Confirmed with Link: [TOR/OTT] Matt Murray (25% retention), a 3rd in 2023 and a 7th in 2024 for Future Considerations.

[deprw]

the earlier team with rookies had 2 D-men with 50 point seasons.

this team put 10 additional points than the team with rookies on it. Most of it was due to natural progress of players that were drafted by previous regime (Matthews, Marner, Nylander).

blanket statements without context are uselss like the post you made

Natural progress and also not on the ELC contracts, which makes it harder to build as good roster as having three superstar ELCs. Those RFA contracts a side Dubas has been way better than JFJ, if that was the case. I'd just hope we couldn't compare him to JFJ, but this trade made it harder.

 

[Twine Tickler]

Your money is better spent handling to some homeless person. If this were stocks, the smart move is to short Murray, Shanny, Dubas, Keefe and the Leafs.

Ya I mean the expectation of Murray is incredibly low on here. But I also don't understand how anyone think Ilya Samsonov would be any better. He posted shittier numbers on a far better team and historically has not won shit.

There is a fairly good chance Matt Murray can rebound. He is going to be given a very good team to play behind, and every resource possible to get fully healthy.

I am not trying to suggest it is a sure thing. It is a risk, no doubt. But I really don't think it is as bad of a risk as carrying Mrazek into next year as our number 1, or giving Darcy Keumper the bag when he reported having eye sight issues this season....

lets try and support Matt, like it or not he is our guy.

 

[Nineteen67]

And who don’t we sign now because of this Murray money? Is Boosh gone?

They may as well just go with Woll as the back up at minimum wage and see if he can play.
Itll be interesting to see who goes in order for them to ice a team.

 

[DarkKnight]

I’ve never heard such universal scorn for a Dubas deal with the on air crowd, columnists during his tenure. Does say something.

 

[thewave]

I don't even know how Shanahan can look at this move and not fire Dubas on the spot. At the same time I wish I could hear the thoughts of the players. I can't imagine this is an inspiration like the Raptors got when they traded for Leonard (lol).

I think most people just upset that we didn't get more or atleast got him for 50% off.

That's where I'm at. At this point what's done is done and we wait to see what happens going forward.

I was kinda hoping for someone like Gibson but I guess we can roll with a reclamation project with our core players closing in on new contracts. This is a great big sheet show!

 

[Sypher04]

I think it’s worth mention that If Murray regains his form and can stay relatively healthy next year he’s the best goaltender Ottawa had by a good margin. That’s just a sizeable If.

 

[DarkKnight]

They may as well just go with Woll as the back up at minimum wage and see if he can play.
Itll be interesting to see who goes in order for them to ice a team.

That’s crazy though, given Murray’s durability. Imagine he goes down and Woll is it, that could go sideways real quick in Toronto. I’m assuming he gets another goalie.

 

[Future]

Not sure what the love affair is with Campbell. Nice guy, but not a dependable starter. Too up and down, likely due to his mental approach. A guy like that, who rides his emotions, is never going to achieve the ultimate prize.

The only positive with acquiring Murray is that we aren’t going to be the ones to lock up Campbell long-term.

 

[Sypher04]

I’ve never heard such universal scorn for a Dubas deal with the on air crowd, columnists during his tenure. Does say something.

I have to imagine this is the reaction they expected. I still think that they made the deal in spite of the very negative optics means that they see something here. Fingers crossed it pans out because I mean what else should a fan want lol

 

[ShaneFalco]

That’s crazy though, given Murray’s durability. Imagine he goes down and Woll is it, that could go sideways real quick in Toronto. I’m assuming he gets another goalie.

C'mon we still have Hutch!

 

[justashadowof]

I think most people just upset that we didn't get more or atleast got him for 50% off.

That's where I'm at. At this point what's done is done and we wait to see what happens going forward.

"We've lost 6 1st round playoff series in a row and have gotten weaker but we're powerless to do anything about it so why bother complaining?"

 

[aingefan]

Dubas did not have a 3rd pick to offer for Husso. It would have had to have been the Hawks second and that was a non-starter.

Sorry there are not many worse deals than Murray @ 4.68m. Dubas f***ed the pooch on this one.

But isn’t Husso making more money with more term and less track record?
And iirc, Georgiev hasn’t been great over the past two years?
I’m not saying I like this trade, don’t get me wrong. The fo likes the Murray risk more than I do, but I do endorse the term and AAV of this deal more than what’s looming in FA and has happened in the other goalie trades.
I’m happy the fo didn’t get swept into that market.

 

[disgruntleddave]

In the end, I hope leafs brass are really confident that they know what was going on to hurt Murray's play, and they feel confident they can resolve it.

Then it's a question on if he stays healthy.

I'm sad to see Jack go. I hope he does well, but also not too well.

 

[ToneDog]

Ya I mean the expectation of Murray is incredibly low on here. But I also don't understand how anyone think Ilya Samsonov would be any better. He posted shittier numbers on a far better team and historically has not won shit.

There is a fairly good chance Matt Murray can rebound. He is going to be given a very good team to play behind, and every resource possible to get fully healthy.

I am not trying to suggest it is a sure thing. It is a risk, no doubt. But I really don't think it is as bad of a risk as carrying Mrazek into next year as our number 1, or giving Darcy Keumper the bag when he reported having eye sight issues this season....

lets try and support Matt, like it or not he is our guy.

I look forward to watching Matt play and no ill will towards him but to make this team better we needed more retention in order to add a better backup and depth up front. At 4.68m he has to carry the mail and it is too big a risk for me. Dubas should have dug in like he did with the Oilers for that lousy pick for Hyman but he blinked.

 

[Antropovsky]

Awful trade given they didn't retain 50%. He basically traded down to get rid of an injury prone player and then acquired a 3rd and 7th for a more expensive injury prone goalie. They can't count on any more than 40 games for this guy, so they'll have to go spend 2.5-4m on another goalie, meaning kerfoot/holl have to go and be replaced with minimum salaries players. Awful asset management, acquired an awful player and made the team up front worse. What's his explanation? "Well he's from the soo... He's one of my boys". If he thinks he's getting 1-2m goalie that he can count on, good luck Kyle. Not going to happen. The state of this guys asset management.

I think Dubas was paying for the "killer instinct" here...I think Murray might be better in playoff hockey than he is int he season.. he inseated Fleury many years ago, who many want still. If he can put his injuries behind him than I think this is really as good as it gets when you have limited space like we do. 6'4, former 3rd round pick, a top level goalie at every level he's played, two stanley cups, only 28 years old, less than 5 million per year, gaining assets to take him instead of paying more assets. Avalanche just signed Georgiev for 3 years and 3.5 million. He's 6'1, never drafted and didn't break the .900 save % last season.

Also looks like alot of Murray's previous problems were due to injuries rather than him just plain sucking... which if he runs into injures again, we will just put him on IR. Rather than have a healthy goalie that just sucks and dead cap space. Like someone pointed out... his expected saves % was better than any leaf goalies (or whatever that stat was).

I'm OK with this risk...

 

[Sypher04]

I don't even know how Shanahan can look at this move and not fire Dubas on the spot. At the same time I wish I could hear the thoughts of the players. I can't imagine this is an inspiration like the Raptors got when they traded for Leonard (lol).


I was kinda hoping for someone like Gibson but I guess we can roll with a reclamation project with our core players closing in on new contracts. This is a great big sheet show!

You know Shanahan is literally involved in all these discussions right?

 

[thewave]

I’ve never heard such universal scorn for a Dubas deal with the on air crowd, columnists during his tenure. Does say something.

In any other market, Dubas would have been canned years ago. This is at the point of being some sort of cosmic anomaly and there is no rationalizing it all things considered. Dubas is a multi train wreck which has set off a tire fire off to the side, on top of it, probably went sideways into a subdivision too.

 

[DarkKnight]

I have to imagine this is the reaction they expected. I still think that they made the deal in spite of the very negative optics means that they see something here. Fingers crossed it pans out because I mean what else should a fan want lol

I mean, when the puck drops I’ll be cheering for the team. It just shakes your confidence further.

 

[Trapper]

Dubas did not have a 3rd pick to offer for Husso. It would have had to have been the Hawks second and that was a non-starter.

Sorry there are not many worse deals than Murray @ 4.68m. Dubas f***ed the pooch on this one.

As long as this is his last kick at the can, go for it.
If it works, great.
If it fails, get him out. I can’t take him coming back if this doesn’t work.

 

[ToneDog]

I think Dubas was paying for the "killer instinct" here...I think Murray might be better in playoff hockey than he is int he season.. he inseated Fleury many years ago, who many want still. If he can put his injuries behind him than I think this is really as good as it gets when you have limited space like we do. 6'4, former 3rd round pick, a top level goalie at every level he's played, two stanley cups, only 28 years old, less than 5 million per year, gaining assets to take him instead of paying more assets. Avalanche just signed Georgiev for 3 years and 3.5 million. He's 6'1, never drafted and didn't break the .900 save % last season.

Also looks like alot of Murray's previous problems were due to injuries rather than him just plain sucking... which if he runs into injures again, we will just put him on IR. Rather than have a healthy goalie that just sucks and dead cap space. Like someone pointed out... his expected saves % was better than any leaf goalies (or whatever that stat was).

I'm OK with this risk...

So let's Kutcherov him. That makes the deal a winner.

 

[LeafGrief]

Cannot say I am buying the justification about term. As much of a joke as this team is, we have a good roster of skaters and we are trying to win a cup every year. Yeah, it would be nice to win a round first, but let's keep our eyes on what the actual objective of team building is. Build the best team to give yourself the best chance to win.

Choosing to go with a reclamation project for two years at the expense of having a better goalie in net is putting the contract needs of 2024/25 ahead of our winning now. Talk about putting the cart in front of the horse, every single year of Matthews and Marner's careers in Leafs jerseys is worth trying our best in. The only way this deal works is if Murray is legit. If he blows up then it costs us another year wasted. There is so much opportunity cost involved here. The player is cheap, but the stakes are very high.

Either way, the deal itself is awful value. Cannot believe we didn't get 50% retention. The only real explanation to any of this is that Dubas believes Murray can be the answer in net. Quite the bet to stake your job on.

 

[hotpaws]

I’m not even saying anything good about the trade. I’ve said repeatedly we needed to get more retention than this. I’ve just also said that the jury is out overall until he actually plays for the Leafs.

The lack of more retention is what makes this not a win imo. But an outright loss, when you got the player, 2 picks and 25% still of retention.

I’m a firm believer that you cannot lose a trade where all you gave up was future considerations aka nothing.

And I couldn’t be less interested what Sens fans think.

The goal was to improve the team , not to take sweeteners first dumps .

Dubas just blew almost 5m in cap on a guy who cleared waivers last season and has been put on the ir 7 times the last 2 seasons .

That’s a massive loss especially considering Ottawa was willing that pay more for Buffalo to take him.

 

[Sypher04]

We do very much still need a second, reliable goaltender. Kallgren and Woll should be the third string options

 

[bentharbs]

In fairness Murray didnt cost them anything but cap space

For a cap team, I personally view cap space. They are paying Ottawa in cap space.

But I take your point!

 

[Strangle]

Actually it makes perfect sense. But you come out saying we got a starting goalie for free. Anyone who is of that viewpoint is a complete moron.

The reason being is that there is always an opportunity cost of acquiring a player, especially one with as many concerns as Matt murray. You said we didn't pay anything at first to acquire murray, and now you're moving goal posts and saying yeah we did pay a 3rd to move mraz to get murray, which is something you clearly missed previously. You are STILL not accounting for the fact that we got less than what buffalo was getting. That means we bought an asset for more than its previously decided market value.

And you're right, you can be successful if you flunked out of high school, but you definitely won't be if you can't understand basic market value, risk and reward and opportunity cost principles. Smh.

Look man, I can insult you as much as you’re trying to insult me, but I’ll try not to.

I don’t like this as a trade, but to say something like “it’s like offering $500k over asking on a house that only can be sold to you” is just fantasy.

How do you keep mrazek and aquire a starting goaltender? That’s the opportunity cost, you’re arguing about. We should have been given more for Murray, because we gave up assets to move mrazek. And because Buffalo would have gotten more. Except Buffalo isn’t desperate for a goalie in the same way toronto is.

Buffalo would have gotten the same retention and the difference between a second and a third. Which isn’t the same as $500k above asking price on a house purchase.

If you don’t trade mrazek, and since you’re so smart, what goalie do you bring in? Or do you simply stand pat with mrazek and kallgren? Those are the realities of the situation. Dubas isn’t “a moron” because he couldn’t get what amounts to the value of like a 5th round pick at the end of the day (Buffalo moving up in the draft is equivalent to a 2nd in value, Dubas got a 3rd and a 7th, and the difference between the 2nd in value that Buffalo got and the 3rd that Toronto got is somewhere around a 5th round pick).

Dubas also (it seems) thinks Murray is the best goalie available that he can fit under the cap. So he’s not going to walk away over that value difference (which is tiny to begin with) and go with what he thinks is a talent drop off, and I wouldn’t want him to.

Now I don’t like the trade, but this is what Dubas and his team evaluated as the best talent he could put between the pipes. As well as the question of term. Who else is that good (potentially) who won’t demand 5-6 years on the cap?

Would I do something drastic? Would I trade Marner or Nylander to kick the cap door wide open and make a more permanent solution in net? Maybe? I dunno.

You took one shitty college course from some online certificate farming scam ‘university’ and you think you can just ignore all the realities of the situation and all of the complexities and call everyone out for being stupider than you over the value of a5th round pick?

All that matters is if Murray is good and healthy and consistent and that he’s only signed for two years. All of that, especially the term, also comes with a price.

The biggest price of all, and the most valuable is the 25% retention. Would 50 have been better? Sure, but obviously that wasn’t going to happen. Ottawa would rather move down from a top 10 pick to not retain 50%