Confirmed Trade: [TOR/STL/MIN] O'Reilly, Acciari, Pillar to TOR; Abramov, Gaudette, ‘23 1st, ‘23 3rd, ‘24 2nd to STL; ‘25 4th to MIN

Quick reality check ...

2022 – pick 23 Jimmy "the Mignight Snuggler" Snuggerud (absolute home run)
2020 – pick 26 Jake Neighbours (going to be a player, probably a 7-8-9 forward)
2018 – pick 25 Dominik Bokk (traded him a year after draft with Edmundson for Faulk)
2017 – pick 20 Robert Thomas
2017 – pick 31 Klim Kostin (bad pick but is in the NHL)
2016 – pick 26 Tage Thompson
2016 – pick 35 Jordan Kyrou
2014 – pick 21 Robby Fabbri (career limited by injury)
2014 – pick 33 Ivan Barbashev

Before that Oshie, Perron, Berglund ... the Blues are pretty good in this range and we as fans are pretty confident in our scouts in this range

Imagine knowing how all those picks are faring and then arguing the Blues haven't gotten value!!
Thank you so much for putting this list together. Blues fans know our scouts have recently hit in this area more often than not. I can not stand clowns that assume that a late first has no value because their team sucks at drafting.
 
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Like I said, we have no idea what they want to take. Matthews could take 12 for all we know and he sets the ceiling if he does.

What is for sure though, is they can flip any of these guys for multiple firsts and blue chip prospects if they want at the draft or whereever. They are absolutely not in any shape or form in a bad spot. Having too many good players is not a bad position to be in no matter how hard you try.

Should say the same to you. Your team is back to being a bubble team again after an outlier season. Enjoy paying Barkov all that money to be a passenger most of the time and IR for half of the rest. Not to mention Ekblad.. LOL

Just find it funny everything will work out in Toronto (which it doesn't) but other teams are all doom and gloom.
 
Best playoff beard on the team with Muzzin out?
How good of a play-off beard can you grow in under 2 weeks ( end of the 1 st round).

If Leaf fans want to see what their players look like in full grown playoff beards….. they should get their players to start growing their play-off beards now!
 
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Statistically Speaking: NHL Draft Pick Value - TSN.ca

People lie, data does not.

Draft picks are massively overrated in the NHL, I'm not a fan of the trade, but acting as if a late first round pick is some sort of general home run return is simply statistically incorrect in the overwhelming vast majority of cases.

Its sad I even need to post this in 2023.
The problem with your data comparison is it assumes that the selections are random. This doesn't follow because some scouting staffs are objectively better than others at identifying NHL talent. While the averages across the NHL may be true, the Blues are objectively well above that average.

Your use of data here is disingenuous at best because you're ignoring an objective, historical trend of success. If drafting was truly random, then scout staffs would be nothing more than chimpanzees throwing darts at a board. Data is a wonderful tool when given context.
 
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Knies is clearly an outlier for a 2nd round pick though. Very few have as quick of a development path as he has gone through. Banking on the teams next 2nd to replicate that would be misguided.
I disagree. Second round picks have significant value. Knies is not really much of an outlier as there have been significantly better players taken in the second round or later and he’s yet to prove himself at the NHL level.
I mean I get why some fans are happy with the deal but pretending that the Leafs gave up no significant assets here is incredibly disingenuous.
 
This trade is going to turn out terrible for them if they don’t do damage in the post season. And with Tampa and Boston practically locked in as their first two opponents there’s a good chance everyone is laughing at Toronto again come April.

Murray/Samsonov vs Vasey? Lol good f***ing luck.

This reeks of a desperate move from a GM who has spent his entire tenure not understanding where his teams weaknesses are.
What are you talking about? Although Tampa won last year it’s not like vasy destroyed them. Both teams matched up very well.
 
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Wrong! Hf has wanted knies out of t.o. In every trade proposal all year. It's also funny that now that ror is a leaf(after hf claiming " knies has to be inculided" the ror isint what he used to be has started. Hahaha, never change hf. Matthews>>>drai ainec
1. HF is filled with many different opinions and isn't a person.
2. matthew >>>>Drai ainec. WTF are you talking about? Why are you so mad at the world.

All I ever said originally is that HF doesn't just have one opinion. There are thousands upon thousands of differnet views in here and you've been going off talking about nonsense. I get you are mad that people are Leaf haters. BUt seriously. Just relax and enjoy the game.
Just be happy you got a really good player. lol
 
In one of the threads I stated there wouldn't be a 3d team and I was wrong about that. Now in fairness @RasmusAndersson there was an additional 1.25M salary on top of ROR's heading to Toronto which was not part of the original analysis and so a greater need was created. But I did say no third team and there was a third team, and I believe in accountability.

I'm pretty pleased with the return on the trade too because many people including quite a few Leaf fans who trashed ROR over and over have some owning up to do as well. A lot of them.
Ya totally fair, the benefit of the 3rd team was strictly for Toronto and had no value to St Louis, they just couldn’t retain the extra 25% that Toronto needed.

And I can’t wait either, I think it’s a great return for him and I can’t wait for Leafs fans who talked shit about ROR to eat their words. But even more importantly I can’t wait for the Bruins fans that said he was all washed up and has been regressing for multiple seasons to watch him up close in the playoffs when he helps dismantle their team. And I’m not a leafs fan
 
The problem with your data comparison is it assumes that the selections are random. This doesn't follow because some scouting staffs are objectively better than others at identifying NHL talent. While the averages across the NHL may be true, the Blues are objectively well above that average.

Your use of data here is disingenuous at best because you're ignoring a historical trend of success. If drafting was truly random then scout staffs would be nothing more than chimpanzees throwing darts at a board.

You should actually take the time to look into the Blues Draft history before posting.

Thompson and Thomas were homeruns, how about the rest of their picks in that range over the last 10-15 years? It's safe to assume those picks are anomalies, not the rule of thumb. And evidently the Blues weren't so high on Thompson either, as he was flipped without a second thought.

The proof is in the puddling

St. Louis Blues Draft History at hockeydb.com
 
Imagine calling a guy with 0 NHL games a "homerun", Jake Neighbors is also far from a sure thing.

Barbashev is a second round pick, as was Kyrou.

You have roughly a 15% chance of playing 200+ NHL games in the back half of round #1.

Of all the "value" you pointed out, there's literally one player listed among late first round draft picks who actively plays on your roster.
"WELL ACKTUALLY THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 31 AND 35 MAKE A HUGE DIFFERENCE"

Drop the corny debatelord schtick. There's 2 players on that list that isn't in the NHL right now and 1 was drafter last season and playing in the NCAA. There are 3 players with PPG seasons and 2 1Cs. There's value in those picks and the Amateur scouting department for the Blues has shown they can find that.
 

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