn't trade a 1st for rentals. The fact that he did is kind of cool, either he's capable of doing the unexpected which is good, or he has reason to believe that ROR will resign with the Leafs, also good.

Can you give an estimated guess of how much the big 3 will want + ROR?
Plus Bunting's raise as well?

Too early for these questions. First we try to win the cup, same as all the other playoff teams.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Can you give an estimated guess of how much the big 3 will want + ROR?
Plus Bunting's raise as well?

How could anyone answer that? They could all ask for market setting contracts or they could also see how much their contracts held back the team and take reasonable deals near their current cap hits.

What is for sure though is in 2 seasons having Marner + Matthews + Nylander at 30 million with a 90M salary cap is more than fine. Most likely they would have those 3 + Rielly + Liljegren + Sandin + Samsonov(depending on how the playoffs go) locked in for ~55 million.

Very reasonable numbers. At that point the main concern I guess would be replacing Brodie and Gio on defense who have aged out. But some smart UFA signings like Brodie or some deals like Muzzin again and the team can keep a competitive defense going.

Leafs are in real good shape. They just need to win some rounds to show this core deserves to be kept around and not retooled in the offseason.

 

[Menzinger]

Wasn’t Knies a second round pick and apparently now untouchable? A bit of a strange post.

Knies is clearly an outlier for a 2nd round pick though. Very few have as quick of a development path as he has gone through. Banking on the teams next 2nd to replicate that would be misguided.

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

am I the only one that thinks this trade stinks for Toronto? Someone with sanity please back me up here….

why would anybody back you though? yes they gave up picks but Knies is still here, Mintinen is still here, Niemela is still here, none of their top prospects were moved.

The 1st is a valuable piece but even that is still 3-5 years away and that's IF they make it.

You can't worry about 2026-2028 the window is open NOW.

you can always restock, right now it's all in time.

 

[Gary Nylund]

I miss the days when ROR was being run down as a player and wasn't even going to return a 1st much less a 1st+ and then extend ...

I'm pretty sure those days have gone nowhere - how that he's a Maple Leaf, he's nowhere near the player he was yesterday.

Good trade for STL. I thought they'd get a 1st and a small plus for ROR, looks like they did a bit better than that. Well done!

 

[HockeyVirus]

I don't know about the wild guy in here calling Dubas a top-5 GM.

But this is a good trade for the Leafs imo. ROR is not "finished". Has been snake bitten this year, the Blues are underperforming as a team. He has plenty left in the tank. Love the Acciari pickup as well.

My question to Leafs fans in, what is the expectation with the lineup now? Is JT or Matthews or ROR moving to wing? Or is ROR 3C?

We don't know. Dubas paid extra for exta retention so we currently have ~3M in cap space and if we moved Kerfoot in a deal which is likely IMO, that's 6.5 million. Enough for another big add. I doubt that piece is a rental knowing Dubas, and he might not even use it all. But I think there is another move coming.

If that piece is another top 6 forward then ROR is 3rd line center and the Leafs run 3 first lines. If that piece is a top 4 dman, it gets more complicated and one of our centers probably plays wing.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

How could anyone answer that? They could all ask for market setting contracts or they could also see how much their contracts held back the team and take reasonable deals near their current cap hits.

What is for sure though is in 2 seasons having Marner + Matthews + Nylander at 30 million with a 90M salary cap is more than fine. Most likely they would have those 3 + Rielly + Liljegren + Sandin + Samsonov(depending on how the playoffs go) locked in for ~55 million.

Very reasonable numbers. At that point the main concern I guess would be replacing Brodie and Gio on defense who have aged out. But some smart UFA signings like Brodie or some deals like Muzzin again and the team can keep a competitive defense going.

Leafs are in real good shape. They just need to win some rounds to show this core deserves to be kept around and not retooled in the offseason.

Just asking if you had some numbers in mind.
The big 3 cost a hair under 30 mil now so I'd bump that closer to $40 million.

AM - at least $13-14 mil?
MM - $12.5 to 13 mil?
WN- $9 to 9.5 mil?

Add Reilly at 7.5 mil. That's 4 players over half your cap.

ROR at $4 mil?

Enjoy the road ahead.

 

[PocketNines]

Kyrou wasn't a first round pick, Thomas is quite literally the only late first there who still plays on their team.

4 late first rounders who turned into quality NHLers over the course of nearly two decades? I rest my case.

Your chances if playing 100+ games in the NHL being drafted in the back 10 picks of the first round are extremely low, the NHL massively overrated their Draft picks compared to other professional sports leagues.

Quick reality check ...

2022 – pick 23 Jimmy "the Mignight Snuggler" Snuggerud (absolute home run)
2020 – pick 26 Jake Neighbours (going to be a player, probably a 7-8-9 forward)
2018 – pick 25 Dominik Bokk (traded him a year after draft with Edmundson for Faulk)
2017 – pick 20 Robert Thomas
2017 – pick 31 Klim Kostin (bad pick but is in the NHL)
2016 – pick 26 Tage Thompson
2016 – pick 35 Jordan Kyrou
2014 – pick 21 Robby Fabbri (career limited by injury)
2014 – pick 33 Ivan Barbashev

Before that Oshie, Perron, Berglund ... the Blues are pretty good in this range and we as fans are pretty confident in our scouts in this range

Imagine knowing how all those picks are faring and then arguing the Blues haven't gotten value!!

 

[BleedBlue14]

I disagree.

And for the record , my point was never about the last paragraph that you wrote. Obviously anyone can get injured. My point was the injury concerns were more than just the basic ones but more like the ones associated to Kane….ongoing nagging injuries

They aren’t though. The only games he’s missed is from the broken foot from blocking a shot.

 

[Byron Bitz]

The Acciari addition is telling Bobby Mcmann and Joey Anderson “look we gave you an audition and thought you looked ok but we don’t want to use you in the playoffs”.

 

[Stephen]

The best part is how people say ROR and Acciari aren't worth a 1st rounder, but *Barclay Goodrow* was worth that. Natch Blake Coleman.

Neither had won a Cup. Neither had been a Conn Smythe winner. Both were young NHL players trying to make their mark, and were unknown commodities.

But yeah... ROR isn't worth a 1st. FFS.

Yeah, it's not like we're the Islanders looking to add a 1C in trade. We have Matthews and Tavares ahead of ROR and would just need ROR to be a better version of Kerfoot at 3C or moonlighting on wing on the top two lines and we're in good shape. Have a Conn Smythe voice in the room and Acciari to give us some sandpaper and real personality on the 4th line.

Adding ROR, Acciari and possibly Knies once they graduate, the Leafs have just gotten one full line deeper meaning when healthy you won't even necessarily see Aston-Reese, Steeves, Simmonds, Anderson, McCann and the like unless they wanted to dress them.

 

[HockeyVirus]

Just asking if you had some numbers in mind.
The big 3 cost a hair under 30 mil now so I'd bump that closer to $40 million.

AM - at least $13-14 mil?
MM - $12.5 to 13 mil?
WN- $9 to 9.5 mil?

Add Reilly at 7.5 mil. That's 4 players over half your cap.

ROR at $4 mil?

Enjoy the road ahead.

Like I said, we have no idea what they want to take. Matthews could take 12 for all we know and he sets the ceiling if he does.

What is for sure though, is they can flip any of these guys for multiple firsts and blue chip prospects if they want at the draft or whereever. They are absolutely not in any shape or form in a bad spot. Having too many good players is not a bad position to be in no matter how hard you try.

Should say the same to you. Your team is back to being a bubble team again after an outlier season. Enjoy paying Barkov all that money to be a passenger most of the time and IR for half of the rest. Not to mention Ekblad.. LOL

 

[Zur En Arrh]

who said he did? I am just saying you can't claim that HF boards thinks that Knies has to be thrown in to get ROR becasue a few peoples opinions.

Now as for ROR being the second best defensive C after Bergeron is laughable. This isn't 2018, which is exaclty why Knies wasn't involved.

Wrong! Hf has wanted knies out of t.o. In every trade proposal all year. It's also funny that now that ror is a leaf(after hf claiming " knies has to be inculided" the ror isint what he used to be has started. Hahaha, never change hf. Matthews>>>drai ainec

 

[Budz]

This is a great trade... for Leafs-haters. There are two available players who REALLY could have improved the Leafs: Meier and Chychrun. They didn't have a realistic way to trade for either, but there was a chance. But that's gone now. A seriously diminished ROR looks sexy on paper but won't do much for them considering their holes on wing and D. Still out in the first, and now almost no draft picks to go along with a terrible prospect pool. All is right with the world.

[MOD]

We COULD still acquire either player, very easily.

 

[TimeZone]

Quick reality check ...

2022 – pick 23 Jimmy "the Mignight Snuggler" Snuggerud (absolute home run)
2020 – pick 26 Jake Neighbours (going to be a player, probably a 7-8-9 forward)
2018 – pick 25 Dominik Bokk (traded him a year after draft with Edmundson for Faulk)
2017 – pick 20 Robert Thomas
2017 – pick 31 Klim Kostin (bad pick but is in the NHL)
2016 – pick 26 Tage Thompson
2016 – pick 35 Jordan Kyrou
2014 – pick 21 Robby Fabbri (career limited by injury)
2014 – pick 33 Ivan Barbashev

Before that Oshie, Perron, Berglund ... the Blues are pretty good in this range and we as fans are pretty confident in our scouts in this range

Imagine knowing how all those picks are faring and then arguing the Blues haven't gotten value!!

Imagine calling a guy with 0 NHL games a "homerun", Jake Neighbors is also far from a sure thing.

Barbashev is a second round pick, as was Kyrou.

You have roughly a 15% chance of playing 200+ NHL games in the back half of round #1.

Of all the "value" you pointed out, there's literally one player listed among late first round draft picks who actively plays on your roster.

 

[Budz]

I don't know about the wild guy in here calling Dubas a top-5 GM.

But this is a good trade for the Leafs imo. ROR is not "finished". Has been snake bitten this year, the Blues are underperforming as a team. He has plenty left in the tank. Love the Acciari pickup as well.

My question to Leafs fans in, what is the expectation with the lineup now? Is JT or Matthews or ROR moving to wing? Or is ROR 3C?

We anticipate solidifying the 3C spot. With ROR.